Canadian federal election 2019 part 3

Left Turn wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

Analysis: Could Scheer Lose His Own Seat to the NDP ?

Quote:

In 2015, Scheer won the partially urban, partially rural riding in large part due to a surge in Liberal Party votes.  Della Anaquod – a placeholder candidate – surged to over eighteen percent of the vote in the red wave that brought Liberals to a majority government.

With that wave crashing back in 2019, riding New Democrats and others on the centre-left are pressing hard to keep the vote behind the local New Democratic candidate, and deny the Tory leader his own seat in the House of Commons – a situation that would throw the already divided Conservative Party into chaos in a minority Parliament.  Higher voter turnout and a coalescence of support around the New Democratic candidate, and surging support for the People’s Party among right wing voters over the issue of Quebec equalization, could lead to the Tory leader losing in his own seat.

Oh, that would taste SO sweet! 

It would be sweet, but I think that's wishful thinking.

It may be wishful thinking, but two weeks ago no reputable news outlet would have dared publish it. That's how much NDP fortunes have improved since the English language leaders debate.

There hasn't been a single poll of Saskatchewan. All of the national ones have such small samples they're useless.

Left Turn wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

Analysis: Could Scheer Lose His Own Seat to the NDP ?

Quote:

In 2015, Scheer won the partially urban, partially rural riding in large part due to a surge in Liberal Party votes.  Della Anaquod – a placeholder candidate – surged to over eighteen percent of the vote in the red wave that brought Liberals to a majority government.

With that wave crashing back in 2019, riding New Democrats and others on the centre-left are pressing hard to keep the vote behind the local New Democratic candidate, and deny the Tory leader his own seat in the House of Commons – a situation that would throw the already divided Conservative Party into chaos in a minority Parliament.  Higher voter turnout and a coalescence of support around the New Democratic candidate, and surging support for the People’s Party among right wing voters over the issue of Quebec equalization, could lead to the Tory leader losing in his own seat.

Oh, that would taste SO sweet! 

It would be sweet, but I think that's wishful thinking.

It may be wishful thinking, but two weeks ago no reputable news outlet would have dared publish it. That's how much NDP fortunes have improved since the English language leaders debate.

There hasn't been a single poll of Saskatchewan. All of the national ones have such small samples they're useless.

There doesn't need to be any Sakatchewan specific polling for my point to stand. Which is that based on the NDP's improvement in the national polling, this article has gone from something that no reputable news agency would publish to something that one news outlet did publish. And that says something about the NDP's momentum in the last week of the campaign that people are willing to contemplate the previously unthinkable.

My point was more along the lines of why hasn't there been a poll of Saskatchewan?

bekayne wrote:

My point was more along the lines of why hasn't there been a poll of Saskatchewan?

Because the Central Canadian news media that controls the media across the country doesn't even know how to spell it so they don't want to embarrass their staff in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.

Conan O’Brien has tweeted:

It's smart of Trudeau to hold the election before Halloween, I mean why even tempt yourself?

Andrew Scheer is a former Speaker of the House of Commons. He knows how the parliamentary system works, understands the importance of safeguarding the public's faith in Canada's institutions.

Politicians will always make political arguments and make political decisions. If an incumbent prime minister's party finishes in second place, what that PM does next is ultimately a political decision.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-trudeau-minority-government-2019-election-1.5324496?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

So... how many seats do the NDP hold onto in Quebec?

ctrl190 wrote:

So... how many seats do the NDP hold onto in Quebec?

Boulerice and Brosseau at least.  Maybe Dusseault in Sherbrooke.  Caron possible, but not looking likely.

Why doesn't Butts put his name on the column as it's obviously more Liberal talking points?

They are coming out fast and furious now.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/jagmeet-singh-ndp-coalition_ca_5da9f858e4b0422422c461d7

I so hope Nima Machouf (yes, of the Machouf -Khadir clan) can retain Laurier-Ste-Marie against ce faux-cul ami d'oléoducs verts. I've already cast my ballot for Boulerice in advance poll.

Dp 

Misfit wrote:

lagatta4 wrote:

I so hope Nima Machouf (yes, of the Machouf -Khadir clan) can retain Laurier-Ste-Marie against ce faux-cul ami d'oléoducs verts. I've already cast my ballot for Boulerice in advance poll.

On 338Canada.com it shows a close three way race.

Mainstreet has a riding poll tomorrrow.

Here is shot from Victoria's evening rally.

I have cut and pasted this article from Facebook. I think it is a very insightful opinion and am sharing it.

Patty Lane

I'm a climate activist. Here is how I am voting and why.

How should I vote to promote a Green New Deal? Green? Or NDP?

I am a Sierra Club BC Board member. I have worked with, and respect, Elizabeth May. I am fond of David Merner. I admire Laurel Collins for her climate leadership.

For over a decade, I have been concerned about climate disruption. I brought the conversation to house parties, schools and my church.

I co-founded Leadnow and campaigned for Pro Rep, both for the express purpose of forwarding climate justice in Canada.

The essentials of the Green and NDP climate commitments are the same:
Ending fossil fuel subsidies,
Greening the economy,
Legislating our targets to stay below 1.5 degrees.

How do we break this tie? Neither party is tested in power. There is a long history of great things happening when the NDP is in the governing coalition- think Medicare, CPP. But not these same people. How can I trust that they will deliver?

Let’s look past our fascination with charismatic individuals and ask “How will they hold themselves and their MP’s accountable in the face of high pressure from industry and special interest groups?”

Extinction Rebellion calls on governments to tell the truth. It is axiomatic that truth fuels democracy. But the Greens propose baking in secrecy by pushing for an All Party Cabinet. By contrast the NDP’s proposed Climate Accountability Office will provide institutionalized truth telling. In public. Remember the role “truth teller” Public Budget Officer Kevin Page played in helping to bring down Harper?

The Green Party is a coalition of folks from all parties who cannot bring themselves to vote NDP held together by committed environmentalists. To them this proposal makes sense. But the All Party Cabinet concept is a triumph of hope over experience. Even if you trust the Greens and the NDP to remain principled, and I do, Conservatives and Liberals have proved over and over again that they fall prey to industry lobbying. Can we trust that we can all be nice to each other in this sandbox? I don’t think so. What is needed is fearless decision making. Clouding the discussion with cabinet secrecy amidst industry influenced MP’s will weaken the positions taken. Telling the public the truth will strengthen the hand of those who will play hard ball for climate justice.

MPs can pass the right laws but we must still contend with the Harper controlled, unelected Senate. It has recently developed a nasty habit of turning down government approved legislation such as the NDP bill to implement UNDRIP. The NDP will push to abolish the Senate.The Greens have no such proposal.

So what about the “justice” part of climate justice? Gaining sustained public support to meet our climate commitments means showing people that life can be better in a low carbon economy.

The NDP wins hands down. Retrofitting every single building in Canada at no cost to the owner and building 500,000 affordable carbon efficient homes will create hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs and keep our young people close to home. Most Canadians are worried about climate. But when you can’t quite make rent, or you have a toothache you can’t afford to treat, or your choice is to eat or take your medicine, affordability rises to the top of your concerns. Politics is the art of the possible.

The NDP will make medicines free. It will make dental care free for people with incomes below $70,000. It will put up to $5000 a year into the pockets of renters who spend more than ⅓ of their income on rent. It will support cities like mine to make transit free. It will give family caregivers $1000 a year to make their lives a bit easier. It will accelerate $10 a day daycare. It will eliminate interest on student loans and push for free college tuition. The NDP commitment to “Leave no one Behind” means framing the conversation so people facing affordability issues know they will be remembered in the climate conversation.

And stop messing about with pro rep. Just get it done. MMP for the next election. Pro rep jurisdictions have much better policies on climate, environment and social safety nets. The mash up of the Green coalition is reflected in the proposal of a Citizens Assembly. Do we honestly think the folks who disinformed us in BC about pro rep won’t figure out a way to corrupt that process?

There is one other and for me very fundamental reason I am supporting Laurel. Greens say they will work with Scheer if he makes the right climate promises. Do we forget Christy Clark’s adoption of the NDP platform in her bid to take power? Do we believe Scheer for a second? How can we doubt but that he will cut health care and transit and education and add more racism and division to our already divided country?

Back to climate for a moment. In fact the platforms are not equal. The Greens want to build bitumen refineries in Alberta. The Greens will make the carbon tax revenue neutral with an equal refund to everyone. This is the same as charging everyone the same MSP premium and is a straight give away to the rich. The Greens All Party Cabinet will give power to Conservatives and Liberals and through them oil and gas industry lobbies who rest assured will be ruthless. Allowing Conservatives to rise through the Green coalition or an All Party Cabinet is misguided. Its naive. And it is playing with fire.

Yes climate justice is the issue for me. That is why I am voting for Laurel Collins in VIctoria.

VI has mostly been an NDP Conservative/Reform battle for decades with the odd Liberal elected in the Southern part of the Island based on personal merit.  The Greens are having problems holding their vote in my riding of Courtenay Alberni which is good because the seats from the Malahat north are all potential Conservative wins with the wrong three way splits.

The most interesting seat for me will be Naniamo. If the NDP retake it from the Greens that will be great. Paul Manley is a nice guy but his main claim to fame is pissing off the stupid NDP Ottawa cabal when he questioned why they were not speaking out about his parents illegal arrest by the IDF in international waters. On the other hand the NDP is running Bob Chamberlain whose website describes his accomplishments.

"a proven leader and a dedicated champion for Vancouver Island and our beautiful coast. As vice president of the Union of BC Indian Chiefs, Bob has been instrumental in the fight to protect our coast from oil spills, to save and strengthen our wild salmon, and to generate jobs by developing sustainable energy."

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/montrealgazette.com/opinion/editorials/our-endorsement-best-choice-for-canada-is-andrew-scheer/amp

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2019-where-the-leaders-are-day-40-1.5328058

All four national leaders are in B.C. on the last day of the campaign, indicating perhaps the closeness of the race there.

May predictably is in southern Van Island.

the other three are in Vancouver andSurrey, all Liberal ridings.

Both Scheer and Trudeau are in West Van Sea to Sky etc, a riding I would have thought was safe for the Liberals.

If this schedule means anything it would seem that the Liberals are on the defensive in the Lower Mainland. 

NorthReport wrote:

Hurricane Hazel blows off Trudeau

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/torontosun.com/news/local-news/warmington-hurricane-hazel-blows-off-trudeau/amp

Oh poor Hazel. People are picking on her Doug Ford and Jason Kenny! Boo hoo!

She is known as a strong Liberal yet these are her values.

There will be no coalition if Trudeau wins. Trudeau will do what Harper did. Dare the others to defeat him. That's fine. The benefit is that Singh will have a bigger voice in parliament. He will go after Trudeau on pharmacare and a wealth tax. The goal is to be ready to take power in 2023 or 2027 to herald what will need to be a rapid transition to green energy while reversing the growing inequality gap. 

This election is showing that the people are sick of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. We know it will only get worse. No matter which way TM goes it will cause massive anger and resentment. If it gets approved it could lead to serious violence. It is a time bomb that will explode in this term. 

I thought I would prefer a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power but now I think a Conservative minority might be just the thing. Trudeau would be forced to choose between working with Singh, supporting the Conservatives, or forcing another election. 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

There will be no coalition if Trudeau wins. Trudeau will do what Harper did. Dare the others to defeat him. That's fine. The benefit is that Singh will have a bigger voice in parliament. He will go after Trudeau on pharmacare and a wealth tax. The goal is to be ready to take power in 2023 or 2027 to herald what will need to be a rapid transition to green energy while reversing the growing inequality gap. 

This election is showing that the people are sick of both the Conservatives and the Liberals. We know it will only get worse. No matter which way TM goes it will cause massive anger and resentment. If it gets approved it could lead to serious violence. It is a time bomb that will explode in this term. 

I thought I would prefer a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power but now I think a Conservative minority might be just the thing. Trudeau would be forced to choose between working with Singh, supporting the Conservatives, or forcing another election. 

A Conservative government allows the Liberals to pretend to be progressive. Only when they get to power do they show their spots. I think that a minority Conservative government is as dangerous to the NDP as it is to Canada. A minority Conservative government will be pulled down when the polls favour the Liberals over the NDP. It will enable lies from the Liberals. It will put the NDP in a terrible position.

I think a minority Liberal government held in power by the NDP allows ongoing influence for the NDP and a government the NDP may not have to pull down at every opportunity. Liberals may work with the NDP to moderate their policies so the NDP does not ahve to bring them done.

To Canada, a minority CPC government could gut this country's social supports with a number of compliant Conservative premiers. The Liberals could sit on their hands - perhaps due to a leadership race or bad polls.

Do not think a Conservative minority could be a good thing.

A Liberal minority COULD be a disaster. A conservative minority WOULD be.

If Trudeau lets Scheer take power rather than working in a coalition with Singh he can no longer claim the progressive title. Will he vote to cancel his own carbon tax?

Unlike in the past people know that a coalition is possible, as it happened in BC, and Scheer made that even more likely with his accusations. 

If Trudeau supports Scheer's regressive legislation he will pay for it in 2023 to the benefit of the NDP.

Pondering wrote:

If Trudeau lets Scheer take power rather than working in a coalition with Singh he can no longer claim the progressive title. Will he vote to cancel his own carbon tax?

Unlike in the past people know that a coalition is possible, as it happened in BC, and Scheer made that even more likely with his accusations. 

If Trudeau supports Scheer's regressive legislation he will pay for it in 2023 to the benefit of the NDP.

According to Andrew Leach it can be canceled without a vote.

"Trudeau might prefer to be in opposition than to choose between governing with the BQ, ending his carbon tax and a pipeline."

This is a very rational assessment and isn't a bad medium-term play by the Liberals to screw the NDP and Bloc in a not-too-far-off election.

The Liberals do not necessarily have to support or prop up Scheer to have a short-term Conservative minority government that runs to their strategic advantage.

"We're better off in opposition" is what politicians tell themselves the morning after they lose. I've yet to meet one who believes it during a campaign.

cco wrote:

"We're better off in opposition" is what politicians tell themselves the morning after they lose. I've yet to meet one who believes it during a campaign.

But in some cases, it can be true if the potential is there for a majority in the immediate or short-term.

Do you think Trudeau senior would have been better off besting Joe Clark with a minority?

The Liberals enabled Harper for years under Ignatieff. That obviously did not have long-term ramafications for them. Harper only lasted one full majority term.

If the Liberals end up with fewer seats than the Conservatives, it's in their best interests to allow Scheer to do his bidding and use any or all of Scheers actions as the proof of why electing Greens/Blocs/NDPs is so scary in the election that will follow in eight to 18 months.

There are also a lot of Green signs, and I believe May was there today as well