2019 Polls

NorthReport wrote:

2016 Election Results

PCs 40 seats

NDP 14 seats

Libs 3 seats

Pop Vote Polling Vs Actual 2016

Party  / Mar 24 2019 / 2016 Election / Difference

PCs / 42% / 53.1% / Down 11.1%

NDP / 30% / 25.78% / Up 4.22%

Libs /  18% / 7.52% / Up 10.48%

Grns /  7% / 5.07% / Up 1.93% but Greens always show more support in the polls than they get in the election

Actually this Probe Research poll is great news!

It's fine if the Liberals lose support to the NDP.

What's not good is if the Liberals lose support to the Cons.

Federal Liberal support eroding in Winnipeg, NDP making gains, poll suggests

Liberal support slides to 40 per cent in city

The eroding support for Justin Trudeau's government in Winnipeg appears to be benefiting the federal NDP, a new poll suggests.

"The NDP are the real beneficiaries of our sort of collective disdain, or growing disdain, with the Liberals," said Mary Agnes Welch, a partner with Probe Research. 

Conservative support flat

The Tories slipped three percentage points to 30 per cent in Winnipeg, the poll suggests, which keeps the party in the same range its held among Winnipeggers since the last election. 

Provincewide, the Conservatives still poll at 42 per cent support. The Liberals dipped to 31 per cent (down three per cent from December), while the NDP were at 17 per cent (up one per cent) and the Greens rose to seven per cent (up two per cent) among people surveyed.

Welch said voter unhappiness with the SNC-Lavalin scandal only tells part of the story about the Liberals' falling fortunes.

The Liberal Party lost three per cent of its support in the Manitoba capital since December to sit at 40 per cent, a Probe Research survey suggests — a far cry from the 53 per cent support the party got in the 2015 election.

The NDP now has the backing of 21 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Winnipeg, the poll suggests, an increase of four per cent from December and a seven-point jump since the last federal election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/liberal-support-eroding-federal-winnipeg-snc-lavalin-1.5084329

Holy crap NR. Can you spend more time putting the necessary information in these?

Look how far down you have to read to start guessing this is a provincial poll from Manitoba that your post starts with....

CTV are running a message across their news screen: 

‘Andrew Scheer’s Support Wavers’ and I think it was connected to Nanos 

At the same time they interviewed Pauline Beange a Poly Sci Prof at U of T who said parties get elected sometimes even though the party is more popular than their leader

So the morale of the story is that it is not good enough to just damage Scheer’s political credibility we have to politically attack the Conservative party and its ideology as well

I don't disagree entirely entirely but If Canada were to have an election today the ballot box question would be Justin's behaviour.

Election are won basically by political parties and/or their leaders. Discrediting the political idealogy of both is required, depending on the circumstances, that is if your goal is to win the election. 

Liberals won in 2015  on Trudeau's personality. If the Conservatives win in 2019, it will be either on Trudeau's behaviour or Conservative idealogy more than Sheer's personality.

THE BEST MARKETING STRATEGY FOR WINNING AN ELECTION

What works for one party doesn't necessarily work for another. Professor Doug Chung discusses his research on presidential elections, and which marketing paths lead to victory.

https://www.hbs.edu/news/articles/Pages/chung-election-marketing.aspx

Pollster Nik Nanos

https://mobile.twitter.com/ctvqp/status/1114919710087241728

Bear in mind this polling is over a 4 week period.

Nanos - Apr 5 19

Con - 35%

Lib - 33%

ND - 17%

Grn - 10%

BQ - 4%

People - 1%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-05-Political-Package.pdf

so the nanos poll shows the majority of Canadians want domethingboyher than Conservatives or Liberals lolololol

now we can see why neither will put PR in.

Trudeau’s personal brand continues to tarnish, new poll suggests

https://globalnews.ca/news/5146402/trudeau-nanos-poll/

kropotkin1951 wrote:

quizzical wrote:

so the nanos poll shows the majority of Canadians want domethingboyher than Conservatives or Liberals lolololol

now we can see why neither will put PR in.

The Liberals offered to have an Alternative Vote system that would have them cruising to an easy win given that they are most voters second choice.

Or people would feel free to not vote strategically because if their first choice didn't win their second might. 

Conservative hatred of Liberals is so intense it might even lead some to make the NDP their second choice not the Liberals. 

In any case, the Liberals never promised PR.  Everyone here including myself knew that Trudeau did not want PR. 

By the way, I am a PR convert with only one concern that would be taken care of with the Dion model. 

Liberals’ base could be smaller than Conservatives’, poll suggests

By PETER MAZEREEUW      APR. 12, 2019

The Liberals’ ‘ceiling’ of possible support shrank to 38 per cent during a three-day period earlier this month, below the vote share the party won in the last election.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/04/12/liberals-base-could-be-smaller-than-conservatives-poll-suggests/196314

NorthReport wrote:

It seems that the non-Conservative political parties are not up to the task but we will only have ourselves to blame if the Conservatives win again

What about this strategy that was proposed but never adopted or is it already too late for that now?  

Problems I see with this are as follows:

There is no question, no matter how many problems the Liberals have, they are much better than the Conservatives. Liberals though think they are King Tut and everybody needs to do only what Liberals say, but Liberals cannot do this alone anymore, and maybe never will be able to again. As long as the Liberals keep focusing on smashing the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives, they are just shooting themselves in the foot. NDP know that Liberals are the party of big business just like the Conservatives so they are reticent to join forces, but do NDPers really want to be contributing to another Conservative government? In politics as in the other areas of life, one never gets everything they want, and wise people understand successful politics is always part compromise.

The Greens have the right issue, climate change, the wrong leadership, but at least they know that time is running out for life on Planet Earth.

Cullen calls for joint nominations to beat Harper

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cullen-calls-for-joint-nominations-to-beat-harper-1.1005626

I agree. I just get infuriated when people seem to get pleasure with the scenario of a Conservative government. That would be bad news for all leftists.

How dop we put an end to the 2 party solution? I mean the NDP  ar 15%? What can we do without getting excited by Liberals free falling at the benefit of the Conservatives?

Yes, the Liberals are elitist,corporate and corrupt as are the CPC. At least we get some  progress with the LIbs. We get NOTHING but hard times with the Cons.

I can't speak for every voter but I find the SNC Lavalin 'scandal'  and it's a real canard.

SNC Lavalin has been corrupt for many years,,it's kind of an open secret here in Quebec ...They were corrupt during the Chrétien era, the Maretin era and the Harper era..I think they were corrupt when Mulroney was still PM.

They and Trudeau knew they were but ignored it to keep jobs in Canada. They're all guilty.

That's why I call JWR a Conservative operative and someone who took a fit when she was demoted out of Justice Minister. I highly question her motives but if sahe gives us Scheer, I will hold a grudge. I hope her political career is over. But it's not likely.

NorthReport wrote:

Cullen calls for joint nominations to beat Harper

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cullen-calls-for-joint-nominations-to-beat-harper-1.1005626

I think Instant Runoff Voting is preferable to joint-nominations.

Pondering wrote:

From the same report:

Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 45.8 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative while 45.5 per cent would consider voting Liberal. Four in ten (39.4%) would consider voting NDP, 34.0 per cent would consider voting Green, 9.1 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 35.5 per cent would consider voting for the BQ.

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 30.7 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (27.2%), Singh (8.4%), May (7.6%) and Bernier (2.3%). Twenty three per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Few than half of Canadians (43.3%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 39.7 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. Three in ten (29.8%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.4 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.6%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader 27.1 per cent said Blanchet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only). Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Conservatives 51.7 points, followed by the Liberals with 51.0 points, the NDP 42.1 points, the Greens 38.6 points, the People’s Party 27.0 points and the BQ 33.2 points (QC only). 

I also went to the break down on the Nanos site hoping to say "but look at the youth numbers" but they don't look so great for the NDP either. The Conservatives are depressingly strong too. 

What does message can be taken in the fact that 35.5% of those polled would consider voting for a party which doesn't nominate candidates in their province and ultimately doesn't want to be part of their country?

Maybe 35% in Québec. But I highly doubt that too.

I have been saying for a while here that I think the BQ will be the surprise in this election. With people in Quebec turninga away from the BQ, fury with the Liberals, the impression that the Conservatives offer nothing -- the BQ, sounding as close as it can to the CAQ, is going to do very well. I think it may end up agan with the balance of power.

Sadly, I think they will side with the Conservatives.

Forum 

C - 42%

L - 29%

N - 12%

Pondering wrote:

A February poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that 50 per cent of Albertans would support secession from Canada. In contrast, in an October 2016 poll, 82 per cent of Quebecers said they have no desire to revisit the idea of sovereignty any time soon.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/a-new-poll-suggests-alberta-is-the-province-that-most-wants-to-separate-from-canada-not-quebec

82% of Quebecers do not want to revisit separation. 

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItODFlZDMyNTg5MjZiIiwidCI6IjJmMmY5NDEyLWY5YjktNDE0ZC1iMDBmLTc4NjJhMzk1YjQxOCIsImMiOjN9&pageName=ReportSection10

Liberals still have a substantial lead in Quebec. The Bloc looks to be about 20%.

The CAQ did not win because Quebec is moving right they won because they are the only federalist alternative to the Liberals and Quebecers wanted a change. With 82% of Quebecers not wanting to revisit independence as long as the left insists on embracing it the right will win. 

All of which simply makes the case that you can give it a rest about demanding that every party in Quebec renounce sovereigntism.  It's enough that it's off the table.  Let it go.

Ken Burch wrote:

All of which simply makes the case that you can give it a rest about demanding that every party in Quebec renounce sovereigntism.  It's enough that it's off the table.  Let it go.

QS must remain authentic so they cannot renounce sovereigntism. QS must support sovereignism. Can you understand what I am saying here, and have always said? If QS were to renounce sovereigntism they would lose a tremendous amount of support. Sovereignty still has by some accounts 35% support in Quebec. That is very high. That is a solid large core.To run on it makes them appear delusional.

They must begin with the acknowledgement that many Quebecers, including supporters of sovereignty, recognize that Quebecers are exhausted with the topic.  About 50% of sovereignists don't want to talk about it. 

35% support is really high but it is split between left and right. No more than 20 to 25% is on the left. Non-sovereignists account for 65% of voters. Of them many have been willing to vote for the PQ anyway. There are leftists that don't see sovereignty as a realistic option. I'm sure Brexit hasn't helped. Supporters of sovereignty are split between those who consider Quebec borders sacred and those that acknowledge indigeneous peoples have the same right to break off .

QS needs to say:

We are still firmly convinced that Quebec would be better governed if we were fully independent but we understand that Quebecers don't want to revisit the topic. Quebecers want a government that will manage what power they already have in the service of the people. We wish to prove to Quebecers that corruption can be defeated. We can have policies that benefit workers and families while still creating employment.

Our economic future is dependent on a healthy well-educated population. Money spent on children doesn't show its full impact economically for a decade or two but governments need to have the courage and integrity to think long-term not just the next 4 years. 

The provinicial government has enough power to dramatically improve the lives of 99% of Quebecers. That is what we want to do and it will take more than 4 years, but 4 years is a start. Short term while we can't give unions everything they want we can engage in honest non-confrontational negotiations that take into account the public purse as well as the needs of workers. 

That isn't actually well-written. It isn't focused or concrete enough to be convincing.  

QS does not have to renounce sovereighty but it does have to appear to have at least one foot on earth. Right now sovereignty appears to be their main unifying reason for existing. I want them to win an election. If we get PR I want their focus to be on things that are important to Quebecers rather that what is important to QS. 

Badriya wrote:

Pondering, QS has always put a sovereign Quebec as a low priority.  When they had 10 main planks in their platform it was number 10.  They now have 14, and sovereignty is number 14. And the points have always been listed in order of priority.

https://plateforme.quebecsolidaire.net/[/quote]

But it doesn't play out like that when they speak. A few months ago when commenting on climate change they mentioned independence would be needed to achieve progress. Sovereignty may be #14 but if whenever they discuss the other 13 they say it would be better achieved if we had sovereignty then their first issue is really sovereignty. 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.

I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.

I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.

I hope you are right and they stay that way.

The low number of incumbants give reasons to worry with these low polling numbers. Think of Kim Campbell's two seats with 16% of the vote. The NDP had 9 with under 7%. In that election the NDP seats were won mostly by incumbants. When a party has strong local incumbants their polling numbers are concentrated, without those the support tends to be wider and flatter. I admit, that despite this fear I have not gone through the current NDP ridings to see which ones appear safe.

Let's break it down a little though: the NDP has 28 seats outside Quebec. there are fears that the NDP could wash out there.

Take this poll aggrigator. https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/

They suggest NDP could get 33 seats at the levels in the poll. But if you drill down further you see the reasons for concern.

BC: NDP projected 6 seats down from 14.  However, the Liberals are showing 32% and the Conservatives 33.8% Further Liberal losses could lead to increased NDP popular vote but if the conservative vote goes up significantly the NDP could lose more seats than even this projects.

Alberta: NDP Member not running again. Liberals at 20% NDP at 12. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives, this seat, already without an incumbant, could be in jeapardy. This projection shows NDP holding its one seat but maybe in part becuase it does not track benefit of incumbancy.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan Again the Liberals are at nearly 20% with the Conservatives near 50%. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives the NDP at half the Conservative vote could lose more. these provinces should not be looked at together since one leaned Liberal and the other Conservative in the last election. Projection of 6 might be overly optimistic in a Liberal meltdown. They had 5 last time.

Ontario in 2015 gave the CPC 35%, the Liberals 45 with the NDP 8 seats and 16% of the vote. This projection has the NDP lower in popular vote and getting 14 seats but it shows this with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied. A significant movement from the Liberals to the Conservatives will take away many of the three-way races that could deliver seats to the NDP even with mid-teens provincial support. The NDP would get few seats anywhere with mid-teens support if the Liberals do not have enough strength to make the races 3-way.

The Quebec poll show the NDP getting three in Quebec. This is based on a poll with the NDP at nearly 14% in Quebec and the BQ at 17. If the BQ increase and the NDP drop -- this is less likely.

Atlantic Canada: The NDP getting three with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied changes if either the Liberals or Conservatives pull ahead.

Now of course NDP could gain from further Liberal losses but this is not guaranateed and even if they do, a lopsided race between the two biggest parties means the NDP has to do more than gain a little to win.

My fear si the Liberals will sink so hard and fast that they will make it hard for the NDP to hold seats with anywhere near the polling results they have now.

NorthReport wrote:

This guy's forecasting a minority Conservative government

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-federal-projection-update-cpc-161.html

The LPC, NDP and BQ together could form a coalition, with 172 seats.  If this pollster is correct they could form a government if they defeat the CPC in a non-confidence motion.  But it's early days.