I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives win the day on climate change even if they only represent the 1 in 3 voters who think climate change is not a problem. That's how FPTP works when there are more than two political parties and the vote gets split. During the 2015 election the Conservative vote stayed mostly the same while the other voters fluctuated between the Liberals and NDP.
I am really tired of political junkies treaing politics as if there is a deep chasm between one political party on the right, 2 or more parties on the left, and that this chasm is so vast and so wide that there is no way a leftie could convince someone on the right to join their team. Let's look at Western Canada as an example. It used to be very strongly NDP. Then 1993 came along, and Reform was able to capitalize on the populist sentiment that the NDP once represented. Now this region is very staunchly Conservative. Furthermore, Conservatives are always trying to appeal to working people and presenting a populist face, while the left just ignores this region. That is a key reason why BC ridings that voted NDP in 2005 voted Liberal this time around in spite of their corruption and that the current NDP-Green coalition is hanging by a weak thread.
Please, can someone on the left come and talk to us Western Canadians? The Greyhound cuts are disproportionately hurting the smaller communities that are key to Conservative victory, and this is an issue just crying out for federal government intervention. Show these communities in clear terms why the public policy programme advocated by the Conservatives is failing, and then maybe we can elect good MPs who will stand up for the communities rather than having to be embarassed to be from this part of the country.