Election 2019: What the Liberals Don't Want Canadian Voters To Know

10 seats NDP

3 Greens. 

But 25% of the vote between them, therby neutering "progressive" representation in Parliament

NorthReport wrote:

It wasn’t that long ago some babblers were beating the NDP to death because they didn’t have enough candidates but not a peep about the disorganized Liberals who now are the only major party to not have a full slate. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/candidates-ridings-nomination-election-1.5298149

 

Their website shows a full slate.

The election result is not possible to predict at this point becuase the English debate is very likely to change things.

Liberal weakness:

1) not much love for Trudeau

2) no enthusiasm for him like 2015 (people liked the positive message and change from the Conservatives)

3) Many first time voters last time may not be counted on

4) broken promises have angered key constituencies

5) Third parties are at their powest - any recovery will eat into their support

6) Liberal vote strength is efficient for them -- any serious reduction would cause inefficiencies

7) Electoral reform is a sleeper issue. It prevents the Liberals from a shameless strategic vote campaign that in previous elections would already be in high gear. It will likely be muted by the broken promise this year. That could make the difference in some seats if the NDP recovers more. While the NDP is low this has not come up but if the NDP start to threaten the Liberals they have a political problem in their response and may be a little gunshy about it.

Conservative Weakness:

1) Trump, Ford have stunk up the place for the right

2) Scheer has credibility issues and is not seen as very strong

3) Scheer is squeezed from the right if he is not right enough and from the centre when he goes too far right. Bernier is weak but it is a split on the right. Bernier will be in debate.

4) Scheer does not appear to be a good campaigner and there is a perception that he is throwing mud becuase he does not have enough substance

5) the weakness of the thrid parties is helping Trudeau

6) Conservative support is over concentrated (opposite of the Green's problem)

NDP and Green weakness

1) No sugar coating this -- it is each other. The NDP did not fade as the Greens expected and is taking back some support but the Greens did have additional support

2) Economically this is not a fair fight due to cumulative years of election finance changes

3) Both parties way be spread thinly: it looks like the Greens are thinner than the NDP and could even double their support without an substantial increase in seats

4) FPTP is scaring people to vote for Conservatives or Liberals to keep the other out.

Liberal Strenngths

1) Liberals are at the moment in a well-distributed position where they do not have huge majorities but the vote is spread to maximum seats

2) All the Conservative weaknesses help the Liberals

3) Liberals, despite the discomfort with Trudeau still benefit from having done some things better than Harper and having satisfied some people. Despite the blackface, they are percieved as the better party on race and the Conservatives cannot get traction on the issue becuase of that.

4) Incumbancy

5) Divided opposition

Conservative strengths

1) Money - they have more of it than anyone else

2) There is widespread frustration and unease and SNC Lavalin plays in to the storyline of Liberal corruption (reality is Conservatives are not less corrupt but the perception is the problem

3) There is a significant block of Canadians that is racist, sexist, homophobic and anti-Quebec - theya re not as out about it as Bernier needs but just enough to appreciate the cloaked version the Conservatives promote

4) Third parties are poorly controlled in Canada and many of them flog Conservative messages without having to follow the same rules and limits as parties. Even the limits that exist are difficult to monitor since money spent on social media is illusive.

Green Strengths

1) Thumberg - and the fact that environment is the top issue for voters and the Greens are widely seen as the environment specialists politically. Singh can make inroads in this but it is hard to outgreen a Green in the mind of a voter.

2) Dificulties in opponents camps

NDP Strengths

1) Surprise - it turns out that Singh is much better on his feet than people expected and has managed soem things very well especially the blackface scandal. Singh is actually the most likeable of the leaders now. He did better in French than expected.

2) The NDP vote might be more concentrated than people think allowing the party to retain more seats than expected. This is the big unknown and distribution could also be a weakness.

3) The NDP does have a good platform (for those who see it) but this is not everything as the 2015 campaign showed

Overall I think we are in a tight position and none of the parties seems to have the means to break out. The NDP could inch up to where they were in 2015 which would be a surprise -- or they could lose party status. The fact is that these two scenarios are only inches apart. Party status loss and 2015 numbers are barely more than margin of error in the polls and rely on a number of things. This includes how the BQ fare down the stretch. The NDP is very low in Quebec but if the Conservatives, BQ and Liberals are very close a weak NDP has a chance to squeek through where it would be impossible if there were a runaway favourite. The NDP will suffer in the west, outside BC, due to the collapse of the Liberals.

The Conservatives have the Ford problem in Ontario but there are signs that they may overcome that. They have little traction except in MB, SK and AB. Still there is potential in Ontario, Atlantic and Quebec for them to squeek through.

The Liberals are not that high in seats at the moment and stand to lose 1/3 of their seats in Atlantic Canada and the West, They cannot make them up in Ontario and must do it in Quebec to at least have a razor thin majority. Looks like a difficult challenge.

I think that this may be a year where Canada will not know the government before all the votes are counted. If we had rolling poll closures like we used to we would have to wait for BC.

But still -- the numbers could change suddenly after the next debate and in any direction.

Also Canada could have a unique set of incompatibilities following the election:

The BQ and Singh are incompatible and working together would be difficult.

Liberals and Conservatives are incompatible and would also have difficulty although I have pointed out in another thread that this year they may have little choice becuase of the pipeline split.

NDP and Greens hate each other but they would face the greatest pressure from supporters to work together and policies are not that far apart on some things so this is not incompatible but extremely uncomfortable.

The BQ is, as usual, politically toxic to most outside of Quebec. The fact that they are less social democratic and more social conservative, intolerant and anti-immigrant now means that the people open to them in the past may be more cool to them now. This is not Duceppe's party. Balance of power for the BQ could result in an unthinkable agreement between Liberals and Conservatives to prevent them from having power over a government or an uncomfortable alliance between other parties that are also incompatible. It could also lead to a new election. Problem with that is that everyone knows this would favour the Conservatives who have the greatest ability to refill coffers quickly. This last point is why such an unthinkable agreement is more than just a remote possbility. The added fuel of the pipeline debate (pardon the pun) makes a Liberal-CPC agreement more possible than it has ever been outside wartime.

This means that a new election would be only months away. It also means that both parties would have a major challenge with leadership. They likely could not keep current leaders but would be afraid of dumping them in a minority. It is possible that the next election could see two care-taker leaders represent their parties in the next election. Goodale vs Ambrose? Others would likely be working on their leadership ambitions and running the country.

I think Singh will remain unless the NDP loses party status. Early to tell but it looks like he may have saved the furniture for the time being. Elizabeth May might want to step away if she does not get more than 2 seats. Peter Bevan Baker might be taking French lessons six months from now. Maybe Duceppe tries a threepeat? (That last one is a joke.)

NorthReport wrote:

What does it tell you about political bullshit and arrogance that Trudeau would make his first campaign stop in Don Davies’ Kingsway riding which Don will win by a landslide?

The Liberal candidate doesn’t even live in the riding 

That the Italian Cultural Center is every political party's favorite venue on that side of Vancouver. If past elections are a predictor I am sure by the end of the campaign every major party will use the same site.

Polltracker has moved the Liberals slightly back in front of the Conservaties seat-wise, courtesy of Abacus and this morning's Nanos polls, noting clear momentum for the NDP and Bloc.

Seat projections:

LIB141

CON134

BQ33

NDP25

GRN4

PPC1

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Even for being out of date, it projects the highest seat count for the NDP any polling or polling-related organization has yet suggested.   I'm thinking the actual seat count, if the momentum continues, could reach or even top the 40 seat mark.  Perhaps even the losses in Quebec will be somewhat minimized.  It would be nice if the BQ could at least be deprived of a third place finish in seats.

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Let's see if we babblers can do better than the manipulators er......aggregators, eh!

My prediction:

Cons - 140 seats, Up 39 seats

Libs - 133 seats, Down 51 seats 

NDP  - 60 seats, Up 16 seats

Bloc - 40 seats, Up 30 seats

Grns - 5 seats, Up 4 seats

PPC - 1 seat (Bernier), Up 1 seat

I - 1 seat (JWR), Up 1 seat

Total - 338 seats (170 required for majority)

Unless my math is wonky, you have far too many seats in total - 380 rather than 338.

Yup, that adds up to 380.

bekayne wrote:

If expanding the House of Commons helps keep the Conservatives out, so be it.

[/quote]

It's a time-honoured method.  The Reform Bill of 1832 was passed very reluctantly by the Tories under the Whigs' threat of creating enough new peerages ensure its passage

bekayne wrote:

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Let's see if we babblers can do better than the manipulators er......aggregators, eh!

My prediction:

Cons - 140 seats, Up 39 seats

Libs - 133 seats, Down 51 seats 

NDP  - 60 seats, Up 16 seats

Bloc - 40 seats, Up 30 seats

Grns - 5 seats, Up 4 seats

PPC - 1 seat (Bernier), Up 1 seat

I - 1 seat (JWR), Up 1 seat

Total - 338 seats (170 required for majority)

Unless my math is wonky, you have far too many seats in total - 380 rather than 338.

If expanding the House of Commons helps keep the Conservatives out, so be it.

If the Conservatives win the most seats and Trudeau resigns on election night, this conversation is moot. Scheer would then be Prime Minister, and the other parties, while paying lip service to opposing the Conservatives, would find some arrangement to keep him in office in that scenario.

I don’t think that Trudeau will resign. What will he do? He cannot support his lifestyle on s teacher’s salary and really isn’t good st that. He can give paid speaking tours for the rest of his life, I gueee.

the NDP is going to be financially strapped and won’t force another election. A minority government will run for four years.

Misfit wrote:

I don’t think that Trudeau will resign. What will he do? He cannot support his lifestyle on s teacher’s salary and really isn’t good st that. He can give paid speaking tours for the rest of his life, I gueee.

the NDP is going to be financially strapped and won’t force another election. A minority government will run for four years.

 

Trudeau is young enough that he can resign - stay MP, become a cabinet Minister and come back in time to say "welcome to the 2030s"

I do not think his lifestyle is any impediment.

The NDP has to build the base of the party through expanding the popularity of social democratic solutions before then if prevention is better than cure.

LIB 135

CON 130

BQ 38

NDP 29

GRN 04

PPC 01

IND 01 (Jody Wilson-Raybould)

I went through and did a look seat by seat applying the changes we are seeing. There are significant changes becuase some NDP vote going to BQ in Quebec moves a lot of Liberal seats to the BQ as well as NDP and Liberal moving to Conservative I expect will cost the NDP a couple seats in Saskatchewan for example so the changes with two parties affect parties that are not moving much themselves. I found that the NDP should pick up many seats in Ontario due to Liberal vote moving to Conservative but that the Liberals will also lose more seats there than I would ahve thought before looking at the numbers. The NDP are in some bad splits in BC as well.

So here are my numbers:

LPC 136

CPC 133

NDP 35

BQ 29

G 3

Other 1

This was difficult and there are far too many extremely close and unpredictable dynamics and I have no faith in the polls. I would not put any money on this result.

If it is true then I have Bernier out of politics by Tuesday and a major push to get Scheer to resign by the end of the month. Trudeau would follow in his father's footsteps and squander a majority. Bernier would go down in history as having saved Trudeau by a hair. I suspect that his followers will not be able to make the connections and may blame Hillary Clinton for somehow sabotaging him, instead, with some help from a Kenyan. Conservatives will blame Scheer, naturally, along with the CBC. NDP supporters will forgive Singh and make comparisons that really should be left alone. Elizabeth May will break a pearl necklace while the returns are coming in from Vancouver Island. Gilles Duceppe will remind us that he could have won as many seats last time if only his mother were a tractor and he had not long ago worn a hairnet. Trudeau will work hard to break more promises in the next year than he did between 2015 and 2019 on account that a minority is not guaranteed to last long.

However, you can see that the numbers are so tight that the bottom line has to be just a guess and maybe all this will not happen.

NorthReport wrote:

Why are all the aggregators right-wing?

The last 10 polls for the NDP average 18.6% yet Bryan Breguet is basing his projections on 17% support for the NDP.

Garbage in = garbage out!

Projections update October 15th: the NDP getting more competitive in BC and the Prairies

 

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/projections-update-october-15th-ndp.html

But you're including several Nanos and Mainstreet polls. The aggregators are still counting older polls from EKOS, Innovative and Forum.

Clearly, in the last few days, the NDP needs to hit the theme that, in the Prairies and B.C., THEY are the effective anti-Con vote.   

The question for the NDP has always been the same, can it make significant gains in the 121 seats in Ontario. The party has never been and never will be viable unless it supplants the Liberals in much of Ontario. The Liberals are not progressive and maybe Trudeau has taught that lesson to a new generation. Mulcair only got 8 seats in Ontario and lost most of the Quebec seats so Jagmeet has a very low bar to follow. Even Jack in the 2011 Crush only won 22 seats in Ontario. To be a contender for government in the next election the NDP needs to up its Ontario seat count to at least the 2011 high if not closer to 30. It is the Liberals who the NDP needs to make gains from as some of the Liberal vote looks for a real progressive alternative and Jagmeet excites the new voters because he appears to be the real deal not a used carpet salesman nicknamed Aladdin.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The question for the NDP has always been the same, can it make significant gains in the 121 seats in Ontario. The party has never been and never will be viable unless it supplants the Liberals in much of Ontario. The Liberals are not progressive and maybe Trudeau has taught that lesson to a new generation. Mulcair only got 8 seats in Ontario and lost most of the Quebec seats so Jagmeet has a very low bar to follow. Even Jack in the 2011 Crush only won 22 seats in Ontario. To be a contender for government in the next election the NDP needs to up its Ontario seat count to at least the 2011 high if not closer to 30. It is the Liberals who the NDP needs to make gains from as some of the Liberal vote looks for a real progressive alternative and Jagmeet excites the new voters because he appears to be the real deal not a used carpet salesman nicknamed Aladdin.

Iagree -- I believe the greatest gains will be made in Ontario this time due to better splits in part but they will not be to the levels you rightly say the party needs.

I think there will be losses in Western Canada that will be heartbreaking due to Liberal vote declines where the NDP vote holds but is not enough. I hope this does not happen but this is what I expect now.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I helped on Blaikie's campaign in Elmwood last time, and based on the lawn signs I saw I would have never guessed that the Liberals would have had as much support as they did. That tells me that people all across the country turned out on larger numbers to support Justin Trudeau. Where will these Liberals go? Was Singh able to connect with them and convince them that he is the change they thought Trudeau represented 4 years ago? Will they simply not vote, leaving the race to the usual Conservative-NDP dynamic? Where will this all go?