I think a rupture is happening that is or will disrupt traditional moderate left/right/centre modeling. The Progressive Conservatives split up for a reason. They do not form a logical whole anymore. To be Conservative in the past meant being conservative as in traditionalist don't rock the boat types. Old-fashioned. They were not radical. They were social conservatives and fiscal conservatives. Reformers are radicals. The parties reluctantly reunited because neither can win alone but they remain uncomfortable bedfellows. Bernier just took a bite. A significant portion of the votes the Conservatives depend on are not satisfied. They need social conservatives and the anti-immigrant vote but to get them they lose the centre votes.
Climate change and pollution are longer issues of "the left". While progressives as a whole are more likely to support more radical measures no educated person denies climate change or the need to act. They know it isn't a vast conspiracy. Insurance companies are taking it into account. Millions of dollars are being spent to protect coastlines and others are falling into the sea. How to deal with it is often guided by ideological bend but both the centre and left recognize it as a major threat. Businesses see it as an issue. Farmers see it as an issue.
I predict that the Conservatives will soon have a ceiling under 30%. Their base won't change much. They will lose swing voters many of whom are fiscal conservatives. They will drag the Liberals farther right than they are already.
Regardless of what happens this election the NDP has again proven itself a contender. I believe Singh's turban and beard caused him to lose a significant number of votes particularly in Quebec. Imagine how successful he would have been without that issue or the issue of his race. Or imagine if he had the boost Trudeau got through name recognition.
Conservatives, slowly but surely, will become the fringe party.
No and that is offensive actually. To define a party with 1/3 of the vote as heading for the fringe would be to suggest every party other than the leading party is fringe.
The reality is much different. The Conservatives are the safest party as they are far and away the party most supported by money. The Liberals are second and only competative when they are in power of have a good imediate chance at it. The conservatives even when they are deeply unpopular remain the party of choice for money and usually get the most. They also are the default right of centre party.
It is possible that they could lock themselves in with no friends and no way to get a shot at party but theya re not ever going to be fringe.
The NDP is also not fringe. I would not even call the Greens fringe although the argument could be made. The Conservatives are likely the least fringe party. The only way they could no longer be fringe is if another Conservative party took their place -- in other words a name change with the same support.
I would argue that the same is true of the NDP and the Liberals. There will naturally be a centre party, a left and a right party. One of the three could struggle badly but the three will exist as non fringe parties even if the system becomes essentially a two party system practically.
A two party system can only happen when the most right party is close enough to the centre to leave little room for both a left and centre party. So when the Conservatives leave the centre for the extremes they guarantee enough field that one party cannot cover it without splitting.
A fringe party is one that has many of the following characteristics:
1) cannot be relied on to have representation in the House,
2) not part of the conversation at election time and does not get much if any media
3) is not invited to debates
4) is not included in polling numbers
5) does not have reliable financial support at even a low level.
6) Cannot put up a slate of candidates in a substantial number of the ridings it wishes to contest
7) has no historical tradition of success (even if they struggle now)
8) has most of its supporters understanding that it will not contend for power any time soon
Sure - non fringe parties can sometiems struggle with these and fringe parties will sometimes be able to secure these. But if you look at the list a party that is not fringe will pass the bar in a few and a fringe party will fail in a few. I am sure others can propose more.
The Conservatives are no fringe by every measure - even if they could get shut out for a time.
"Fringe" party is a widely understood term and we do not help discussions by radically altering the meaning. A third party is not fringe. The Rhino party is Fringe the BQ and Greens are not -- even if the Greens are very weak and neither is an official party in the House. I do not forsee any time when conservatives (by whatever name they have at the time) would not have party status.