By-Election Predictions / Results / Discussions for Feb 25, 2019

Burnaby South: I think the SNC Lavalin controversy will save Singh and he will win.

Outremont: I think that the Liberals still win in a squeaker, but of all the by-elections I think that this one has the biggest possibility of an upset because the NDP have been working hard for this seat and have a great candidate, while I have heard nothing from the Liberals. I think the Liberals are taking this win for granted making them lazy and that hubris may cost them.

York Simcoe: conservatives win.

I agree with a prediction Wage Zombie posted in another thread. Jagmeet wins Burnaby South and pretty handily at that, but PPC shows surprising momentum. I could definitely see the Liberals end up finishing third (or worse). Libs pick up Outremont relatively easily, though, and Conservatives win York Simcoe.

Looking forward a bit, I think the NDP may get a bit of a boost in the polls this year with Jagmeet entering Parliament and Liberal scandals overtaking the NDP's bad news stories from last year. But without a substantial uptick in fundraising the NDP will remain an also-ran in the election this fall. It will likely lose most if not all of its seats in Quebec. Meanwhile the divided right will fail to capitalize on Trudeau's weakness and the Liberals will win another term, although they may be reduced to a minority. The Bloc will return to official party status and the Greens will win at least three seats.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Actual performance in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance.

I agree with the bulk of predictions so far. Singh will win Burnaby South because of the SNC scandal weakening the Liberals. Liberals take Outremont, dealing a major blow against any chance of recovery for NDP fortunes in Quebec. Cons easily hold York Simcoe. 

But to carry on robbie_dee's forward-looking predictions, I think that whether or not Singh's arrival in Parliament generates any uptick for the NDP in the polls, the party will remain an also-ran in the election, losing almost every Quebec seat (possible survivors might be Boulerice, Brosseau and Caron), while also losing a scattering of others across the country (in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and perhaps also some in BC). The party will have no significant gains anywhere to make up for the losses. The NDP will maintain party status but likely won't have more than about 20 seats. Singh will resign as leader (willingly or not) and much hand-wringing and soul-searching will ensue as to the purpose, intentions and future of the party as the survivors try to pick up the pieces and chart a new course.

And really...how healthy is it for the NDP to accept the "2011 in Quebec was just Jack and Mulcair-it doesn't COUNT as an NDP breakthrough!" meme?  If the party agrees to that, if it buys into the notion that the 2011 gains weren't valid, weren't anything-what possibility is there for the NDP to ever make a comeback in Quebec in ANY future election?

Something REAL happened in Quebec in 2011.  Some of it was Jack...but it wasn't ALL Jack.  Psychic freeing occurred, if only for a moment.  It showed that realignment in Quebec is possible and that sustained realignment could be achieved if the party were to set up a real long-term organizational presence there.   That's not going to happen if the party accepts the toxic Lib-Con notion that 2011 wasn't in any way authentic or replicable and that what happened then can simply be forever erased from history.

I predict Jagmeet will win by a significant margin, with the CPC guy coming in second.  

I don't know what's happening in Outremont, but I lived in that riding for years and helped out during the Mulcair campaign in 2007.  It was awesome, all hands on deck stuff, and happened at a time of significant instability and unpopularity for the PLC, when the BQ was one its way out.  Numerous people in the NDP's cauces are pessimistic about our chance of winning in Outremont, so my guess is that we're looking at a fairly lopsided loss.   Polls close at 9h30, so it'll be a couple hours still before there's some indication of which way it's headed.  

NorthReport wrote:

Do not all the polls close at the same time taking into consideration time zone differences? In Burnaby South the polls are open 7 am to 7 pm

Back in the olden days it was a 3 hour gap between Ont/Que and BC but since the ban on reporting early results was thrown out they've squeezed them together.

So Simcoe and Outremont are decided for the Conservatives and Liberals respectively. But still no results for Burnaby and now I'm worried because the Liberals performed pretty well in both of the other ridings.

The CBC News Decision Desk is projecting that Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan will be the winner tonight in the riding of Outremont

Maxime Bernier might be the only high profile big name candidate they need. Much like Preston Manning.

R.E.Wood wrote:

Final numbers may well vary, but I'd say that under 38% is the weakest win the NDP could have possibly pulled off in Burnaby South, especially given that the party poured all its resources into the riding and Singh campaigned there for months in advance of the vote, and this result won't give the party any confidence heading into the general election.

I read somewhere on twitter that the turnout in Burnaby-South was under 40%, so that might have something to do with the results.

Mighty Middle wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The only reason the Liberals are in 2nd place is that the People’s Party has more than 50% of the Conservative vote in Burnaby South

That’s a staggering result and a disasterous nite for the Cons

I know Conservatives are going to point to York-Simcoe & Outermount and says the PPC had no traction there.However Burnaby-South has proven if you get a high profile candidate, you can take away a TON of votes from the Conservatives.

So if the PPC lines up dozens and dozens of high profile, big name candidates that is bad news for the Conservatives.

They'd better not point to Outremont. It's their 2nd worst result there since 1935.

I suspect that some NDP voters went Green...

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

I'm down in dumps. Worked for Julia all day yesterday.

lagatta4 wrote:

I suspect that some NDP voters went Green...

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

I'm down in dumps. Worked for Julia all day yesterday.

You’re a real trooper lagatta! I hope Julia took you out for dinner last night. Her team deserved it!

Winning by 12% is a perfectly fine win, especially considering the margin was a lot more narrow in the general.

*

lagatta4 wrote:

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

That's somewhat of an understatement, no?

Outremont is one of the lowest-income federal ridings in Canada.

The 2016 census results showed that the median household income in Outremont riding was $49,070 - not quite among the 10 poorest, which ranged from $43K to $48K, but close. The overall Canadian household average was over $70,000.

Source: Census 2016 and the House of Commons: Income

wage zombie wrote:

What would you like to see from Singh over the next eight months?

Thanks for the question, wage zombie. I'd like to see lots of things from Singh. In no particular order:

- I want him to be up-to-date on all the issues, and on all party policies, so he can avoid looking like a deer in the headlights during media interviews, avoid having to ask other MP's the answers to the tough questions, and avoid contradicting party policy.

- I want him to make decisive decisions that reflect a progressive, left viewpoint, rather than his usual delay tactics and wishy-washy statements.

- I'd love if he stopped being "deeply offended", "deeply disturbed" or "deeply disappointed" over every little thing. Save the hyperbole for when it's actually appropriate - otherwise he's the "boy who cried wolf".

- I'd like him to reinstate Erin Weir as an NDP MP and allow him to run in the next election as the NDP candidate, and at the same time he needs to make amends with most of the NDP in Saskatchewan, where he is currently unwelcome -- an unacceptable state for a federal leader of the party to have placed himself. (Oh, and he could do the same thing in Alberta, too.)

- I'd like him to work harder in Quebec. The NDP is on the verge of losing every single seat in the province - that has to be taken more seriously.

- I'd like him to stop dismissing the prairie provinces entirely (when he isn't insulting them specifically), and value NDP voters in those provinces, and the potential to hold the current NDP seats in those provinces, as well as the opportunities to elect more NDP MP's in those provinces. Singh has written the prairie provinces all off, which I find "deeply offensive" (to borrow a phrase!).

- I'd like him to demonstrate some of his self-professed talents as a fundraiser, which have been sadly lacking since he won the leadership.

- I'd like him & the party itself to craft a genuinely compelling platform that will motivate and excite progressive people. Stop with the Doom-and-Gloom (I'm sick of him telling us how terrible things are in the country) and offer a set of exciting, positive policies to move Canada forward, and don't do it with the moronic "love and courage" pablum. We don't need meaningless platitudes. We need a concrete platform for progress and visionary change that will lead the world, benefit all of our country, and not leave behind workers and people in provinces Singh doesn't seem to value very much.

- I'd like him to have clear lines based on principle, not political expediency. For example, his contradiction between his support for LNG and his refusal to support Trans-Mountain. How does he justify one and not the other? (Well, I know how he tries to - I've seen him talk about it, but political expediency is the true answer.) People like Svend Robinson have made an unequivocal stance based on principle... so have people like Rachel Notley, who's made a stand based on pragmatism... like them or not - agree with their viewpoints or not - they have made clear unwavering choices. Singh is a fence-sitter, and not a particularly good one IMO.

There's probably a lot more I'd like him to do... or not do... but those are the things that come immediately to mind.

[Originally posted in this thread.]

kropotkin1951 wrote:

What I find interesting is the fact that Singh as a national leader obviously affected the vote in Burnaby South. In Outremont the voter turmout was 21.4% and in York-Simcoe it was 19.9%  In Burnaby South the turnout was low but at 29.9% it was a 50% bump over the other by-elections. Clearly the voters in Burnaby were more engaged in these by-elections.

"More engaged"?? Not sure what that means. Surely you've read lagatta's graphic description of the hazardous conditions on Montréal sidewalks in recent days. Many people, especially older folks who have more time and are more likely to vote in a byelection, simply stayed home. Especially when everyone knows what the result will be anyway.

In 2007, by contrast, 37% voted in the Outremont byelection. I guess we were a lot more engaged then?

Unionist wrote:

[Originally posted in this thread.]

kropotkin1951 wrote:

What I find interesting is the fact that Singh as a national leader obviously affected the vote in Burnaby South. In Outremont the voter turmout was 21.4% and in York-Simcoe it was 19.9%  In Burnaby South the turnout was low but at 29.9% it was a 50% bump over the other by-elections. Clearly the voters in Burnaby were more engaged in these by-elections.

"More engaged"?? Not sure what that means. Surely you've read lagatta's graphic description of the hazardous conditions on Montréal sidewalks in recent days. Many people, especially older folks who have more time and are more likely to vote in a byelection, simply stayed home. Especially when everyone knows what the result will be anyway.

In 2007, by contrast, 37% voted in the Outremont byelection. I guess we were a lot more engaged then?

I would think so with a high profile Liberal defector taking on the federal party in one its strongholds. I am sorry I did not factor in the nasty Montreal weather. I am sorry i pissed you off again I was merely replying to someone who was saying that the presence of Singh had no real effect on the voters.