Predictions 2019

I'm responding to post 695 in the NDP Leadership thread.

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-leadership-race-2?page=7#new

My prediction is that neither the issue of electoral reforms or "lies" or "broken promises" will impact Trudeau significantly in 2019. I believe he will still get a majority and if the NDP gain at all it will only be by a few points and that only with a strong leader.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

There are also people for whom it matters very much. For them it will not die down. We really have no way of knowing how many there are of people like this.

We can make an educated guess from the number of people who responded to the online questions that Canadians are not particularly engaged on the topic.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

1) Strategic voting: if strategic voting sites play a role in the next election, they will certainly remind voters about this broken promise.

Strategic voting is an NDP fantasy narrative. Trudeau's numbers rose after the election. If people had only voted for him strategically the NDP numbers would have bounced back up at least a little. Instead they dropped further. They may be a bit higher now but not enough to prove votes for Trudeau were strategic.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

2) Opposition party messaging: If the Liberals perform badly this is sure to come up and stick as the tide turns against the. If they perform well there is a greater likelihood that the Green and NDP opposition will pin more on making this an issue. In other words no matter what the situation is at the time opposition parties will want to make this a big deal. If the NDP decided to run campaign ads on the issue to keep their supporters from rewarding the Liberals this will come up significantly. I see no reason why they would not do this. While the Greens do not have as much reach in many parts of the country, I think you can bet on them making this an issue as much as they can. While the CPC are happy with this, it does not mean they will not use it to hurt the Liebrals and remind NDP voters why they should not gang up with the Liberals. 

What voters care about is not up to the opposition parties, or the government in power for that matter, nor journalists. Which NDP supporters are you talking about? The Liberals don't need NDP supporters. They will appeal to Liberal supporters.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

3) Liberal messaging to NDP voters: While it may matter less to voters leaning Liberal it may to those trying to decide and it may stall any effort by the Liberals to ask the NDP to "lend them their vote." In recent years electoral reform has been tied both by the NDP and the Liberals to that message when the Liberals raise it.

Trudeau specifically rejected strategic voting. The Liberals are going to run on their record with an emphasis on the economy. They are going to have fantastic campaign material of Trudeau being praised world wide on economic policy as well as on other issues. Historically there are very few 1 term PMs. Canadians like stability. Nothing is ever certain but if I had to lay a bet it would be a second majority for Trudeau and likely a 3rd term too. There will be no sponsorship scandal, no attempts at paying off senators. Even after that Harper had the lead at one point during the election campaign.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

4) The media: Journalists from both right and left have been harsh in condemning the Liberals on this. It is likely even if the public forget, the media may remind them. During the election the media is desperate for daily stories and this is too obvious to miss.

The media pilloried Trump but he still won. The media is struggling not to go under because so few people read newspapers or watch TV. People especially don't read about or listen to news stories that don't interest them. Electoral reform will not be a hot topic at the water cooler. In 2015 the deciding factor was the economy backed up with a solid team and Trudeau's personal appeal. The economy is always the number one issue.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

It may also be the elephant in the room. The Liberals, in a tight election with the Conservatives, may choose to not go with the strategy to herd NDP voters out of a justified fear that this could attract attention to the issue, as I believe it would. The dynamic and result of the election could be different because of this. It is possible the Liberals have effectively neutralized their weapon of desperation against the NDP. 

Where were these NDP voters in 2015? When NDP votes increased in 2011 under Layton it didn't mean those people were suddenly transformed into "NDP voters". Likewise the voters that went Liberal in 2015 are not "Liberal voters" They are simply voters who chose Trudeau over Mulcair and Harper. Had he been running against other leaders he might have lost. If either the Conservatives or NDP come up with a fabulous leader and platform Trudeau could certainly lose but he will be difficult to beat. He will have plenty of goodies to hand out and lots to brag about. Expect lots of pictures with refugees beaming at him.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The last variable would be how extreme (scary) the Conservative candidate(s) are to centre left voters.

There is no large contingent of Canadians who consider themselves centre left. Most consider themselves swing voters and are open to voting for more than one party. People didn't vote Liberal in 2015 most voted for Trudeau. I'm predicting another majority for Trudeau in 2019 but without Trudeau all bets would be off. My assessment of a party's chances is based entirely on the leader.

This goes back to the theory that people voted Trudeau strategically. There is no evidence of that. If the Conservative candidate is really scary the Conservatives will lose some votes to Trudeau and/or whomever is leading the NDP.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

  If they go with a nasty candidate, as seems likely, they will remind the population of FPTP, false majorities and this broken promise.

The population is not up in arms over FPTP and they expect broken promises.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

All in all, I think there is more of a chance that this will blow up in the next election than it not blowing up. There are too many reasons and ways it can and too many with an interest in making that happen.

It could backfire. Angrily focusing on an issue that is not particularly important to voters can be a real turn-off.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Liberals might think optimistically that they could avoid this being a significant issue. But for that to happen, two of the opposition parties woldl have to be totally incompetent and the media would have to not do its job. I would not bet on that.

Just because political parties and/or journalists think something is important doesn't mean the electorate will agree that it is. C 51 was/is a much bigger deal in terms of public awareness and opposition.

The only hope I see for the NDP is if they turn left under a leader that can argue on economic grounds. Talk about the P3 economic rip off and the poison pills in trade deals. Talk about  the right of Canadians to reject pipelines.