2019 Polls

NorthReport wrote:

Can anyone find out what the leadership polling actually is for the Ipsos poll released today saying Trudeau’s support is less than Trump’s support?

It is a false comparison so it does not matter.  When comparing leader and party polls between a two party systme and a 4-6 party system the most popular choice in system with more parties will still normally be behind the second place of the two party system.

Let me make a comparison that some will hate: this is the same with Brexit. When Brexit was considered in the referendum there was just two options and a majority was possible. Since then Brexit has become broken down into its different options and now there seems to be no majority that is easily found. You can use some system for combining options through ranked ballots but without doing this you cannot compare.

If Canada used ranked leadership ballots for poll questions, I am sure we would have a leader do much better than Trump, however, just with party preference  -- even expressed for leaders individually the knowledge of other options, means people will support the one they prefer and thumbs down to the rest. Multiple extra options affect favourability ratings slightly less directly than other metrics but the effect is still there.

If we had just Scheer and Trudeau as leaders -- or even just two parties without knowing the leader of the second, Trudeau would do better than knowing there is a BQ, Green and NDP nominee to like, compare against and contrast with.

Gee, I wonder why Liberals never make these kind of comments when the polls are favourable to the Liberals, eh.

What nonsense!

bekayne wrote:

Differences between the pollsters (Ipsos, then Reid in brackets):

Women: Con  40 (29) / Lib  28 (31)

Ontario: Con  40 (37) / Lib  28 (33) / NDP  28 (16)

Quebec: Lib  38 (27) / Con  25 (25) / BQ  23 (20) / NDP  12 (18)  

 

 

Huge differences in where NDP support is coming from. This would create dramatic differences in seat totals.

I think there is another factor here. There are three changes since Layton for the NDP:

1) The party is more spead out meaning that it likely can take more votes to elect MPs and there is a greater risk of a Kim Campbell result (good pop vote and next to no seats). This is not recognized much given the result of 2015 but in that election the NDP had a lot more incumbants and still some strength concentrations particularly in Quebec.

2) Because of the support from the Layton period I think there is far more potential for expansion of the NDP. The NDP is now an unpopular mainstream contender. Previously it was closer to fringe with little room for growth even when popular it was not seen realistically as an option. Layton cracked that open in the perceptions of people. Even without gaining much outside Quebec, the party was seen as a contender. This has not changed. I think with little real coming from the NDP, the NDP just floated up to 21% in a poll when that was an extremely rare thing previously and it would take more from the NDP to bring it there. The party was considered and had a great deal of support in 2011; was considered and rejected in 2015 and in the polls since; it has the capacity now to be very quickly considered and accepted. With all the losses and low polls, the NDP supporters may fail to recognize that the party, even without that support now, retains the capacity for it. It may lose badly in the fall, particularly in Quebec, but 2011 did not go away and it retains the position of consideration that will benefit the future. This was what the party always fought for and could not get. Had Broadbent, where he was in his last campaign as leader, had the benefit of this history, he might  have become PM in 1988. The NDP, even if it is not up now, is on a much more level field when it comes to competition.

3) The NDP is flat broke. This could change slightly but probably not much. However, due to the changes in communications, campaigns are fought more on social media which is a cheaper format than standard media. A low budget campaign has more capacity in this context, if it can make stories and catch the imagination, than previously.

wage zombie wrote:

While we shouldn't take these polls too seriously, and there's lots of time for things to change even if they are accurate, at least they show that all the hand-wringing over Singh as leader was misplaced.

I've read NDPers (mostly, but not exclusively Angus supporters) say that the NDP would lose party status, and that Singh is an incompetent moron, etc.

I agree that this is more about Trudeau going down than anything else, but I'd also say that was required for the NDP to make gains (under any leader).

So I don't put too much weight in these polls, but I'm happy that they are showing the Singh hate to be very misplaced.  I have argued for a while that while things haven't looked good for Singh, it was more about people being unfamiliar with him than anything else.

Mulcair was chosen in part due to his perceived ability to hold the Quebec seats.  That ended up not being the case.  Now it seems like the Jagmeet Singh 905/BC gambit might be a pretty good idea after all.

I think all the upset from white people who think that Canadians would not vote for a person of colour includes some misperceptions:

1) These white people think they represent all white people and many really do not see things they way they do.

2) The people most likely to be turned off by Singh over the issue of race were probably not potential NDP voters in any large numbers

3) The reality of Canada is that it is less white than many white people think it is

Then there are the people who objected to Singh on the basis of him not being left enough.

1) these people may percieve more of this in the leadership than what is the case. The NDP ran from the right in the last campaign despite a progressive platform. I doubt the leader was the sole cause and I suspect Mulcair became a scapegoat. If so then the party may be prepared to run a more left campaign and the leader will go with it.

2) Singh may be more left than some were expecting given his many vapid statements. He may actually deliver to the left more than any recent leaders.

Then there are the people who objected to Singh based on competence

1) some of the things that went wrong may have been less in control for him

2) He may be getting better (perhaps desperate) advice

3) He may have learned from some missteps

I was never worried about the first (I suspect most if not all people here were not worried) despite accusations. The second two raised concerns for me. I am open to being proven wrong on these.

There is no question that the Liberals have gifted the NDP an opportunity. It is up to the NDP to take advantage or not....

NorthReport wrote:

It seems like all the Liberal-supporting pollsters have stopped releasing their polling results these days.

Who knew!

Evidence? I doubt it. The more sensational the more profit.

If anythying there could be a pause to let things gel to get a read in a few days.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I was never worried about the first (I suspect most if not all people here were not worried) despite accusations. The second two raised concerns for me. I am open to being proven wrong on these.

I think the turban and race are probably more of a negative than a postive but all politicans have both positives and negatives.  Trudeau's were a very thin CV and poor speaking skills. He still became PM. Strengths were the Big Red Machine behind him and Harper getting long in the tooth, neither of which he was responsible for. They built his image as a young forward thinking many ready to Make Canada Great Again according to our national myths (nice peacekeepers, welcomers of the downtrodden, generous to children and families. 

From a personality perspective so far I like what Singh projects very much: his unoffended willingness to educate people on Sikh acceptance of LGBTQ etc.  He has no accent and no weird beliefs. His wife is a successful career woman. He even unwound his turban and showed his hair on Rick Mercer I think it was. That surprised me. Mercer joked that he is like a Harlequin hero but he is right. Singh is a good-looking man. He won't be elected or not elected on that basis but he is more likely to get a fair hearing due to it. Getting people's attention is half the battle. 

Racists will never vote for him but people who just assume that Sikhism is something like Islam in the sense of being an old testament religion will see that it isn't so. They will see that Singh is a pretty typical man of his age starting a family and has the same concerns as they do. That is key. It frames how people will receive his proposals. 

Trudeau's budget is popular in large part because of his pharmacare plan. That is something Singh will attack as well short of a genuine pharmacare plan. 

Well that is the Liberal pollster I was looking at.

NorthReport wrote:

Well that is the Liberal pollster I was looking at.

Which one?

Abacus

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Well that is the Liberal pollster I was looking at.

Which one?

https://canview.com/2019/03/cric-statement-response-news-mria-re-launched/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

New Mainstreet poll just out (The poll surveyed 8501 Canadians between March 19th and 25th 2019)

Conservatives - 37%

Liberals - 35%

NDP - 12%

GREEN - 8%

Trudeau’s Liberals are still ahead in key regions of the country

https://www.scribd.com/document/403740692/Mainstreet-Canada-31march2019

Mighty Middle wrote:

New Mainstreet poll just out (The poll surveyed 8501 Canadians between March 19th and 25th 2019)

Conservatives - 37%

Liberals - 35%

NDP - 12%

GREEN - 8%

Trudeau’s Liberals are still ahead in key regions of the country

https://www.scribd.com/document/403740692/Mainstreet-Canada-31march2019

Mainstreet was also the pollster who had the Conservatives well in the lead headed to a majority in the middle of the summer of 2015. nobody else said so. When I looked at their demos they were totally wacky - not near representative with 3/4 over age 60. Take any mainstreet poll with a good bottle of drain opener. It will be worth about the price of drain opener.

You want to know why the Conservatives and NDP are gaining on the Liberals?

Trudeau has been in the news lately because of SNC Lavalin. What have Jagmeet Singh and Andrew Scheer been in the news for lately?

The leaders of the 3 main parties have all shown themselves to be incompetent and unfit to lead a popsicle stand, let alone a political party. The SNC thing may have done some permanent damage, but I believe that when the news cycle shifts away from that and Scheer comes under scrutiny, that popular support will swing more in the direction of the Liberals. Same thing with Singh. When he opens his mouth, progressives will run from the NDP to the Liberals because, at least the Liberals as the bigger party are best positioned to stop the Conservatives. Then Trudeau will gaffe again, the media will run with that gaffe, and the opposition parties will gain support at the expense of the Liberals. Such is the way the cycle will play out at least until the votes are counted.

I disagree.

Scheer from Day 1 of the SNC scandal has been calling for Trudeau to resign. So now 2 months later Scheer has used up all his ammunition and his calling for Trudeau to resign today is boring old news with nothing new to offer.

Singh on the other hand from the beginning dealing with the SNC scandal used a measured response calling for a public inquiry which more and more Canadians want with each passing day.  As well Singh has begun to slowly release the NDP campaign platform including pharmacare, and taxing these offshore tax-havens to help pay for the NDP programs. Liberals are definitely paying attention to Singh because after 3 long years Liberals are finally moving on charging some of these wealthy Canadians who the CRA says are hiding $240 billion abroad.  Singh is kicking some Liberal butt and the Liberals know it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cra-tax-gap-foreign-holdings-1.4726983

Aristotleded24 wrote:

You want to know why the Conservatives and NDP are gaining on the Liberals?

Trudeau has been in the news lately because of SNC Lavalin. What have Jagmeet Singh and Andrew Scheer been in the news for lately?

The leaders of the 3 main parties have all shown themselves to be incompetent and unfit to lead a popsicle stand, let alone a political party. The SNC thing may have done some permanent damage, but I believe that when the news cycle shifts away from that and Scheer comes under scrutiny, that popular support will swing more in the direction of the Liberals. Same thing with Singh. When he opens his mouth, progressives will run from the NDP to the Liberals because, at least the Liberals as the bigger party are best positioned to stop the Conservatives. Then Trudeau will gaffe again, the media will run with that gaffe, and the opposition parties will gain support at the expense of the Liberals. Such is the way the cycle will play out at least until the votes are counted.

Trudeau was losing public confidence long before the SNC affair.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-was-losing-publics-confidence-long-before-snc-affair/

Preferred PM

Trudeau - 31.1%

Scheer - 26.7%

Singh - 7.8%

May - 7.6%

Bernier - 2.7%

Blanchet - 1.1%

Unsure - 23.0%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Package-2019-03...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-atlantic-polls-1.5081722?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

‘I will never vote Liberal again’

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2019/04/03/i-will-never-vote-again-for-the-liberals-bc-voters-reconsider-their-ballots-after-jody-wilson-raybould-expulsion.html

.

‘Liberal support just bleeding all over the place’

The reason I have my doubts is just looking at Nanos' (who the Liberal supporters love) changes over the past almost 4 months shows:

Party / Mar 29 / Dec 7 / Change

Libs / 34.6% / 34.1% / Up 0.5% - How could that be?

Cons / 35.1% / 34.8% / Up 0.3% - Insignificant, and basically no change

NDP / 16.6% / 15.8% / Up 0.8% - Is less than 1%

Grns / 8.1% / 8.2% / Down 0.1%

2016 Election Results

PCs 40 seats

NDP 14 seats

Libs 3 seats

Pop Vote Polling Vs Actual 2016

Party  / Mar 24 2019 / 2016 Election / Difference

PCs / 42% / 53.1% / Down 11.1%

NDP / 30% / 25.78% / Up 4.22%

Libs /  18% / 7.52% / Up 10.48%

Grns /  7% / 5.07% / Up 1.93% but Greens always show more support in the polls than they get in the election

Actually this Probe Research poll is great news!

It's fine if the Liberals lose support to the NDP.

What's not good is if the Liberals lose support to the Cons.

Federal Liberal support eroding in Winnipeg, NDP making gains, poll suggests

Liberal support slides to 40 per cent in city

The eroding support for Justin Trudeau's government in Winnipeg appears to be benefiting the federal NDP, a new poll suggests.

"The NDP are the real beneficiaries of our sort of collective disdain, or growing disdain, with the Liberals," said Mary Agnes Welch, a partner with Probe Research. 

Conservative support flat

The Tories slipped three percentage points to 30 per cent in Winnipeg, the poll suggests, which keeps the party in the same range its held among Winnipeggers since the last election. 

Provincewide, the Conservatives still poll at 42 per cent support. The Liberals dipped to 31 per cent (down three per cent from December), while the NDP were at 17 per cent (up one per cent) and the Greens rose to seven per cent (up two per cent) among people surveyed.

Welch said voter unhappiness with the SNC-Lavalin scandal only tells part of the story about the Liberals' falling fortunes.

The Liberal Party lost three per cent of its support in the Manitoba capital since December to sit at 40 per cent, a Probe Research survey suggests — a far cry from the 53 per cent support the party got in the 2015 election.

The NDP now has the backing of 21 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Winnipeg, the poll suggests, an increase of four per cent from December and a seven-point jump since the last federal election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/liberal-support-eroding-federal-winnipeg-snc-lavalin-1.5084329