2019 polls part 2

L - 151 seats Down 33 seats

C - 130 seats, Up 31 seats

B - 26 seats, Up 16 seats

N - 24 seats, Down 20 seats

G - 5 seats, Up 4 seats

P - 1 seat, Up 1 seat

I - 1 seat, Up 1 seat

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/projections-update-october-10th-its.html

Con 34

Lib 29

NDP 17

Green 9

BQ 7

PPC 3

 Singh’s the thing, at least for now. In a tight federal election campaign that has witnessed few breakout moments or true collapses for the parties and their leaders thus far, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Monday night’s English language leaders debate appears to be having – at minimum – a short-term beneficial impact on New Democrat fortunes.

The latest public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute indicates a three-point bump for the NDP to 17 per cent of leaning and decided voters – the highest the party has been since the writs were drawn. The party now puts more daylight between itself and the Greens, while narrowing what had earlier been a significant gap between itself and the incumbent Liberals.

This move to the left is defined by two factors: Singh’s personal favourability ratings, which continue to exceed that of every other party leader, and the continued, wobbly indefinite vote dynamic evident among those on the left of the political spectrum. Indeed, only one-in-three (32%) NDP supporters say they are “absolutely certain” that the party will earn their choice at the ballot box.

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-post-english-debate/

I hadn't noticed this one come out, so it must have done so during the wee hours this morning.  Greg Lyle's Innovative Research Group, which is usually pretty good:

LIB 35% / CON 31% / NDP 15% /GRN 10% / BQ 6% / PPC 3%

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Federal-Election-Political-Landscape-Tracking.pdf

I fed Innovative's regional numbers into Bryan Breguet's TooCloseToCall simulator and I get the following seat totals:

LIB 172 / PC 109 / NDP 34 / GRN 3 / BQ 19 / PPC 1

I would of course be delighted with that result but I just can't reconcile myself to those Quebec numbers, nor do I think it has fully captured Jagmeet Singh's continuing uptick.

The pollsters are starting to splinter, with some showing an ongoing Liberal lead (Nanos, Innovative and I expect, EKOS today) and others (Forum, Angus Reid, Kouvalis and to a lesser degree, Mainstreet) taking or about to take a very different tack.

All show significant pickup for the NDP and Bloc and Frank Graves on Twitter is suggesting that he is also finding a surprising level of PPC. 

I am a bit torn by the latter.  On the one hand, it would be alarming to see a LePen-type party gaining support.  On the other, it all takes away from the Conservatives nationally and perhaps the Bloc in some parts of Quebec, so, given that the PPC won't be winning more than one seat anyway, a few points off the Consrvatives would be a good thing.

Overall, NDPers should be feeling pretty good going into the Thanksgiving weekend, where voting intentions and trajectories may get baked-in with the pumpkin pies.  Liberals like me are getting pretty nervous about being squeezed on two fronts.

josh wrote:

It’s not really a LePen type party.  LePen believes in significan state involvement in the economy.  It’s more the U.S. Republican Party, libertarian in economics, nativist in other respects,  Except it doesn’t even have Trump’s skeptical view towards free trade.  

Fair enough.  I was thinking about the xenophobia, racism and small-minded nationalism.  

Kouvalis is saying on Twitter he'll have a full set of numbers out today.

WOW! Overnight,@theJagmeetSingh & the NDP only improved from yesterday. NDP approaching 20%. Need to weight & prepare for full release, layer today. Also working on "hard" supporters/ committed voters ~ more good stuff! Big shake up in Atlantic Canada & QC too!

https://twitter.com/NickKouvalis/status/1182620410640322560

Is this a Con job?

https://vancouversun.com/news/national/election-2019/singh-soars-ndp-leaders-approval-rating-rises-trudeau-has-highest-disapproval-rating-poll/wcm/cd860baa-f744-48f7-a011-1c0310ec1861/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Singh sizzles in English debate, but will NDP momentum solidify, or ultimately fizzle?

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NDP makes gains in voter intention, but certainty of new supporters remains soft

October 10, 2019 – Singh’s the thing, at least for now. In a tight federal election campaign that has witnessed few breakout moments or true collapses for the parties and their leaders thus far, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Monday night’s English language leaders debate appears to be having – at minimum – a short-term beneficial impact on New Democrat fortunes.

The latest public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute indicates a three-point bump for the NDP to 17 per cent of leaning and decided voters – the highest the party has been since the writs were drawn. The party now puts more daylight between itself and the Greens, while narrowing what had earlier been a significant gap between itself and the incumbent Liberals.

This move to the left is defined by two factors: Singh’s personal favourability ratings, which continue to exceed that of every other party leader, and the continued, wobbly indefinite vote dynamic evident among those on the left of the political spectrum. Indeed, only one-in-three (32%) NDP supporters say they are “absolutely certain” that the party will earn their choice at the ballot box.

Related: Centre-Left Scuffle

Overall, it is the Conservative Party of Canada that continues to hold a narrow lead over the Liberal Party, 34 per cent to 29 per cent respectively. Recent days have seen declines for the CPC – down three points since last week, while the Liberals stand still – statistically unchanged over the same period of time.

More Key Findings:

• Jagmeet Singh’s favourability has increased 20 points, from 39 per cent to 59 per cent since the campaign began. Meanwhile, CPC leader Andrew Scheer is down six points in that period to 38 per cent, and Justin Trudeau is unchanged at 35 per cent.

• NDP support is up significantly among women aged 18-34, but also finds a boost among men over the age of 34. Young people are the same cohort who turned out big for the Liberals in 2015 and propelled Justin Trudeau’s Liberals to victory, but this group traditionally votes at lower rates than the rest of the population.

• Among voters who have not fully committed to their first-choice party and who say that the Liberals are currently their second choice, six-in-ten (59%) say it is at least somewhat likely that they will support the Liberals.

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-post-english-debate/

JeffWells wrote:

Kouvalis is saying on Twitter he'll have a full set of numbers out today.

EKOS as well

Kouvalis now says Campaign Research won't be out until Saturday afternoon. Over 4,000 surveyed; regional and battleground breakdowns.

.

I am posting this here as well as the election thread because the following information raises some questions with regard to the polls. 

ETA: We have some actual voting numbers now as opposed to poll numbers and they are good for first of all for the NDP, then the Greens because they are overwhelmingly youth votes. The national campus vote, which is now finished, is 111,300 compared to just over 70,000 in 2015, which was considered the best year for the youth vote. That is an increase of 59% in the campus vote over 2015. (https://election.ctvnews.ca/turnout-at-early-on-campus-polls-significant...)

This is good news for the NDP because, unlike 2015 when the youth overwhelmingly voted Liberal, the youth vote shows the greatest increase in the 18-35 age cohort compared to its percentage support in the entire decided population voter percentage, according to the latest Leger poll, with 25% NDP support in the 18-35 age cohort versus 18% (+7) support for the total population.

The Greens are +4% for 18-35 age cohort compared to its percentage support (15%) in the entire decided population voter percentage (10%).

The Liberals are -3% for 18-35 age cohort compared to its percentage support (28%) in the entire decided population voter percentage (31%).

The Cons are -6% for 18-35 age cohort compared to its percentage support (31%) in the entire decided population voter percentage (25%).

Of course, most campus voters are in the 18-24 age cohort rather than a 18-35 cohort, a cohort that is even more likely to support the NDP or Greens than the other parties, so it is highly likely that the margins would be even greater if one had a poll of actual campus voters. If youth comes out anywhere in the ballpark of the 59% increase in campus votes, the polls which are typicallly modeled on the last election(s) and therefore under-representing youth voters would mean that that actual NDP and Green votes could be significantly above their poll percentages.

It is not easy to get percentage increases in other age cohorts to offset a large increase in the youth vote, because the older cohorts already vote at much higher percentages. 

There is also the question of whether youth who head home for the Thanksgiving weekend from campus and have already voted start influencing their parents vote, especially with regard to the issue of climate change. 

For reference here is the Leger poll url. 

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Federal-Politics-Oct-9-2...

NDP now 17% with a rising momentum!

NDP gaining in latest Mainstreet Research numbers

Oct 11 2019 — Marco Vigliotti — iPolitics

With just 10 days left before voters head to the polls, the Conservatives are narrowly ahead of the Liberals in the national fight for first, while the NDP continues to grow its support in the wake of Monday’s English-language leaders’ debate, according to new polling numbers from Mainstreet Research. According to the latest results from […]

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/11/ndp-gaining-in-latest-mainstreet-research-numbers/

Conservatives lead in 10 of the 15 most recent polls 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Campaign_period

Nanos for this morning:

LIB 33.2% / CON 32.1% / NDP 18.1% /GRN 8.9% / BQ 5.9% / PPC 1.4%

NDP up 2.8%.  Have a look at slide 4 on the PM preference at the link below and look at the rise of the NDP and how it corresponds with the decline in the undecided.  

https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos

LPC: 33.2% (-2.2)

CPC: 32.1% (-1.1)

NDP: 18.1% (+2.8)

GPC: 8.9% (+0.1)

BQ: 5.9% (+0.6)

PPC: 1.4% (-)

Nanos Research / October 11, 2019

Well it looks like Dart/Maru is making false statements in the press release for their latest poll for the Sun/PostMedia

 https://dartincom.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/SunPostMedia-Fed-Vote-Oct-12-2019-F.pdf

While Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives have held their ground for the national lead at just 33% (N/C), 

While the actual data shows them at -5%. Dart Insight is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/contact-us/

CPC: 31% (-3)
LPC: 29% (-3)
NDP: 19% (+5)
GPC: 10% (-1)
BQ: 7% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-)

Campaign Research / October 10, 2019 / 

Most Canadians 'unhappy' with Liberals, Conservatives: Nanos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OHHERsFHNg

Nanos Preferred PM compared to 4 weeks ago 

Everyone except May and Bernier gained because the % unsure dropped by 9.9%. Singh gained by far the most: 8.7% (the only improvement beyond the margin of error).

Trudeau 32.0% (+0.2%)

Scheer 25.1% (+1.9%)

Singh 15.9% (+8.7%)

Blanchet 2.3% (+1.0%)

May 7.8% (-0.5%)

Bernier 1.6% (-1.2%)

Unsure 15.2%

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-con...

Why is the talk about a Liberal minority rather than a Conservative win? They are pretty much neck in neck aren't they? The Liberals have a small lead but not a strong one from what I have read. Could more votes for the NDP lead to a Conservative win? 

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Why is the talk about a Liberal minority rather than a Conservative win? They are pretty much neck in neck aren't they? The Liberals have a small lead but not a strong one from what I have read. Could more votes for the NDP lead to a Conservative win? 

In which of the 338 ridings are you thinking about? Any seat taken by the NDP from either the Conservatives or the Liberals is a good thing.

Yes. Yes. You bet, you bet. You’re God damned right! Yes! 

If you are NDP, that is. 

Peopke who claim to be NDP and progressive but really aren’t perhaps inadvertently expose themselves with questions like this.

Abacus Data

NDP just gained another 3% on Liberals and 5% on the Conservatives

Libs - 32%, Down 1%

Cons - 32%, Down 3%

NDP - 18%, Up 2%

Grn - 9%, Up 1%

https://abacusdata.ca/election-poll-ndp-and-bq-rise-as-liberals-and-conservatives-remain-deadlocked/

Pondering wrote:

Why is the talk about a Liberal minority rather than a Conservative win? They are pretty much neck in neck aren't they? The Liberals have a small lead but not a strong one from what I have read. Could more votes for the NDP lead to a Conservative win? 

What to you mean by win?  Could be a conservative minority, but no way by these numbers can I see a conservative majority.

Misfit wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Why is the talk about a Liberal minority rather than a Conservative win? They are pretty much neck in neck aren't they? The Liberals have a small lead but not a strong one from what I have read. Could more votes for the NDP lead to a Conservative win? 

In which of the 338 ridings are you thinking about? Any seat taken by the NDP from either the Conservatives or the Liberals is a good thing.

Yes. Yes. You bet, you bet. You’re God damned right! Yes! 

If you are NDP, that is. 

Peopke who claim to be NDP and progressive but really aren’t perhaps inadvertently expose themselves with questions like this.

This is always the most contentious issue in this thread and people often talk past one another.

First, the relative number of Liberal and Conservative seats may, but will not necessarily, determine who gets to form a minority government.  A plurality of seats may not be enough, if you can't find enough support from the other parties to form a government.  And the convention is that the incumbent always has the first-mover opportunity to try to form that government.

So, a smaller Liberal contingent could form the government if there were sufficent NDP and Green seats to outweigh the Conservatives (and their allies, if any) - if Jagmeet Singh and/or Elizabeth May agreed to support a Liberal government, presumably with certain conditions.  That happened in Ontario 1985-87.  I am not talking about the Accord as such, just that the PCs in that instance had the most seats but the combination of Liberal and NDP seats in total was enough to push the PCs out.

That is arrayed against whatever working arrangement the Conservatives could put together, presumably Max Bernier, who may be a caucus of one and possibly the BQ, who may have a pretty sizeable contingent but are obviously at odds with the Conservatives on pipelines.

Then there's the issue of whether a vote for the NDP is "a vote for the Conservatives".  It isn't.  There are all manner of good and valid reasons to vote for the NDP and saving the Liberals' bacon/keeping Scheer out isn't basis enough to dissuade most voters.  There is a slightly different answer to the question do some votes for the NDP make Conservative government more likely?

The arithmetic is simple. 

1. An NDP vote in a riding that the NDP can win and the Liberals cannot does not increase the likelihood of a Conservative government.  

2. An NDP vote in a riding that neither the NDP nor Liberals (or Greens) can win does not increase the likelihood of a Conservative government.  

3. An NDP vote in a riding that only the Liberals and NDP (or Greens) can win does not increase the likelihood of a Conservative government.

4. An NDP vote in a riding that the NDP cannot win but that either the Liberals or Conservatives could win does increase the likelihood of a Conservative government.

I have not said anything about an NDP vote in a riding that only the Bloc and Liberals can win because I don't know where the Bloc will land on the potential to support a Conservative minority government.

That is not to say that in ridings in my category #4 there aren't many other factors that the voter might consider that trump keeping out Scheer.  Obviously for many on here, showing support for the NDP even in unwinnable ridings may be one.  Indifference as to which of the Conservatives or Liberals form the government could be another.  The local candidates could be a factor.  The hope expressed for the long-term diappearance of the Liberal party could be yet another, trading potential short-term pain for long-term gain.  The simple unwillingness to vote for a less-favoured or repugnant choice is clearly a biggie. There may be policy "no-go" reasons like Trans-Mountain that make a Liberal vote inconceivable.

That does not negate the straightforward arithmetic that an NDP vote in a riding like Oakville does make a Conservative government somewhat more likely. 

And the question is not really whether committed New Democrats or Greens will hold their nose and vote Liberal.  The real question is whether unaffiliated voters who would have a preference for the NDP or Greens but could live with the Liberals and abhor the Conservatives will do so.