Looking like a strong Liberal minority (thank god!). Time to ask. How did PM Trudeau manage this?

Limited attention spans. Remember any of the scandals that were supposed to be fatal to Harper's government? In-and-out, the Senate...for lots of people, if it happened more than a month ago, it's downgraded to "Didn't something happen with that guy once?".

If anybody has "managed" anything-and who knows if there will be some bizarre late-campaign opinion trend the polls aren't picking up as there was in 2011 when Harper got a majority virtually no one thought he'd get-it's because Andrew Scheer has run a singularly ineffective campaign for his party.    At this point, Scheer is the coming across as the most ineffective Conservative leader since Kim Campbell-his party is only holding is basic vote share at the moment because Bernier has been even more ineffective at creating an alternative to the Cons' right.

But remember, a lot can shift at the end.    At this stage in a campaign, there are any number of events which could cause a late swing to the Cons OR to the NDP.  It's a disaster for Scheer that that Cons are in FOURTH place in Quebec, though-and if right-wingers in Quebec realize that that's the case, it could cause a very late swing to the PP that might give Bernie his riding and maybe a couple more.

On the current vote breaks, Scheer would be premier of Alberta and that's pretty much it.

IMHO most of the people who voted Liberal last time got most of what they wanted, at least in comparison to what Harper did, what Ford is doing, or what Scheer would do. And they remember what happened in 2011. So they stick with the Liberals. They may be unhappy with SNC, but they are not going to punish themselves for it.

I think it has flattened out in recent days (and the last few polls seem to show that) but Jagmeet Singh had performed well.  The BC and a few surprise Saskatchewan results could take the NDP into the upper 40s but I suspect it will be somewhere between 40 and 45 seats. 

The absence of campaign funds was a limiter.  If Jagmeet could have deployed a full-scale advertising campaign in the wake of his superior performance in the English debate and solid performance in the French debate then I think it might have been different, as in more seats for the NDP but also more for the Conservatives because of the splits.

NorthReport wrote:

Bingo!

cco wrote:

Limited attention spans. Remember any of the scandals that were supposed to be fatal to Harper's government? In-and-out, the Senate...for lots of people, if it happened more than a month ago, it's downgraded to "Didn't something happen with that guy once?".

Another big factor is that a sizeable portion of Canadians think of their political ideology as small-l liberal, and s0 will vote Liberal as long as they feel they can get up the next morning and go on with their lives without feeling like they've made a 'mistake' in how they voted. And because of their small-l liberal ideology, the bar for being able to vote Liberal without remorse is very low. Which results in people tending to forget Liberal scandals sooner than they would if the exact same scandal befell a party not named Liberal.

KarlL wrote:

I think it has flattened out in recent days (and the last few polls seem to show that) but Jagmeet Singh had performed well.  The BC and a few surprise Saskatchewan results could take the NDP into the upper 40s but I suspect it will be somewhere between 40 and 45 seats. 

The absence of campaign funds was a limiter.  If Jagmeet could have deployed a full-scale advertising campaign in the wake of his superior performance in the English debate and solid performance in the French debate then I think it might have been different, as in more seats for the NDP but also more for the Conservatives because of the splits

full houses in Victoria, Vancouver and Penticton. 200 people had to be turned away in Penticton last night venue could only hold 500.

there were also 100s out in Port Alberni.

Alexandra Morton endorsed Chamberlain so we will see what impact that has on Nanaimo Ladysmith.

think all current NDP seats in BC will hold. whether the Schuswap will go orange from blue is a toss up. people there are pissed at Conservatives. are there enough there though?

Nathan's seat will go to Taylor hands down with something like 96% support. 

Whether Joan can pull it off is unknown.

quizzical wrote:

think all current NDP seats in BC will hold. whether the Schuswap will go orange from blue is a toss up. people there are pissed at Conservatives. are there enough there though?

If you mean North Okanagan-Shuswap, the Cons won comfortably in 2015 and the NDP was 10,000 votes back in 3rd place.  Of the Interior NDP seats Kootenay-Columbia is iffy with only an 81 vote margin over the Cons in 2015.

The danger in pushing the Liberals left is that people then vote Liberal in subsequent elections.

NDP support is growing because the Liberals are too far right. They need to stay there and be branded with the same refusal to act seriously on climate change and inequality as the Conservatives are. This is an emergency. It doesn't matter if you die from a hail of bullets or a single bullet you are still dead, The Liberals just take a few bullets out out of the equation. 

For many years the NDP had no hope of a win federally and moved to the centre in the hopes of being able to attract more support. But times they are a changing. We have Corbyn and Sanders and even Warren. Occupy happened. Climate change and income inequality are not fringe topics anymore. 

In this election Trudeau has been exposed as a fraud. He may be getting votes but people are holding their noses to do it. I imagine there are Conservatives holding their noses to vote Scheer. 

If Trudeau supports a Conservative minority he will wear it in 2023. 

Pondering wrote:

The danger in pushing the Liberals left is that people then vote Liberal in subsequent elections.

NDP support is growing because the Liberals are too far right. They need to stay there and be branded with the same refusal to act seriously on climate change and inequality as the Conservatives are. This is an emergency. It doesn't matter if you die from a hail of bullets or a single bullet you are still dead, The Liberals just take a few bullets out out of the equation. 

For many years the NDP had no hope of a win federally and moved to the centre in the hopes of being able to attract more support. But times they are a changing. We have Corbyn and Sanders and even Warren. Occupy happened. Climate change and income inequality are not fringe topics anymore. 

In this election Trudeau has been exposed as a fraud. He may be getting votes but people are holding their noses to do it. I imagine there are Conservatives holding their noses to vote Scheer. 

If Trudeau supports a Conservative minority he will wear it in 2023. 

How can you expect the Liberals to do what other parties would prefer they do?

This is not about strategy anyway. If the LPC moves left they leave less room for NDP and more for a more extreme conservative party and a less extreme one. If they move right they cut off room for a centrist right party but leave room for NDP to grow. When they bob back and forth people say they are untrustworthy. I explained all this.

The NDP does not get to put the Liberals where they want but the more left the NDP goes the more room they leave the Liebrals to be centre left and the more right the NDP goes the more the Liberals have to push the Conservatives.

But a party does not go where it designs it want to go they go based on membership. If the CPC moves right then people on their left will find that too much and go Liberal which moves them a bit right as they are moderate Conservatives. When the CPC takes the moderate conservatives the Liberals moveleft. When the NDP takes their progressives they move right.

Not a simple decision but based on migration of supporters who make the party change.

Basically all the parties shift for room. This is in addition to having a good leader - spokesperson. The better the party leadership and communications are the more they can compete in a narrow space but they work with and for the membership so what they lose or attract changes the party.

quizzical wrote:

So but your words fo not explain Conservative NFP switch voters.

See below for educational fault lines.  There is also a significant vein of anti-Liberal and especially anti-Trudeau sentiment.  Liberal smugness certainly turns some people off and they will look for any alternative that can fight that.  Lastly, Conservatives and NDP are both in a sense "outs" and Liberals are "ins".  The remedies are very different but each has at least  surface appeal to people upset with the status quo, whether in society or with their own circumstances.  Voters aren't for the most part deeply ideological.

Frank Graves @VoiceOfFranky

Education is a major new fault line with U-ed leaning strongly LPC and non-U-ed opting CPC. In a break from the past and resembling Trump support, the CPC are doing very well with the working class. The NDP rise ahs seen them doing very well with working class as well

Ken Burch wrote:

At this point, Scheer is the coming across as the most ineffective Conservative leader since Kim Campbell

Minor quibble here. Kim Campbell wasn't so much ineffective as she was left with a steaming pile of Mulroney's shite. Her hands were tied, much like Rachel Notley's, by the myopic greed-driven stupidity that came before her. Not that I'm a Campbell fan - not by any means - just remembering that particular political moment.