NB politics pot pourri 3

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Caissa wrote:

Cardy is probably joining the PCs.

And he's running for them:




Jennifer McKenzie, who tried to move the New Brunswick NDP back to its socialist roots, has resigned as party leader, a day after members voted to hold a leadership convention before the end of August.


In a statement Monday, McKenzie said she was resigning "effective immediately."


On Sunday at Moncton's Darts Club, 95 delegates took part in the vote on whether to hold a leadership convention.

The vote was close, with 52 in favour and 43 against, said Danny Légère, who holds a labour seat on the NDP provincial council. He said the results of the 2018 election definitely affected the leadership review. 


From the same article:

McKenzie campaigned on a return to the NDP's socialist beginnings, promising universal childcare, pay equity, home care, better nursing home ratios and pharmacare.

This was a shift from what former leader Dominic Cardy pushed for. He alienated some people by endorsing the Energy East pipeline and distancing himself from unions. He's now a minister in the Progressive Conservative government.


In 2018, the NDP received more than 19,000 votes provincewide, a 60 per cent drop from 2014 and its worst result in a New Brunswick election in 44 years.  

Okay technically those are socialist policies but it isn't Socialism. I am glad they are to some extent because Medicare is popular and it is socialist. But in the context of this article they seem to be blaming "Socialism" for the NDP's losses. Nothing in the article supports that argument. I think it is more likely the Energy East issue. Or maybe voters didn't like her. I just don't like the inference that her socialist positions were the reason for the loss without some sort of supporting information. 



New date is  June 6, 2020 - they mention up to 10 interested candidates! Is that real? does anyone in NB or the Atlantic know any names? and can start to share more about any of the potential candidates? Looks like campaigning can start now. 


I hope Jean-Maurice Landry jumps in to build the party from the Acadia-Bathurst area first 


There were no large movements in the December Narrative poll compared to September in New Brunswick. The Greens are third with 21% (up 3%) and the NDP is up 4%, but only to 7%.

If an election were held today, New Brunswickers indicate the PCs would garner the highest level of support, at 37%, which is consistent with results from August 2019.  The gap between the PCs and the Liberal Party is now six points, with the Liberals sitting at 31% of decided voter support (compared with 29% in August).

This quarter sees the highest proportion of decided voters who say they would vote for the Green Party, with 21% indicating this choice, compared with 18% this summer. The New Democratic party holds onto 7% of the decided vote (compared with 3% in August), and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick drops five points, down to 3% from 8% last quarter.

On the question of which party leader voters would most prefer as premier, Higgs maintains his command of the leadership ratings with 27% support (compared with 29% in August), while the newly minted Kevin Vickers of the Liberals garners 21% of the vote, up 5 points since August. Green Party leader David Coon holds onto 17% of residents’ favour, down 4 points, followed by 7% for Kris Austin of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick. Interim NDP leader MacKenzie Thomason received 4% of the vote.



PC Premier Blaine Higgs popularity has declined slightly but party support is up 2% to 39% according to the latest poll. The Liberals are down 3% to 28%, Greens are down 1% to 20%, and the NDP are up 1% to 8%. All parties support changes are within the margin of error. 

Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs declined slightly this past quarter, with less than half reporting satisfaction (48%, from 53% in November), according to the latest survey by Narrative Research. This reflects the lowest level of satisfaction with the government recorded in the past year. The percentage of residents expressing complete dissatisfaction has risen six points (up to 17% from 11%).

Despite lower satisfaction levels, if an election were held today, decided New Brunswick voters indicate the PCs would receive the highest level of support, at 39%, which is consistent with results from the last two quarters.  The gap between the PCs and the Liberal Party has widened to 11 percentage points, with the Liberals garnering 28% of decided voter support.  

The Green Party continues to hold two in ten decided voters (20%), with the New Democratic Party maintaining 8% and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick with 4%, all relatively unchanged since the previous quarter. Among all residents, three in ten do not know who they would vote for (28%), and three percent do not plan to vote.

In terms of preference for premier, results are consistent with the past quarter. Higgs is preferred by one-quarter of residents (26% compared with 27% in November), with two in ten voicing preference for either Vickers (20% compared with 21% in November) or Coon (18% compared with 17% in November). The NDP's Thomason receives 5% of the vote, and Austin receives 3%.



Unsurprisingly, with the low levels of Covid infection Premier Blaine Higgs and the PCs retain high popularity in the polls. 

Overall satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government led by Premier Blaine Higgs remains high and is generally consistent with pre-election results (72% compared with 76% in August 2020). These elevated results likely reflect public’s general satisfaction with the government’s handling of the pandemic.

“This has been an extremely challenging time to govern.  With increased caseloads and evidence of COVID-19 community spread, the New Brunswick government has introduced difficult restrictions on businesses and travel that have significant impact,” said Margaret Brigley, Narrative Research’s CEO.  “Despite those actions, the levels of overall satisfaction enjoyed by the provincial government since the pandemic are unprecedented and suggest that New Brunswickers are generally supportive of government actions.”

While satisfaction levels are high across the province, some regional differences are evident.  In particular, those in Southern New Brunswick express a somewhat higher level of satisfaction (78%) than those in Moncton and area (73%) and Northern New Brunswick (64%). ...

 Results indicate that if an election were held today, New Brunswick decided voters would most likely favor the PCs (41%, compared with 44% last quarter). Support for the Liberals is generally consistent with last quarter (28%, compared with 33%), while support for the Green Party sits at 20% (compared with 14% in August 2020).  The NDP receives 6% of mentions (compared with 7% last quarter), while the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick gathers 4% of the vote (compared with 2% last quarter).

In terms of preference for premier, Higgs remains most preferred this quarter, with four-in-ten residents voicing preference for Higgs as premier (39%, compared with 38% in August 2020). Melanson, who stepped in as interim Liberal leader after the election, is preferred as premier by 17% (consistent with 20% in August 2020 for Vickers), while Coon holds steady at 16% of voter preference (consistent with 14% in August 2020). Austin is preferred by 6% (compared with 3% in August 2020), and a similar percentage would prefer Thomason as premier (4%, compared with 5% in August 2020).