This election will be different as the platforms will be evaluated by the Parliamentry Budget Officer. The NDP has much of their platform out and it is going to be much more progressive than in the past. That could bring back a lot of voters from the Greens or it could lose a lot. It's one thing to present a good provincial platform entirely another to do so federally.
The NDP has won provincial elections for decades. Federal and provincial parties are viewed very differently by the public. It helps their rep that the Greens have won provincially but it won't necessarily transmit to federal votes. Are federal Green voting intentions up particularly in the provinces that voted Green? It could be the Green vote is solid or semi-solid but I doubt it.
The Orange Crush had everyone claiming Quebec was veering left and the Legault victory has people thinking the province is leaning right and neither are true.
People are signaling annoyance with the Liberals but I don't get the sense that Canadians are ready to elect a party other than the Conservatives or Liberals. The Orange Crush happened with a centrist NDP, long in the tooth wounded Liberal party and newly formed Reform/Conservative party. As soon as the traditional parties recovered even though the Conservative party is a fake not the original.
It looks like Scheer is going all low-key Trump which most voters don't yet know.
Trudeau will begin a dramatic recovery with the beginning of the election campaign.
I think the NDP's new direction will pay off but not hugely yet. It will take another couple of election cycles.
I think the Greens are gaining strength federally but that by the time people are looking at their ballots they will go traditional. Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP for those who can't stand the stench.
