Not sure why Eastern Ontario remains loyal to the Liberals. Is it the whole "Franco-Ontarian" thing? Is there some belief on the part of that community that no party OTHER than the OLP would ever "defend their interests"? If so, that's a little weird, given that to my recollection, the Rae government didn't do Franco-Ontarians any harm or put any of their rights at risk.
How much does the leader's knowledge of working french come into play?