2018 Ontario Polls

josh wrote:

And how much worse had it been governed by the Reformatories.

So both of those parties are horrible.  And since there is no longer any possible way to argue that the Liberals could win but the NDP can't, the argument that progressives HAVE to vote Liberal to stop Doug Ford is totally discredited.  The only argument that has existed for voting Liberal in Ontario elections since the Nineties was the notion that they could beat the PC's and the NDP can't-the argument for voting Liberal was never about anything BUT "strategy".  There was no principled case for voting for that party at all in the post-1996 era. 

So IF, as now appears to be a certainty, the Liberals can't beat the PC's, what argument is there for any progressive-minded people to vote Liberal instead of NDP this year?  There are now essentially NO Liberal-PC marginals in this election.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The media has it wrong. These polls are not increasing Ford's chance of winning. Theya re decreasing it.

Only problem is that former NDP voters have moved from Horwath to Ford, and there is no sign that they plan to switch back to the NDP. As written in the Toronto Star yesterday

Ford is pulling votes from both Liberal and NDP supporters, which has him leading in the polls. And they seem unmoveable to move back to either the Liberal or NDP camp. Which is the whole point of the article.

What should concern Premier Kathleen Wynne and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath – as polls consistently suggest Ford enjoys support in majority government territory – is how immoveable those drawn to populists are once committed.

“Once they’ve made a decision they have a hard time admitting they’re wrong,” he said.

Ya I would take the Toronto star with a huge grain of salt. They’re huge liberal supporters. 

Its numerically obvious that the Ford numbers have to do with liberal supporters jumping on board. 

I think suggesting the ONDP supporters are boosting conservative numbers is a game to hide the lack of ethical value many liberal supporters have. 

He does that all the time.

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Why don’t we get international observers to insure the election coverage is not rigged?

That's funny.

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Too late for that!

But that's even funnier!

Ya, it's about six weeks away, and already the ballot boxes are being stuffed with the fake ballots.  We missed our chance!!!

Nanos:  PC 42 L 31 NDP 21 G 5

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-1150-OREA-Wave-2-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

<a href="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</a> wrote:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-po...

I'm hopeful that this poll is accurate, but cautious about Liberal Don Guy being behind it and starting a bogus trend toward Liberal momemtum later in the campaign.

PC 40

NDP 30

L 23

I think the second choice picks in the Maclean's poll are very interesting. The NDP clearly has the most room to grow. This election could be very interesting.

NDP    33
Green  16
PC      11
Lib     11

In 1992, for a brief window, Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan, and Yukon all simultaneously had an NDP premier. (I'd thought there was overlap with Doer, making 5, but according to Wikipedia, he didn't come in until after Rae was defeated.)

We're including territories, right?

Any theories as to why the Nanos poll was such an outlier, compared to all the others?

If Horwath runs a good campaign she is in a great position to win with a quite left-wing agenda as the NDP leads in "accessible voters" with 62% to the Cons 54% to the Liberals 46%. At 46%, the Liberals would have to win 85% of accessible voters to have a chance of winning, a very challenging task. 

The NDP’s pool of accessible voters has grown while the PC pool has shrunk. The Ontario NDP now has the largest pool of accessible voters (62%), growing 4 points since our first wave. The PC pool is down 5 to 54% while the Liberal pool marginally increased by 2 points to 46%.

http://www.onpulse.ca/blog/new-data-as-first-debate-looms-ford-and-pcs-d...

Is it safe to say yet that the polls getting posted in this thread at least show an ONDP official opposition?

Also the momentum, I’m interpreting this as an ONDP minority government if it continues. 

I believe an ONDP minority government would be better for socialism than a majority. But perhaps I’ll just stick with poll related comments for now

WWWTT wrote:

Ya I would take the Toronto star with a huge grain of salt. They’re huge liberal supporters. 

Its numerically obvious that the Ford numbers have to do with liberal supporters jumping on board. 

I think suggesting the ONDP supporters are boosting conservative numbers is a game to hide the lack of ethical value many liberal supporters have. 

So are you saying that Ford is attracting ZERO NDP supporters? That it is all Liberals supporting Ford.

Because in this latest poll it shows Ford attracting 20% of NDP supporters

One thing that is interesting is that everyone is cheerleading for Forum, which shows the NDP moving up. This is the same polling firm many on this board have said is just an extension of the Liberal Party.

But now that they show poll after poll that the NDP are moving up, that narrative (Forum = Liberals) has been thrown out the window. Now Forum Research (whom Now Magazine calls a Conservative pollster) is the NDP best friend.

Interesting that  the polling firms who have questionable techniques & methodology (MainStreet & Forum) show the NDP in 2nd with the Liberals trailing badly. While the more respected firms like Nanos & Abbucus have the Liberals second. Which says to me that these Conservative Polling firms (Forum & Mainstreet) are deliberately pushing out a narrative in the media to vote NDP. That way the vote is split and would allow the Conservatives to come up the middle.

But then again everyone here will say that Forum & Mainstreet are to be trusted since they show the NDP in second. Even though in 2015 when these firms showed the NDP & Mulcair in third everyone here said they were not to be trusted because they were in bed with the Liberals!

NorthReport wrote:

But apparently there are not enough polling companies touting for the Liberals, as even the Liberal supporting CBC are now pushing more Liberal polls on us. Who knew!

Exactly so it is a fallacy to think every single polling firm is in bed with the Liberals just because they show them in the lead.

If the NDP is now at 33%, identification with "Ford Nation" no longer equates, if it ever did, to an actual intention to vote PC.  And there's never been any reason for you to act like it means more that 20% of 2014 NDP voters identify with "Ford Nation" than it does that 21% of 2014 Liberal voters say the same thing.  Clearly, the poll proves that Ford's actual support from NDP voters is evaporating.

What is your point in repeatedly and relentlessly trumpeting that one statistic anyway?  Are you trying to argue that ONDP voters are somehow more reactionary than OLP voters?  OR that identification with "Ford Nation" is somehow the ONDP's fault?  

So you have no reason to keep making an issue of that.  What matters is that NDP support is surging and the PC's are no longer overwhelming favorites.

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If the NDP is now at 33%, identification with "Ford Nation" no longer equates, if it ever did, to an actual intention to vote PC.  And there's never been any reason for you to act like it means more that 20% of 2014 NDP voters identify with "Ford Nation" than it does that 21% of 2014 Liberal voters say the same thing.  Clearly, the poll proves that Ford's actual support from NDP voters is evaporating.

What is your point in repeatedly and relentlessly trumpeting that one statistic anyway?  Are you trying to argue that ONDP voters are somehow more reactionary than OLP voters?  OR that identification with "Ford Nation" is somehow the ONDP's fault?  

So you have no reason to keep making an issue of that.  What matters is that NDP support is surging and the PC's are no longer overwhelming favorites.

Where are you getting the 33% number?

From the Forum poll which has the race at 40% PC, 33% NDP, 22% Lib.  There are essentially no polls that support the argument that voting Liberal is the best way to stop Ford...the clear trend in the most recent series of polls is the PC's remaining stationary or falling, the NDP surging, and the Liberals in third place.  That is the trend.  

It no longer matters who identified with "Ford Nation" in that one graphic you keep posting.