The incredible miscalculation by Trudeau and co. One of them will need to take a fall

I am going to have to change my mind on how much damage this will do.

I said it was not a big deal but that was before Raybould resigned and before Butts resigned. Now there is so much smoke here that Liberals might die of smoke inhalation even if nobody can see the fire.

If this continues very long the Liberals will be in tough to win the election.

Sadly, it probably means a CPC government.

History shows no improvement on progressive issues whether the Libs or Cons are in power because the corporate agenda corrupts both parties. It's just that the Trudeau machine is incredibly inept at covering up abuses.

The NDP is in disray and has been since Jack Layton passed on. Until they can find a leader like Jack, they will continue to trip over their own feet and eat their own young. Standing on principle is great but standing against the assaults of the corporate-backed Libs or Cons with moral authority in one hand and their ass in the other is suicidal.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I am going to have to change my mind on how much damage this will do.

I said it was not a big deal but that was before Raybould resigned and before Butts resigned. Now there is so much smoke here that Liberals might die of smoke inhalation even if nobody can see the fire.

If this continues very long the Liberals will be in tough to win the election.

Sadly, it probably means a CPC government.

I'm still coming down on the side of "no long-term damage". I doubt the average voter knew who Gerald Butts was prior to his resignation, and a lot of them probably still don't, even now.

You may recall that a cabinet minister had to resign over peppergate in the late 90s, after a New Democrat MP recorded him talking about the government's strategy to a total stranger on an airplane. Chretien still managed to win a majority after that.

voice of the damned wrote:

I'm still coming down on the side of "no long-term damage". I doubt the average voter knew who Gerald Butts was prior to his resignation, and a lot of them probably still don't, even now.

You may recall that a cabinet minister had to resign over peppergate in the late 90s, after a New Democrat MP recorded him talking about the government's strategy to a total stranger on an airplane. Chretien still managed to win a majority after that.

I agree. At first I got caught up in the hype but then I remembered that security bill. The one 85% of Canadians were against and the media were in an uproar about. The Liberals voted in favor of it and promised to change it. That story died within weeks never to be revived. It had zero impact on the election. 

This story is an irritant for certain segments of the population that would probably not have voted Liberal anyway. 

People may want to consider how close the margins are and how easy it is to move from one to lead to another.

Here is the situation the Liberals find themselves in:

BC - polarized on the environment and Indigenous concerns on one side and Conservatives on the other. NDP has its best hope there. So do the Greens. The Liberals have not satisfied anyone. Any increase in NDP or Green vote there will cost some Liberals either to Green or NDP seats or to Conservatives.

Alberta and Saskatchewan: A real polarization there also bu with more going to Conservatives. The Liberals are not dead but the chances of close seconds replacing first are a real possibility.

Manitoba: It looks like the Liberals might be fine with what they ahve there more or less.

Ontario: The Liberals are really in a tough spot due to the damage to the brand of the Wynne government and the province is quite right wing. Significant losses could come to the Liberals in Ontario. The smell of corruption on the Liberal party in Ontario is far too recent. Many people are very confused about federal and provincial politics in Ontario when it comes to parties -- perhaps more than other regions and the province tracks federal politics closely.

Quebec: The Liberals are not safe at all. Party fortunes in the province track up and down quickly. When an election is called, people will look at the new leadership of the BQ and it could come back very quickly. If you look at the discussions between the provincial CAQ and the BQ you can get a clue about this. The NDP being reduced could free up voters not prepared to go to the Liberals that could easily go to the BQ. More splits mean that ridings the Liebrals may have won before could end up as close contests.

Atlantic: They have only one direction to go but down. Down they will go as people have short memories. I expect that 1/3 of the seats will go Conservative and the NDP may even win back 1-2 not through increase in vote but due to a closere Lib-Conservative vote where the Liberals blew the Conservatives away and the NDP along with them.

There is a real possibility that we will see a result something like a bare CPC majority where the BQ comes in with 30 seats, The NDP with 10 (no party status) the Greens with 4, the Liberals with 124 and the Conservatives with 170.

It is even more likely that the Conservatives will win a minority with the BQ holding the balance of power. The chance of a Liberal majority or government at all could come down to holding seats in Ontatio that might prove more difficult than they think and whether or not the BQ are able to come back with the help of the CAQ.

There are many reasons why the BQ could come back at this point -- even without a hard tilt towards separation. They share a number of the CAQ's reactionary attitude to immigration; they will pound away al any sense of Liberal corruption; they will pound away on the issue of CAQ's demands like single tax forms which could prove very popular.

It would take very, very little damage to the Liberals to add to the yellow vest type intolrance, to the anti immigrant movements in Quebec and Ontario to put the Liberals who regularly poll in the mid thirties down into the high twenties and many seats away from government. A swing of 5 points puts Liberals out of question for government.

Matin N wrote

Until they can find a leader like Jack,

Huh I thought the NDP did?

Unless, what you meant by a “leader like Jack”, you meant a white guy from privileged lineage. 

I think Bernier will take a chunk of the CPC vote.  It might not translate into many PPC seats (I could see them getting 10-20 easily enough) but I think it will take a bunch of seats from CPC.

I could see Libs gaining seats in Quebec at the expense of the NDP.

I think Ontario is hard to predict.  I suspect the ONDP having so many MLAs could help the NDP there, particularly in Toronto.  I think Doug Ford can hurt the urban Con vote, although rural Ontario and urban Ontario are two different worlds.  I don't know how many rural ON seats the Libs have so not sure there are many to lose.