France

voice of the damned wrote:

(In response to the discussion at the end of the last page...)

Given France's run-off style of presidential elections, a candidate with very little support CAN make it into the final  tournament, if the rest of the stars align just right in the first. See 2002 for the most notable case.

But there is no way I would bet money on Melenchon winning the second round, even if he manages to get in.

Melenchon's chances run about like this -- to get in the second round there needs to be a near tie with two centrist(ish) candidates, Le Pen and Melenchon with Melenchon and Le Pen slightly edging the centrists. Then with a straight up choice between Le Pen and Melenchon, centrist votes may choose to go to Melenchon rather than Le Pen.

Easy to imagine one of the two going in but both? This would require a strong anti-Europe vote. My guess is due to the pro and anti EU axis in voting, Melenchon would rise partly at the cost of Le Pen or visa versa. This means that very likely the final vote will be the centrist pro-Europe against either one of Melenchon or Le Pen. Very doubtful that Melenchon can get a run-off against Le Pen.

The sliver of possibility would be if two centrist candidates remain strong through the first vote -- so that you get Le Pen coming first, Melenchon second, centre/centre right/centre left third, and another centre right/centre left/centre fourth -- all very close. In this scenario you could then have the centre vote have to choose between Melenchon and Le Pen and there is a reasonable chance that they might choose Melenchon. This is very unlikely but not impossible. It would require Melenchon to get about 25% of the vote and have the rest distributed near perfectly. Say LePen 27, Melanchon 25, Centrist 24, Centrist 22, and a couple points to minor candidates.

The reason it is unlikely is that voters seeing the polls will likely move toward the stronger centrist pro EU canddiate to keep one on last ballot. It would take a deadlock so tight that the voters would be unable to make a strategic choice. It would also take Melenchon to get about a quarter of the vote with Le Pen a little more...

voice of the damned wrote:

For those of you who might have thought that May 68 was a spontaneous outpouring of youthful idealism against an authoritarian sociopolitcal order, apparaently it was actually a "coup" that overthrew all-around good-guy General De Gaulle. At least according to Sputnik News and globalresearch.ca....

Is this the reverse of the 1968 Color Revolution (the French May) that led to a coup that forced President Charles de Gaulle to resign leaving the Elysee to the “former” Rothschild’s employee (just like Macron) Pompidou?

Is this the reverse of the French Revolution? Is this the real French Revolution?

The context is Sputnik suggesting that the the former Chief Of General Staff General De Villiers should somehow take power away from Macron in the event of the current situation evolving into an "emergency". They even call their desired scenario "the reverse of the French Revolution", just so we're all clear about where they stand ideologically.

https://tinyurl.com/y9746ez7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And the reason this great hero of the left De Villiers quit? Because Macron wouldn't increase the military spending enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_de_Villiers#Disagreement_with_Macro...

Yellow Vest Women March Throughout France Against Austerity

Women "yellow jackets" all across France are mobilizing on Sunday to present the peaceful parts of the movement to the media that only reports violent events, they say.

Over 50,000 women gathered in front of the Place de la Bastille and in the Place de la République, in Paris, and others came together in Caen, Montceau-les-Mines, and Toulouse to demonstrate against President Emmanuel Macron’s austerity measures, including an increase in gas prices that the president eventually backed down after months of previous street demonstrations.

Organizers in Paris told the media: "Through this first women-only protest we wanted to have another channel of communication other than violence. All the media ever reports is the violence, and we are forgetting the root of the problem” which is the fight against austerity, said one protester, Karen, a 42-year-old nurse from Marseille told France 24.

Women in Toulouse marched with a large banner demanding Macron’s resignation. "Macron, If you do not come, we will come for you", read some of the protest banners. “Macron your goose is cooked, the chicks are in the street,” read other signs.....

Sounds interesting. But no url?

I didn't find the link advocating a run on the banks. Did find this one, though...

https://tinyurl.com/ybjk7pjs

Guess it's not entirely unexpected that "Deliberate bank runs are sound economic policy" and "Build that wall!!" would somehow go together.

NDPP wrote:

The Noose Tightens Around the EU's Neck

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/12/12/noose-tightens-around-...

"And Macron's response may be exactly the thing needed to destroy what is left of Imperial Europe's credibility. Does Brussels even care? Every action they take to try and hold this dysfunctional and tyrannical union together is only tightening the noose around their necks and hastening their eventual demise..."

https://seekingalpha.com/author/tom-luongo#regular_articles

I am a former research chemist by trade and an Austrian Economist by study and a market analyst by choice. For the past four years I have been a Senior Financial Editor with Newsmax Media publishing my thoughts on where markets, central banks, gold and geopolitics meet and explode.

NDPP wrote:

Notice how Bekayne never does this in the case of the reactionary propaganda he and his ilk post from the Guardian, WaPo or NYT?

I take requests.

"The #GiletsJaunes protests today were larger than ever..."

https://twitter.com/YourMarkLubbers/status/1084148244601556995

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/the-yellow-vests-are-at-the-vangua...

I'd like to see a debate between those on the left trying to appropriate the Gilets Jaunes and those on the right trying to appropriate the Gilets Jaunes. But it'll probably never happen. Neither side would want to admit that "their" movement isn't as large as they claim.

Most interesting. Thanks for posting.

The yellow vest movement could have gone international but was defeated in the international arena.

In France it is a movement largely from the left. In other countries it is being dominated by right and far right forces.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-far-right-is-trying-to-co-opt-the-yell...

It is very possible that this is not a misunderstanding of the movement from those on the right but a purposeful re-definition in order to break the momementum from going international.

Videos coming out of France of people withdrawing their money from the big banks! (and vid)

https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1088563285530734592

"A massive French bank run is underway and the mainstream media is nowhere to be seen."

This was going to happen sooner or later.

https://twitter.com/Julesbdo/status/1089162166551363585?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Macron is a skinny little-trained seal in a circus where we cannot even see the ringmaster. Trump dances in his clown suit, the Brit leadership hop aboard a Brexit bicycle meant to distract, and Europe’s dancing big top whores do the “can-can” dance to the surrounding audience – the rest of us. We’re mesmerized by it all, by the show of shapely legs and firey rings tossed in the air. But the reality is blood for money, and the Yellow Vests’ boos are muffled by the wild cheers of New Yorkers or Londoners bored fleckless by austere existence. For me, I would like to know the deals underneath, not to prevent them necessarily, but just to hear what and how these men justify the unjustifiable. Cyprus’ Nicos Anastasiades and Macron? The lever the globalists are applying on Egypt? What role are those silent Israeli psychopaths playing in all this? Even experts can only surmise. But what we do know for certain, is that none of these people have the slightest concern for you, me, or the rest of humanity.

And that, my friends, is the “I told you so” you should have harkened to when Marine Le Pen got run out of the show.
https://journal-neo.org/2019/01/31/dear-france-i-told-you-le-pen-really-mattered/

Gilets Jaunes “Assembly of Assemblies” calls for massive strike

We, Gilets Jaunes of the roundabouts, parking lots, squares, assemblies and demonstrations, gathered on January 26 and 27 for an “Assembly of Assemblies”, which united members of over a hundred Gilets Jaunes delegations from across France, all answering the call of the Gilets Jaunes of Commercy.

Since November 17, 2018, from the smallest villages deep in the country side to the biggest cities of France, we rose up against this deeply violent, unjust and unbearable society. We shall no longer be treated that way! We revolt against the cost of life, poverty, instability and misery. We wish for our relatives, friends, families and children, that they all will be able to live in dignity. Currently, 26 billionaires possess as much as half of the world population — this is totally unacceptable.

Let’s share wealth and not misery! Down with the social inequalities! We demand the immediate increase of wages, of the social allowances, of the subsidies and pensions; we demand the unconditional right for lodging, health, education and free public services for all! It is for all these rights that we occupy the roundabouts across the country on a daily basis, that we organize direct actions, demonstrations and arrange public debates. With our yellow vests, we are reclaiming the power to speak, we who never had it before.

quote:

We are as strong as the diversity of our debates. At this very moment, hundreds of assemblies are elaborating and proposing their own demands. These assemblies talk about real democracy, social justice, tax issues, working conditions, ecological justice and the end of discrimination. Among the most debated claims and strategical proposals we find: the end of misery in all its forms, the transformation of the institutions (with projects like the Citizen Initiated Referendum, constituent assembly, the end of the privileges of the elected representatives), the ecological transition (energetic scarcity, industrial pollution), equality and the recognition of anyone no matter what nationality (handicapped people, gender issues, an end to the isolation of the populous suburbs, neighborhoods, rural areas and overseas territories).

We, Yellow Vests, are inviting anyone to join us with their own abilities and capacities. We call to pursue the actions with Act 12 against police violence in front of the police stations and the Acts 13, 14 etc… We call for the continuation of the occupation of the roundabouts and the blocking of the economy, to engage in a massive and unlimited strike starting on February 5, 2019.

We call for the creation of popular committees in the workplaces, in study places and everywhere else in order that this strike could led from the grassroots by the strikers themselves, and not by the unions. Let’s take the matter in our own hands! Don’t stay alone, join us!

So he's now more popular than he was before the protests started. Same polling firm shows he would be re-elected 56-44 over Le Pen. 

bekayne wrote:

So he's now more popular than he was before the protests started. Same polling firm shows he would be re-elected 56-44 over Le Pen. 

If Marine Le Pen is now the assumed default candidate against the "neo-liberals", that pretty much guarantees that En Marche or whoever succeeds them will win elections for the foreseeable futute.  

France Recalls Rome Ambassador Over 'Baseless Attacks'

https://news.sky.com/story/france-recalls-rome-ambassador-over-baseless-...

"...Earlier this week, Mr DiMaio met supporters of a yellow vest group thinking of running in the European elections in May. France's yellow vest movement has become the biggest challenge to Mr Macron's presidency, protesting against his economic reforms, which are seen as favouring the rich while squeezing the household incomes of ordinary people."

'Macron Unleashed Violence Against Yellow Vests, Each Casualty Is On Him' - French Author & Academic

https://on.rt.com/9o1l

"Emmanuel Macron has chosen not to maintain order, but to suppress public protests,' writes Michael Onfray in his blog, in an attempt at a definitive account of the protests that have gripped France. Onfray writes that the protests did not begin as a 'peasants' revolt of disgruntled right-wingers' refusing to pay an environmental fuel tax - as it is being portrayed by newspapers - but was simply a result of ordinary French saying 'We cannot pay!' Instead of listening however, Macron decided to escalate the conflict 'using it for his own benefit and the interests of the Maastricht Camp..."

'This is an order that is strong against the weak and weak against the strong. When the rich call the poor names, it is a variation of old themes, that the working classes are dangerous classes. This is the song all bourgeois establishments sing when they are scared,' writes Onfray.

The Imploding EU: Built for the Rich Not the Poor!

Unlike Canada where deceiving ourselves is always the preferred option.....

Be patient! As the forces of desperation overwhelm, and spring thaw releases the energy...be prepared!

voice of the damned wrote:

bekayne wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

bekayne wrote:

So he's now more popular than he was before the protests started. Same polling firm shows he would be re-elected 56-44 over Le Pen. 

If Marine Le Pen is now the assumed default candidate against the "neo-liberals", that pretty much guarantees that En Marche or whoever succeeds them will win elections for the foreseeable futute.  

Melanchon polls even lower than Macron and Le Pen

I'm far from an expert on French politics, but my guess would be you're more likely to see the revival of either the Socialists or one of the Gaullist parties as an alternative to En Marche, rather than any continued rise in fortune for either the National Front or LFI.

The same poll which had Macron and Le Pen in the high 20s for the 1st round had the Gaullist at 8% and the Socialist at 3%

Anybody here believe in karma? Vietnam Cambodia and Laos, among many others. 

Gilets Jaunes and the security state

Paris every Saturday becomes a battleground. Riot cops cordon off large sections of the centre of the city with temporary fences and armoured vehicles resembling tanks. On the 15th January, I followed a few hundred people on a march which ended in several large groups of Gilets Jaunes bottlenecked into the streets feeding into a cross roads near the Elyseé palace. People were chanting peacefully, angrily certainly, but peacefully. They were making demands for democracy and redistribution of wealth and calling for the RIC (citizen’s referendum initiative) which aims to add a mechanism for direct democracy to the French constitution. You don’t have to think it’s a good idea to see that to demand it in public space is a legitimate form of democratic engagement. These demands were aimed at bringing power closer to the people and making society more equal. The state’s response was swift and indicative of the wider values of the capitalist class. As more people tried to join together to form bigger groups in the crossroads the first tear gas grenade pin was pulled.

quote:

The state has been very keen to try and repress these protests because the aims of the movement are anathema to Macron’s agenda of privatisations and deregulation. Macron is committed to shrinking the state. He has attempted to privatise the state run rail company the SNCF and teh national lottery. The Gilets Jaunes however favour much more state involvement, one of their most frequent demands has been for the nationalisation of the motorways, and a routinely circulated graphic of demands included a section on the complete halting of all privatisations. The state thought that if they could crush the protests quickly through use of force, the damage to tourism revenues would be minimal as central Paris would not have to be cordoned off each week and turned into a battleground. What we have seen here with the repression attempts is the scared reaction of capital when its power is challenged from below.

The security establishment is one of the areas of the French state best safeguarded from austerity. In the wake of the wave of terror attacks in 2015/16 the various departments of the French police and gendarmerie have received boosts in funding and extra powers that notionally help deal with terrorism. While the coercive arm of the state thrives, it was announced in 2017 that 120,000 public sector jobs would be axed, the first day of sick leave would go unpaid and swingeing cuts to housing, pensions and other social welfare payments are planned for 2019 in a doomed bid to eliminate the deficit. This isn’t anathema to the logic of austerity – it’s perfectly in keeping with a programme which ensures that wealth is funnelled directly into the pockets of the wealthy – and preventing those hit hardest by this system from having their say.

Yellow Vests and Red Unions Strike Together

quote:

Moreover, the Yellow Vests, who have been a painful thorn in Macron’s side since last November, were now demonstrating together with the French labour unions, whom he thought he had tamed last Spring. This convergence came in response to a call for a one-day “General Strike” issued by the Confédération générale du travail (CGT) and Solidaires, who for the first time invited “any Yellow Vests who felt like it” to join. In the event, quite a few did feel like it, despite the CGT’s previous hostility to the Yellow Vests and despite their own fundamental suspicion of all “representative” structures, like established parties and unions (whom the Yellow Vests justifiably fear would attempt to co-opt them, speak in their name, and sell them out).

A Day of Action and Convergence

For a “first date” the one-day Strike came off very well, somewhat to the surprise of both parties. And if this tentative Red-Yellow alliance continues to solidify (and there is every indication that it will), France will likely become ungovernable and the ruling classes will be up against the wall. What might happen next is rich in possibility, for the French, with their long history of popular revolutions, have been singularly inventive in coming up with new political arrangements. For now, let us look more closely at what may, in retrospect, be an historic day.

The Strike began at exactly midnight when a rowdy crowd of 200-300 demonstrators near Paris blocked the giant Rungis produce market (which replaced Les Halles, the legendary “Belly of Paris”), cutting off food to the capital with trucks lining up on the outskirts. You can see the Yellow Vests among the Red flags of the CGT in this video from Le Parisien. They even set up a barricade. In the early hours, there were also blockages at the airport of Nantes and at the University there, at a key toll-gate near Toulouse, while in Grenoble transport was disturbed all morning.

All told there were demonstrations in at least 160 different localities, all different in size and conduct, mostly improvised by people on the spot at the last minute. There were big ones in the Channel ports Le Harvre, Rouen and Caen. In Strasbourg about 1500, in Lyon 5000 including 500 Yellow vests. In Marseille the Yellow Vest march converged with the CGT at the Stock Exchange, a shift of targets for the Yellow Vests from government to finance capital.

In Paris, instead of the usual union march through the popular quarters from the Bastille to Nation, the CGT-led strikers invaded the fancy Right Bank territory, violently contested for twelve weeks by the Yellow Vests, marching boldly up the Rue de Rivoli with its luxurious shop-windows (and construction sites with bricks lying around). They then held an impromptu rally at a major intersection, tying up traffic and baffling the police.1

All told there were demonstrations in at least 160 different localities, all different in size and conduct, mostly improvised by people on the spot at the last minute. There were big ones in the Channel ports Le Harvre, Rouen and Caen. In Strasbourg about 1500, in Lyon 5000 including 500 Yellow vests. In Marseille the Yellow Vest march converged with the CGT at the Stock Exchange, a shift of targets for the Yellow Vests from government to finance capital.

In Paris, instead of the usual union march through the popular quarters from the Bastille to Nation, the CGT-led strikers invaded the fancy Right Bank territory, violently contested for twelve weeks by the Yellow Vests, marching boldly up the Rue de Rivoli with its luxurious shop-windows (and construction sites with bricks lying around). They then held an impromptu rally at a major intersection, tying up traffic and baffling the police.1

Here in Montpellier, as elsewhere in France, the crowd was big, but no bigger than some of the previous Saturday Yellow Vest demos – as was the case all over France. But this Tuesday it was largely a union crowd. On the other hand, after weeks of gassing peaceful protestors, the police presence was extremely discrete, and one Gendarme was filmed explaining to the Yellow Vests protestors that the Gendarmes had “nothing against them,” that his family supported the movement, explaining that they were soldiers and sworn to obey orders (the Gendarmerie being under the military). The Yellow Vests answered that they “had nothing against the Gendarmes either.” See the amazing video.

Paris 'Anti-Capitalist' (and vid)

https://twitter.com/Gerrrty/status/1101840401122627584

"The atmosphere is festive at the head of procession, rue de Boulainvilliers..."

Good to see some people's issues last longer than the msm news cycle.