2019 UK election 2

Ken, I don’t believe you answered my question. If anti-Semitism in the Labour Party is a complete hoax, as you endlessly maintain, why did Corbyn apologize for it?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/03/corbyn-apologises-for-antisemitism-in-labour-party

Aristotleded24 wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

General election 2019

Your tactical vote can stop the Tories

WHAT IS TACTICAL VOTING?

Tactical voting lets you use your vote strategically to get the overall election result you want to see.

The UK uses an election system called first-past-the-post, where the candidate who gets the most votes in each constituency wins. This makes it possible for MPs to get elected without winning the support of a majority of the voters, if the opposition is divided.

By voting tactically, you can overcome this problem, uniting behind the candidate who has the best chance of defeating the Conservatives where you live. They may not be your first choice, but your vote for them can help stop the Tories. This website is a tool to help you decide on your tactical vote.

WHY TRUST THIS SITE?

We were the most accurate tactical voting site in the 2017 general election, thanks to our simple and transparent methodology.

So people are thinking about tactically voting for the Liberal Democrats after they rolled over and gave the Tories a de facto majority from 2010 to 2015?

..no they are thinking about how to prevent a tory majority. did you read the article at 127? what are your thoughts on that?

edit.

Yes, I read the article. They endorse Liberal Democrats in some seats to beat the Tories, even though the Liberal Democrats were part of the Cameron government that unleashed that austerity and will no doubt enable the Conservatives after the election by refusing to align with Labour to topple the government. It's the same garbage the Liberals in Canada promoted, even though under Paul Martin's watch as Prime Minister health care funding was cut and the protections in the Canada Health Act against health care privatization were gutted.

The only tactical vote in this election is a vote for Labour (or possibly the SNP). It's the Labour agenda that, as the article points out, can block the threat of the Conservative public policy porgramme. The Liberal Democrats do not deserve such consideration.

..you brush off the threat of a johnson majority as garbage. what if your wrong and the article is bang on? after all it is well written with a depth of knowledge. not at all the same as what you describe happened in canada. 

eta: in any case it's happening. and this is what it looks like.

The big tactical voting comparison

TRNN has an interview with the (Jewish) editor of a new book analyzing the claims of antisemitism in the Labour Party. His summary is that there's no there there. I highly recommend this to JKR in particular.

Manifestoes and the Art of Misleading

https://www.cpbml.org.uk/news/manifestoes-and-art-misleading

"...Labour, meanwhile, presents a muddle where the only clear thing is that it will attempt to stay in the EU, or leave in terms that amount to staying in. Its central strategy is jaw-droppingly manipulative and anti-democratic - to present a referendum choice between staying fully in the EU or staying in the Customs Union and the Single Market but without having a say in their rules.

Jeremy Corbyn says he will stay neutral. Neutered is the right word. But to offer a referendum choice that excludes a clear leave would be outrageous. It would be no choice at all. The British people won't stand for it. The Labour Manifesto is full of great promises, most of which would definitely be incapable of implementation should we stay in the EU, and which would probably be outlawed even in a looser customs union and single market association. With the publication of Labour and Conservative manifestoes, it is at least clear what this grim election is about - deciding on the least worst option. Salvation is not going to come from above."

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/‘i-served-troubles-–-and-i-know-corbyn’s-peacemaker-not-terrorist-sympathiser’?fbclid=IwAR36UtjpcMQad3UC_Ww5qGx2NkZl24tfdlaGIcYS-NoQWSMcZwAk8hZY6UQ#.XeuA1oZTGnM.facebook

Labour's Pose As Defender of the National Health Service Exposed

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/12/11/heal-d11.html

"Labour's claims to be the only party that will defend the NHS is the main reason many support the party. But like most of its pledges, this too is without genuine substance. The most devastating rebuttal of Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn's rhetoric about there being just days to 'save the NHS'  by electing a Labour government was provided by Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth...Ashworth is heard repeatedly denouncing Corbyn and insisting that under him Labour cannot win the election...This is just one of the many right-wing MPs that Corbyn has worked cheek by jowl with as leader for years."

The Ashworth Election Tapes (and audio)

https://youtu.be/6FIrFGFAzQI

Jonathan Ashworth: "It's dire for Labour. The civil service would move quickly to safeguard the country from Corbyn..."

What a twisted trainwreck and depressing, deceiving, disappointment of a party for which people once had great hope UK Labour has turned out to be.

TROLLS, SOCK PUPPETS & USEFUL IDIOTS

An Anatomy of an Election Disinformation Campaign

quote:

The TV Journalist

The next day, Joe Pike, a young journalist for ITV Calendar in Grimsby, was following the Conservative Party leader as he posed for photos holding a large cod (not for the first time) in the fishing town which has often become an emblem of ‘taking back control’ of our waters by leaving the European Union.

Unlike the BBC interviewer Andrew Neil, Joe Pike has no reputation for skewering politicians, so Boris Johnson and his advisors probably thought they didn’t need to avoid this particular interview in the bowels of the fish warehouses. They miscalculated. Pike whipped out his phone with the photo of Jack Williment-Barr lying on the floor, and persistently questioned the Prime Minister about it.

In a psychologically revealing panic, Johnson tried to bluster that everything would improve once we “got Brexit done”. But Pike persisted. Johnson tried to steamroller him, but his darting eyes and demeanour showed that he didn’t want to answer the question and, in an effort to avoid it, the Prime Minister took the reporter’s phone and hid it in his pocket. This prompted one of the most remarkable comments of the campaign so far from Pike who remarked, calmly:

“You’ve refused to see the photo. You’ve taken my phone and put it in your pocket, Prime Minister.”

Child psychiatrists would have a field day on this. The failure to realise that hiding your face does not make you invisible, or that stealing a reporter’s phone does not make the report go away, suggests that – under pressure – the leader of the Conservative Party has the social cognitive abilities of a four-year-old.

quote:

The Mainstream Media Campaign

As Hancock rushed to Leeds, a host of media figures sympathetic to Johnson rushed into action. Guido Fawkes (which registered the site Boris2020 seven years ago) was first off the mark, with a fake story that 100 Labour activists were being paid to go to Leeds to protest. This was followed up by his former colleague at the Sun, Tom Newton Dunn, who described a “flash mob descending”.

Soon, the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, was describing to her 1.1 million followers how “Labour activists scrambled to go and protest” and then “it turned nasty” when “one of them punched Hancock’s adviser”. The information had no attribution, or “I’ve heard” or “sources say”.

Not to be left out, Robert Peston, the political editor of the second largest broadcaster, ITV, identified the person punched to his 1 million followers, and named the special adviser to Matt Hancock, adding that the police had been called.

The only problem with this breaking story – which quickly and conveniently replaced the story of Johnson pocketing the reporter’s phone in all the major news feeds – was that it was completely bogus.

There were about four noisy demonstrators outside Leeds General Infirmary as Hancock departed in his ministerial car, not 100. No punch was ever landed. Hancock’s SpAd walked into a cyclist’s hand as he pointed to the ministerial car rushing away.

It took several hours of persistent correction from other Twitter users before both Peston and Kuenssberg corrected the damaging allegation of assault. But their apologies revealed even more…

The final polls are hardly consistent.  The Con lead is anywhere from 6 to 13. Expanding in some polls, contracting in others. 

A high interest in tactical voting vs Cons having a modest lead in Lab held marginals and a confortable lead in Con held marginals.

If it is a hung Parliament it will be because many voters who are appalled at Corbyn becoming PM will still vote Labour because they do not believe he can be elected and in any event may be replaced as Labour leader as the cost of the SNP and Lib Dems supporting a Labour minority.

But overall it looks like a modest Con majority. This despite an untrustworthy unpopular leader of a stale incompetent discredited government. And a party on the minority popular side of the major issue.

The Cons have no business coming within miles of winning this election. With virtually any other Labour leader they would not come close.

nicky wrote:

The final polls are hardly consistent.  The Con lead is anywhere from 6 to 13. Expanding in some polls, contracting in others. 

A high interest in tactical voting vs Cons having a modest lead in Lab held marginals and a confortable lead in Con held marginals.

If it is a hung Parliament it will be because many voters who are appalled at Corbyn becoming PM will still vote Labour because they do not believe he can be elected and in any event may be replaced as Labour leader as the cost of the SNP and Lib Dems supporting a Labour minority.

But overall it looks like a modest Con majority. This despite an untrustworthy unpopular leader of a stale incompetent discredited government. And a party on the minority popular side of the major issue.

The Cons have no business coming within miles of winning this election. With virtually any other Labour leader they would not come close.

The fact is that Corbyn has been under so much open warfare from his own party that it's not surprising that it brought down his popularity, even to the point of doing so during an election. Remember when Mulcair was leader? I was one of his harshest critics both in the lead-up to and during his leadership, but during the campaign I set that aside to try and help the NDP win while waiting until after the campaign to air my grievances. If Mulcair had come under half the internal sniping as Corbyn has, you would be screaming about how treasonous these people are, and I would have stood with you. Either air your grievances with the leader in a proper forum, or quit the party and do something else. As for the result, it looks like the Conservatives are going to win, and no real action will be taken to improve people's lives. Right-wingers like you should be happy with the result.

We will all see tomorrow night.

Either I am wrong or it will be interesting to see what excuses Corbyn’s apologists advance. Of course it can never be his fault.

"The EU has the only constitution in the world committed to capitalism. It destroys the prospects of socialism anywhere in Europe, making capitalism a constitutional requirement of that setup."  - Tony Benn, UK Labour

https://twitter.com/TrevorWAllman/status/1204809286796353536

Greta Thunberg‏

Every election is a climate election. Vote for your children. Vote for the planet. Vote for future generations. Vote for humanity. #GE2019 #UKElection

These images of people queuing to vote will scare the death out of the Tories

..pic from the financial times

I wonder what chord Boris has struck with the people lining up in the UK. [pic from 2015]

epaulo13 wrote:

..for a long time i've understood that the larger the turnout the better the chance for a more progressive outcome. because 99% vs 1%. does this not still hold true? 

I think it does. The reason is that the most progressive people tend to be young and they tend to not vote at the same rate as older people. Older more Conservative people are more reliable voters. Therefore if more come out then it signals:

1) more progressive voters and a more progressive result

2) more motivation and therefore more likely a change in government.

All this said - Brexit screws with the second a bit becuase the motivation will be high even among those who do not want to change the govenrment.

Still - it is a positive sign.

Put another way -- a high turnout may not mean in this case a more progressive vote but it would be a prerequisite.

Generally there is a lot of historical support for the contention that a high turnout means more progressive turnout or a change in goverment. Both would be good here but Brexit is motivating people on both sides....

epaulo13 wrote:

..for a long time i've understood that the larger the turnout the better the chance for a more progressive outcome. because 99% vs 1%. does this not still hold true? 

For example, 2002 Vancouver municipal election when turnout went from 37% to 50% resulting in a COPE landslide. Also the 1995 Quebec referendum shows how a high turnout (93.5%) can confound the pollsters.

bekayne wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

..for a long time i've understood that the larger the turnout the better the chance for a more progressive outcome. because 99% vs 1%. does this not still hold true? 

For example, 2002 Vancouver municipal election when turnout went from 37% to 50% resulting in a COPE landslide. Also the 1995 Quebec referendum shows how a high turnout (93.5%) can confound the pollsters.

On the other hand, prior to 2015, the Alberta NDP had its best showing in 1986, when voter turnout dipped below 50% since the first time at least as far back as 1975. They also did okay in '89, with a 53% turnout, but got wiped out in '93 when turnout hit the 60% mark.

As for their most famous showing, 2015 had a 57% turnout, but 2019 was 64%.

https://tinyurl.com/t9m7faq

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I wonder what chord Boris has struck with the people lining up in the UK. [pic from 2015]

I put my hopes in the huge lines of young voters being shown all over the UK today...standing out there in the "heavy weather" Nigel Farage wished for on polling day.

Anything can happen.

BBC exit poll based on 20,000 voters 

Cons 368 (+50) majority government

Labour 191 (-71) lowest seat count since 1935 if this happens

SNP 55 (+20) could it lead to a push for Scottish independence if this is close to the case and hard Brexit happens

LD 13 (+1)

PC 3 (-1)

Brexit 0 looks like all their vote went Con

Indeed - both Corbyn and Scotland probably gone.

If the exit poll is correct.   Their exit polls have been wrong in the past.

And even if it is, it doesn't justify the fact that you've spent the last four years shitting on Corbyn here over and over and over again.

Your discourse has been nasty, spiteful, and fundamentally dishonest, especially in your insistence on perpetuating the AS smear even though it was long ago discredited.

Shame on you for helping Boris get a majority if that is what has happened.

Yeah, i’m Happy. Just like Cassandra was when Troy was sacked.

You  Corbynites need to take responsibility for this catastrophe.

I helped Boris get his majority? Grow up Ken. Do you think my posts here on an obscure Canadian website influenced one single vote in Britain?

It speaks volumes that you seem to think I am more responsible for Labour’s defeat than is Jeremy Corbyn.

..it's always been the forces of divide and rule that have been driving this. having said that..it's still to early make these kind of statements.