2019 polls 3

Music to my eyes!

New poll shows NDP ‘surge’ and major bump in approval for Jagmeet Singh

By Alex BallingallOttawa Bureau

Thu., Oct. 17, 2019timer3 min. read

The New Democratic Party and its leader Jagmeet Singh are making big gains in popular support and favourability in the final days of the campaign, a new poll suggests.

The latest telephone survey from Forum Research shows a significant boost in voting intentions for the NDP from a similar poll the firm conducted nine days earlier — a jump from 12 per cent to 20 per cent among decided voters.

At the same time, support for the Conservatives dropped from 35 per cent to 29 per cent, placing Andrew Scheer’s party in a virtual tie with the Liberals, who rose from 28 per cent to 30 per cent support in the latest poll.

The Green Party, meanwhile, was the choice of 8 per cent of the poll’s respondents, down from 12 per cent the last time Forum was in the field on Oct. 8.

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said the numbers show the NDP is enjoying a late campaign “surge” as its popularity appears to be rising significantly from the early days of the federal election campaign.

“The other thing to look at are Singh’s approval ratings. They’ve just gone through the roof,” Bozinoff told the Star on Thursday.

“No one knew him like three weeks ago, right? And he’s handled himself so well in the media, just in terms of connecting with people and staying on top of things … and now he’s got a huge approval rating.”

Fifty-two per cent of respondents to this week’s poll said they approve of the job Singh is doing as NDP leader, up from 35 per cent in a similar survey on Oct. 2. That compares with 46 per cent approval for Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, 39 per cent for the Liberal’s Justin Trudeau, and 27 per cent for Scheer.

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The Forum results also show Singh with the widest “net approval rating” — the difference in percentage points between those who approve and disapprove of his job performance — which sits at +25 in the most recent survey. That, too, is a major jump from Oct. 2, when his net approval rating was just +1.

Following Singh, May had an approval rating of +17, while Trudeau and Scheer were in negative territory, with more respondents disapproving than approving of their job performances. Trudeau’s rating in the latest poll was -14, while Scheer came in with -20.

When asked who would make the best prime minister, Trudeau was the top choice with 28 per cent of respondents choosing the Liberal leader. But, again, Forum points to a significant increase in this category for Singh, who was tied with the Conservative leader as the choice of best prime minister for 24 per cent of respondents. Singh was the choice of 13 per cent in the similar poll on Oct. 2.

May, meanwhile, was the best prime minister for 8 per cent of respondents, while 16 per cent said they don’t know.

The telephone survey of 1,028 randomly selected Canadian adults was conducted Thursday afternoon and evening. Forum says its results are considered accurate within a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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If the Forum numbers are reflected in Monday’s election results, Bozinoff said it is possible that the NDP could play kingmaker in a minority parliament. Since Singh has already ruled out supporting the Conservatives, that could ensure the Liberals form the next government even if they don’t win the most seats in the House of Commons.

But since the Conservative vote appears concentrated in the Prairies, Bozinoff said the Forum results would translate to put the Liberals on top.

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“The trends are clear. If the two main parties remain neck and neck, the lopsided vote in Alberta means the Liberal vote is more efficient and the Liberals will come out with more seats,” he said.

Elections Canada estimates 4.7 million people cast their ballots over four days of advance polling this month. The campaign is set to end Monday, when Canadians get their final chance to vote across 338 federal ridings.

Alex Ballingall is an Ottawa-based reporter covering national politics. Follow him on Twitter: @aballinga

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/10/17/new-poll-shows-ndp-surge-and-major-bump-in-approval-for-jagmeet-singh.html

That Forum poll out tonite has the NDP closing the gap with the Liberals showing the NDP within 10% of the Liberals

If the NDP moves up only 5% to 25% and the Liberals only drop 5% to 25% what would the seat counts look like then?

A lot can happen in 5 days.

Nanos this morning.  

CON 31.6% (-0.9%) / Lib 31.5% (flat) /NDP 19.1% (+0.1%) / GRN 9.5% (+0.3%) / BQ 6.2% (+0.2%) / PPC 1.8% (+0.2%)

https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos

Liberal incumbents Mark Holland and Karina Gould look poised to reclaim their seats in Ajax and Burlington Ont., respectively, new polls from Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggests.

A third poll shows that Simon Marchand for the Bloc Québécois will likely take the Quebec riding of Hochelaga.

The NDP averages 18.9% support for the 10 most recent polls, but the trend is rising for the Jagmeet Singh-led NDP, as the NDP now averages 19.5% support, a gain of  0.6% support for the 5 most recent polls.

And remember in 2015, the NDP won 44 seats with 19.71% support. With 4 days left in the campaign, and the wind in its sails momentum, the NDP stands a reasonable chance of doing much better than 2015. 

josh wrote:

Insights West for BC:

27% CON (-2 since Sept. 23) 23% NDP (+9) 20% LIB (+1) 11% GRN (-3) 2% OTH (-1) 10% UND (-5) 7% no response/won't vote (+3)

https://insightswest.com/news/bc-voters-poll-10-18-2019-federal-vote/

I think the NDP will finish 1st in pop vote in BC

New EKOS:

Con 32.5 (+0.7) / Lib 31.0 (-0.2) / NDP 17.6 (-0.8) / Green  7.9 (+1.1) / BQ  5.5 (-0.9) / PPC  3.6 (+0.2)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_18_2019.pdf

Any theories as to why there'd be a slight NDP drop in EKOS?  

Also, how close is it to the pre-election cut-off on releasing poll results?  Or is that still in place, since it's the kind of thing Harper would have been likely to get rid of?

Ken Burch wrote:

Any theories as to why there'd be a slight NDP drop in EKOS?  

Also, how close is it to the pre-election cut-off on releasing poll results?  Or is that still in place, since it's the kind of thing Harper would have been likely to get rid of?

I think it is a Sunday night cutoff, like the advertising.  Kouvalis is trying for a 5,000 sample by then, of which he released the first 3,000 piece today and will drop a further 1500 on each of Saturday and Sunday.

So what is the polling like in Quebec - any changes taking place there?

Tks  kn

C- 27%, Down 2%

N - 23%, Up 9%

L- 20%, Up 1%

G - 11%, Down 3%

Other - 2%, Down 1%

NDP sees surge of support from B.C. voters in election's final days, poll finds

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/jagmeet-singh-ndp-british-columbia-poll-1.5326826

Nanos for this morning.  Starting to crystallize into something like the IRG polls yesterday.

LIB 32.6% (+1.1%) / CON 30.3% (-1.3%) / NDP 18.4% (-0.5%) / GRN 9.3% (-0.2%) / BQ 7.1% (+0.9%) / PPC 1.9% (+0.1%)

https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos

KarlL wrote:

And finally...an Innovative Research Group poll from Greg Lyle.  A set of them actually. 

The regional clusters are the most interesting part.  Greg may be right, he may be wrong but this is a different level of quality from the bucket shops like Angus Reid or DART.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Federal-Election-Seat-Cluster-2019-10-18.pdf

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Federal-Election-Political-Landscape-Tracking-2019-10-18.pdf

Interesting.

New Mainstreet:

Lib 32.8 (+0.7) / Con 31.9 (-) / NDP 18.3 (-0.5) / BQ  7.2 (-0.4) / GPC  5.5 (-0.3) / PPC  3.3 (+0.3)

 https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/19/federal-race-still-tied-two-days-out-from-election-suggests-new-mainstreet-polling-numbers/

NDP 1st in BC 29%

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-20191019-Quebec-BC-Trend-Lines.pdf

I find the polling usually favors the Conservatives. As long as it is a very weak minority I wouldn't mind Trudeau being put in the position of accepting Scheer or teaming up with Singh to overthrow him. 

With the campaign now its final stages, the majority hopes of both the Conservatives and the Liberals have been put in doubt by the surprise surges in popularity for the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois.

Trudeau declined Friday to muse on the reasons for the stronger-than-expected showings of those two parties, saying only that “you can’t take any votes for granted.

“I think, in a campaign, Canadians look at all sorts of different paths forward, look at different ways of making a choice,” he said.

As he has done all week, Trudeau tried to rally progressive voters to the Liberal side with dire warnings about the perils of the Conservative agenda.

“A vote for the Bloc Quebecois or the NDP or the Green Party would not stop Andrew Scheer, won’t stop a Conservative government,” he said.

“To stop a Conservative government, you need to elect a Liberal"

So arrogant. He should be saying, and should have been saying for sometime, that he accepts Canadians are disappointed with his performance and want more than he has been delivering on climate change and income inequality. I guess he can't because he is still intent on his neoliberal agenda. 

Legalizing cannabis was his big "I'm progressive" flag proving he is on the left but that was only good for one election. He isn't even trying to offer Canadians something for their vote. He is trying to scare them into voting for him. 

Nanos this morning has the Conservatives with a slight lead again and the NDP getting back up close to 19%.

CON 31.5% (+1.2%) / LIB 31.0% (-1.6%) / NDP 18.8% (+0.4%) / GRN 9.5% (+0.2%) / BQ 7.0% (-0.1%) / PPC 1.8% (-0.1%)

https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos

For all those still up I have just received my latest numbers from today . Adding to the most recent I can say with confidence that the LPC are going to win Elxn 43. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority and it is looking like the former.

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1185768465623334913

Pondering wrote:

I find the polling usually favors the Conservatives. As long as it is a very weak minority I wouldn't mind Trudeau being put in the position of accepting Scheer or teaming up with Singh to overthrow him.

The polling for the last week of the 2015 election was pretty much on for the Conservatives. The polls seem to have underestimated the Liberals and overestimated the NDP and Greens. The latter have always polled better than their actual vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election

And it's Trudeau who has to be "overthrown" because he's already PM. He has the right to face Parliament after the election and seek a vote of confidence.

brookmere wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I find the polling usually favors the Conservatives. As long as it is a very weak minority I wouldn't mind Trudeau being put in the position of accepting Scheer or teaming up with Singh to overthrow him.

The polls seem to have underestimated the Liberals and overestimated the NDP and Greens.

I am hopeful the NDP vote has been underestimated but we shall see.

brookmere wrote:

josh wrote:

For all those still up I have just received my latest numbers from today . Adding to the most recent I can say with confidence that the LPC are going to win Elxn 43. The only question is whether it will be a majority or minority and it is looking like the former.

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1185768465623334913

Either Graves is off his rocker or he's mixed up "latter" and "former". I just don't see a Liberal majority, the main reason being BQ strength.

Agree.  Especially since his prior poll had the Cons in the lead.  I think he just mixed them up.

Abacus:

LPC 34

CPC 32

NDP 16

Bloc 8

GPC 8

PPC 2

https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

josh wrote:

Abacus:

LPC 34

CPC 32

NDP 16

Bloc 8

GPC 8

PPC 2

https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

 

There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I think the last few days of Liberal scaremongering would push the NDP vote down a bit, no?

There is a hopeful Liberal view. Sorry wrong!!