2019 Polls

Cut the BS  JKR

bekayne wrote:

New Fourum Research:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/947bc454-04dc-4398-a96e-b49657d834acH...

Liberals have a 9% among women, Conservatives have a 28% lead among men. Doug Ford is the average Canadian male.

Pondering wrote:

Agreed. Predictions are always "short of". That is this election was looking like a cakewalk for Trudeau unless something big happened. At first it did not look like this would be big enough and you are right it could still blow over.

Even if it doesn't completely you are also right that this isn't just an up/down vote for Trudeau or the Liberals. Elections are about best of the bunch or least worse of the bunch. Someone unpopular can still win as long as they are less unpopular than the other choices.  Strategic voting also comes into play. I am heartened to see a bit of a lift for the NDP but I don't think Ipso Reid is one of the more accurate pollsters. Don't they usually favor the Conservatives?

Ipsos has a decent reputation. I have heard arguments that they are biased -- this is a methodolgy issue. In the past this has tended to work against the NDP. I am not sure if this has been true for a while. They seemed to have fixed that.

In the last election, two days before the vote, Ipsos poll had the Conservatives dead on, the NDP 2% above the final result and the Liberals 2 below. I think that given the trend it is possible that they were correct on that day but a further 2% shifted from the NDP to the Liberals. I have no evidence that the poll was not accurate for the day. If you look at the previous two Ipsos polls you can see they were tracking a decline in NDP fortunes in favour of the Liberals.

At one time I worked for Ipsos. I can say that they were very diligent in terms of maintaining quotas in the field even if certain demographics were hard. I know many pollsters blow open all quotas at the end in order to finish a survey when they hit hard to find demographics. Ipsos is a more expensive pollster who takes pride in not doing that. They also considered their political polling to be their flagship advertising and always wanted to make sure that these numbers were accurate as could be. Sure they have made mistakes but I do think they are reputable. I have no reason to be loyal to them at this point.

I have raised isues with polling here in the past. I have said that polling reflects enthusiasm rather than preferences until you are late in an eleciton period. The reason is that most poeple refuse to be polled (refusals including refusal to answer is in the high 90s in terms of percent). People are overpolled. As a result a party whose supporters are more excited and want to be polled will poll higher than one who is less enthusiastic. By election time more people ahve a decision and are willing to share it. Now given the Liberal scandal you may have a number of motivations in defence of the Liberals or in hopes of making gains on them so this may be less of a factor.

There is still the issue with cell phones vs land lines. I think this is becoming reduced now as more plans allow free incoming calls or unlimited calling than in the past andso the difference between a land line and a cell line is less pronounced than it was when the majority paid by the minute. Pollsters with some effort can reach all demographics.

The major issue in polling is saturation -- people who simply do not want to answer any more and this is not based on what kind of phone they have.

Deleted - I duplicated something someone else had already said.

NDP now within 15% of the Liberals

Cons 36%

Libs 33%

NDP 18%

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/03/12/conservatives-36-liberals-3...

JKR wrote:

Hasn’t the NDP mostly been hovering around 18% in the polls for over half a century? These polling numbers could be from the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, and 2000’s.

I agree that's true, and that's why I write off all the "sky is falling" crap about the ndp being in freefall.

wage zombie wrote:

JKR wrote:

Hasn’t the NDP mostly been hovering around 18% in the polls for over half a century? These polling numbers could be from the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, and 2000’s.

I agree that's true, and that's why I write off all the "sky is falling" crap about the ndp being in freefall.

Actually, I would caution anyone who claims that this is where the NDP has always been:

1) the bad -- the NDP support used to flatline in Quebec and Eastern Canada and concentrate from Ontario westwards. This made it more efficient than it may be today. The low level of support may be closer to that experienced byt Kim Campbell than the concentrated support the NDP had that could net them 30 plus seats.

2) the good - same issue the widespread nature of the NDP support means that  only a lisght improvement from this dangerous level of support could bring the party from being at risk of loss of party status to netting a large number of seats second only to the high of 2011.

The current situation both represents a significant risk for the party of huge losses and an opportunity of huge gains. The present number of seats is with a vote total similar to what they ahve now -- the question is whether this distribution is the same, worse, or better.

New Leger federal poll for Quebec. https://www.journaldemontreal.com/sondage-leger--limpact-de-laffaire-snc...

Liberals: 35% (-4)

Conservatives: 26% (+5)

Bloc: 17% (-4)

Greens: 9% (+4)

NDP: 7% (-1)

PPC: 4% (-2)

Singh's numbers are even worse. Granted this poll was taken before Boulerice became deputy leader, but this is terrible news for the NDP. The Greens could easily become the alternative for those on the left if this keeps up.

Who is Canada's most ethical leader?

Quote:

Canadians most frequently score Green Party Leader Elizabeth May as the most ethical among her federal counterparts, according to a Nanos Research survey based on data that came out of the field Tuesday.

The results of the study, which was commissioned by CTV News, showed 23.2 per cent of survey respondents picked May as the most ethical federal party leader.

Andrew Scheer came second, with 21.4 per cent of survey respondents selecting the Conservative leader, while Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau came third with 16.9 per cent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh had 6.1 per cent and People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier had 3.0 per cent of the vote.

Think about that Singh badly trails not only a Prime Minstert who has recently been caught breaking rules for certain companies, but also the leader of a party that we just recently threw out of office for scandals and blatant bigotry and prejudice.

Not a good sign. At all.

wage zombie wrote:

Most people do not know Jagmeet Singh yet.  While it's not a good thing that the number is low, I don't think we'll know whether it's relevant until at least midway through the summer.

I understand why May is viewed highly in that poll. That's not what concerns me. Why is Singh viewed far less fabourably than Scheer, even though Scheer hasn't been in the job as long? Why is he so far behind Trudeau?

This excuse that "people don't know Singh?" He's had over a year to address that problem. The eletion will be held in a little over 6 months. That's not nearly enough time for him to make his mark.

Oh I suspect you’re absolutely right Sean in Ottawa. Not that I’m a fan of polls anyways. These pollster questions are probably cherrypicked to intentionally show the NDP with low numbers to discourage support. 

There always seems to be new questions coming out on a monthly basis 

wage zombie wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I understand why May is viewed highly in that poll. That's not what concerns me. Why is Singh viewed far less fabourably than Scheer, even though Scheer hasn't been in the job as long? Why is he so far behind Trudeau?

Scheer is leader of the CPC.  What's their floor?  He's the default vote for any Conservatives.

Trudeau is PM, regardless of the current scandal.

Quote:

This excuse that "people don't know Singh?" He's had over a year to address that problem. The eletion will be held in a little over 6 months. That's not nearly enough time for him to make his mark.

He hasn't had a seat and has been ignored by the media.  Remember when Tom was leader of the opposition and Trudeau got more coverage with 34 seats?  Without Jagmeet having a seat that's been turned up to 11.  Maybe it was a mistake to not seek a seat earlier (especially given all the MPs who aren't running again).  But his inability to make a mark in 2018 was under very different conditions than a general election.

Racism will be less of a factor once Jagmeet has more coverage and attention.  I don't think the racism will go away entirely, but I think the more exposure people have to Jagmeet, the less racism they will feel (for those who would consider voting for a Sikh leader at least).

I think Singh has had quite a bit of negative press. I think that people do not like much of what they have heard and this is a problem as well as the fact that the body of knowledge is low. I don't think we can just blame the idea that he is an unknown.

wage zombie wrote:

When you say people do not like much of what they have heard, do you mean what they have heard from him or about him?

I voted in the NDP leadership race, and I quickly grew to dislike him during that contest. Everything else since has validated that. If someone like me who follows NDP politics closely and is willing to cut them a great deal of slack for failing to live up to their ideals can't stand the leader, how is he supposed to appeal to the genera population.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

wage zombie wrote:

When you say people do not like much of what they have heard, do you mean what they have heard from him or about him?

I voted in the NDP leadership race, and I quickly grew to dislike him during that contest. Everything else since has validated that. If someone like me who follows NDP politics closely and is willing to cut them a great deal of slack for failing to live up to their ideals can't stand the leader, how is he supposed to appeal to the genera population.

And yet in all this time I haven't learned what it is about him you don't like. 

Pondering wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

wage zombie wrote:

When you say people do not like much of what they have heard, do you mean what they have heard from him or about him?

I voted in the NDP leadership race, and I quickly grew to dislike him during that contest. Everything else since has validated that. If someone like me who follows NDP politics closely and is willing to cut them a great deal of slack for failing to live up to their ideals can't stand the leader, how is he supposed to appeal to the genera population.

And yet in all this time I haven't learned what it is about him you don't like. 

I think a great deal of the attention has been superficial and some that he is invovled with. Some of the humanizing stories need to be balanced with substance. He has an opportunity now and he will have to provide real thoughtful substance without mistakes. We shall see. There is a chance for him to make this much better if he can rise to being above the superficial.

Sweet!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

Thanks josh, that's unfortunate, but all the more reason to elect a lot of NDPers so they can govern with the Liberals in a minority or coalition government, similiar to the very successful , at least for the citizens, NDP with the support of the Greens, BC government.

Cons - 36%

Libs - 33%

NDP - 20%

Looks like the NDP might be turning the corner.

I wonder how much of Singh's election as MP for Bunaby South and his entry to the House of Commons accounted for the NDP's rise in support.

Now that’s a scary thought!

Canadians like Liberal budget but prefer Conservatives to govern

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/03/24/canadians-like-liberal-budget-but-prefer-conservatives-to-govern-polls-say.html

Poll says Justin Trudeau losing ground where he needs to be gaining: British Columbia

VANCOUVER—Though British Columbia should be fertile ground for the Liberals to grow support ahead of October’s general election, the party’s biggest asset in 2015 is now its biggest liability: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

That’s according to Martyn Brown, a former BC Liberal — a provincial party that has no ties to the federal one and is often aligned with small “c” conservative values — who was chief of staff for the province’s premier during the 2000s.

Animosity toward Canada’s current prime minister is pervasive across British Columbia, though strongest outside of the Metro Vancouver region, says the president of Research Co.  (DAVID LIPNOWSKI / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

“B.C. is critical to the Liberals’ fortunes, as their strength in Quebec seems to be waning and in Atlantic Canada they’re grossly under attack. They have to look for where they can gain seats,” Brown said in an interview.

“As long as Trudeau is their leader, the party is bound to suffer big time.”

Brown’s comments follow a new Research Co. poll released on Tuesday that found a majority of British Columbians believe a new party leader would be better. A third of B.C. residents who voted for the Liberals in 2015 also believe a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa than Trudeau.

And that animosity toward Canada’s current prime minister is pervasive across the province, though strongest outside of the Metro Vancouver region, said Mario Canseco, president of Research Co.

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Meanwhile, half of British Columbians think a different party is needed to lead in Ottawa. Notably, a majority of all age groups polled — from millennials to boomers and beyond — felt that way, as well as a quarter of 2015 Liberal voters.

“That’s the danger the Liberals are facing,” Canseco said. “This is more worrisome in urban areas where you can see people gravitate more to the NDP, which places a lot of seats in jeopardy.”

Prior to 2015, the Liberal party held two seats in British Columbia. But after “Trudeaumania” took the country, the Liberals went from third place in the House of Commons to holding a majority government. Now, they hold 17 seats in B.C.

Canseco questioned whether they could sustain that momentum.

And while there wasn’t much of a gender gap in 2015, men are now more likely to be critical and dissatisfied with the Liberals.

Canseco is closely following the millennial reaction to Trudeau, as the previous election saw a significant spike in the youth vote. For Canseco, the big question ahead of the fall election will be exactly where those votes go.

“It’s no longer the idea of Trudeau as a great unifier, and if they find a shinier object out there, will they support it?” he said. “If you’re disenchanted because of environmental decisions, or maybe electoral reform, or the SNC-Lavalin affair, do you stay home or vote Green or NDP?”

Poll results were based on an online study from March 8 to 10 among 800 adults in B.C., with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Left-leaning progressives offended by the SNC-Lavalin affair may be tempted to vote for the NDP or Greens, Brown said, while centre-right leaning and “swing Liberals” will now be swayed to vote Conservative.

Disenchantment with Trudeau — particularly in B.C. — has risen because he has “failed” on so many files, according to Brown, such as proportional representation, balancing the budget, reconciliation and the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

“(All that has) dramatically reduced his party’s fortunes in Greater Vancouver on progressive, environmentally conscious voters,” he said. “On so many files, he’s proven himself to be the opposite of what he purports to be.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2019/03/26/poll-says-justin-trudeau-losing-ground-where-he-needs-to-be-gaining-british-columbia.html

Wow!

NDP now within 9% of the Liberals overall and tied with the Liberals in seat rich Ontario in latest poll 

https://globalnews.ca/news/5103763/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-budget/

Ipsos comparing Mar 25 and Feb 18 Polls

NDP Up 4%

Cons Up 4%

Libs Down 4%

So  the NDP has gained 8% on the Liberals in just over a month

Incroyable!

Leadership Favourable Ratings

Sheer 44%

Singh 39%

Trudeau 36%

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-mar2019/