2017 NDP Leadership Race Predictions

progressive17 wrote:

Because of the low NDP membership numbers in Quebec, that means fewer (as a percentage of the whole) are likely to vote for Caron, and more are likely to vote for Singh. If he really has signed up that many NDP members, Singh probably has it in the bag.

Singh also has advantages over Ashton and Angus, because he is from a big urban centre, and they are not. So it would be more likely Singh could put together a regionalized base of support.

Singh's being from an identifiable minority is more of an advantage than a disadvantage in my view, and his standing up for the Charter of Rights will sit well with many Canadians.

First or second ballot win for Singh.

Bingo!

pietro_bcc wrote:

JKR wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

1. Angus 2. Ashton 3. Singh 4. Caron 1, 2 and 3 are all bunched up at high 20's to low 30's, Caron is far behind in the low teens. No real telling what happens after the first round, the week between the first and second round and the scramble for Caron's votes will be a blood bath.

I find it hard to believe that Singh could have signed up 47,000 members and still be in 3rd place. I guess it depends on how well Singh gets his sign-ups vote-out.

Singh's number just don't make sense to me. As of August 2nd according to Elections Canada documents (the one data set that is free of campaign spin) Angus had more individual donors to his campaign. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-singh-fundraising-1.4230573 While these are 2 different numbers (sign ups vs donations, which are two different categories) it is fair to assume that a member who had been signed up by Singh would be as likely to donate to him, as an Angus signup would be to donate to Angus.

But if Singh indeed signed up 47000 members out of the 83000 that were signed up during the leadership race (I subtracted the 41000 pre-existing members.) That would mean Angus, Ashton and Caron would've signed up 36000 collectively (even less because that doesn't take into account people who signed up on the NDP site in support of no candidate or those who joined in support of a candidate who dropped out). Say Angus blew the other two out of the water and signed up 20000 on his own.

I find it hard to believe that Singh would more than double the amount of signups done by Angus (47000 vs 20000) yet still lose to Angus on number of individual donors. Makes no sense at all.

And now there's the accusation that Singh's numbers are inaccurate.

Apparently, Singh's numbers were accurate, pietro_bcc.