It is very clear now there will not be a Liberal majority government.
How could the Liberals possibly be doing so badly against such a dullard as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer?
Under the circumstances it appears to be inevitable that the growing disenchantment with the current Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will lead to a full-blow Liberal leadership convention.
Who will be the leading contenders to replace Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau?
Justin Trudeau. The Liberals very well could make up the government but by a minority which will give the NDP a lot of leverage.
I thought that was what all you partisans wanted.
Vote blue.
If the CPC do not get a majority it will remain as Trudeau. Then maybe Perter McKay as Conservative.
Singh has managed to save his job for sure.
Maxime Bernier may be working as a night manager in a gas station.
If the Liberals lose and the Cons formed a minority government, there won't be a leadership election anytime soon, because the Liberals would be expecting a snap election at any moment and would assume they didn't have time for a leadership convention
Probably so but there are probably also mutterings about forcing him out before the next election. My bet is they will try for a woman.
If the Conservatives have enough seats to do a deal with the Bloc, it would seem likely to be an awkward marriage and potentially quite unpopular both in Quebec and BC (how do they reconcile their pipeline positions, for example?).
Because Justin Trudeau still has some resonance both in BC and Quebec and has yet to see the lights go out in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I think that he would stay on, awaiting an opportunity to defeat the CPC-BQ arrangement in the House, as Ken has noted above.
I do agree that the Liberal Party would be likely to choose a woman as the next Leader when the time comes and at the moment, Chrystia Freeland would probably have the edge on that.
What about JWR?
What about JWR?
She's an ex-Liberal.
What about JWR?
Are you sure your post is on the right thread?
You don’t need a woman just for the sake of having a woman. Martha Hall Findlay wants to kill the Canadian dairy industry just like Maxime Bernier with the PPC. Christina Freeland is Christia Freeland. These are extreme right-wing people.
I want a leader who has a good vision and good ideas. If someone comes forward whenever the time comes to replace Trudeau who also happens to be a female then that is excellent.
So far, if you focus only on gender, the results could be scary.
Probably so but there are probably also mutterings about forcing him out before the next election. My bet is they will try for a woman.
Fair enough. I'm basing my assumptions on how things played out with his dad in the 1979-1980 period. But that was forty years ago and it's not clear that Scheer is going to willingly play the Joe Clark role if a scenario like that occurs.
Even though she was expelled, I can actually imagine JWR being begged to come back and stand for the leadership were Justin to be forced out after a minority or majority defeat. Not only is she a woman, but electing JWR as leader would be the boldest possible declaration that the LPC had totally broken with Justin and his ethical problems.
Plus, it would give them another chance to look progressive without actually becoming progressive-JWR would be the first FN leader of a federal party, but from what we know of her policy ideas she would actually be on the right-wing of the LPC. She might also be the only possible Liberal prime minister who could get away with stonewalling on the court ruling requiring cash payouts to Indigenous children and their families.
As an idea, it's right there in the LPC wheelhouse, isn't it?
I would think the only way that Trudeau faces a serious leadership challenge is if the NDP jumps into second place in seats. If that happened it would be because Singh did something no other NDP leader has ever done. talking seat rich Southern Ontario into voting NDP.
Probably so but there are probably also mutterings about forcing him out before the next election. My bet is they will try for a woman.
Fair enough. I'm basing my assumptions on how things played out with his dad in the 1979-1980 period. But that was forty years ago and it's not clear that Scheer is going to willingly play the Joe Clark role if a scenario like that occurs.
Even though she was expelled, I can actually imagine JWR being begged to come back and stand for the leadership were Justin to be forced out after a minority or majority defeat. Not only is she a woman, but electing JWR as leader would be the boldest possible declaration that the LPC had totally broken with Justin and his ethical problems.
I think there is next to zero chance of that. Even those who might sympathize with JWR on her treatment during the SNC Lavalin issue will not thank her for the damage that she inflicted politically. I am not sure that JWR would be well-received even if she had done no more than whistleblowing but there was also a sense that she picked her spots very carefully for maximum damage.
There was also a strong undercurrent even before "Lavscam" that JWR is difficult and egocentric. I had certainly heard this several years ago from people who worked for JWR on the Vancouver-Granville campaign. I am treading carefully here because I know that this is a charge sometimes unfairly levelled in politics against strong women but I did have the sense that it was more than just somebody being principled and resolute. I also have to say that I have no firsthand knowledge whatsoever.
The one "on the other hand" that I could raise is that the Liberal Party has no membership as such and hence no membership fee, having scrapped the concept in 2012. That means that anyone who wants to vote in leadership can do so by signing up online as a "supporter" - a little bit akin to registration in the U.S. So while the existing "supporter" base would be extremely unlikely to support JWR, a determined push among citizens, civil society groups and/or First Nations and perhaps even a few mischief-makers could conceivably swamp the existing supporter base. I don't know what it sits at currently but it has traditionally been a few hundred thousand strong.
What about JWR?
She's an ex-Liberal.
I do not think that she is seen as an ex-Liberal. She is ex-Team Trudeau.
The fact that she did not jump to another party is likely an indication that she has leadership aspirations.
I don't think she renouced her party membership and I am not sure that the party removed it either. She has this disapporval of the leadership that in this scenario would be on the way out. I think she would have had the strongest head start of any if she spoke French. Freeland has serious problems with many people and gives no confidence that the Liberals could recover at the cost of the NDP. If anything she would lose more to the NDP.
It is worth noting that any leadership campaign would not miss the fact that Trudeau did not lose support to the Conservatives (at least so far). He has lost to the Greens, BQ, NDP and possibly non voters. Freeland is not the person to get that support back from any of them.
Catherine Mckenna would be in the pole position if Trudeau loses and she survives in Ottawa centre. If she can hold of the NDP in her own seat she might be seen as someone to do that nationally.
If Judy Klassen had run against someone other than Niki Ashton it would be more likely that she would win and Trudeau lost the government. I think it is not very likely that Niki would lose to a Liberal and have them still lose the country. Otherwise Klassen could have been a contender.
Probably so but there are probably also mutterings about forcing him out before the next election. My bet is they will try for a woman.
Fair enough. I'm basing my assumptions on how things played out with his dad in the 1979-1980 period. But that was forty years ago and it's not clear that Scheer is going to willingly play the Joe Clark role if a scenario like that occurs.
Even though she was expelled, I can actually imagine JWR being begged to come back and stand for the leadership were Justin to be forced out after a minority or majority defeat. Not only is she a woman, but electing JWR as leader would be the boldest possible declaration that the LPC had totally broken with Justin and his ethical problems.
I think there is next to zero chance of that. Even those who might sympathize with JWR on her treatment during the SNC Lavalin issue will not thank her for the damage that she inflicted politically. I am not sure that JWR would be well-received even if she had done no more than whistleblowing but there was also a sense that she picked her spots very carefully for maximum damage.
There was also a strong undercurrent even before "Lavscam" that JWR is difficult and egocentric. I had certainly heard this several years ago from people who worked for JWR on the Vancouver-Granville campaign. I am treading carefully here because I know that this is a charge sometimes unfairly leveled in politics against strong women but I did have the sense that it was more than just somebody being principled and resolute. I also have to say that I have no firsthand knowledge whatsoever.
The one "on the other hand" that I could raise is that the Liberal Party has no membership as such and hence no membership fee, having scrapped the concept in 2012. That means that anyone who wants to vote in leadership can do so by signing up online as a "supporter" - a little bit akin to registration in the U.S. So while the existing "supporter" base would be extremely unlikely to support JWR, a determined push among citizens, civil society groups and/or First Nations and perhaps even a few mischief-makers could conceivably swamp the existing supporter base. I don't know what it sits at currently but it has traditionally been a few hundred thousand strong.
Interesting. Do you expect that that change could result in the existing political culture within the LPC being changed from below?
I would think the only way that Trudeau faces a serious leadership challenge is if the NDP jumps into second place in seats. If that happened it would be because Singh did something no other NDP leader has ever done. talking seat rich Southern Ontario into voting NDP.
I think you are right unless the Conservatives form government - especially given the elder Trudeau example of mania-loss of majority -new majority. Justin Trudeau would only resign if he could not produce a minority.
Ken Burch wrote:
The one "on the other hand" that I could raise is that the Liberal Party has no membership as such and hence no membership fee, having scrapped the concept in 2012. That means that anyone who wants to vote in leadership can do so by signing up online as a "supporter" - a little bit akin to registration in the U.S. So while the existing "supporter" base would be extremely unlikely to support JWR, a determined push among citizens, civil society groups and/or First Nations and perhaps even a few mischief-makers could conceivably swamp the existing supporter base. I don't know what it sits at currently but it has traditionally been a few hundred thousand strong.
Interesting. Do you expect that that change could result in the existing political culture within the LPC being changed from below?
On individual policies? Perhaps. Legalization of cannabis was grassroots driven at the LPC Convention in 2012 (which also adopted the "supporter" model in lieu of membership). The LPC bigwigs didn't like the legalization proposal much and wanted to divert it to decriminalization but the delegates just forged ahead regardless.
The thing is, the leadership selection is a very broad franchise of essentially anyone who wants to register, so it's a bit hard to figure out who that electorate would be depending on the leadership campaign dynamics. In theory, the "supporters" could elect a very progressive candidate or for that matter a very conservative one.
On policy however, it is still a delegated model, so it gets brought up at the riding level, then provincially and then to the federal convention floor, so on policy supporters can influence but not close the deal unless they show up in person.
If the Conservatives have enough seats to do a deal with the Bloc, it would seem likely to be an awkward marriage and potentially quite unpopular both in Quebec and BC (how do they reconcile their pipeline positions, for example?).
Go ahead with TM and leave Energy East dead in its bed. Even if the Cons got a majority I don't think they'd impose EE on Quebec, that would be like executing Louis Riel again.
Also note that according to the polls TM has majority support in BC. There are lots of people in BC who oppose it of course but most of them are in ridings where the Cons have no hope of winning anyway.
How could the Liberals possibly be doing so badly against such a dullard as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer?
Canadians are starting to understand how fake and fucked up Trudeau is? They're deciding not to give him a pass for his shitty behavior after all.
How could the Liberals possibly be doing so badly against such a dullard as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer?
Canadians are starting to understand how fake and fucked up Trudeau is? They're deciding not to give him a pass for his shitty behavior after all.
I wonder if you took the percentage of people voting for the Liberals to keep out Scheer plus the number voting Conservative to kick out Trudeau if there you would find your majority. Might explain why neither of the the two biggest parties cannot get more than a third of the voter support - and this is at the same time.
Also note that according to the polls TM has majority support in BC. There are lots of people in BC who oppose it of course but most of them are in ridings where the Cons have no hope of winning anyway.
What was the question on those polls? If it was for instance; BC has had a pipeline for oil and gas for 60 years to you support shutting it down and transporting the same product by rail; then yes I am sure the majority support the existing pipeline. If you ask whether tanker traffic in Burrard Inlet should increase from a tanker a week at most to multiple tankers a day the answer gets way different especially if you ask the people who live at the terminus of this evil export industry.
Also note that according to the polls TM has majority support in BC. There are lots of people in BC who oppose it of course but most of them are in ridings where the Cons have no hope of winning anyway.
What was the question on those polls? If it was for instance; BC has had a pipeline for oil and gas for 60 years to you support shutting it down and transporting the same product by rail; then yes I am sure the majority support the existing pipeline. If you ask whether tanker traffic in Burrard Inlet should increase from a tanker a week at most to multiple tankers a day the answer gets way different especially if you ask the people who live at the terminus of this evil export industry.
I have seen a couple polls with majority support for TM. If these are the same polls there was a preamble that was biased, a question that was biased and some quetion about the demographic representation of the poll. There have been a series of industry polls attempting to manufacture the answer they want. One ofthe polls had a fair question but also had the preamble and a bias (I can't remember if it was regional or demographic). You may be able to google biased polls for pipeline and find references to these. I am not sure what these polls were doing thinking they could fool very many people.
Also there was this one with majority support in BC:
https://globalnews.ca/news/4180482/majority-of-canadians-support-trans-m...
55 per cent of British Columbian respondents support it, with 37 per cent of them opposing it.
I have no reason to believe that this poll was manipulated and it may be the one being referred to. It is the timing of the poll that is the point.
Here is the background:
This poll was taken during the bullying of Canada by Trump. Canadians were fearful that Trump would attempt to destroy our economy. It was popular for people to go to the grocery store and avoid even US produce (many still do - I will if I have a choice). Canadians reported in the poll they were worried about a spill but there was a large number of people who wanted to get oil to tidewater to sell it to ANYONE but the USA. The anger with Trump's bullying brought the support for the pipeline over the majority level.
I really suspect that this level of support did not endure past signage of the deal in fall of 2018.
How could the Liberals possibly be doing so badly against such a dullard as Conservative leader Andrew Scheer?
Canadians are starting to understand how fake and fucked up Trudeau is? They're deciding not to give him a pass for his shitty behavior after all.
But why punish Trudeau for his shitty behavior by just voting for the OTHER old party, the other party of the rich, the other party of indifference to climate change, the party whose only idea seems to be to drag Canada back as many decades as possible?
Why punish Trudeau by punishing the poor, women, LGBTQ people, people of color?
Why punish Trudeau by voting to make life nastier and even more unjust?
There are other parties out there that people could vote for to punish Trudeau whose message isn't solely spiteful and vindictive.
