2019 UK election

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josh
2019 UK election
kropotkin1951

I think it is now time to break out the popcorn and sit back and watch the mud wrestling.

Fans of Britain’s long-running comedy-drama Brexit are today overjoyed after learning that another season of the popular show has been commissioned.

Just when it looked like the UK’s telly addicts would need to find another boxset to binge-watch it has been announced that Brexit – possibly the greatest farce since Fawlty Towers and a fantasy to rival Game of Thrones – will roll on for at least one more season.

Brexit aficionado Simon Williams had been bracing himself for the show’s emotional finale.

“I’m so happy!” he said. “It looked like it would be all over this week, but there was still so much potential with these characters, so many more votes they could have on Boris’ deal – so many more machiavellian plots to fail and embarrassments to endure.

“I’ve been so worried recently what with all the rumours about the show being cancelled amid falling ratings.

https://newsthump.com/2019/10/28/tv-fans-delighted-as-brexit-renewed-for...

nicky

Cambridge was of course a strong Remain seat.Here is a constituency poll from Survation, which of course is the firm that came closest in predictin* th3 2017 election.

Meanwhile Survation have a Cambridge poll out with the LDs taking the seat from LAB

Cambridge Westminster voting intention:

LD: 39% (+10)
LAB: 30% (-22)
GRN: 12% (+10)
CON: 10% (-6)
BREX: 7% (+7)
, 16 - 17 Oct
Chgs. w/ 2017 result

Corbyn’s incoherence on Brexit May be reflected in Labour’s collapse in Cambridge.

NDPP

"Extending the franchise to actual children and non-citizens is a major constitutional change. No one has voted for this change. It has zero legitimacy. It is unprincipled Remain gerry-mandering at its most shameless."

https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/1189208162785730562

nicky

Corbyn's approval : favourable 20, unfavourable 70

very favorable 5, very unfavourable 53 

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/30/all-three-main-party-leaders-are-in-negative-ratings-territory-with-corbyns-numbers-the-worst/

why doesnt he just smell the roses, step aside and give Labour a chance to win with a different leader?

josh

Labour must avoid taking sides in the Brexit “culture war” if Jeremy Corbyn is to win the upcoming general election, one of his key advisers has warned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/labour-should-stay-neutral-in-brexit-culture-war-warns-corbyn-ally-andrew-murray

NDPP

Bit late for that...

josh

The point is that they need to emphasize other issues if they are to win.  The way they did in 2017.  They are more divided on the issue than the Conservatives and certainly the Lib Dems. 

JKR

If Labour remains neutral it risks losing both Leave and Remain voters and leaving them with ? I suspect Labour's going to have to come up with a soft-Brexit plan that pleases as many of their voters as possible but even that kind of plan may lose them voters. Understandably Labour will try to move the election debate as far away as possible from Brexit and toward areas they have an advantage in but that may be difficult to do. Unfortunately Brexit may overshadow issues like health care, higher wages, better social programs, and labour rights.

josh

Labour has a plan.  Murray's point was that they can't become mired in the debate.

JKR

Maybe Labour should couch all their Brexit policies around their socialist policies? So support Brexit where it supports socialism and support maintaining aspects of the EU where they align with a socialist outlook? Maybe they can shift Brexit talking points to their talking points?

nicky

Labour now running third in former stronghold of London

Ouch.  @YouGov scores for London (versus Oct 8/9):

Oct 14/15
Tories 31 (-)
Lib Dem 29 (+3)
Labour 28 (-4)

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Cambridge was of course a strong Remain seat.Here is a constituency poll from Survation, which of course is the firm that came closest in predictin* th3 2017 election.

Meanwhile Survation have a Cambridge poll out with the LDs taking the seat from LAB

Cambridge Westminster voting intention:

LD: 39% (+10)
LAB: 30% (-22)
GRN: 12% (+10)
CON: 10% (-6)
BREX: 7% (+7)
, 16 - 17 Oct
Chgs. w/ 2017 result

Corbyn’s incoherence on Brexit May be reflected in Labour’s collapse in Cambridge.


Corbyn isn't incoherent.  It's just that Labour can't go all-out Remain OR all-0ut Brexit without splitting the party.  And I was proven right that it wasn't going to be possible to get a second referendum before the election, that nothing Corbyn could have done or said would have swung enough votes in the house to pass a referendum.

What matters is beating the Tories, and the LD's can't do that, given that their party agrees with the Tories on every major issue other than the EU.

Ken Burch

As you know, nicky no political party can change leaders DURING an election campaign, so there's no good reason for you to keep attacking Corbyn.

Labour would do just as badly with an all-0ut Remain(and thus antisocialist and antiworker)leader.  

You've proven yourself right wing by refusing to stop attacking Labour when Labour is the only party that can beat the Tories.  And Labour can't win any future elections if it loses this election because people like you won't stop attacking it and won't stop pushing for Labour to become a party of the right, which is what replacing Corbyn with someone the PLP would approve of would mean.  In contiuing to attack Corbyn at a time when you know it isn't possible to change leaders and when you know no one who was imposed by the PLP to replace him could ever be credible with the electorate or could possibly offer a meaningful, radical message, you are working for the rich.  You are working for the people who want to destroy the NHS.  Do you not care about that?

 

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Corbyn's approval : favourable 20, unfavourable 70

very favorable 5, very unfavourable 53 

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/30/all-three-main-party-leaders-are-in-negative-ratings-territory-with-corbyns-numbers-the-worst/

why doesnt he just smell the roses, step aside and give Labour a chance to win with a different leader?

It isn't possible to change leaders after an election has been called.  And the only alternatives the PLP would accept are from the party's ring-nobody from the right wing of the party cares about the poor-you  can't care about the poor and abstain on Tory benefit cuts or on the Tory benefit sanctions policy, or if you support capitalism instead of socialism.  Why did you never call for the PLP to guarantee that there'd be a left-winger on any leadership ballot to replace Corbyn?  Why did you never call for getting rid of the pointless, anti-democratic MP nominations requirement to be placed on the leadership ballot anyway?  

It goes without saying that any of the candidates the MPs preferred to Corbyn-Kendall, Cooper or Burnham in 2015; Owen Smith the Pfizer lobbyist in 2016-would have been worse as leaders, since all of them would have been passionately antisocialist and pro-austerity.

Ken Burch

Now is the time for the endless, always unjustified, always indefensible four-year long PLP hate campaign against Jeremy Corbyn and the vast majority of the party who support his policies to come to an end.  The PLP has to accept that the majority of the party wants Labour to be socialist and that there is no case to keep fighting to impose an anti-socialist leader like the PLP-and no one else-would prefer in Corbyn's place.

What matters is beating the Tories and ending the barbaric assault on the working and kept-from working poor in the UK.  No non-left wing leader would ever fight against the assault on the poor.

josh

Survation:

Conservatives 34

Labour 26

LD 19

Brexit 12

SNP 4

Green 1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIKapBtXYAIszA8.jpg

 

Michael Moriarity

Here is a Jacobin article which argues that to win this election, Labour needs to be even more boldly socialist than in 2017.

James Meadway wrote:
Thatcherism is in long-term decline. By shifting the election terrain to issues of economic power, redistribution, and social ownership, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party can finally kill it off for good.

nicky

Ken, tomorrow is a workday so I don’t have time  to list let alone refute your myriad mendacities.

the great pity is that Labour should win this election. The Conservative government is unprincipled, incompetent and regressive. The British public is itching for a chance to defeat it.

unfotunately, the government looks like it will be re-elected because Labour is led by an utter incompetent who is unacceptable to the vast majority of Britons.

if Corbyn had any regard for the Labour Party he would recognize that he is leading it not just to defeat but electoral ignominy. 

Ken Burch

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Here is a Jacobin article which argues that to win this election, Labour needs to be even more boldly socialist than in 2017.

James Meadway wrote:
Thatcherism is in long-term decline. By shifting the election terrain to issues of economic power, redistribution, and social ownership, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party can finally kill it off for good.

That's my point.  Doing what nicky wants, and moving back to Blairism, is a recipe for irrelevance.  No one who actually supports the ideals of socialism has taken part in the unending four-year-long hate, smear, and lie campaign against Corbyn.

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Ken, tomorrow is a workday so I don’t have time  to list let alone refute your myriad mendacities.

the great pity is that Labour should win this election. The Conservative government is unprincipled, incompetent and regressive. The British public is itching for a chance to defeat it.

unfotunately, the government looks like it will be re-elected because Labour is led by an utter incompetent who is unacceptable to the vast majority of Britons.

if Corbyn had any regard for the Labour Party he would recognize that he is leading it not just to defeat but electoral ignominy. 

Nothing I've said is a mendacity-it's not lying to simply post something you happen to disagree with.  There simply isn't any way to have Corbyn stand down now that the election has been called-to my knowledge, no party in UK history has ever switched parties during an election campaign.  Why keep pushing for that when it's too late to happen and when nobody who was brought into replace Corbyn-in what would have to be an undemocratic and illegitimate process-could possibly be accepted as a credible leader by the vast majority of the party who support Corbyn's policies.  You will, at least, have to concede that it couldn't possibly be legitimate for the PLP to impose a centrist leader and have that leader fight the election on a centrist-i.e., Tory-election platform.

The LD vote will collapse as soon as Labour is given the chance, during the campaign-to point out that Jo Swinson, the LD leader, is a reactionary who voted for the Tory insistence on massive increases in tuition and fees for university and who has told women that fighting sexism is something they will have to do solely as individuals, as she is against government doing anything feminist at all.

 

nicky

Before trotting off to work, May I refute just one of Ken’s myriad Trumpisms? ( he doesn’t seem to like “mendacities”)

He claims that a new referendum was not possible. This is of course nonsense.

a new referendum came within a dozen votes in Parliament in September. This without Corbyn giving more than lukewarm support. 

Corbyn sabotaged a new referendum at the Labour Conference. Had he committed to it and whipped his caucus it would have passed.

just a few days ago he resisted an amendment to the Brexit bill that would have made it subject to a confirmatory referendum.

So the Corbynites May claim that a new referendum was “impossible.” But it was only prevented because they put the breaks on it. What hypocrisy.

 

nicky

From Survation/Mail poll
42% of LAB supporters say they would be more likely to vote for the party if Corbyn stepped down; 18% say they would be less likely to vote LAB.

nicky

Survation Mail poll "favoured stance on Brexit"
Johnson 41%
Swinnson 23%
Corbyn 15%

epaulo13

We Want a Socialist Society

Four years on from Jeremy Corbyn’s unexpected triumph, there is a realistic possibility of the election of a socialist government in Britain, or at least of the election of socialists to government. It is no more than a possibility. That it exists at all is due above all to the continuing crisis of the capitalist economy and the dissatisfaction of millions of people with their circumstances and prospects. The same situation exists across much of the world, upending all the assumptions which have prevailed for forty years or more.

The greatest difficulties for the Left lie ahead: winning an election and governing thereafter. But everything that has happened since September 2015 has better fitted it for the task, on the time-honored principle that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

And there has been no shortage of efforts to kill the resurgent left: a media campaign of engulfing and almost demented hostility directed at Corbyn personally, from BBC political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg’s interrogation as to whether Corbyn would “kneel before the Queen” in week one, through to the Sun’s risible “comrade Cob” smear. An attempted coup by the Parliamentary Labour Party designed to send the Leader packing, if needs be, by barring him from standing for reelection. Theresa May’s “crush the saboteurs” snap general election, called at a moment when the putative “saboteurs” looked ill-equipped to resist a crushing. And, as of 2019, the breakaway of a rump of right-wing Labour MPs to establish a new, and already divided, party in alliance with several Tory parliamentarians in a maneuver explicitly and openly designed to stop the election of a Corbyn-led Labour government; while in parallel a new group has been established in Parliament by Deputy Leader Tom Watson to pull the party back towards the right.

Yet the Left has held its position and advanced — the mass media has been confounded by its own waning influence in a more diverse communications landscape; the PLP were thwarted by Labour’s membership; and Theresa May was rebuked by the British people themselves. These were not just necessary victories in their own terms; they have reshaped the political map in lasting ways.

Achievements can often be best recognized in their opponents’ reactions. The stunned faces of Corbyn-skeptic Labour MPs when the BBC’s general election exit poll came in on June 8, 2017, and the “Corbyn surge” was confirmed, were a measure of the change that had been wrought, not least in political expectations. The “surge” brought together the social movements (“fragments” no more) with the trade unionists, and the metropolitan students with working-class communities.

Brexit is straining that coalition. But there are reasons the Left’s new strength is likely to be maintained.....

epaulo13

..from democracy now headlines

U.K. Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to Challenge PM Boris Johnson in Dec. 12 Election

In Britain, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has formally announced he will challenge Prime Minister Boris Johnson in an election scheduled for Dec. 12.

Jeremy Corbyn: “Today we launch the most ambitious and radical campaign our country has ever seen to bring real change to all parts of this country. If you want to live in a society that works for everybody, not just the billionaires, if you want to save our hospitals, schools and services from Tory cuts and privatization, if you want to stop the big polluters destroying our environment, then this election is your chance to vote for it.”

epaulo13

..more from

We Want a Socialist Society

quote:

Neoliberalism Is Decaying

To paraphrase Kenneth Wolstenholme of 1966 World Cup fame, the neoliberals thought it was all over. The final whistle had been blown and the Hayek-Thatcher-Reagan-Friedman team had won. Nothing more to argue about, history’s verdict was in. Sensible leaders on “the other side,” like Blair and Brown, acknowledged the result. There was nothing left to do but laugh all the way to the bank, literally in Tony Blair’s case, to cash the checks that the End of History had written.

They are not laughing any more. The elite is struggling to come to terms with a world in which all it believed was solid starts in its turn to melt into air — free trade, globalization, the transatlantic alliance, US hegemony, the European Union, capitalist democracy, even liberalism itself. The post-1979 consensus is over.

nicky
NDPP

You can't have socialism without a clean, full Brexit. The EU won't permit it. At present both Tories and Labour are simply pushing various forms of BRINO: Brexit in name only. 

 

"I am sorry to say but this is complete and utter nonsense and not a single Leave voter will believe it..."

https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1189911395296514051

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Before trotting off to work, May I refute just one of Ken’s myriad Trumpisms? ( he doesn’t seem to like “mendacities”)

He claims that a new referendum was not possible. This is of course nonsense.

a new referendum came within a dozen votes in Parliament in September. This without Corbyn giving more than lukewarm support. 

Corbyn sabotaged a new referendum at the Labour Conference. Had he committed to it and whipped his caucus it would have passed.

just a few days ago he resisted an amendment to the Brexit bill that would have made it subject to a confirmatory referendum.

So the Corbynites May claim that a new referendum was “impossible.” But it was only prevented because they put the breaks on it. What hypocrisy.

 

I don't like the term mendacities because it means "lies" and I haven't lied.

That dozen vote margin nicky refers to was as close as a second referendum was ever going to get to passing.  And there was no point in pushing for the second referendum before the next election when Corbyn was pledged to hold a second referendum if elected.  What Corbyn offered was just as good as a second referendum BEFORE the election.

And the most recent poll showed Leave winning a second referendum 54%-46%.  If that was the case, there was nothing any Remain campaign could do or say that would create a Remain majority in the electorate.  

Even if a second referendum had been possible before the election-and the prevailing vote pattern in the PLP proves that every Labour Leave MP would have defied the whip to keep voting against a second referendum before the election-that poll makes it unlikely at best that Remain would have won a second referendum.

Therefore, the push for a second referendum before an election was always pointless and it's time for you to let that go, nicky.

 

Ken Burch

nicky wrote:

Survation Mail poll "favoured stance on Brexit"
Johnson 41%
Swinnson 23%
Corbyn 15%

Which means the one with the pro-Brexit position, loathesome as he is, is most favored.

There's no reason to still be battering Corbyn over not going full Remain, when you know no Labour leader can be both full Remain AND socialist.

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
Corbyn's approval : favourable 20, unfavourable 70

very favorable 5, very unfavourable 53 

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/30/all-three-main-party-leaders-are-in-negative-ratings-territory-with-corbyns-numbers-the-worst/

why doesnt he just smell the roses, step aside and give Labour a chance to win with a different leader?

If the Labour Party cannot listen to its voter base, and work out its differences professionally through proper channels rather than having MPs continually backstab the leader in public, then Labour deserves to go down to a massive defeat in this campaign. There is absolutely no political party in the world that would tolerate the kind of open sabotage that these Labour MPs have engaged in.

This is my hope for the campaign. Corbyn wins and that settles the question of his leadership once and for all, or Labour crashes and burns, taking the majority of MPs who have been undercutting the party with them. I believe either outcome would be good for the Labour Party long term.

NDPP

Except it is NOT a 'pro-Brexit' position, no matter the stupid and unfounded narrative you persist against all evidence in clinging so desperately to.

Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement Does Not Amount to Leaving the European Union

http://rabble.ca/comment/5653116#comment-5653116

"The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) between Boris Johson and the European Union agreed this month IS NOT BREXIT. On the contrary, the agreement ties us into the neoliberal policies of the European Union at the expense of Britain's democratic self-government."

 

Lapavitsas: Boris' Deal Is No Left Exit

http://rabble.ca/comment/5651671#comment-5651671

"There can be no socialist radicalism today within the European Union. Even at this late hour that message ought to be stated loud and clear."

Neither UK Labour with its neither-fish-nor-fowl weak and vascillating leader Jeremy Corbyn nor BoJo the clown will deliver the Brexit the British people voted for. And let us hope they are suitably rewarded by the voters on election day.

epaulo13

Labour can win Britain's first climate election – but winning must just be the beginning

Last week, Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Rebecca Long-Bailey launched Labour’s ‘Thirty by 2030’ report – a detailed, comprehensive fast-track plan to decarbonise the UK’s electricity and heating systems by the 2030s.

Labour deserves major recognition for this report. While the UK’s other major political parties remain committed to piecemeal climate platforms which risk potentially disastrous consequences and do nothing to confront the underlying class dynamics driving climate breakdown, in this report Labour set out an ambitious, credible and appealing vision for rapid decarbonisation that is centered on justice for workers.

Taken together, the report’s 30 recommendations, which include insulation upgrades for every home in the UK, the installation of eight million heat pumps and the construction of enough new solar panels to cover 22,000 football pitches, represent climate policy formulated at a scale rarely – if ever – seen in the UK. As we enter a general election campaign, this ambition and level of detail on climate is unmatched....

epaulo13

epaulo13

..another union ad

epaulo13

link

This is Boris Johnson on his first campaign visit to Addenbrookes Hospital. He was forced to leave with the boos of patients and workers echoing in his ears. Please get this viral. 

epaulo13

..worth watching

Brexit nixed. Corbyn unleashed

Paul Mason - Here’s my first video report on the British general election from The Waves.

NDPP

"This is tragically deluded. Corbyn has already sold out one core belief for party unity, plenty more will follow."

https://twitter.com/PeterRamsay2011/status/1189586561391837184

 

Broken Promises (and vid) "It's comically easy to see why all these people were trying to block an election."

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1185958081588613120

"A one-off choice between staying in or leaving completely" : Jeremy Corbyn

 

Brexit is No Right-Wing Coup, But the Means of Escaping the EU's Neo-Liberal Economics That Are Harming Our Planet

http://rabble.ca/comment/5653106#comment-5653106

"The EU has become a dictatorial imposer of austerity and deregulation, uncaring about its impacts on the well-being of people and planet, and determined to derail any elected government that dares to dissent from its neoliberal ideology...Supporters of Extinction Rebellion should note that it is the EU's neoliberal economics that makes it impossible to make the required changes to combat climate change in the UK..."

epaulo13

..according to mason, corbyn's fortunes began to slide back in may when he didn't call for another referendum. a vote that would happen sometime down the road. once there was something to vote on. according to mason that's when the swing to the libs occurred.  

NDPP

Paul Mason: Which Side Are You On?

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/paul-mason-which-side-are-you

"The self-described student Trotskyist turned 'radical social democrat' specialises in providing 'left' cover for right-wing politics..."

epaulo13

..more to the point is the argument that people had voted way back when..was sufficient. there was no need for another vote. this was a silly argument back then and still is. people want a real say on a real plan. 

bekayne

NDPP wrote:

Neither UK Labour with its neither-fish-nor-fowl weak and vascillating leader Jeremy Corbyn nor BoJo the clown will deliver the Brexit the British people voted for. And let us hope they are suitably rewarded by the voters on election day.

So, it's Nigel all the way then?

Image result for nigel farage

Ken Burch

NDPP wrote:

Except it is NOT a 'pro-Brexit' position, no matter the stupid and unfounded narrative you persist against all evidence in clinging so desperately to.

Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement Does Not Amount to Leaving the European Union

http://rabble.ca/comment/5653116#comment-5653116

"The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) between Boris Johson and the European Union agreed this month IS NOT BREXIT. On the contrary, the agreement ties us into the neoliberal policies of the European Union at the expense of Britain's democratic self-government."

 

Lapavitsas: Boris' Deal Is No Left Exit

http://rabble.ca/comment/5651671#comment-5651671

"There can be no socialist radicalism today within the European Union. Even at this late hour that message ought to be stated loud and clear."

Neither UK Labour with its neither-fish-nor-fowl weak and vascillating leader Jeremy Corbyn nor BoJo the clown will deliver the Brexit the British people voted for. And let us hope they are suitably rewarded by the voters on election day.

Yes, get out of the economic and spending constraints, obviously.  But why do you see it as necessary to also get out of the environmental, labor and human rights standards and the European Court of Human Rights?  It's not possible to replace those on a strictly UK legislative basis because if you try, all of that instantly gets repealed the next time a Tory government gets in.

Ken Burch

Corbyn probably WOULD have stood down as leader if the PLP had simply accepted that he must be replaced by another Corbynite and that party must fight the election on a socialist program.  Would you agree that it was arrogant for the PLP to refuse to give such a guarantee, to refuse to give up on their pointless fight to restore "moderate" (i.e, Thatcherite-Blairite) policies?  Why did the PLP not accept the reality that the only legitimate identity for Labour now is as a clearly socialist party.

Ken Burch

Can we all agree that the sole focus now should be on attacking the Tories and LibDems and electing a decent socialist government to stop either of those parties from carrying out their right-wing agendas?

epaulo13

..it's a mistake to view dealing with the eu via some top down presupposed formula where by this or that must or must not be accomplished. this is about making a collective decision in an arena with diverse opinions. because it is only with the collective support that the uk can effectively deal with the eu. not the other way around. not brexit first because only the elites, and this includes labour leadership, can push this forward..which leaves the population out in the cold. 

..since being back i have posted on chile, lebanon, climate strikes and indigenous struggles. all are expressions of populations demanding voice. 

..the uk is no different.

Ken Burch

It's now being reported that Boris will withdraw the election bill, thus stopping the December 12th election, if, as is very possible, it is amended to allow 16 year-olds to vote:                                                                             https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-ele...

nicky

Labour winning the youth votes but getting thumped 6 to one in Corbyn’s age group.

Voting intention among 18-24 year olds
Lab - 38%
Lib Dem - 18%
Con - 16%
Green - 15%
Brexit Party - 5%

Voting intention among 70+ year olds
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 14%
Lib Dem - 14%
Lab - 9%
Green - 2%
 

nicky

Something Ken and I can agree on:

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
Labour winning the youth votes but getting thumped 6 to one in Corbyn’s age group.

Voting intention among 18-24 year olds
Lab - 38%
Lib Dem - 18%
Con - 16%
Green - 15%
Brexit Party - 5%

Voting intention among 70+ year olds
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 14%
Lib Dem - 14%
Lab - 9%
Green - 2%

Left-wing parties generally do better among younger voters than older ones. Why is this in particular any evidence of Corbyn being particularly bad? You think Singh or Layton did better with older voters here in Canada?

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