2018 Ontario Polls

Here's an unscientific poll of Toronto Star readers showing Horwath won the debate.

Readers were asked the question:

Who did best in the final Ontario election debate?

Doug Ford  30.02%  (3,040 votes)  

Andrea Horwath  36.75%  (3,722 votes)  

Kathleen Wynne  23.63%  (2,393 votes)  

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/27/final-ontario-electio...

Mighty Middle wrote:

n/a

Let's be clear that Mighty Liberal has picked one of the few recent polls that do not show the NDP leading. He edited the data to make sure that you did not see the momentum (NDP up 5, PC NC Liberal down 5) and the increase in accessible NDP voters. He edited the point of the poll article which showed why both the PC and NDP could win just to show you one side -- so you would think the conclusion was only one-sided.

Mighty Liberal left out this:

"This table gives us a good sense of who is winning the campaign thus far. The Tories are holding onto much of their support, the NDP is converting undecideds and attracting some Liberals, while the Liberals are leaking support to the NDP and undecided category." [Table shows gains and attrition]

Good to insist that the trolls on this site provide full links so you can see what they are editing out of their propaganda.

http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-...

Also if you see the full data you can see more signs of bias and logical lapses:

Example:

Contention that the Conservatives being more evenly spread in regions means they ahve a better chance. Hmm ask the Liberal Manitoba party how that works out: second in cities and second in rural areas leading to almost nothing. What matters is not regional evenness but efficiency in individual seats and not having wasted votes pile up in some places falling shor in others. There is not enough data right now with the significant changes for any pollster to really say if the NDP or Conservatives have the bigger problem here. This also makes a difference based on support levels. Even good distribution is about lots of close wins. This is only a couple support points away from a lot of close losses. The entire argument is based on a mound of bullshit since it is impossible to know which edge of the knife edge you are on.

Example:

Ford is strong becuase he is not losing his right flank. What utter bullshit. Ford has no worries about his right flank and that is not what will decide this. Ford's problem will be if he cannot retain three critcal groups:

1) middle aged supporters (he has the seniors)

2) suburban voters (this is the big 905 question)

3) his more centre supporters who might consider voting NDP or Liberal.

The idea that as long as he keeps the most right wing of his supporters he is fine it a real joke and shows either stupidity of the writer or that the whole piece is propaganda.

Truth is that the Conservatives need a share of the group that defines themselves as centre to win -- they have the right unless there is a surge in small right-wing parties. The NDP has to worry about their centre voters not the left. And they have to worry about voting rates among their supporters.

Example

The contention that the fact that a lead in 2014 voters is hugely significant ignores the fact that this difference is only 4% and the NDP has a 4% of those who did not vote or don't remember. Four years means there is turnover in who is voting as each group is 4 years older.  The benefit here is marginal since we are talking about a 4% advantage each way so the real advantage -- if any is likely half of that unless we presume that there are going to be absolutely no people voting between the ages of 18 and 22 and no voters who did not vote in that age group who are now 22-26 that will now vote.

Example:

The Right is consolidated around Ford. This is a real logical joke. So if the right is already consolidated around Ford, this indicates there is little room to grow.  The split on the left is only important if this exists in individual ridings. If the NDP and the Liberal support are not even (as the poll points out) and they each have stronger areas then the Conservative vote is pittted not just against the next party but also a combination of places where the Liberals are their strongest opposition in some places and the NDP in others. This is not just true regionally -- it is even more true on a seat-by-seat basis.

Now of course Might Liberal did not include this:

"CAN THE NDP WIN THE ELECTION?

"Short answer: Absolutely. I’ve felt that way after looking at the data from our very first survey.

"By the way, our ability to see this potential is thanks to the depth of our analysis and the quality of our surveys. I think it’s what separates my team at Abacus Data from other firms and it’s how we approach all the work we do.

"Here’s why I feel the NDP can still pull off an upset.

"First, the NDP has the most room to grow. There are still two weeks left in this campaign and two thirds of the electorate is open to voting NDP. More important, that number has increased by almost 10 points since early April while the PC and Liberal pools have shrunk over time.

"Second, the NDP has momentum and momentum is a powerful force in politics. Heading into the long weekend, this is exactly where the NDP wants to be. There are neck and neck with the Tories, the Liberals are sinking, and the number of “convertible” NDP voters continues to grow.

"Third, the more people get to know Andrea Horwath, the more they like her. She had a great debate on CityNews, continues to perform well in public appearances, and is making friends without making many enemies. Her negatives have held steady while her positives have increased by 14 points since early April. The opposite is happening to her primary opponent now, Doug Ford.

"Fourth, only the NDP can appeal to voters who want change and those afraid of Doug Ford at the same time. Voting NDP kills two birds with one stone: you get change and stop Ford. And we find evidence that as more people come to recognize the NDP’s lead over the Liberals, its support will continue to grow.

"Finally, few fear the prospect of an NDP government. Two-thirds feel the NDP and Horwath can govern as well as anyone else including 55% of Liberal supporters and 36% of PC supporters. Moreover, when we ask how they would react to the different parties winning the election, only 19% say they would be dismayed if the NDP formed a government after the election. Less than half of the number who feel the same about the Tories and 34 points lower than those feeling the same about a Liberal win.

Then there is this:

"One thing that is clearer today than two weeks ago is the likely fate of Ms. Wynne and the Liberals. While some popular Liberal MPPs could be saved by voters torn between their desire for change and their affinity for their local representative, the 15-year Liberal dynasty is likely coming to an end. All the key metrics are heading in the wrong direction for them. Unless the public changes its mind about Andrea Horwath, it’s improbable that the Liberals will have enough time to turn things around now that they are clearly in third place. "

This is a classic example of how a troll works on this site:

1) they do not give a link

2) They select the data they want ignoring anythign that balances it

3) they pretend that what they are showing is representative and really coming from someone else

4) They know that if anyone goes to the original source they will have a different view that that they showed (reason for #1)

And the drip-drip trolling of an extremely dishonest troll called Mighty Middle (read mighty liberal) continues.

One strategy regarding this troll: Find the source he does not want you to see and share that so you can see how dishonest he is with his selective quotes.

Here is another issue: even with undecided low, it is less likely that they will go to Ford now than to either the Liberals or NDP. At the start of the campaign I said that the NDP had the advantage in the undecided. I said this as people were looking to either stop Ford or stop Wynne. Now it is clear that Wynne is stopped so I think the stop Wynne votes have already been decided. If you are undecided now then I think you are more likely between NDP and Liberal. So the NDP may have lost the advantage having gained already. Now I think the Conservatives have a disadvantage and more of the undecided will break to the NDP and Liberals than to Ford. He is more polarizing and so it is hard to imagine anyone not for or against him by this point. If you are agianst there are two chocie. If you are for you are already with him.

This is the truly bad news for Wynne: If you are against Ford and open to NDP or Liberal then the large lead the NDP have over the Liberals suggest a break to the NDP as somewhat more likely. The thing is if you have not yet gone to the NDP, there may be resistance there. We are getting close to the point where I think people now undecided are becoming less likely to vote at all. and this is where the poll numbers usually get a bit more accurate.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

One strategy regarding this troll:

Babble Comment Policy

Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Quoting parts of articles to mislead people about the point of an article is trolling.

The next time I'll post the whole article so there is no confusion and no misunderstanding.

NorthReport wrote:

There is no change for that Ipsos poll out today within the margin of error.  

There will be attempts to manufacture momentum out of this even if there is none now.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

But you know all this and are trolling...

I'll just post the whole thing so there is no confusion and no misunderstanding. It would be better that way.

Doug Ford's core support base seems to be in the same range as Trump's.

New Pollara poll has NDP up 11.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-the-ndp-lead-keeps-growing/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Angus Reid:

NDP 39

PC 37

L 17

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/05/30/ontario-ndp-pcs-in-dead-heat-angus-reid-poll/