10 of the last 12 polls show the Andrea Horwath-led NDP in the lead and yet.......go figure!
The most up to date projections are:
(Note: I Tweeted yesterday that my projections were showing 49% chances for both the NDP and PC. That was true but I then made other adjustments, mostly based on riding polls).
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/projections-update-for-may-30th-alm...
He says that he can't explain the "terrible" for the NDP Mainstreet riding polls.
The CBC Poll Tracker has the Liberals winning 2 to zero seats. They should of just sat out this election to of avoid the humiliation of a resounding defeat. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose every single seat, then it would be a two party system in the Ontario legislature. Just like it has been in other provincial legislatures.
Will be intersting to see a PC - NDP fight for the next four years, with the Ontario Liberals on the outside looking in. If Andrea can fashion herself as the ultimate Ford fighter, the Liberals could be shut out for years. Just like the Social Credit Party in BC.
@MM
NO!!! To EVERYTHING!!!
@MM
NO!!! To EVERYTHING!!!
Yes that is my point, if the Liberals were going to face a wipe out and be annihilated (as the voters said NO to everything the Liberals offered in their budget pre-election) why go through this exercise.
I suspect that it is going to be a 2 parties only in Ontario for the next decade. NDP-PC battle for the next 10 years with the Liberals on the outside looking in. I don't see how they will recover from this, if ever.
Breaking
Doug Ford has gone from 20 points ahead to 11 points behind
NDP 43%
PC 32%
Liberals 17%
https://twitter.com/UAlbertans3/status/1001837307475906560
dp
The CBC Poll Tracker has the Liberals winning 2 to zero seats. They should of just sat out this election to of avoid the humiliation of a resounding defeat. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose every single seat, then it would be a two party system in the Ontario legislature. Just like it has been in other provincial legislatures.
Will be intersting to see a PC - NDP fight for the next four years, with the Ontario Liberals on the outside looking in. If Andrea can fashion herself as the ultimate Ford fighter, the Liberals could be shut out for years. Just like the Social Credit Party in BC.
This silly they should just sit this out coming from a Liberal is just trolling.
Obviously, any party wants to save whatever seats they can and the Liberals could still get more than 1-2 seats as I explained previously and at this point 1-2 is better than none.
There is no political benefit for the province to be in a two party system. I like the NDP and do not like the Liberals so want them to beat the Liberals but I do not wish for the Liberals to completely go away. In a two party system it is inevitable that both will govern. In a three party system this might not happen. If you don't want to see the PCs in government a 3-party system even with one of them smaller is better than a two party system.
Also sitting out at this point and not trying would be more humiliating than losing every seat and it would be a betrayal of their supporters.
Also in a two party system a 1-seat lead would give a majority.
EKOS
NDP 38.4%
PCs 37.9%
Libs 19.1%
EKOS
Party / May 24 / May 30 / Difference
NDP / 35.6% / 38.4% / Up 1.8%
PCs / 34.9% / 37.9% / Up 3%
Libs / 20.4% / 19.1% / Down 1.3%
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/race-deadlocked/
If you don't want to see the PCs in government a 3-party system even with one of them smaller is better than a two party system.
Best reason for a three party system.
BTW if the Ontario Liberals are wiped that would mean the only area the Liberals represent provincially is in Atlantic Canada. Yukon, BC & Quebec are not really part of the Liberals. They use the Liberal name, but it is a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives.
This would mean the NDP has more bench strength provincially in the big provinces
BC, AB, MB, SK and Ont. Those provinces the Liberals have little to zero representation.
That might be good strategy for the federal campaign in 2019 if they could run on a "team" platform, You have the provincial MPP/MLA. They could frame a narrative that it would be much better to elect a NDP MP so they can work together as a "team" both on the provicial and federal level. Especially in Onatrio where the ridings mirror both fed & prov.
Having an MPP & MP aligned and working together in the same riding, is much better than just electing a backbench Tory of Liberal MP.
DP
EKOS
NDP 38.4%
PCs 37.9%
Libs 19.1%
Distribution still benefitting the Cs, according to EKOS.
Check out the voter intent by region
This voter intent breakdown does not look very inefficient for the NDP such that they would win popular vote by 3 points and still have a PC majority.
What we see from the regionals --
416: NDP in very good shape with double digit lead. Would have to deliver many seats. Liberals likely to hold a couple seats there if their 24% is at all concentrated
905: NDP close second -- might be less efficient than the PCs by a little but not much
East: The NDP vote here might be inefficient -- this is the Conservatives ' best region.
Hamilton/Niagara: The NDP will make up for inefficiency in the East by doing to the Conservatives the same thing here, It is quite possible that the Conservative vote will be inefficient her.
North: Hard to say if on a seat by seat basis the Conservative vote would be efficient but the NDP sure would.
Southwest: this is largely a tie. My guess is both the NDP and Conservative votes may be soemwhat concentrated. As they are mostly head to head if one is concentrated the other has to be as well.
Based on these regionals it is hard to see how the NDP come up with so many fewer seats than the Conservatives.
The danger for the NDP is the age breakdown and if the younger generations will vote.
Innovative Research: NDP 37 PC 34 L 21. NDP picks up a point from the Libwrals.
I still say you will not be disappointed by the 'younger generations'. If they turned out well for Valerie Plante, they should do so for Andrea Horwath.
Innovative
Party / May 23 / May 29 / Difference
NDP / 31% / 37% / Up 6%
PCs / 36% / 34% / Down 2%
Libs / 26% / 21% / Down 5%
The NDP's momentum continues in almost every poll now, the NDP leads in the 5 most recent polls, and the NDP also leads in 11 of the last 13 polls. When big news comes out like yesterday's Pollara poll, showing an 11% lead for the NDP, it is barely mentioned in the press. I think the polling aggregators are out to lunch, and I am going to stick with my forecast for a majority NDP government.
True, but the NDP vote is less effecient than the Con vote. The NDP needs at least a 5 point lead to guarantee themselves victory. Anything less than that and we might end up with a Trump-like scenario, where the NDP wins popular vote but loses the election.
Paul WellsVerified account @InklessPW
FollowFollow @InklessPW
More
Paul Wells Retweeted Greg Lyle
"On leadership, Andrea Horwath has gained 12 points in favorables since our benchmark in March. Kathleen Wynne is up four points, right on the margin of error. Doug Ford has dropped 8 points in favorables while his unfavorables have risen 15 percent."
Paul Wells added,
Greg Lyle @LyleGreg
#onpoli
To me this slide sums up the situation. The NDP are fishing from a much bigger pool than the PC and have dramatically narrowed the gap in strong supporters. Full deck here https://hubs.ly/H0cpWbf0
Let's keep Doug Ford front and centre in voters' minds until the election is over, and hopefully he will be over as well. Will he even win his own seat?
Poll Finds Half Of Decided Voters Making Choice Based On Party They Dislike
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/05/30/ontario-election-2018-poll-find...
How can anyone not keep Doug Ford front and centre? That's the kind of guy he is!
Sorry to burst your bubble NR, but after provincial politics, Doug Ford has interest in being the prime minister of Canada.
isn't there another Ford that's on the school board?
The problem with Fords is that there's really a lot of them and they feel that they're living out a dynastic legacy because their father was a back bench MPP .
It's all a delusion of coarse, but they don't see it that way.
Misfit,
The main thing we need to do is to ensure everyone gets an opportunity to get educated in Canada so they can learn to think for themselves. All education needs to be paid for out of general tax revenue so no one is excluded from the public secular educational system.
It’s official. @fordnation has blown one of the largest leads in modern Ontario history. #onpoli
https://twitter.com/OTFpresFEO/status/1001478540385247232
- dated May 27
Actually it should be 37.9% for the PCs.
Check out the voter intent by region
That breakdown in the North is broooooootal for the Liberals. Even Gravelle might not survive that.
True, but the NDP vote is less effecient than the Con vote. The NDP needs at least a 5 point lead to guarantee themselves victory. Anything less than that and we might end up with a Trump-like scenario, where the NDP wins popular vote but loses the election.
This is popular to say but really a load of bs. It is mathematically and logically impossible for a party to be efficient or not to the same degree at all support levels. Really people -- think this one through.
If you have an efficeient vote it means few wasted votes and just enough. Increase it and you get wasted votes decrease it and you lose those seats. It is stupid really to suggest that becuase the NDP vote is not efficient at 20% it still would not be at 40.
This is a bunch of people talking about shit they can't be bothered to think about how it works.
Oh and by the way let's talk about the NDP which did get a majority with one of the lowest vote totals for a majority in the past.
To win, the NDP need to go over the top in the 905 and get the 45 and unders out to vote. I think they will. The old saw that the young don't tend to vote is not so true any more.
To win, the NDP need to go over the top in the 905 and get the 45 and unders out to vote. I think they will. The old saw that the young don't tend to vote is not so true any more.
They need to hold their own in the 905 -- that is it. They will do well in the South West, Toronto and North. They will do poorly in the East in terms of efficiency. If the 905 is just okay they still have enough. They can't do badly in the 905 but they don't need a victory lap there either.
Misfit,
The main thing we need to do is to ensure everyone gets an opportunity to get educated in Canada so they can learn to think for themselves. All education needs to be paid for out of general tax revenue so no one is excluded from the public secular educational system.
Wrong answer!
what we need to do is make sure people in Canada DONT get brainwashed by the corporate media!
but I think that’s what you meant?
sorry for the thread drift, back to the polls displaying how people not brainwashed intend to vote
I think too many people are repeating half baked ideas that they are not bothering to think critically about. This efficiency thing is a big joke. Poor efficiency means you had a lot of votes that did not produce seats. Game this out in your heads and understand that if you just miss in a pile of places and then increase support you could become extremely efficient.
This is not to say they for sure are going to hit an efficient level -- but what is certain is that this argument against the NDP having any efficient levels is only possible when people don't actually think about what they are talking about.
That said talk of NDP inefficiency as illogical as it is may save them from complacency and light a fire to get what everyone will then say is a shocker. Who knew that getting one vote more than the second highest would win a seat for the NDP -- just as easily as another party?
Forum: PC 39 NDP 35 L 19
http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll
So in 5 days, NDP dropped 12. Example of why Forum is the worst.
It looks like Forum's job is to create narrative for the Sun Network. A week ago, the OLP is dead. Today, Ford is surging ahead of "collapsing" NDP.
H & K
NDP - 39% Up 7%
PCs 37% Down 1%
Libs 19% Down 4%
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/
7 of the last 8 polls, and 13 of the last 16 polls, show the NDP in the lead
I'm still thinking the seat projection outfits are under some sort of orders to project a PC majority no matter what the polls say. It's no longer credible that they wouldn't at least be acknowledging that the liklihood of a majority PC government is now virtually nil if they weren't being pressured to perpetuate the idea that the PC's are STILL in an electoral advantage of some sort.
Whether the outlets are right or not, the ONDP needs better ground game. There are no parties on an Ontario Provincial Election ballot. People actually have to know their candidates' names.
What makes you think they don’t have a good ground game?
I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them. Not even a flyer so far. I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either. I had to look up the candidate's name online.
Are the parties spending similar amounts on their campaigns or do the PC's have an advantage?
It looks like Forum's job is to create narrative for the Sun Network. A week ago, the OLP is dead. Today, Ford is surging ahead of "collapsing" NDP.
Not a crooked pollster, but a bad pollster.
I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them. Not even a flyer so far. I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either. I had to look up the candidate's name online.
Certainly anecdotal, but in my experience I've always found that the NDP's campaign and GOTV operations were second to none, in ridings where they had a legit shot. The software was not the best but everything else was very good.
Whether the outlets are right or not, the ONDP needs better ground game. There are no parties on an Ontario Provincial Election ballot. People actually have to know their candidates' names.
This has always been an exaggerated issue. I think parties have been on ballots in Ontario for years now and if you are going to vote you know. How many signs will you walk by on your way to vote?
I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them. Not even a flyer so far. I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either. I had to look up the candidate's name online.
This does not make sense. Sorry. I don't see any candidate in Toronto for the NDP with zero signs. The major public routes tend to be plastered.
Are the parties spending similar amounts on their campaigns or do the PC's have an advantage?
Spendng is subject to some limits so it is hard to know how big of a difference but the Conservatives raised twice as much as the Liberals; three times as much as the NDP and 8 times as much as the Greens pre campaign. Then there is public allowances based on previous elections -- the Liberals have the most followed by the PCs leaving the NDP with about 1/4 of that total.
