With public opinion polling for the federal election placing the Liberals and Conservatives roughly equal, I would like to draw attention to larger trends in Canadian politics that are not positive for Liberals. Right now, we only have 2 Liberal Premiers. Is there any precedent for that in Canadian political history? For the last couple of years (Nova Scotia excluded) election after election has seen Liberal governments defeated. This is even affecting Liberal strongholds, like Ontario where the Liberals were reduced to less than party status, and Prince Edward Island, where the Liberals are falling fast after being eclipsed by the Greens as the progressive alternative to the PCs. Even in New Brunswick, the Greens are present, and represent a direct threat to the Liberals there. They have no representation in Saskatchewan and Alberta, and failed to retain party status in Manitoba. Quebec seems to be going through a realignment right now that I'm not sure how long it will take the Liberals to recover, if they ever do. The only thing they ever had going for them is "we won't call a referendum," but with the CAQ around, how much sway does that have? Also note that according to Angus Reid, the most unpopular Premiers, for a while, have generally been Liberal Premiers. Do they have any hope of recovery any time soon? They are currently polling well in Ontario, however that election is a long ways away. The Ontario Liberals could still fail if the NDP plays its hand well.
What I want to suggest is that rather than going through a political cycle, we are going through a realignment that will see the Liberals play a more marginal role in provincial politics. Can this have a federal spill-over effect? How can the left capitalize on this realignment to advocate and implement its agenda?