Why did "The Singh surge" turn out to be...nothing at all?

To steer this back on topic. What happened? Turnout.

Turnout is related to loss of confidence stemming from the coalition nonsense to the Brampton Centre thing.
He should have kept his mouth shut on the first and responded harshly on the latter.

:shrug:
He ran a good campaign..

Punish them for what? There's a lot of shared respect on both sides for stuff I don't even want to talk about here. :)
Let's put it like this, Jats & Afghans would be fighting each other & amongst themselves no matter the religion.
Our disagreement with them is elementary.
Also, in Islam all Muslims are one nation there is no X Muslim.
The Ulema is one||

Given the disparity between the positive polling and media attention Singh received this election, and his ultimate result, I am wondering if there may have been a bit of a "Bradley effect” here?

josh wrote:

bekayne wrote:

To steer this back on topic. What happened? Turnout.

Meaning NDP voters didn't tour out?  Other party voters turned out higher than expected? 

Overall turnout dropped about 2 percent. I would figure that to be bad for the NDP (and the Liberals) as their vote base(s) skew younger and presumably less likely to vote. But we will have to see whether there are some more thorough studies done. You are right that Abacus seems to have got the final vote percentage mostly right, but other polls did not. Most poll aggregators had the NDP closer to 20 percent? Did Abacus know something the rest didn’t or is it more likely that they just got lucky?

jatt_1947 wrote:

Punish them for what? There's a lot of shared respect on both sides for stuff I don't even want to talk about here. :)
Let's put it like this, Jats & Afghans would be fighting each other & amongst themselves no matter the religion.
Our disagreement with them is elementary.
Also, in Islam all Muslims are one nation there is no X Muslim.
The Ulema is one||

Gods are a figment of the imagination. Canada and India are two separate countries. Singh is Canadian. I don't much care what is going on in India except in the general sense of wanting people to be free and safe. 

josh wrote:

Where the part fell short of expectations the most was in Ontario.  They failed to pick up any seats in Toronto and lost a couple in SW Ontario.  

I was surprised the Libs picked up Windsor-Tecumseh.

Re Windsor Tecumseh, they ran a popular councillor there - Hardcastle is on the weak end of NDP caucus so it's not a shock. The Liberals were expecting to win both Windsor seats.

Re: the surge, is it possible there was a Singh surge - but from 11 to 15?

Pondering, so is like literally reality, language and pretty much everything. 

I almost want a female PM more than a Sikh one so Ashton would be cool.. 

josh wrote:

bekayne wrote:

To steer this back on topic. What happened? Turnout.

Meaning NDP voters didn't tour out?  Other party voters turned out higher than expected?

Abacus nailed the NDP number of 16.  The others averaged 18.  Where the part fell short of expectations the most was in Ontario.  They failed to pick up any seats in Toronto and lost a couple in SW Ontario.  

NDP support in all the polls was skewed towards younger voters, who didn't turn up in numbers like the older voters.

jatt_1947 wrote:

Pondering, so is like literally reality, language and pretty much everything. 

I almost want a female PM more than a Sikh one so Ashton would be cool.. 

Isn't that sorta bordering on identity politics?  Why do you almost want a female PM? 

Paladin1 wrote:

jatt_1947 wrote:

Pondering, so is like literally reality, language and pretty much everything. 

I almost want a female PM more than a Sikh one so Ashton would be cool.. 

 

Isn't that sorta bordering on identity politics?  Why do you almost want a female PM? 

I suspect mocking on the part of Jatt. Really ups the political discourse. 

Every elected PM of Canada has been a white middle-aged or older white man. That is identity politics. 

While there are Conservative women and minorities they are still more likely to be progressive. I'm sure we could find yet another middle-aged or older white guy but I would prefer to see a woman leading the party. 

White men are so worried about being treated unfairly. 

I had my doubts about Jagmeet from the beginning but he substantially allayed them during the campaign.

Ever since Mulcair was ditched we were going to tank in Quebec. Only Mulcair could have held it or improved our position there.

We had our backs against the wall in early Sept. Polls had the NDP nand the Greens about even at 12% with the Greens growing. If we had been supplanted by the Greens , even by 7 seats to 5, which was a real prospect, the NDP would have slid into 5th place and irrelevance.

Jagmeet saved us from that and we should acknowledge that. 

The party is now in a position to build and expand as the progressive alternative. A few weeks ago the Greens looked like filling that role.

The Singh NDP's overall results were fairly poor, except in British Columbia.  So Ken is right about that.

But Nicky is correct about the Greens -- Elizabeth May blew this election.  She had enormous momentum earlier in the year with the Paul Manly win and the provincial success in Atlantic Canada, and in the end the Greens only re-elected May & Manly and one extra new seat in Fredericton.  So although the Greens are beginning to overtake the NDP in the Atlantic region as an alternative, the NDP prevented the Greens from emerging as an alternative in the rest of the country.

R.E.Wood wrote:

Singh says he's 'not at all' worried about a leadership challenge after NDP's election disappointment

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-day-after-leadership-1.5330592

He should have acknowledged the losses. 

kropotkin1951 wrote:

If the NDP changes its leader before the next election it will lose half its seats on Vancouver Island. The people in my riding turned out at almost 72% and the combined NDP Green vote was 55%. Across the great divide the people of Alberta gave Conservatives 60% to 70% majority in ridings on the basis that they wanted a government to stick it to the Coast. Fuck Canada

yup. and would lose a few more off the Island too.

how is he supposed to respond to losing seats to the Bloc? he can't. 

there is also 1 new MP and 1 reclaimed seat. 

if Ontarians want to blame Jagmeet for their voting Liberal they can go right a head. but imv it's bs. 

Michael Moriarity wrote:

nicky wrote:

We had our backs against the wall in early Sept. Polls had the NDP nand the Greens about even at 12% with the Greens growing. If we had been supplanted by the Greens , even by 7 seats to 5, which was a real prospect, the NDP would have slid into 5th place and irrelevance.

Jagmeet saved us from that and we should acknowledge that. 

The party is now in a position to build and expand as the progressive alternative. A few weeks ago the Greens looked like filling that role.

I agree. He deserves a shot at another election if he wants it. After all, this government probably won't last the maximum 4 years anyway.

He inherited a party that was imploding after the 2011 anomaly and the 2015 disastrous showing by Mulcair. He extinguished the flames and so he needs to get into the House and show Canadians that he is a leader they should believe in. No NDP leader has made a significant breakthrough in the Southern Ontario ridings were Canadian governments are created. Then inevitably some insider idiot in Ottawa or Toronto will claim that the reason the NDP lost was because they needed to be more liberal. I elect an NDP MP against the tide and Southern Ontario elects Liberals, after watching this recurring pattern for decades I feel that voters in Ontario are the root cause of Canada's right wing neo-con governments not those evil Albertans. Its all about seat count and they deliver back and forth governments of Liberal/Tory same old imperialism because that is what what they want.

What is the point of electing leftist NDP MP's to go back to Ottawa to be told to tone it down by central campaign losers from Upper Canada? Singh brought out crowds on Vancouver Island and his personal performance helped hold our vote. No other NDP leader that ran against him would have performed as well.

Yeah, the first time the NDP is in a position to hold the balance of power since the 1970s and they should dump their leader. That would be super smart.

On the question of leadership, none of the party leaders is going to step down during a minority government and leave their party unprepared, so Singh isn't going anywhere. Every one of these leaders (with the possible exception of Bernier) will lead their parties into the next election.

On Singh's performance as leader, showing up is a basic thing. Singh did not do that prior to this campaign. He needs to start doing that now. Come to provincial conventions and start showing up in by-elections, even if it is in a seat where NDP support is normally in the single digits. That's how you connect with people. It's great that he was able to attract crowds of people in BC. That needs to be replicated nationally, in areas that the NDP had written off during the last 4 yeras. Despite the crowds in BC, it was one of the places where the NDP lost seats. The NDP only increased its seat coung in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nunavut, and Manitoba, but those increases were due entirely to the efforts of local activists, with Singh and the national party having next to no influence.

My concern about Singh not showing up is something he can very easily change. There are others about his judgement that I find more troubling. He mishandled the Erin Weir investigation to the point that people thought Weir was kicked out for minor social protocl breaches that everyone is guilty of at some point. At the same time, the candidate in Brampton was allowed to stay in spite of blatantly misogynistic comments? What is up with that? How do we know that he would never make a serious misjudgement like that again? Say what you will about Niki Ashton, but I highly doubt that she would have tolerated that kind of crap from anyone.

So in short, great campaign that brought the NDP back to life, but Singh really needs to step up his game going forward.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Michael Moriarity wrote:

nicky wrote:

We had our backs against the wall in early Sept. Polls had the NDP nand the Greens about even at 12% with the Greens growing. If we had been supplanted by the Greens , even by 7 seats to 5, which was a real prospect, the NDP would have slid into 5th place and irrelevance.

Jagmeet saved us from that and we should acknowledge that. 

The party is now in a position to build and expand as the progressive alternative. A few weeks ago the Greens looked like filling that role.

I agree. He deserves a shot at another election if he wants it. After all, this government probably won't last the maximum 4 years anyway.

He inherited a party that was imploding after the 2011 anomaly and the 2015 disastrous showing by Mulcair. He extinguished the flames and so he needs to get into the House and show Canadians that he is a leader they should believe in. No NDP leader has made a significant breakthrough in the Southern Ontario ridings were Canadian governments are created. Then inevitably some insider idiot in Ottawa or Toronto will claim that the reason the NDP lost was because they needed to be more liberal. I elect an NDP MP against the tide and Southern Ontario elects Liberals, after watching this recurring pattern for decades I feel that voters in Ontario are the root cause of Canada's right wing neo-con governments not those evil Albertans. Its all about seat count and they deliver back and forth governments of Liberal/Tory same old imperialism because that is what what they want.

What is the point of electing leftist NDP MP's to go back to Ottawa to be told to tone it down by central campaign losers from Upper Canada? Singh brought out crowds on Vancouver Island and his personal performance helped hold our vote. No other NDP leader that ran against him would have performed as well.

I think your hatred for central Canada is really damaging what otherwise could be an interesting analysis.

Too often you crow about people in the East not understanding the West but the hypocrisy shows through all that sneering as you are clueless about what is going on in Ontario now.

The non-conservatives in this province are traumatized by what is happened and what is coming. Helathcare and education is under a constant attack along with other key areas. Social assistance is coming under attack shortly as the province has declared this intention.

Voters in Ontario are paranoid about vote splitting in Ontario. Sure judgement can be off as people do not understand strategicvoting and are subject to tremendous amounts of propaganda - but this was a huge factor.

The province in under threat of dismantlement by Conservataives. We do not have an NDP government like you in BC. We have a Conservative that we could see was toning back its attack on people until after the federal election. The guiding motivation of much of Ontario non-conservatives was to do anything to stop the Conservatives. We can debate the rationality of voters saying they cannot vote NDP for fear of Conservatives.

Yes, you can blame Ontario for electing a right wing government but this was not a landslide in votes - just seats. It happened in an election where the governing party, plagued with scandal, was nearly wiped out and the NDP came remarkably close from third place.

Last night the NDP got 11 of 42 BC seats, three less than in 2015  --- and 6 in Ontario, two less than 2015. Unfortunate but part of a national story. In Ontario the NDP went up 0.2% to 16.8 and in BC the vote went down 1.5% to 24.4 while the Conservatives dropped a couple points and the Liberals dropped three points.

josh wrote:

Jagmeet saved us from that and we should acknowledge that. 

He put the party in that position.  That's like giving an arsonist credit for putting out the fire after half the house burned down.

It is fantasy to suggest taht the NDP's house was not on fire when he took it over - even if it had not burned completely before he got the job.

Yes, there are good reasons to criticize but he is not the "arsonist" in that the fire was lit before he got there.