The most recent Ontario polls give me a Deja-Vu of the 2011 Federal Election. We better hope that NDP can actually win seats, instead of the just spoiling it for the Libs and allowing the Cons to win a majority.
2018 Ontario Polls
Tue, 2018-05-22 21:16
#502
Tue, 2018-05-22 21:55
#503
The most recent Ontario polls give me a Deja-Vu of the 2011 Federal Election. We better hope that NDP can actually win seats, instead of the just spoiling it for the Libs and allowing the Cons to win a majority.
Which is why I think Forum & Mainstreet pushed polls showing the NDP second. To build momentum so the vote would split (like in 2011) guaranteeing a PC win.
Tue, 2018-05-22 21:59
#504
The number one issue this election is change Too bad our political system has so much corruption Hopefully if the NDP forms government there will not be any of it as the public is sick of it
Tue, 2018-05-22 23:15
#505
The number one issue in the last Alberta election was change and the PCs were upto their eyeballs in corruption. And the Albertans elected NDP. Some who were cheering for the NDP in Alberta are already calling them Liberals.
So when NDP does end up beating the Cons they apparently become the Liberals.
So when the Liberals win its bad, and when the NDP win it is also bad as they end up being just like the Liberals.
That leaves only one party that can be trusted for not going to be anything like the Liberals.
Things that make one go hmmmmm
Wed, 2018-05-23 00:22
#506
Misfit
Gadar,
Really??? WOW!!!
if the NDP were in power you would still have Ontario Hydro. But you don't because the Liberals were in power.
The CCF/NDP have governed Saskatchewan for 50 years. When they took over in 1944 the province was destitute. In the 1940s people had free hospitalization. In 1948, they were the first government in North America to have a Bill of Rights. They forgave and absorbed farmers debts that they incurred during the 1930s. They were the first government in North America to provide Medicare.
allan Blakeney left the province with a 2 billion dollar Heritage fund. We had government subsidized pharmacare.free dental care for children up to 18 years. We had the best quality roads in the country.
we had because of NDP governments, SGI, Sask Power, Sask Tel, Sask Energy all as crown corporations and auto insurance rates and utility rates that were the lowest in the country.
we had the highest minimum wage and the most progressive labour laws in Canada.
The PCs took only nine years to squander much of that and left our province with a16 Billion dollar debt and a horrible credit rating.
when the NDP were re-elected, my dad said that it would take 40 straight years of NDP government to bring the province back to where it was when they last were in office.
so Gadar, here is the problem. You and so many others expect the NDP to do on one term what they would require decades to fix. But you only elect the NDP to one term at a time so all you see is them behaving like so-called Liberals.
Tommy Douglas waited 16 years to implement Medicare in the province.
It takes a generation for the NDP to build and just one or two terms for Liberals and Conservatives to smash it all away.
it takes about 25 years to pay off a mortgage on a home and you want the NDP to wiggle their noses and do it all in a few years.
Actually, I am not surprised.
Oh, and Saskatchewan is a have not province.
Wed, 2018-05-23 00:33
#507
Totally misread my comment.
Some people want the NDP to be strong but not strong enough to form government, and when they end up forming a government the same people are quick to call them Liberals,
A strong, but not strong enough to form government NDP yields a Con government which is the desired end result.
For a segment of the population it is not about electing NDP but about having the NDP strong enough to keep those evil Liberals out.
Wed, 2018-05-23 00:40
#508
And beside all the good things Tommy Douglas was also a homophobe. A perfect example of fiscal progressive and a socon.
If current version of the NDP wants to be as succesful as CCF they should look into that combo of policies.
I sincerely believe that a fiscally progressive and a socially conservative party can have a big impact on the Canadian political scene.
Apologies for the thread drift.
Wed, 2018-05-23 00:52
#509
Misfit
In 1969, Tommy Douglas made a very homophobic statement. He later changed his position. He was a product of his times, not to excuse what he said in 1969, but he did change his position which says something.
Wed, 2018-05-23 00:53
#510
The most recent Ontario polls give me a Deja-Vu of the 2011 Federal Election. We better hope that NDP can actually win seats, instead of the just spoiling it for the Libs and allowing the Cons to win a majority.
Which is why I think Forum & Mainstreet pushed polls showing the NDP second. To build momentum so the vote would split (like in 2011) guaranteeing a PC win.
Considering that Nanos had the Libs in high 20s, firmly in 2nd place, I agree.
Wed, 2018-05-23 07:42
#511
The Liberals would have no choice but to side with the NDP since they would be destroyed at the next election if they did not. For the Liberals the best outcome would be a PC majority where they did not have to take sides and could instead focus on a rebuild. Second best might be a NDP majority. Third would be the position of having to back the NDP.
I think Warren Kinsella is an insecure, attention-grabbing crank that misses his former place of prominence as the emininent "lefty" in the right wing of the Liberal party, but I think he's right that an NDP majority is the worst outcome.
A Ford majority isn't bad for the Liberals, I agree with Sean. But I think the best outcome for the Liberals is a minority, Ford preferably but NDP ok too.
Because it allows them to get a new leader, find a few key principles, show some scruples, and support the government on a couple of key issues.
They can jettison the margins of Wynne's platform, reset their political/moral/policy compas to align with the public mood, oppose where appropriate (e.g. Carbon taxes, Climate Change), support where appropriate (eg. business taxes, a subway in Toronto), and "save" Ontario from the NDP's/Ford's worst impulses.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, cause enough intentional havoc to prove to Ontarians that voting NDP results in chaos and that minorities don't work, Ford / Horwath can't govern on more than an issue or two.
This lets the Liberals kill just enough time to reboot and trigger an election in which they launch themselves based on their new direction, capitalize on the "bump" of a new leader, portray themselves as Ontario's saviour, and become the party that will restore order and sanity to Ontario politics.
Wed, 2018-05-23 07:35
#512
Considering that Nanos had the Libs in high 20s, firmly in 2nd place, I agree.
Nanos and Abacus are the two pollsters who reputations are unblemished. Beginning of this campaign they had Liberals in 2nd
While Forum Research (who even many babblers here admit are bias) and Mainstreet (who was exposed last year of being in bed with the right-wing National Post during the Calgary municipal election) had the NDP in 2nd.
And it was the Forum and Mainstreet polling that the media ran with and breathlessly reported on (cause it showed Liberals in 3rd), ignoring Nanos and Abacus.
Wed, 2018-05-23 07:38
#513
Considering that Nanos had the Libs in high 20s, firmly in 2nd place, I agree.
Nanos and Abacus are the two pollsters who reputations are unblemished. Beginning of this campaign they had Liberals in 2nd
All pollsters are blemished, and Abacus has the NDP one point back from the PCs.
Wed, 2018-05-23 10:08
#514
Pollsters are showing the Liberals not doing well so let’s attack the pollsters. What a farce!
Wed, 2018-05-23 10:36
#515
Pollsters are always biased until the result suits me.
This is comical. Polls have become accurate all of a sudden.
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:13
#516
Considering that Nanos had the Libs in high 20s, firmly in 2nd place, I agree.
Nanos and Abacus are the two pollsters who reputations are unblemished. Beginning of this campaign they had Liberals in 2nd
All pollsters are blemished, and Abacus has the NDP one point back from the PCs.
That was AFTER the blitz of the media touting the NDP as the only party to beat Ford, relying on flawed polling from Forum and Mainstreet. It was only then that voters started moving to the NDP to stop Ford. Which both Forum and Mainstreet wanted,
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:20
#517
Pollsters are showing the Liberals not doing well so let’s attack the pollsters. What a farce!
In another thread discussing 2019 federal election, the narrative is unamious from Babbler posters about Forum Research polling. It is fixed to favor the Conservatives. And again Mainstreet was exposed in the Calgary Municipal election of being in bed with the Conservatives.
Both of those firms touted the NDP second (after Ford) before the start of the election, while other reputable polling firms did not.
So someday down the line North Report if (and I say IF) Mainstreet and Forum Research have the Alberta NDP a distant 3rd, remember what you said
so let’s attack the pollsters. What a farce!
And even if Forum Research and Mainstreet had the Liberals in 1st, I wouldn't believe the polling because both use IVR which is unreliable in the polling business.
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:16
#518
Pollsters are showing the Liberals not doing well so let’s attack the pollsters. What a farce!
What chutzpah!
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:18
#519
Almost half of NDP voters just want to stop Liberals, Tories from winning
https://globalnews.ca/news/4225109/ndp-voters-stop-libreals-tories-winni...
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:19
#520
I continue to believe the Ontario election comes down to the structural electoral advantage the PCs have vs. the NDP’s momentum and ability to bring together progressive, anti-Ford voters. Not sure which one wins yet.
Wed, 2018-05-23 11:34
#521
The Progressive Conservatives under Doug Ford are trending downwards but still hold a lead and — thanks to a better vote distribution — are in a position to secure a majority government. The New Democrats have surged ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote and closing on the PCs. Kathleen Wynne's Liberals have dropped to new lows in both popular support and potential seat wins, and could suffer significant losses.
Doug Ford's numbers have been trending downwards since the start of the campaign and are beginning to put a PC victory in some doubt. Nevertheless, the PCs lead where the bulk of the seats are located: in Toronto and the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region, as well as eastern Ontario. The NDP is ahead (narrowly) in the southwest and in northern Ontario. After first taking support away from the Liberals, the NDP appears to be eating into PC support. If this continues, the odds of an NDP victory will increase.
Wed, 2018-05-23 14:21
#522
Pollara, the first to detect NDP at 30% or more support, will soon be releasing another poll.
Previous Pollara Poll - May 4
PCs 40%
NDP 30%
Libs 23%
Wed, 2018-05-23 14:53
#523
The most recent Ontario polls give me a Deja-Vu of the 2011 Federal Election. We better hope that NDP can actually win seats, instead of the just spoiling it for the Libs and allowing the Cons to win a majority.
Which is why I think Forum & Mainstreet pushed polls showing the NDP second. To build momentum so the vote would split (like in 2011) guaranteeing a PC win.
Harper was going to win a majority in 2011 no matter what. It wouldn't have made any difference which poll showed which party in second. And it's been repeatedly proved that it wouldn't have stopped Harper if the NDP had agree not to try to win more seats than the Liberals. The Liberals finished third because it was impossible for them to have done well with Ignatieff. Just accept reality about that already.
Wed, 2018-05-23 16:44
#524
NDP only one gaining strength
NDP 38%
PCs 37%
Libs 18%
Wed, 2018-05-23 16:52
#525
Latest Poll shows the NDP gaining 11% on the PCs and the Liberals crashing and burning and being wiped off the political map in Ontario
Pollara
Party / May 4 / May 21 / Difference
NDP / 30% / 38% / Up 8%
PCs / 40% / 37% / Down 3%
Libs / 23% / 18% / Down 5%
Wed, 2018-05-23 17:19
#526
dp
Wed, 2018-05-23 17:13
#527
Nice.
Wed, 2018-05-23 17:18
#528
The number one thing is to ensure that Doug Ford does not come anywhere near the levers of power in Ontario, and I don't think we are quite out of the woods yet, but we still have 2 weeks to go.
Wed, 2018-05-23 18:08
#529
Ontario election: What is Google Trends showing?
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/ontario-election-what-is-google-tre...
Wed, 2018-05-23 18:11
#530
FollowFollow @Dleebosh
More
Derek Leebosh Retweeted Derek Leebosh
Talk about a "pyrrhic victory", imagine if the NDP wins the popular vote and the PCs get a bare majority and then Ford tries to impose an extreme draconian agenda #onpoli
Derek Leebosh added,
Derek Leebosh @Dleebosh
According to the http://tooclosetocall.ca simulator the @Pollara poll would yield PCs 66 seats, NDP 57 seats and Liberals 1 (ONE) - and yes it is Ottawa-Vanier
2:32 PM - 23 May 2018
Wed, 2018-05-23 18:26
#531
A right-winger weeps!
COMMENTARY: Ford’s vulnerability makes minority government possible
https://globalnews.ca/news/4227043/doug-ford-ontario-minority-barry-kay/
Wed, 2018-05-23 18:47
#532
Time to forget any talk of a minority government situation. Not gonna happpen.
The Liberals are in in jeopardy of having their worst ever showing in the history of Ontario politics.
How low can they go?
Wed, 2018-05-23 18:49
#533
Humm....
What the fuck does that matter when the Liberals are behind the Tories by 9% ?
What an unhealthy obsession you have with the Liberals.
Get back to us when the NDP is only 3% behind the PC's. SMFH.
Wed, 2018-05-23 19:00
#534
Looks like Nanos completely missed the NDP's rise in Ontario. Who knew!
Nanos latest May 11
PCs 41%
NDP 24%
Libs 29%
Wed, 2018-05-23 19:35
#535
Two weeks ago? You’re posting a two week old poll to discredit Nanos because they continue to show the Liberals leading nationally?
Wed, 2018-05-23 20:00
#536
And the federal NDP didn't do particularly well in electoral terms in the years Tommy led it. He lost his own seat during that time as well, and was only able to return to the House in short order because another NDP MP lost his seat right after the election in which Tommy was beaten.In 1969, Tommy Douglas made a very homophobic statement. He later changed his position. He was a product of his times, not to excuse what he said in 1969, but he did change his position which says something.
Wed, 2018-05-23 20:26
#537
Leger to be out with a poll tomorrow.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JeanMarcLeger1/status/999440090865815553
Wed, 2018-05-23 21:57
#538
Misfit
At Ken Burch,
and the NDP didn't do well under David Lewis, Ed Broadbent, Audrey McLaughlan, Alexa McDonnough, Tom Mulcair, and for most years under Jack Layton as well. So your point is?
Wed, 2018-05-23 22:01
#539
Misfit
Tommy Douglas lost a seat in Regina right after Medicare was launched in Saskatchewan. There was the doctor's strike and a lot of bitterness and fear about government funded healthcare by many. that is why he lost a seat in Regina.
Wed, 2018-05-23 22:27
#540
The PCs must be kicking themselves for getting rid of Brown
Leger’s last poll was Apr 23 and it showed
PCs 43%
Libs 26%
NDP 26%
Thu, 2018-05-24 00:24
#541
At Ken Burch,
and the NDP didn't do well under David Lewis, Ed Broadbent, Audrey McLaughlan, Alexa McDonnough, Tom Mulcair, and for most years under Jack Layton as well. So your point is?
First of all, I admire Tommy Douglas and meant no disrespect to him.
All I was saying was that, in federal politics, he demonstrated no particular electoral potency(btw, he was also defeated in his riding in 1968) and he certainly did not demonstrate that the NDP would increase its federal popularity if it moved back to 1950s-style social conservatism. Tommy did well provincially, as a social conservative-but that was in an era in which every OTHER party leader held identical views on social issues, as did the public. The public is progressive on social issues.
(btw, in Canada, most of the battles on what you are defining as "social issues"(issues involving personal sexual conduct and the range of relationships people are to be permitted to engage in) have been mainly, though not totally, resolved-gender identity is an exception, of course.
What issues are there on which the NDP would gain from take less-inclusive, less-humane and accepting positions than those it currently holds?
People whose conception of politics is about refusing to accept those not like them are rarely, if ever, going to agree with any left-of-center party on anything or consider voting for any party which has any non-reactionary views. Obviously some social conservatives vote NDP, but the NDP doesn't win their votes by pandering to them on the issues where they're reactionary or bigoted-it wins those votes by offering them something else that engages them and seems to address their more pressing needs.
Thu, 2018-05-24 05:08
#542
The PCs must be kicking themselves for getting rid of Brown
Leger’s last poll was Apr 23 and it showed
PCs 43%
Libs 26%
NDP 26%
No, they must be kicking themselves for not choosing Elliott.
Thu, 2018-05-24 08:12
#543
Leger:
NDP 37
PC 37
L. 21
The poll finds that 63 per cent of Liberals would vote NDP as second choice, while 40 per cent of Tories now led by Doug Ford said the same.
Leger executive vice-president Christian Bourque said that's a reflection of the antipathy respondents feel toward the Liberals, led by Kathleen Wynne.
"You can move from right to left as long as you avoid the Liberals," Bourque said in an interview. "What I'm seeing here is that if there is still movement between now and election day — or even over the last weekend — it should favour the NDP at this point in the game."
Thu, 2018-05-24 07:22
#544
The NDP has gained 17% on the PCs
Leger May 24
Paety / Apr 23 / May 24 / Difference
PCs / 43% / 37% / Down 6%
NDP / 26% / 37% / Up 11%
Libs / 26% / 21% / Down 5%
Thu, 2018-05-24 09:24
#545
PCs still ahead, eh!
Thu, 2018-05-24 12:36
#546
alan smithee
Humm....
What the fuck does that matter when the Liberals are behind the Tories by 9% ?
What an unhealthy obsession you have with the Liberals.
Get back to us when the NDP is only 3% behind the PC's. SMFH.
A lot of shit has happened since then. Which makes the federal election that is over a year away not predictable at this point either.
Thu, 2018-05-24 13:40
#547
Humm.....
Thu, 2018-05-24 13:58
#548
Looks like this election is about to be blown wide open
Too bad Nanos completely flubbed it or did they flub it on purpose, eh!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/999686499753975808
Thu, 2018-05-24 14:06
#549
According to some polling looks like Ford will not even win his own seat. If true will he resign as Leader election nite?
Thu, 2018-05-24 14:16
#550
Looks like this election is about to be blown wide open
Too bad Nanos completely flubbed it or did they flub it on purpose, eh!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/999686499753975808
Thu, 2018-05-24 15:37
#551
This could really damage the Ford campaign: Doug Ford accused of buying PC memberships "for new members -contrary to party rules - and bused them in to help his preferred candidate win the PC nomination in the riding where he lives, say a former top Conservative official and a party member present at the 2016 vote".
The article includes an audio of Ford signing up members and saying "it doesn't cost anything", as well as "You don't have to fill that out" and "you don't even have to vote".
The losing contender for the Etobicoke Centre nomination, lawyer Pina Martino, filed a complaint, which included testimony from members recruited by Ford, said the former official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But the party decided to allow Kinga Surma to remain as the candidate, the source said.
On Thursday, the Liberal party released a recording of Ford and Surma and affidavits from Martino and two of her volunteers suggesting that numerous people had been signed up without their knowledge and/or without paying the $10 fee. ...
Martino also alleges, in what appears to be an email sent to then party lawyer Mike Richmond, that Ford used intimidation tactics against her.
“I have been subject to attempts to intimidate me by Doug Ford including him following me home after I had attended to personal business at 22 Division of the Toronto Police Service,” she says in the email, also released by the Liberals. “Further, he waited in the vicinity of my home and followed me a second time as I attended to other business.” ...
If true, the charges would call into question the PC leader’s frequent criticism of controversial nominations held under former leader Patrick Brown, and his mantra that he inherited a “mess” from the party’s previous administration and has been busy cleaning it up.
http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/doug-ford-accused-of-buying-member...