The purpose of this thread is to identify the signs that herald the decline if not demise of the Conservative Party which was formed in 2003. The following was written in 2015.
The key commitment of that deal was that there would be no merger of any sort with the Stephen Harper-led Canadian Alliance (CA).
The CA was the successor party to the Reform Party, which had stormed Ottawa in 1993, completely displacing the Progressive Conservatives in western Canada.
Mere months later, however, MacKay broke his solemn, written promise to Orchard.
At the urging of powerful forces in corporate Canada, Mackay entered into negotiations with the Canadian Alliance.
By the end of 2003, the merger of the two parties was complete.
The new party called itself simply the Conservative Party.
The Progressive Conservatives are gone.
The Reform Party is gone.
The Canadian Alliance is gone.
The Reform party basically took over the Progressive Conservative Party. Most Canadians just don't realize that this Conservative party is not the one that has traditionally alternated power with the Liberals.
Scheer's rival for the leadership was Bernier not someone more moderate than himself. The reform base demands some degree of social conservatism and and resistence to climate change actions. They must be militantly pro-oil. Scheer's position on gay marriage is akin to saying I don't agree with interacial marriage but I won't try to pass laws against it. We aren't quite there yet but we are on our way. For many people it is at least again to saying "I am a dinosaur". For centrists the Conservatives are looking more and more radical as they remain stuck in the past.
In my opinion that is a large part of why Trudeau won at least a minority. The Conservatives are losing the Red Tories that are not obsessed with oil, immigrants and social conservatism.
They will splinter again because the forces that tore them apart in the past are still present even though Harper managed to quell them while in power. It couldn't last much longer. The signs were there in 2015 with Harper's last minute immigration dog whistle.