2018 Ontario Polls

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

You also have to look at age demographics as well as gender. I don't think the PCs can count on the older and not-so-wealthy Baby Boomers any more. There is too much stuff Ford can do and not do in order to make their lives more miserable re: healthcare. I predict a big turnout from Millennials, who are concerned about schools. 

A friend in Toronto gave me a ring, and he says they think Ford is going to shut down hospitals and schools. He lives in Parkdale-High Park, which is normally a Liberal/NDP bunfight, and he says the NDP signs are overwhelming the Liberal ones by quite some margin. I think we can count on this riding to go NDP. The extent by which the NDP beats the Liberals in this riding should indicate the general results in the election. The other scuttlebutt is that the local Liberal campaigns are somewhat demoralized, and felt that Wynne threw them under the bus.

This election has pan-Canadian implications. 
1. If Ford wins, Jason Kenny and Rachel Notley have a big ally in the pipeline debate. If Horwath wins, they will not. 
2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

The other thing about the polling and the seat calculation machinations is they have had a riding redistribution along the lines of the federal one, which Ontario still copies according to the Mike Harris Fewer Politicians Act. The ridings have all changed, and although they have the federal profile in their databases, maybe their assumptions may not be strictly accurate in the provincial election sense. There has not been a provincial election through the 124-seat model, and it is possibly inaccurate just to take the polls (not opinion polls but the riding subdivisions) from the old model and plug them into the new. Many people will not have the same choice of candidates, which is generally only 5% of the vote, but when the two parties are in  a statistical tie in the opinion polls that 5% could put one or over the top. 

I think it is clear the NDP still have momentum, and it is now far too late for an NDP bombshell on the scale of #IBelieveRenata.

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

The majority of Ontarians certainly will not chose Ford.   But he just needs around 37% for a fake "majority."

I strongly support PR.   Canada achieved the most under Liberal minority governments supported by the NDP.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yep, this one is over.  Get ready for four years of exhausting chaos.

I don't think this is certain -- it is still close. I do fear the worst but there is a chance.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that the Ford family lawsuit will affect at least 2-3% of voters.  Additionally, more Libs could strategically switch over to the NDP at the last minute.  

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

Like it or not, many on the left, centre-left, and centre have to cooperate with each other to win FPTP elections. Conservatives try to disrupt this cooperation to win phoney FPTP governments.

progressive17 wrote:

 2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

I don't know about that. Who on the left is there to push him?

Pondering wrote:

I think the problem in the coming years is that Horwath won't be radical enough for some NDP members.

She will be called Liberal, just like Notley

progressive17 wrote:

bekayne wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

 2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

I don't know about that. Who on the left is there to push him?

Already Couillard is trying to appear 'progressive' to fight the CAQ, and to try to mop up soft-nationalist and progressive votes who might be thinking of PQ, QS, NDPQ, etc. He can set himself up as the strategic vote against the CAQ, which the NDP seem to have done similarly in Ontario. Say Horwath maintains and extends the 'progressive agenda' set by Wynne, having won. Combined with the victory of Valerie Plante (which will now not be seen as a flash in the pan), Couillard is going to read the tealeaves and see there is a structural shift left going on, which he will want to chase to stay in power. On the other hand, if Ford wins, he will try to pincer the CAQ on the right to show he is a better economic manager, more socially conservative, sell the SAQ, etc.

I can see that happening although Quebec has its own politics.

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

I admire your optimism and hope like i've never hoped before that you are right

Ken Burch wrote:

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Bullshit.  Nobody here wants a Con majority.  And Ford's chances wouldn't be any worse now if the Liberals were still in second.  It goest without saying that there was never a possibility of the OLP coming from behind to win this time.   Nobody government gets re-elected when it's 20 points down in the polls three months before an election.

Nobody? Not a single poster? 

Claiming to know every ones intentions is truly bullshit.

Maybe I want a Con majority, how about that.

I feel Notley is doing a good job for her province.  The province relies heavily on one product.  There needs to be another  way of exporting it or the province is forced to sell at whatever price American buyers set.  This is an untenable position.  I can't see any Alberta premier not wanting a pipeline.  If they had this position, their party would be lucky to get 2% of the vote in a provincial electoin.

I have seen Notley called a Liberal around here. That is one of the reasons I have come to a conclusion that for some people NDP is good only as long as it doesnt beat the Cons.

That sucks.  But pollsters can be, and have been, wrong on several races in recent years.

Ipsos:

PC 39

NDP 36

L  19

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford-pc-majority/

1 in 10 voters remain undecided.  That’s where the hope lies.  Apparently the Liberal vote has a 17% bottom.

gadar wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Bullshit.  Nobody here wants a Con majority.  And Ford's chances wouldn't be any worse now if the Liberals were still in second.  It goest without saying that there was never a possibility of the OLP coming from behind to win this time.   Nobody government gets re-elected when it's 20 points down in the polls three months before an election.

Nobody? Not a single poster? 

Claiming to know every ones intentions is truly bullshit.

Maybe I want a Con majority, how about that.

OK, let me put it this way...you've got no reason to imply that anyone ELSE here is a closet Tory.  It's not a sign of Tory sympathies to be cheering the fact that the ONDP has moved into a dead heat in the polls and has a real chance of winning this year, in a year where it was never possible that Wynne's government could be re-elected. 

Ken Burch wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

That's damn near slander to accuse a poster on this board of being a closet PC.  What possible grounds to you have for such a claim?



And why are you still upset about the NDP gains when the Dippers are doing better than the Liberals would have been had THEY stayed in second place.  The OLP was doomed to be voted out this year, and nothing could have prevented their defeat.

 

Let people draw their own conclusions about the poster in question.   We're on a cusp of a Ford majority, but someone is still talking about the Ontario Liberals, who are effectively not in the running anymore.     I'm not saying this necessarily proves he's a Con troll.   I suppose it's  possible that someone treats political parties as sports teams, as opposed to being vehicles for social progress.