Winnable NDP Seat May Open Up For Jagmeet Singh In September

Let's just say it is less safe for the Liberals, as there is not too many 3 million dollar homes in this riding.

I seriously doubt Jagmeet will make any public commitment before the Ontario election is over. He will want to see how the Brampton and neighboring ridings play out first in the Ontario election. I know his team of supporters are pushing their candidates. 

At this time I’m not sure how they will fair out.  

From Mighty Middle:

I can't imagine the residents in Burnaby South voting for a backbench Liberals over a National Federal Party leader like Jagmeet Singh

​They very could, however, vote for a backbench Conservative.

This is a much better idea than running in Outremont, I wouldn't say its a safe seat but its a lot more favorable for the NDP than Outremont. Frankly if he can't win it he shouldn't be leader.

Debater wrote:

The other problem for Singh is that the seat won't necessarily be available in September.

That's only when Kennedy Stewart is thinking of leaving.  The actual by-election itself doesn't have to be called until 6 months after that.

And by that point we would be almost into spring 2019. So what would the point then be????

Eventually this Jagmeet running in a bi election debate is going to disappear. 

I give it 4 months

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Mighty Middle wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

And by that point we would be almost into spring 2019. So what would the point then be????

Eventually this Jagmeet running in a bi election debate is going to disappear. 

I give it 4 months

Again it is Parlimentary tradition that when a leader tried to enter the house by winning a seat, the government of the day makes it as easy as possible by 1) calling a by-election as soon as possible 2) letting the leader run unopposed.

I would assume the tradition would continue as this was done for Brian Mulroney, Jean Chrétien, Stockwell Day and Joe Clark.

The NDP ran a candidate in all of these cases, so how can said "Parliamentary Tradition" apply in their case?

I would say that right now, with the fallout from the Weir happening, there is no safe NDP seat in the country. In any case, why now, when it was 'the right decision' for Singh to not run after he won the leadership of the party? Why now all of a sudden change your mind? 

Yes, Vancouver East is safe NDP territory. But why have Singh run now, when just a few weeks ago it was the consensus of opinion that he didn't have to be in the House? 

And again, Vancouver East is safe but the voters have always had a local candidate. Parachuting in someone may not sit that well with them.

In thinking things over, I realized why the push is on now to get Singh into the Commons. In the beginning, the view was that he needed to travel the country to re-energize the NDP vote, and it was better that he do that, than try to gain a Commons seat.

Given NDP support has more or less flatlined, suddenly that mission is forgotten, and now Singh really needs to get into the House to electrify the country with his Commons performance.

Except now there's a general election looming, and he would no sooner get to his desk (assuming he wins a seat), than it would be time to head back out to the country for the campaign.

The decision to leave Mulcair in as a lame duck for an extended period, the decision to not get the new leader a seat, and now the possible decision to go ahead and try find a seat makes me to believe the party brains trust is lost in some never-never land. I'm beginning to think they may be reduced to non-official party status after the next election. Oh well, perhaps that will allow for some much needed renewal.

We already have two "business as usual" parties. Why do we need a third?

Perhaps I wasn’t clear enough? This speculation of Singh running in a bi election is getting real old. 

A big chunk of what Jagmeet brings to the party is the hope of seats from seat rich Ontario, the GTA, minority’s. 

Ok a seat in BC that has good NDP support will probably get insiders whispering but not really when you look at the whole big picture. 

The NDP took a huge kick in the groin in 2015! You have to be living in lala land to not see this. 

I and many thought that a NDP leadership candidate without a seat was super risky!! 

Jagmeet is strongest in Brampton! No if ands buts or maybes!

Also, it looks like at this point the ONDP is going to get a little bump this summer we should see the federal NDP bump up a little. This will help guarantee Jagmeet a seat in Brampton east come 2019 and possibly 60 seats in parliament?

If you folks want to speculate a bi election, wait and see if a liberal MP from Brampton steps down. How much you guys want to bet that will ever happen? NEVER!

The only people who are won't let the "Jagmeet needs to fight a by-election NOW" thing go are the Liberal Party flacks on this board.  They keep flogging this because they're convinced they can beat Jagmeet in a byelection and thereby force another NDP leadership convention, which they believe would make it impossible for whoever replaced Jagmeet as leader to lead the party to anything like a respectable showing, let alone gains.

Outside of those two or three people, nobody cares whether he gets a federal seat yet.

Quote:

If you think Jagmeet staying outside the house is doing wonders for the party, explain why the party is stuck at 20% in the polls, and hasn't moved beyond third behind the Conservatives and the Liberals.

That's a logical fallacy, MM.  Like saying "if God doesn't care about our sinful ways, then why did this tornado happen somewhere on Earth the very day after Wisconsin legalized 'gay marriage'!"

To put it much plainer, do you have some falsifiable reason to believe that the NDP suffers in the polls SPECIFICALLY because Singh lacks a seat?  And not for any other reason?

Ken Burch wrote:

I made no personal attack.  I know nothing about either of you as people and have no opinions about either of you as human beings.  My comments were strictly about your political allegiance and the way it informs your comments.

Let me frame the question this way:

Neither of you supports the NDP.

Why, then, do you CARE whether the leader of the NDP contests a byelection?  What's it to you?

The NDP is stuck at around 20% in the polls, and that's unfortunate.  There's no evidence that that fact has anything to do with whether or not the federal NDP leader has a seat.  In the last election, the NDP was led by somebody who already had a seat when he won the leadership.  That leader, with a seat, with regular attendance in the House, led the party to electoral disaster.  

In 1993, the NDP's leader, Audrey McLaughlin, had a seat when elected and led the party to a loss of official party status.

In 1974, the NDP's leader, David Lewis, had held a seat for almost a decade.  He led the party to a loss of half of its seats and was beaten in his own riding.

Therefore, there is no special electoral benefit to the NDP's leader holding a seat in the House at all.  Jagmeet probably will stand somewhere before the election, but that's his business and the business of people who actually support the NDP.

I think you can understand how suspect it sounds that two of the most implacably anti-NDP posters on the board keep essentially demanding that Jagmeet contest a byelection as soon as possible. 

It is only natural to wonder about your motives in pressing for the guy to stand in every by-election that comes up.  

Ken,

1) You attacked your fellow posters as "Liberal Party flacks on this board".

2) You ask, why do people here care about whether Singh runs in a by-election?  The answer:  this is a political discussion forum!  We are all here to discuss political events and stories!  That's what we're doing.

3) No one here is forcing Singh to stand in "every by-election that comes up".  We're discussing the situation that he is in.  And everyone here is discussing it -- not just 1 or 2 posters.  It's something that most people in the political world in Canada are discussing.  Columnists, party members, posters on political forums, etc.  I'm not sure why that has triggered a reaction in you when it is a normal thing for people to do.

4) This current story was being discussed because an NDP MP raised the issue.  That is why it is so bizarre for you to attack other posters as being part of a Liberal plot to force the NDP Leader to run in a by-election.

Debater wrote:

2) You ask, why do people here care about whether Singh runs in a by-election?  The answer:  this is a political discussion forum!  We are all here to discuss political events and stories!  That's what we're doing.

I agree with Debater on this point. Anyone is allowed to post about any topic, and a good variety of opinions makes for a good discussion.

Mighty Middle wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

And by that point we would be almost into spring 2019. So what would the point then be????

Eventually this Jagmeet running in a bi election debate is going to disappear. 

I give it 4 months

Again it is Parlimentary tradition that when a leader tried to enter the house by winning a seat, the government of the day makes it as easy as possible by 1) calling a by-election as soon as possible 2) letting the leader run unopposed.

I would assume the tradition would continue as this was done for Brian Mulroney, Jean Chrétien, Stockwell Day and Joe Clark.

It wasn't done for Chretien.  The NDP stood a candidate against him in the Beausojour byelection and that candidate pulled 34% of the vote, the best showing the party had ever had there.  Also, when Clark ran, the Reform party stood against him and expressed anger that the Liberals and NDP did not(apparently believing that those parties somehow owed it to Reform to take enough votes away from Clark to cause a Reform upset).

Ken Burch wrote:

Look, here's reality:  It would have been pointless and futile for Jagmeet to have contested any of the byelections that have occurred since he was elected leader.  He faced certain defeat in any of them, simply because ANY NDP candidate faced certain defeat in any of them.  The Liberals and Conservatives would never have agreed to give him an uncontested race in any of those byelections, neither would the Bloc or the Greens.  The guy didn't owe it to anybody to be electoral roadkill.

I agree with this analysis.

Ken Burch wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

And by that point we would be almost into spring 2019. So what would the point then be????

Eventually this Jagmeet running in a bi election debate is going to disappear. 

I give it 4 months

Again it is Parlimentary tradition that when a leader tried to enter the house by winning a seat, the government of the day makes it as easy as possible by 1) calling a by-election as soon as possible 2) letting the leader run unopposed.

I would assume the tradition would continue as this was done for Brian Mulroney, Jean Chrétien, Stockwell Day and Joe Clark.

It wasn't done for Chretien.  The NDP stood a candidate against him in the Beausojour byelection and that candidate pulled 34% of the vote, the best showing the party had ever had there.  Also, when Clark ran, the Reform party stood against him and expressed anger that the Liberals and NDP did not(apparently believing that those parties somehow owed it to Reform to take enough votes away from Clark to cause a Reform upset).

The NDP ran against Clark in Kings-Hants (Kaye Johnson). It was Calgary Centre where the Liberals & NDP ran paper candidates in the 2000 election.

In light of the NDP's longstanding practice of running candidates against other parties' leaders in byelections, I don't think Jagmeet can reasonably expect a pass from the Liberals or Conservatives if he runs in Burnaby. Nor should he. If Jagmeet runs in a byelection in Burnaby South it is likely that either or both of the other major parties (not to mention the Greens who have a strong presence in B.C. and are running a star candidate for mayor in the same city) will recruit and run high profile candidates to try to knock Jagmeet out and sow further chaos in the federal NDP a year or less before the next federal election. 

Unfortunately, I think there are also factions in the NDP caucus who may be rooting for the same result, particularly those who are aligned around Charlie Angus. Indeed I have suspected Angus's dark hand may be behind the recent Erin Weir fiasco, as well as some of Jagmeet's other recent problems. Will Angus's people conspire to further undermine Jagmeet at an inopportune time around the byelection?

Running for this seat is indeed a high risk move for Jagmeet, although he may not have any better options.

R.E. Wood there is no question Jagmeet did a good job of messing this up himself. But see Erin Weir's own public comments about the one, non-sexual harassment claim. The same public comments that Jagmeet says were the actual reason for booting Weir (as opposed to the incidents that the investigator found constituted sexual harassment, but which everyone seemed to agree were on the minor end of the scale and potentially remediable with education and counselling).

According to Weir, a former Mulcair staffer filed a non-sexual harassment complaint against Weir during the recent investigation based on a public argument they had at SK NDP convention a year and a half ago, where Weir apparently spoke to the staffer harshly. Weir was previously disciplined by Angus, then the caucus chair, for the same incident. Someone leaked the complaint to the CBC after the deal was in place for Weir to return from his suspension, but before it was announced. When Weir responded to the leak, he was booted. You tell me if you think that was a setup or not. I think Angus either leaked the complaint himself or got someone to do it.  He would have known about the issue and he would have known the staffer. It's not like Jagmeet would want to blow up his own deal with Weir. Mulcair is on his way out and probably doesn't give a shit about any of this any more. But Angus has every incentive to keep Jagmeet looking weak. He may have even put the staffer up to file the complaint in the first place. Note that Christine Moore was also an Angus endorser. She could well have been pursuing Angus's agenda all along, even from when she first sent the mass email (this I actually feel less certain on, because she obviously seems to have her own issues, but I wouldn't rule it out). In any case, I believe Angus is backing Jagmeet's decision now because he is the one who forced Jagmeet's hand in the first place, and he knows Jagmeet is the one who has to wear the bad PR for it (while Angus just looks like a "loyal soldier").

I liked a lot of what Angus had to say during the leadership race and my main knock on him was just his French. But I think the way Angus has conducted himself since the leadership race has demonstrated him to be someone very different than who I thought he was. I really think he is at least indirectly responsible for a lot of what is going on now, and probably directly responsible.

Singh hasn't thought it necessary to run up to now, so what's the difference? If it was okay for him to run the party from outside the Commons last week, it must be okay this week,

And parachuting him into a riding where he is more or less unknown, and where he would only sit until the next election is not really a good move.

I think what's brought this up is first off, his failure to 'excite the masses' by his trips around the country, and now his chaotic handling of Erin Weir (and investigation).

If he ran and won, that would reset the balance a bit. If he ran and lost, the NDP would be looking for another leader. The question NDPer's should be asking themselves is, does the risk of having to go through another leadership contest (before the next election) outweigh the positives that might come with a Singh win in Burnaby.

To me, it seems the possible bad far outweighs the possible good, but I'm not a party member. Maybe a coin toss...