NDP leadership race 4

Anyone who didn't win, lost.  It only seems more profound that, say, Clinton lost because it was so widely assumed that she wouldn't.  But that wasn't the electorate rejecting "centrism", it was the electorate (or at least the Electoral College)  endorsing Trumpism.

Why did Corbyn and Sanders lose?  Was it because the PLC and the DNC respectively did not have their backs?  I would think that as "outsiders", the very last thing they could want would be "the establishment" blessing them.  If the establishment labelled them the "balanced leaders who can bring a much needed compromise to politics" then it would have been the end of them.  Whatever they might have gained from the dismissible "centre" they'd have lost from the fringes who can't support a sell-out.

I think Belanger is right when he says:

Quote:

Cleary the equation to attract the young electorate is not simply hard left or bust. That’s wishful thinking.

Maybe he's only reciting that to please his corporate paymasters or whatever, but he's right.  If nationalized barbershops were the clear ticket to winning over the electorate and taking power then it would have just happened regardless if the corporate media, or corporations, or trillionaires disapprove.

 

brookmere wrote:

Obama managed to win two terms by attracting the young electorate among others, and he is certainly a centrist. Had HRC simply held on to Obama's vote from the previous election she would have beaten Trump in a walk .Trump got fewer votes than Romney did, so I wouldn't say "Trumpism" is why HRC lost.

HRC lost because she was a lousy candidate who ran a lousy campaign.

Actually, Trump got 2 million more than Romney and Clinton nearly equaled Obama's total.  However she fell about 4 million short of his 2008 number.

 

Jagmeet Singh is getting his first endorsement from a sitting MP, BC's Randall Garrison.

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ndp-leadership-hopeful-jagmeet-sin...

josh wrote:

Actually, Trump got 2 million more than Romney and Clinton nearly equaled Obama's total.

My mistake. However, if HRC had equalled Obama's 2012 tally just in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania she would have won the election.

Peculiar that there have already been debates, and yet also new candidates.

Seems a bit like letting runners join a marathon late, at the 13-mile mark.

Quote:

That said, if new candidates were to step in now I'd rather they represent a bit more diversity

Well, a resource-extraction magnate and a member of the Socialist Caucus... not diverse in all ways, but not exactly homogenous either.

 

Some good general analysis of where the leadership race stands on CBC Pollcast -- host Éric Grenier is joined by NDP insiders Sally Housser of Navigator and Robin MacLachlan of Summa Strategies.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-maclachlan-housser-1.41...

WWWTT wrote:

Thanks for reminding me that leaving the ndp was a good solid decision! Someone from the pro Justin Trudeau huffington post?!?!?! Ya I don't have any regrets.

you're so funny in this comment. i laughed out loud.

using someone who may or may not be joining the leadership race - who may or may not be a Justin supporter -  as a confirmation bias on what a good choice you made is hilarious.

 

Well, the deadline to enter the race has hit, adn it seems those other potential entrants didn't make the cut, so we're staying with the 5 already in the race. Good. 

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/07/03/deadline-to-declare-for-ndp-...

Josh, I think you're right about Ashton being underestimated in that CBC discussion, but I'm not so sure about Julian. I have a feeling he's still going to be on the bottom. Of course it's hard to know where they really stand, but the last fundraising period has ended and new numbers will be coming at the end of this month which should give us a good indication of how they rank. Perhaps some polling companies will try to get in on the action after those new fundraising numbers come out?

Don't forget to thank WikiLeaks.  And of course the Ebola virus that she lied about being infected with. 

R.E.Wood wrote:

Well, the deadline to enter the race has hit, adn it seems those other potential entrants didn't make the cut, so we're staying with the 5 already in the race. Good. 

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/07/03/deadline-to-declare-for-ndp-...

Josh, I think you're right about Ashton being underestimated in that CBC discussion, but I'm not so sure about Julian. I have a feeling he's still going to be on the bottom. Of course it's hard to know where they really stand, but the last fundraising period has ended and new numbers will be coming at the end of this month which should give us a good indication of how they rank. Perhaps some polling companies will try to get in on the action after those new fundraising numbers come out?

The NDP membership is far different than the members here.  One thing to keep in mind.  

Ashton turns a lot of people off.  I have spoken to many who find her abrasive and robotic.  And for the record, majority were women including an NDP MLA.  She's not an appealing candidate.  It's like she's programed with left talking points.  She may say the right things to many New Democrats but the question is will she connect to everyday voters in 2019?  I would venture to guess not.  So while she may tickle the fancy of the socialist left, I doubt she will to families looking for a leader that talks about kitchen table, bread and butter issues that wins elections.

Hi Michael Moriarity I agree with you somewhat but also not and I definitely don't agree with the whole laughing thing. But to each their own I guess. I find many people in the ndp have this revisionist history when talking about Jack 2011 and the orange wave. The way I remember it, Jack was Canadians second choice to Harper thanks to the implosion of Ignatieff. Since the liberals frequently adopt ndp policies and now focus on cosmetics over substance to appeal to voters, the ndp are left with being a party with pockets of support across Canada. Trying to do this liberal cosmetic cat walk fashion politics thing works good when the liberal media (CBC) bends its ass over backwards photo chopping. Obviously the liberal media isn't going to give the ndp shit, so why bother sacrificing your base?

Hey brother if you don't disagree with my comment above than we probably have more in agreement than what I initially thought. Sorry but it's sometimes hard for me to write in depth comments because of the time I have to exhaust to do so. My wife gets pissed off at me and sometimes it feels like I'm cheating for some reason? If I focus too long in writing a comment for sure one of my three toddlers will get into something and my wife will be yelling. Anyways, I think that mulcairs lust to hang on to power really hurt the centralist movement within the ndp. Hopefully The members will move back to the grassroots fabric that the ndp is famous for but forgotten in the last decade. 

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

NDP needs to remember that it is really the centrists and 'Third Way' that lost in the US and UK

In what can only be read as a rather defensive and bizarre apologia for the NDP's election strategy catastrophe in 2015, former National Director of the NDP Karl Bélanger has penned an op-ed (in the Toronto Sun no less!) called "NDP needs to remember that Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders lost". It is the saddest attempt that I have seen to date from a Canadian 'progressive' to downplay and minimize exactly what it is that Corbyn recently accomplished in the UK....

Karl, a key player in the 2011 Orange Wave with Jack Layton, is right.  What has he written that is inaccurate?  Nothing.

For the record, Corbyn lost.  And the Tories won 55 more seats than he did.  He lost in the face of a disastrous campaign by May that be was the beneficiary of.  Even in the face of that she managed to bump up her vote by almost six points.  He did better than most predicted.  I would suggest it was May and also a rather moderate Labour manifesto that gave him a boost.  Along with a disciplined campaign where he stuck to the script.

I guess you must have forgotten that Mulcair and Horwath lost.  Both trying to outLiberal the Liberals.

R.E.Wood wrote:

ETA: I also don't get regional block voting. It's stupid. Who cares if the best candidate comes from BC or Ontario or Quebec or Manitoba or anywhere... Where they come from has no bearing on their ability to be leader, and if BC people are going to vote for Julian because he's also from BC, then they're making the decision for the wrong reasons (same going for any other regional block).

I guess it is in how one defines the "best" candidate. If that includes a passionate committment to BC's environment then Peter is heads above the others. Its like anything else if two people are reasonably equal then most people chose the person that is most likely to represent their interests the best because they understand them the best. Frankly I think that a few of the candidates would have a hard time locating the Salish sea.

I also don't get regional block voting

In a Canada-wide one member one vote contest, regional support per se means nothing. I think Singh is likely to outpoll Julian even in BC alone. Not saying he should, but you have to pay attention to how the machines work.

My general thoughts on the race as far as preferences so far based on the debate, meeting all the candidates (except Jagmeet) in Montreal and their platforms:

1. Peter Julian
2. Guy Caron
3. Charlie Angus
4. Jagmeet Singh
5. Niki Ashton

Peter Julian and Guy Caron have the most detailed and comprehensive platforms thus far and I would be happy with either of them as leader and think that both would increase the number of NDP seats, but I put Peter Julian ahead because of his focus on climate change. I love that Julian has been clearly against the bitumen pipelines and for free university tuition. The clarity with which Guy Caron discusses and presents his tax reform plan is appealing, definitely a progressive and well thought out plan. While Julian started off very stiff and slow he has gotten better in the most recent debates and showed some fight, he started off as my least favorite candidate and has impressed me to the point that I gave him a donation (which is a first for me in terms of giving to a specific candidate rather than party.)

I liked Charlie Angus initially, but his evasiveness is getting tiring. For example, in one of the first debates he was asked which system of voting he would prefer. His answer, we'll need to win a majority to change the voting system. All the other candidates answered except for him and to this day I don't know what he supports. That constant "I'm an all Canadian small town guy" shtick he pulls whenever he is pushed by a questioner is also wearing thin. I like his focus on indigenous issues, but hate that he puts down the ambitious policy positions of others whenever he gets the chance using the "how will we pay for it" conservative framing, as well as his tacit support of the pipelines. As a Quebecer, he clearly has the worst French of the lot, worse than Harper and worse than Elizabeth May.

Jagmeet Singh is also evasive much like Angus and the way he has set up his campaign just comes off as the NDP brass trying to install our version of Justin Trudeau. Electing him would be fighting the last campaign. We don't need our version of Trudeau, those who like Trudeau will vote for Trudeau and not our copy. We need a principled progressive. I just recently saw Singh's response to the Ontario Liberal sex ed plan and was really put off by it, I guarantee the Liberals already have a bunch of messaging on his sex ed views in the holster should he win.

Niki Ashton just projects fakeness to me and I really don't get the appeal. She says all the right things, but comes off as inauthentic and just trying to prove that she is the most left of the bunch.

Good job pietro sounds like you did some real homework but from your own comments it sounds like you're giving Niki too low of a ranking. It sounds like you would rank her 3rd and oddly rank her 5th???? Niki also speaks Spanish! This has importance to me because of the cultural jump she has proven she is not afraid to make. This is also appealing to expanding ndp base. I wish the ndp the best of luck

Michael Moriarity wrote:

I'm having a hard time controlling my laughter after reading posts 121 and 122. Hunky_Monkey seems to think that nothing has changed since 2011, and that trotting out the Layton platform one more time will be the charm. Good luck with that, pal.

"But Bernie and Corbyn lost", he wails, as if they didn't each ignite an explosion of political activity by previously uninvolved citizens. An explosion the consequences of which in the U.S. and U.K. are yet to be determined. The big thing they have in common is that they made an offer to voters which included breaking the neo-liberal economic rules in ways that were considered "politically impossible" by people like Hunky_Monkey until actual elections proved that they have huge appeal to many people who had previously given up on politics.

None of these things would ever have happened if the so-called moderate left had been able to prevent it. If they get to choose who the next NDP leader is, we can forget about anything interesting happening in the next federal election. They think that Jagmeet can out-Justin Justin, but they can't imagine actual issues motivating anybody but the "socialist left". Follow these guys, and you might as well join the LPC.

There's far more to elections than thinking you can run on a far left socialist platform and every voter will come running.  That gives me the biggest laugh at people like yourself living in a bubble.  And now things have changed since 2011?  I thought things have changed since the worldwide recession?  You keep moving the goal posts since Jack's growth under a banal platform was post worldwide recession.  Interesting. 

For the record, I never said anything about rehashing Jack's platform.  Nice try.  Nice assumption. 

Oh, btw, Corbyn actually toned down a lot of his old rhetoric.  Why?  And oh, his platform didn't even commit to restoring Tory cuts to welfare.  Just shameful, right?

Christ lol.

Peter Julian to quit NDP leadership race

Yeah I am disappointed too.  It seemed like Julian was getting better every debate.

Peter Julian‏

It's with mixed feelings that I'm announcing my withdrawal from #NDPldr race – fund-raising results have been disappointing. #NDP #cdnpoli

I assume his fundraising numbers will come out, along with all the rest, later this month... His numbers must have been very low, indeed, to prompt his withdrawal. Pogo's comment (up in post #127) about Julian's supposed regional advantage obviously didn't play a factor. I felt all along that Julian was bland, a poor performer on stage (although he was getting better), and not able to connect with people on a broad basis, let alone get them excited. But he certainly added to the debates and the campaign, so I'm sorry to see him bow out. 

Here's a mock online vote:  

http://demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=ndp2017

They're the two best left.  ABS.