Canada and global warming: a state of denial

As temperatures rise due to climate change, large areas of the world will become arid driving mass refugee migration towards countries, such as Canada, less affected by these chnages.

Up to 30 per cent of the planet’s land surface would become arid if global temperatures rise 2C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new study.

A 2C threshold was set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, but the new research suggests it will not be enough to prevent devastating environmental changes.As land undergoes “aridification” and becomes drier, water supplies run out. ...

The scientists compared the outcomes of 27 different climate models to find the areas of the world that would be hit worst by increased aridity. Their results indicated that while the 2C target might not be enough to avert an aridification crisis, aiming for the more ambitious target of 1.5C would make a big difference.

“Our research predicts that aridification would emerge over about 20-30 per cent of the world’s land surface by the time the global mean temperature change reaches 2C,” said Dr Manoj Joshi, an environmental scientist at the University of East Anglia. “But two thirds of the affected regions could avoid significant aridification if warming is limited to 1.5C.”

The past century has already seen drought severity increase in places like the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the eastern coast of Australia.

Increasingly, climate scientists are linking the severity of natural disasters like droughts and wildfires to climate change.

“The areas of the world which would most benefit from keeping warming below 1.5C are parts of South East Asia, Southern Europe, Southern Africa, Central America and Southern Australia – where more than 20 per cent of the world’s population live today,” said Professor Tim Osborn, another of the study’s authors from the University of East Anglia.

 Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index for 2°C global warming. Illustration: Betts et al. (2018), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-world-land-arid...

The following article from 2017 lists the ten most costly hurricanes in the US financially and their death toll, with three of the top six occurring in 2017, as water temperatures rise from global warming. Hurricane Florence estimated damages range up to $180 billion, which would be 1% of the American economy. (https://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-florence-damage-could-cost-over-170-b...)

With even stronger hurricanes and cyclones predicted if we continue to allow water temperatures to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, the economic, as well as the human and environmental damage on a global basis will be catastrophic. 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-maria-damages-102-billion-su...

Ireland was another country experiencing extreme weather this year: "The summer of 2018 will be remembered for heat wave and drought conditions that affected many parts of the country. Intense thunderstorms were also a feature at the start of the meteorological season." (https://www.met.ie/2018-a-summer-of-heat-waves-and-droughts)

This was followed by extreme storms Ali and Bronagh in September hitting Ireland and the UK. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvnIOFSll5Q)

These extreme weather events foreshadow even more extreme weather events, such as hurricanes which have been unknown in Europe in the past, that are predicted to hit Europe in the future in climate change models. 

Hurricanes move westward with trade winds but can get caught in the eastward winds that prevail further North. In the present climate these remnants are weak because the cooler sea water in the mid-latitudes reduces the hurricane’s strength. ...

Warmer sea water will provide more energy for hurricanes, making them stronger. Stronger hurricanes will have a larger chance to reach Western Europe before they die out. In addition, they will have to travel over a less hostile environment with warmer sea water before they reach Europe. ...

By using a very high resolution weather forecast model for climate simulations we have tested the possibility that hurricanes will reach Europe in a warmer climate. ...

These simulations showed a significant increase in the possibility of Sandy like super-storms for Europe.

https://www.rte.ie/eile/brainstorm/2017/1016/912655-the-future-will-brin...

It's no wonder that David Suzuki asked Environment Minister Catherine McKenna to resign because Trudeau supports the building of the Trans Mountain pipeline, just as the French Environment Minister, Nicolas Hulot, did when he left the Macron government over inaction on climate change. The fact that Trudeau government also supports the largest subsidies for the fossil fuel sector on a GDP unit basis among the G7 identifies where the Liberals are putting government money as opposed to their mouths.

This is further symbolized by Trudeau removing “climate change” from the name of a powerful committee of ministers, but says the government is no less committed to the issue at the same time.  (https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/08/28/news/trudeau-government-remo...)

The French environment minister recently took that route, saying he didn't want to create the illusion his presence in the government was leading to progress on climate change.

In a story published by La Presse, David Suzuki says if McKenna really believes what she's saying, she too should quit "instead of being an apologist for the government."

He told the Montreal-based news site that Canada lacks credibility on climate change, with the Liberal government supporting the construction of a pipeline to the British Columbia coast to transport Alberta bitumen. Suzuki made the comments in the context of an interview about the resignation of French environment minister, Nicolas Hulot.

"She must stop rationalizing what Canada is doing," Suzuki told La Presse, adding that the government "talks out both sides of its mouth. We have a prime minister who signed (the Paris climate accord), who says, 'We're back,' and we all praised him ... then he approves pipelines! What is that?"

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/20/catherine-mckenna-david-suzuki_...

McKenna's response: she's no quitter. I am sure that's right for someone who has the power, prestige and money of a cabinet minister, especially when she is still allowed to say all the right things but do nothing.

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:

As I pointed out before we talk about the 1%. In global income terms the 1% includes Canadians earning about $40,000 and up. It is ridiculous to expect that some sacrifices would not have to come from middle income Canadians to address climate change. We are the one percent.

If so then why do you suppose the "Occupy" movement tried to tell us that the real 1% were all North Americans like us (who needed to acknowledge their privelege and make changes) instead of telling us that most of us are, in fact, the the real 1% who need to acknowledge our privelege and make changes?

Whether we believe we have a moral obligation as a wealthier nation or not to pay the costs associated with climate change, we have, are and will be paying some of those costs both within Canada and externally. Here are a few (and this list is very far from exhaustive) of the economic and human costs created by global warming within Canada:

-Mountain Pine Beetle: The MPB epidemic affected more than 180,000 square kilometres (2.5 times the size of New Brunswick). By comparison, the wildfires burned about 12,000 square kilometres last year and 13,000 square kilometres this year. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-wildfires-burned-lar...) Results suggest that there will be a cumulative present value loss of $57.37 billion (or 1.34 per cent) in GDP and a $90 billion decline in welfare (compensating variation) from 2009 to 2054 in BC. Consumer welfare was also dramatically reduced due to the MPB, with CV falling by nearly $90 billion. Household incomes were expected to fall by $44.65 billion dollars. This was a result of loss of jobs due to the reduction in timber supply(https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/89/1/100/2465746) "MPB is extending further north in British Columbia and further north east in Alberta. ...  MPB has become one of the most devastating invasive forest pests in Canada, resulting in huge ecological, economic, and social costs. Currently, there are no populations in Ontario, however reports have predicted that climate change may allow the beetles to spread north and east into other provinces and territories. In fact, the beetle has already spread far outside of its native range and has reached within 50 kilometers of the Saskatchewan border. The cost of fighting the insect in western Canada has been staggering. Since 2001, the BC government has spent more than $917 million fighting the beetle. The Government of Canada has committed $340 million since 2002 and has made a commitment for an additional $800 million. The BC situation has also resulted in excess supply of low quality and low priced pine timber salvaged from affected forests. The depressed lumber prices resulted in increased softwood lumber tariffs imposed by the US (which increases export costs), and made it difficult for eastern mills (i.e. Ontario and Quebec) to compete with the BC lumber. (https://forestinvasives.ca/Meet-the-Species/Insects/Mountain-Pine-Beetle...)

-cost of Fort McMurray Alberta fire: "$9.9-billion figure includes the expense of replacing buildings and infrastructure as well as lost income, profits and royalties in the oilsands and forestry industries"  (https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/01/17/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finan...)

-“King salmon (Chinook) are going for $13 or $14 a pound in whole form, not even filets. It’s starting to become a luxury item.” That’s if you can buy it at all. The wild catch of B.C. salmon has declined nearly 80 per cent since 1990, according to statistics supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture. ... The Fraser River sockeye may well be the canary in the climate-change coal mine, a harbinger of the decline of wild fisheries around the world expected to result from rising ocean temperatures, changing salinity and oxygen levels. A University of B.C. study released this week projects global fishing revenue will drop seven to 10 per cent by 2050. Cold-water species such as salmon are already dropping as a proportion of the world’s wild caught fish, said co-author William Cheung, a professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries." (https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/what-is-the-future-of-bcs-iconi...)

-$547.7 million for fighting 2017 BC wildfires by BC Wildfire Service; "Government of Canada is providing  $175 million through the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements and $38,595,900 to the Canadian Red Cross" - the 2018 BC wildfire broke the 2017 BC wildfire record for area burned but the full costs are not available yet (https://www.mycariboonow.com/24720/2017-wildfire-costs-near-550-million-...)   

-"the bill for dyke improvements to protect against rising sea levels starts at $9.5 billion." for Metro Vancouver according to a BC Liberal government study (https://biv.com/article/2013/11/say-goodbye-to-metro-vancouvers-livable-...)

- "at least 93 people died"  from high temperatures in July 2018 in Quebec, (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/07/18/89-deaths-now-linked-to-h...) "a report showing Montreal can expect more heat waves as a result of climate change" (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-after-54-heat-wave-deaths...)

-"Most of Ontario is under a severe weather warning Tuesday, once again threatening flood damage in a province where insurers have already paid approximately $800 million for natural catastrophe damages. This cumulative total for the year in Ontario does not include claims totals for a flooding event earlier in the month (August 2018), when a “pocket storm” drenched areas of Toronto with up to the same amount of rain in three hours as the city usually experiences in a month"  (https://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/beleaguered-industry-faces-...)

-"Lennox Island, a small 540-hectare Mi'kmaq reserve northwest of P.E.I. The island, home to 470 people, is under threat. ... At the going rate, scientists estimate half the island could disappear in 50 years." (https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/facing-the-change-5-canadian-communities-t...)

-"Northern Saskatchewan is no stranger to devastating wildfires. An unprecedented wildfire season overwhelmed the province in 2015, forcing the evacuation of some 13,000 people." (https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/facing-the-change-5-canadian-communities-t...)

-Old Crow, Yukon: "Temperatures have increased 2 degrees Celsius over the past 50 years — twice the rate they've increased in southern Canada. And in northern Yukon, winters are warming even faster: on average, winter temperatures have jumped by 4 C in the last half century. That's making it difficult for the community to safely build the winter roads they rely on for access to their traditional hunting and fishing grounds. Permafrost thaw, combined with heavier rainfalls, are causing soil erosion and landslides around Old Crow. ... In some cases, the erosion has caused entire lakes to dry out. In 2007, the six-kilometre-long Zelma Lake, one of the largest in the Old Crow Flats, lost 60 per cent of its water in a month." (https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/facing-the-change-5-canadian-communities-t...)

At this month's G7 environmental ministers meeting in Halifax, the president of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Michael Sabia, who manages $300 billion in Quebec public pension plans, said "Too many investors are still seeing climate action as a restraint on profit" even though "trillions of dollars in economic gains that studies have shown will be available to nations that shift to a low-carbon economy." However, Sabia and many Canadian governments are still not been following his advice. 

“Too many investors, even long-term oriented investors today, still see climate change as a constraint — something that forces them to make a choice, to compromise their returns, and therefore runs counter to their fiduciary obligations to their clients,” said Sabia. “As long-term investors, collectively, we need to think differently, because addressing climate change is not only about what you stop doing — more importantly, it’s about what you start doing.” ...

The pension plan was among Canadian companies listed as some of the top investors in new coal power plants overseas, according to a December 2017 report by Friends of the Earth Canada and Germany's Urgewald. The federal government has been pushing to phase-out coal powerworldwide.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/09/18/news/too-many-investors-stil...

The Untied Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be releasing its 2018 report on October 8th following a meeting from Oct. 1st to 5th in South Korea during which government officials will work with the scientific authors of the report to produce a summary for politicians. The IPCC includes representatives from the 195 countries, including the US, which cannot drop out of the organization until the end of 2020, despite Trump's wishes. The report will suffer from limitations with regard to the effects of Trump's policies on climate change. 

A leaked copy of the draft report warns that the world is on a path to a 1.5 degree temperature rise by 2040 that will have drastic consequences unless nations undergo "rapid and far-reaching" economic change.

Canada's Trudeau Liberal government is falling well behind once again in its promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that it made in the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change, a repeat of the failure of the Chretien Liberal government to live up to its 1997 promises in the Kyoto Accord.

“To be straight, the Trump effect is not mentioned in the report,” said Jim Skea, the co-chair of the IPCC working group that deals with mitigation, or actions that countries take to reduce their emissions.

“We’re waiting for the literature to emerge that will assess the aggregate effect of the various pledges that countries have or have not made,” added Skea, also a professor and chair in sustainable energy at Imperial College London. “The literature has not really emerged in the time that’s available to allow us to take account of that in this particular report.”

In a call with journalists from around the world, Skea said future reports from the IPCC, in particular the so-called sixth assessment report expected in 2021, will have some of the necessary information to assess the damage from the U.S. ...

Countries like Canada, which made commitments at Paris to ratchet up climate goals in order to phase out fossil fuels polluting the atmosphere, must continually assess their progress against the scientific consensus for how effective those commitments will be at stopping climate change. 

A collaborative report from auditors general across Canada this March found Ottawa would fail to meet its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent below the level it was at in 2005 by the year 2030. 

As the Trudeau government gets set to introduce a nationwide price on carbon pollution next year, it has also had to battle the Ford government of Ontario, which is moving to scrap its provincial cap and trade regime for cutting emissions, as well as the federal Conservative Party which has vowed to scrap Trudeau's price on pollution if they win power in a federal election next year. ...

The report is expected to quantify just what it will take to limit global warming to that 1.5-degree rise. “We were invited to produce quite a targeted report focusing on specific questions,” said Skea. In June, Reuters obtained a leaked draft of the report that it said showed the warming of the planet is on course to exceed 1.5 degrees by 2040, and only with “rapid and far-reaching” global economic change can the planet hope to limit warming to that amount. ...

The report will have five chapters, scientists said: an introductory chapter framing the issues; a chapter that looks at the different scenarios for how much carbon humanity puts into the atmosphere the rest of the century; a chapter on the impacts that 1.5 degrees warming will have on humans; a chapter on the measures that will have to be taken to adapt to a warmer world; and a chapter on the links between 1.5 degrees warming and sustainable development and inequality.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/09/25/news/climate-scientists-wont...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations report that is to be released on October 8th is expected to have the strongest warning yet about the risks the world faces and the short period of time left in which we can respond effectively before facing catastrophic problems on a global scale. There is also growing evidence that tackling climate change now can provide an economic boost rather than being a drag on the economy. 

This week, scientists are gathering in South Korea to draw together the last five years of advances in climate science to answer key questions for policymakers. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) celebrates its 30th birthday this year with what is likely to be a landmark report to be released on Monday 8 October. What is expected to emerge will be the strongest warning yet that these unusual occurrences will add up to a pattern that can only be overcome with drastic action.

Thousands of the world’s leading climate experts collaborate on the periodic reports, released roughly every half-decade. They have grown clearer over the years in the certainty of their evidence that climate change is occurring as a result of human actions, and firmer in their warnings of the disruptive consequences. ...

When the scientists deliver their verdict, the onus will pass to politicians to translate their advice into concrete action. Already in recent weeks, global initiatives have begun aimed at doing so: the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco last month spurred protests, and dozens of local governments and multinational companies to make pledges; the second One Planet Summit saw advances in climate finance; while at the UN General Assembly, secretary general António Guterres urged world leaders to step up, calling climate change “the defining issue of our time”.

Evidence showing that tackling climate change can be an economic boost rather than a brake has been growing. The recently published New Climate Economy report says more than 65m new low-carbon jobs could be created in just over a decade, and that 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution could be avoided every year by government action on climate change. A further $2.8tn could be added to government revenues by 2030 by reforming perverse incentives to burn fossil fuels.

Nicholas Stern, co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, which produced the study, said: “Current economic models fail to capture both the powerful dynamics and very attractive qualities of new technologies and structures [that reduce carbon]. Thus we know that we are grossly underestimating the benefits of this new growth story. Further, it becomes ever clearer that the risks of the damage from climate change are immense, and tipping points and irreversibilities getting ever closer.”

The existence of tipping points – thresholds of temperature beyond which certain natural processes become irreversible, such as the melting of permafrost, which may release the greenhouse gas methane and create runaway warming effects – is a key concern of many climate scientists. The faster emissions rise, the sooner we may unwittingly pass some of these key points.

For all these reasons, the IPCC’s special report comes at a crucial point. Scientists and economists have warned that if the world cannot shift course within the next few years, the consequences will be dire, as new infrastructure built now – in energy generation, transport and the built environment – will be made either to low-emissions standards or in the high-emissions habits of the past. As the IPCC’s next comprehensive assessment of climate science will not be available until 2021, this year’s report will be vital in shaping policy.

The political situation is more fraught than it was in the runup to Paris. The US is pulling out of the landmark climate agreement and is likely to play little part in the talks. Australia’s government is also in turmoil over climate actions. Now the challenger for Brazil’s presidency, Jair Bolsonaro, is threatening to withdraw its participation – a potential blow to the Paris consensus, as Brazil was a linchpin among rapidly developing nations.

All eyes will be on China, which has shown remarkable progress on renewable energy and emissions reduction, and India, where climate champions have found common cause with opponents of increasingly damaging air pollution. Patricia Espinsoa, the UN’s top climate official, warned that only “uneven progress” had been made so far on the 300-page rulebook for implementing the Paris targets, leaving the rest of the work for December. ...

Adopting low-carbon aims now would set developing countries on a course to a brighter future, added Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former economic minister of Nigeria and a member of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. “Now is the time to do this, before we lock in high-carbon infrastructure,” she said. “Now is the opportunity for real sustainable growth.”

 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/05/why-the-next-four-mo...

The 2018 New Climate Economy Report argues that the 21st century can provide opportunities for economic growth and sustainability than continuing down the fossil fuel path that threatens economic ruin because of global environmental devastation. 

We are on the cusp of a new economic era: one where growth is driven by the interaction between rapid technological innovation, sustainable infrastructure investment, and increased resource productivity. This is the only growth story of the 21st century. It will result in efficient, liveable cities; low-carbon, smart and resilient infrastructure; and the restoration of degraded lands while protecting valuable forests. We can have growth that is strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive.

Over the last decade, we have seen amazing technological and market progress driving the shift to a new climate economy. We are seeing real results in terms of new jobs, economic savings, competitiveness and market opportunities, and improved wellbeing for people worldwide. And this progress in the real economy has been delivered on the back of often weak or even contradictory policies in countries. How much more could be achieved in the coming years with clear, consistent policy signals?

In 2014, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate concluded that ambitious climate action does not need to cost much more than business-as-usual growth. The evidence today shows that climate action is even more attractive than we imagined then. This remarkable new growth opportunity is now hiding in plain sight. ...

The next 10-15 years are a unique ‘use it or lose it’ moment in economic history. We expect to invest about US$90 trillion in infrastructure to 2030, more than the total current stock. Ensuring that this infrastructure is sustainable will be a critical determinant of future growth and prosperity. The next 10-15 years are also essential in terms of climate: unless we make a decisive shift, by 2030 we will pass the point by which we can keep global average temperature rise to well below 2oC. 

We know that we are grossly under-estimating the benefits of this new growth story. Current economic models are deeply inadequate in capturing the opportunities of such a transformational shift, or the grave dangers of climate inaction.  We need a new class of economic models that can capture the powerful dynamics at play, including technological advances, preservation of essential natural capital, and the full health benefits of cleaner air and a safer climate including the containment of pandemic diseases.

While recognising the shortcomings of current economic models, analysis produced for this Report found that bold action could yield a direct economic gain of US$26 trillion through to 2030 compared with business-as-usual. And this is likely to be a conservative estimate.

Making such a shift would also limit dangerous climate change. With each passing year, the risks of unabated climate change mount. The last 19 years included 18 of the warmest years on record, worsening food and water security risks and increasing the frequency and severity of hazards such as wildfires. Disasters triggered by weather- and climate-related hazards were responsible for thousands of deaths and US$320 billion in losses in 2017. Climate change will lead to more frequent and more extreme events like these, including floods, droughts, and heat waves. It is increasingly our ‘new normal’.

The challenge now is to accelerate the transition to a better, more inclusive, new climate economy in five key economic systems: energy, cities, food and land use, water, and industry.

https://newclimateeconomy.report/2018/key-findings/

The full 2018 New Climate Economy Report can be found here: 

https://newclimateeconomy.report

Here are more details on the 2018 IPCC Report.

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitious end of the Paris agreementpledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.

The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5C study, which was launched after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears. ...

Policymakers commissioned the report at the Paris climate talks in 2016, but since then the gap between science and politics has widened. Donald Trump has promised to withdraw the US – the world’s biggest source of historical emissions – from the accord. The first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday put Jair Bolsonaro into a strong position to carry out his threat to do the same and also open the Amazon rainforest to agribusiness.

The world is currently 1C warmer than preindustrial levels. Following devastating hurricanes in the US, record droughts in Cape Town and forest fires in the Arctic, the IPCC makes clear that climate change is already happening, upgraded its risk warning from previous reports, and warned that every fraction of additional warming would worsen the impact.

Scientists who reviewed the 6,000 works referenced in the report, said the change caused by just half a degree came as a revelation. “We can see there is a difference and it’s substantial,” Roberts said.

At 1.5C the proportion of the global population exposed to water stress could be 50% lower than at 2C, it notes. Food scarcity would be less of a problem and hundreds of millions fewer people, particularly in poor countries, would be at risk of climate-related poverty.

At 2C extremely hot days, such as those experienced in the northern hemisphere this summer, would become more severe and common, increasing heat-related deaths (as seen in the 93 heat releated deaths this summer in Quebc) and causing more forest fires (like those occurring across Canada and especially in BC).

But the greatest difference would be to nature. Insects, which are vital for pollination of crops, and plants are almost twice as likely to lose half their habitat at 2C compared with 1.5C. Corals would be 99% lost at the higher of the two temperatures, but more than 10% have a chance of surviving if the lower target is reached.

Sea-level rise would affect 10 million more people by 2100 if the half-degree extra warming brought a forecast 10cm additional pressure on coastlines. The number affected would increase substantially in the following centuries due to locked-in ice melt. Oceans are already suffering from elevated acidity and lower levels of oxygen as a result of climate change. One model shows marine fisheries would lose 3m tonnes at 2C, twice the decline at 1.5C. ...

Time and carbon budgets are running out. By mid-century, a shift to the lower goal would require a supercharged roll-back of emissions sources that have built up over the past 250 years.

The IPCC maps out four pathways to achieve 1.5C, with different combinations of land use and technological change. Reforestation is essential to all of them as are shifts to electric transport systems and greater adoption of carbon capture technology.

Carbon pollution would have to be cut by 45% by 2030 – compared with a 20% cut under the 2C pathway – and come down to zero by 2050, compared with 2075 for 2C. This would require carbon prices that are three to four times higher than for a 2C target. But the costs of doing nothing would be far higher. ...

Although unexpectedly good progress has been made in the adoption of renewable energy, deforestation for agriculture was turning a natural carbon sink into a source of emissions. Carbon capture and storage projects, which are essential for reducing emissions in the concrete and waste disposal industries, have also ground to a halt. Reversing these trends is essential if the world has any chance of reaching 1.5C without relying on the untried technology of solar radiation modification and other forms of geo-engineering, which could have negative consequences. ...

Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, said the final document was “incredibly conservative” because it did not mention the likely rise in climate-driven refugees or the danger of tipping points that could push the world on to an irreversible path of extreme warming.

The report will be presented to governments at the UN climate conference in Poland at the end of this year. But analysts say there is much work to be done, with even pro-Paris deal nations involved in fossil fuel extraction that runs against the spirit of their commitments. Britain is pushing ahead with gas fracking, Norway with oil exploration in the Arctic, and the German government wants to tear down Hambach forest to dig for coal.

At the current level of commitments, the world is on course for a disastrous 3C of warming. The report authors are refuseing to accept defeat, believing the increasingly visible damage caused by climate change will shift opinion their way. ...

Regardless of the US and Brazil, he said, China, Europe and major cities could push ahead. “We can set an example and show what can be done. This is more about technology than politics.”

James Hansen, the former Nasa scientist who helped raised the alarm about climate change, said both 1.5C and 2C would take humanity into uncharted and dangerous territory because they were both well above the Holocene-era range in which human civilisation developed.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-...

Last week, on the eve of the release of IPCC report involving 721 experts from 90 countries  saying that we have twelve years to avoid a climate change global disaster, the Conservatives continued in their state of denial in spite of the reality of mountain pine beetle destroying tens of billions of dollars of our boreal forests as they march from BC across Canada having already reached Saskatchewan, wildfires that broke the record for land area burned in BC set just year and destroying 13,000 square kms (2.4 times the size of PEI), 93 people dying from the extreme heat in Quebec, torrential rains in Toronto causing massive flooding and hundreds of millions in insurance costs that will be passed onto consumers, historic floods in New Brunswick from the record high temperatures in the spring causing rapid melting of the snow coupled with massive rainfalls, thousands driven from their homes in Ontario and Saskatchewan by wildfires, sea level rise continuing to wipe out the Lennox Island reserve in Prince Edward Island, Arctic sea ice melting near the North Pole where it is oldest and thickest and previously not seen melting. And I am only touching a few of the massive problems climate change has hurled at us in Canada this year. Meanwhile the Conservatives evangelize "More fossil fuel production ... more ..."

A raucous crowd of more than 1,500 crammed into a Calgary convention centre Friday night to hear Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Jason Kenney, leader of Alberta's Opposition United Conservative Party, rail against the federal carbon tax.

"It's really, my friends the worst tax ever, a tax we can't afford, a job-killing tax that hikes up the price of services and goods and drives up the price of heating your homes," Ford told the anti carbon-tax rally. ...

Provincial resistance to Ottawa's carbon policy has been ramping up. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Ford met in Saskatoon on Thursday, where the two conservative leaders said they will continue to fight the tax together. To that end, Moe announced Saskatchewan will file for intervener status in Ontario's court challenge. Ontario had already pledged to support Saskatchewan's court challenge when the premiers met in New Brunswick in July. Moe's government has asked Saskatchewan's Court of Appeal to rule on whether the federal plan is constitutional.

Ford and Moe gained another ally Wednesday when Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister announced his province will not go ahead with a $25-a-tonne levy that was to come into effect in December.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/10/07/news/raucous-crowd-hears-for...

ETA: Hurricane Michael has hit the Florida Panhandle today with a speed of 155 mph, the fourth highest windspeed and the third lowest pressure of any hurricane to hit land in US history, making it a Category 4 hurricane, on the verge of becoming a Category 5 if its speeds reach 157 mph. This hurricane has the hidest windspeeds of any to hit the Florida Panhandle in all of the more than 150 years of recorded weather history for the area.

However, there is nothing to worry about in terms of global warming and this event - this is only the 27th once-in-500-year catastrophic weather event to hit the United States since 2008. Those 721 scientists from 90 countries on the UN's 195 courntry Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whose report two days ago said we have only twelve years to make previously unseen rapid changes in the world's economic system to avoid climate catastrophe - what the hell do they know? Drill, baby, drill. 

Supercharged by abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Michael slammed into the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday with potentially catastrophic winds of 155 mph, the most powerful hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland in nearly 50 years. ...

Its winds roaring, it battered the coastline with sideways-blown rain, powerful gusts and crashing waves. It swamped streets, bent trees, stripped away limbs and leaves, knocked out power, shredded awnings and sent other building debris flying. Explosions apparently caused by blown transformers could be heard. ...

The meteorological brute quickly sprang from a weekend tropical depression, becoming a furious Category 4 by early Wednesday, up from a Category 2 less than a day earlier. It was the most powerful hurricane on record to hit the Panhandle.

https://www.apnews.com/b4a51136559d44f589319ecfbf6f11a9

In the fall audit report just released by Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Julie Gelfand, she describes how the Trudeau Liberals have failed to meet their 2020 targets, and now do not even mention them as they talk about their 2030 targets. It sounds a lot like what the Chretien Liberals did after signing the 1997 Kyoto Accord. Run to the left and rule to the right by continuing to give fossil fuel companies, the world's wealthiest industry, billions in subsidies, while also cutting this industry's required emissions.

The federal government must put its plan to cut greenhouse gases and adapt to climate change into concrete action to mitigate the catastrophic effects of wildfires, floods and extreme weather events, Canada's environment watchdog warns. In a blunt fall audit report tabled in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Julie Gelfand said the government has failed to implement successive emissions-reduction plans, and is not prepared to adapt to the life-threatening, economically devastating impacts of a changing climate.

It is "crucial" that the government act now, she said. "It's time for change. The federal government needs to start doing the hard work to turn this latest broad framework into tangible and measurable actions," Gelfand concludes in her report.

The government released the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change in December 2016, which was endorsed by all provinces and territories except Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  But instead of presenting a detailed action plan to reach the 2020 target for reducing emissions, Gelfand said the government changed its focus to a new 2030 target.

In her report, Gelfand said measures to adapt to climate change can save lives, minimize damage and strengthen the economy, yet a 2011 adaptation policy framework was never implemented.

The federal government has not provided its departments and agencies with the critical tools and guidance to identify and respond to risks. ...

"If Canada is to adapt to a changing climate, much stronger leadership is needed," she said. ...

The audit says adaptation policies should be in place to ensure services to Canadians despite the unpredictable conditions, especially in northern and coastal and Indigenous communities most vulnerable to the effects of thawing permafrost, reduced sea ice, rising sea levels and severe wildfires. ...

Gelfand called on parliamentarians to hold the government to account on its climate change commitments to make sure the framework on climate change and clean growth bears "concrete results" for Canadians. ...

At the news conference, Gelfand said at this point the government would not meet its 2030 target without additional measures, but said it needs time to "bend the curve." She urged the government to more closely track the individual and collective effects of provincial and territorial policies and said she would likely have a better sense of progress in a follow-up audit in about two years' time.

NDP environment critic Linda Duncan said the report confirms the goverment is "all talk and no action" on climate change. "The Liberals adopted Stephen Harper's weak targets, and now it's clear that they will fail to meet the 2020 targets, yet alone the 2030 targets," she said in a statement.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/environment-commissioner-report-climate...

For those who haven't seen the damage caused by Hurricane Michael, whose wind speed at landfall was 248 Km/hr (the fourth fastest in US history), in Mexico Beach, Florida here is a video of the destruction in the community that  illustrates one of the problems that the world faces as ocean temperatures rise, thereby providing more energy to hurricanes. As sea level rise due to melting glaciers, this also means hurricane climate-change-reinforced winds bring storm surge walls of water into coastal communities. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13UoLG4assM

Despite the warning in the IPCC report that we have only 12 years to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in a major way, both the federal Liberals and BC NDP continue to push forward a LNG Canada terminal near Kitimat that makes reaching 2030 greenhouse emission reduction objectives extremely difficult. 

In B.C., the effects of climate change will manifest as wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Local government's such as Vancouver's have already begun preparing for these changes and related weather, spending millions on improved flood protection, for example.

Meanwhile, the 2018 wildfire season was one of the worst ever recorded in B.C. So far in the fiscal year 2018, the province has seen 2,076 wildfires burn 1.4 million hectares. A state of emergency was declared on August 15 and remained in effect until September 7.

This year is only one of two in the last 10 where B.C. saw more than one million hectares lost to wildfires. The other was 2017. In all of 2017, there were an estimated 1,353 wildfires in B.C. and 1.21 million hectares burned. The 10-year average for hectares burned annually is 151,000.

A July 2017 release from the provincial government notes that year's fires—which were recorded as "the worst in generations"—were due, "in large part," to climate change.

Last August, B.C. premier John Horgan warned that wildfire seasons of unprecedented scale and intensity could occur with increasing frequency.

"We're concerned, all of us, that this may be the new normal," he told reporters while touring areas affected by more than 50 "wildfires of note" that burned across the province that day.

Horgan's awareness of the problem has not dampened his government's enthusiasm for massive fossil-fuel projects that will add to B.C.'s greenhouse-gas emissions for generations to come.

On October 2, the B.C. NDP and federal Liberal government jointly announced they had approved a massive LNG Canada terminal and pipeline that will be constructed near Kitimat. According to the B.C. government's own estimates, the project "could add up to 3.45 megatonnes of carbon emissions" to the province's existing greenhouse gases.

Clean Energy Canada executive director Merran Smith argued that B.C.'s approval of the LNG Canada project mean the province will likely struggle to meet commitments it has made to reduce carbon emissions.

“Today’s announcement brings with it a defining challenge for B.C.: squaring the imperative to cut carbon pollution while accepting a huge new source of it," she said quoted in a release.

https://www.straight.com/news/1147741/un-sounds-alarm-climate-change-say...

Evidence suggests Manitoba will be moving toward weather extremes because of global warming because of the weakening of  the polar vortex due to global warming. 

If you think Manitoba will be sheltered from the dire consequences of global warming, or that a few extra degrees might actually be good for this frozen province, think again, say climate change experts. ...

The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a gloomy report last week, saying that the world is only a couple decades away from facing significant food shortages, extreme weather, and mass migration if we can't prevent global temperatures from reaching a critical threshold. ...

For Manitoba, that means more extreme weather patterns, like this summer's scorching hot temperatures — but also colder, more extreme winters, said David Barber, a University of Manitoba scientist and Canada research chair in arctic system science.

"The probability is that we're going to get hotter hot spells, and colder cold spells, wetter wet spells and dryer dry spells because we're changing the probability distribution of those types of climate systems," he said. "That's a problem for us, because we evolved on this planet because of the stable climate system that we're in right now."

The cold fall in Manitoba and record high temperatures to the east and west aren't just coincidence, he said, tying them to melting sea ice. He says air from the polar jet will come faster and be more persistent, holding cold, snowy, rainy weather in our area.

"This is one of the manifestations of climate change, in that sea ice changes are changing the way the polar vortex works," he said.  

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/climate-change-manitoba-un-repor...

Here's how the polar vortex is affected by global warming:

New research shows that some northern regions have been getting hit with these extreme cold spells more frequently over the past four decades, even as the planet as a whole has warmed. While it may seem counterintuitive, the scientists believe these bitter cold snaps are connected to the warming of the Arctic and the effects that that warming is having on the winds of the stratospheric polar vortex, high above the Earth's surface.

Here's what scientists involved in the research think is happening: The evidence is clear that the Arctic has been warming faster than the rest of the planet. That warming is reducing the amount of Arctic sea ice, allowing more heat to escape from the ocean. The scientists think that the ocean energy that is being released is causing a weakening of the polar vortex winds over the Arctic, which normally keep cold air centered over the polar region. That weakening is then allowing cold polar air to slip southward more often.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092017/polar-vortex-cold-snap-arcti...