Nanaimo-Ladysmith By-Election For May 6th

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

MM, would you mind editing your headline to include the date of the by-election, May 6th?  It would be a useful bit of info given that the by-election has just now been called.  Thanks.

Done!

Thanks.  

Ken Burch wrote:

after Mulcair removed him as the NDP candidate there due to his active solidarity with the people of Palestine-and especially due to his expression of said solidarity by participating in the aid flotilla from Turkey in which IDF troops boarded the Mavi Marmara and killed nine people.

More precisely he was kept from seeking the nomination. It was his father, former NDP MP Jim Manley, who was on the flotilla and Paul was excluded simply because he protested the treatment of his father by the Israeli authorities.

I'm surprised to see this by-election call, I thought the Liberals would just call it for the same date as the general election. A Conservative pickup would be bad news for both the NDP and Liberals. On the other hand a Green pickup would be bad news for just the NDP. An NDP hold would be status quo.

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The Liberal candidate, Michelle Corfield, is a well-known Indigenous activist. She is more likely to win a by-election than the alternative, a naitonal election about Trudeau or not. So a by-election call makes sense. 

A potential NDP candidate, Chief Bob Chamberlain, is VP of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs and carries a lot of weight. He's up against Sheila Malcolmsen's constituency assistant for the NDP nomination. If he runs, the Green candidate can only hurt the chances of him becoming MP, and I hope Manly would think about standing aside. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-call...

I think if you have something to say and can get 100 signatures you should go for it. FPTP is already too distructive to the discussion of the full range of ideas.

brookmere wrote:

 

I'm surprised to see this by-election call, I thought the Liberals would just call it for the same date as the general election. A Conservative pickup would be bad news for both the NDP and Liberals. On the other hand a Green pickup would be bad news for just the NDP. An NDP hold would be status quo.

A Green victory might not hurt only the NDP. It could bleed support from the Liberals for those who currently support the Liberals on their so-called 'environmental' agenda that somehow includes buying pipelines and spending billions subsidizing the world's wealthiest industry in other ways. Currently some of these voters do not see the Greens as viable where they live, especially outside BC, where the Greens are already relatively strong. A victory in this riding could cause people to take a second look at the Greens and give them some more media coverage as the election approaches.

In addition, the Greens have led in 5 of the last 7 PEI provincial polls. Furthermore, the lead is growing with the Greens, at 38%, 11 points ahead of the third place 27% Liberals, who fallen two points behind the Cons. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election). While most people pay little attention to tiny PEI, its election is on or before October 7th. Since the Liberals  are so far behind they are unlikely to call a quick election, so their election is likely going to be shortly ahead of the federal October 21st election, meaning the Greens are highly likely to get lots of coverage in the national press just before or during the federal election campaign. 

A surge in the vote for the federal Greens may increase their seat count but is likely to split the Liberal/NDP/Green vote three ways, leading to more seats being lost by these three parties than gained by the Greens, because the latter would have to make up so much ground in the vast majority of ridings. This could cost the Liberals many more seats than the NDP in four way races or five way races in Quebec (where the Greens got 13% in the February byelection there)  for the simple reason that the Liberals have many more seats to lose. In other words, Conservative victories in ridings the Liberals would have otherwise held, without such a surge in the Green vote, has the potential to cost the Liberals a majority government, and possibly even a minority government if the Liberal/NDP/Green vote split enables the Cons to capture many seats they would not otherwise take. 

Excellent candidate and  I forecast he will win the by-election as well

https://globalnews.ca/news/5114178/ndp-candidate-nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection/

Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection a test of political forces

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2019/03/nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection-test-political-forces#at_pco=smlrebv-1.0&at_si=5ca12052629e83a7&at_ab=per-2&at_pos=1&at_tot=5

Disagree

Were the Greens not polling 1st recently?

The Liberals were hoping the Greens would win but just not gonna happen as the NDP will win handily

Its official. Unlike Burnaby this riding is very white but it has a significant aboriginal population at 10%.

First Nations Chief Robert Chamberlin was selected as the NDP’s candidate for the 2019 byelection for Nanaimo – Ladysmith Saturday.

https://www.cheknews.ca/first-nations-chief-robert-chamberlin-selected-a...

NorthReport wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/r_garrison/status/1114653774037929984

Thread drift, but what is the ICPG mentioned in the reply?

Green.

Here is a good local news article on the by-election.

He said the 500,000 units would be built over 10 years. Asked how it would fit into a federal budget, Singh pointed to the Liberals’ corporate tax breaks and pipeline purchase.

“They’re making certain choices that are not in line with our values. So we would make different choices, better choices,” Singh said. “We’d put people first and make sure we prioritize building these affordable homes that people need.”

He said the federal government can be a “meaningful partner” with the province of B.C., for example, which he said is ready to tackle the housing crisis.

“We’d look at a wide variety of partnerships, so this could be co-operative housing, non-market housing, working with non-profit organizations, working with cities that have available land but just need some funding, working with provinces that are willing to put up some money,” Singh said.

Asked if there are certain types of housing he’s hearing that people need, Chamberlin quipped, “yeah, affordable housing.” He said the crisis is impacting people looking to buy and rent and mentioned that it’s hard on young people and putting them in a challenging position to set out in their lives.

“If we can be the governing party for this country, we can ensure that we make the proper steps, the proper investments for affordable housing which will benefit the people obviously that are moving in, but it will benefit the market, as well, by freeing up other rental suites and so forth, so everybody can have a decent place to live, a decent place to call home and a decent place to have a future built upon,” Chamberlin said.

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/ndp-say-affordable-housing-fundamen...

NorthReport wrote:

Jeesh!

Anti-immigration party is on the ballot in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Opposing candidate says National Citizens Alliance’s participation ‘highly problematic’

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/anti-immigration-party-is-on-the-ballot-in-nanaimo-ladysmith/

And the candidate's a flat earther as well!

NCA leader Garvey said that “ethnic enclaves are multiplying and expanding” in Canada, which he said is creating division.

“We’re not against immigrants but we don’t support the replacement of our traditional people,” he said, specifying that by ‘traditional people’ he means First Nations, Métis, Inuit and European-Canadians. “This is unprecedented in world history that a government would actually replace its own people but that’s what’s going on if you look at the demographic data. A lot of Canadians are waking up to this. They’re very disturbed by it.”

These jokers ran in York-Simcoe and got 0.13%, well behind John Turmel.

In the following article the seven candidates describe their priorities. 

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection-candid...

NorthReport wrote:

NDP leading but close 3 way race

Can the Green Party take the Nanaimo—Ladysmith By-Election?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/can-the-green-party-take-the-nanaimo-ladysmith-by-election/

Is that a poll? What the hell is this?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/project/polly/

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

NDP leading but close 3 way race

Can the Green Party take the Nanaimo—Ladysmith By-Election?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/can-the-green-party-take-the-nanaimo-ladysmith-by-election/

Is that a poll? What the hell is this?

https://www.advancedsymbolics.com/project/polly/

According to the article it is not a poll it is a Polly.

Polly—our patented AI— has been monitoring voter intent

kropotkin1951 wrote:

According to the article it is not a poll it is a Polly.

Polly—our patented AI— has been monitoring voter intent

Is a Polly anything like a HAL? Will it eventually try to kill us?

LOL

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

The idea was that, if they could throw this by-election to the Cons, they could use that to establish the narrative that the only possible choices were the Cons or themselves, and then use that to once more start verbally bludgeoning everyone to their left with the "strategic voting" canard.

would never work in Nanaimo. nothing strategic plot like happening.

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

So...could this lead to Liberal voters tactically voting Con just to prevent the NDP from holding the seat or the Greens from taking it?

Why?

The Liberals remain more worried about the Conservatives than either the Greens or NDP when it comes to losing power in the fall. I would guess more Liberals would be more likely to move to the NDP or Greens although they may split between them.

The idea was that, if they could throw this by-election to the Cons, they could use that to establish the narrative that the only possible choices were the Cons or themselves, and then use that to once more start verbally bludgeoning everyone to their left with the "strategic voting" canard.

This is where strategic voting is a crock. Som one Liberal strategically votes for the Conservative along the lines you suggest, another votes for the Greens as they think that is the most likely progressive voice, another thinks it is the NDP and votes accordingly, another votes Liberal assumign that the national numbers are also local. All could have stayed home.

I think strategic voting is often damaging to parties without the strength to counter it but it is usually ineffective becuase each person's information and logic is personal, as are their priorities. The same calculations above could be based on blocking another party -- one Liberal might want to block a Conservative and another a New Democrat and antoher the Green party. So in the end, how does that strategy work out?

This is why I say the best strategy is to vote for the candidate that you want to win. Whether they win or not, at least you were rowing in the direction you wanted instead of circles where you might even end up voting against your preference under the assumption that it had a lower chance and actually defeat it becuase it was doing better than you thought.

Chief Bob Chamberlin: Protecting wild salmon takes more than cherry picking and photo ops

Faced with evidence that PRV may be wild Pacific salmon’s smallpox, the minister sits on his hands

https://www.straight.com/news/1228061/chief-bob-chamberlin-protecting-wild-salmon-takes-more-cherry-picking-and-photo-ops