Privatization, Cuts and PC Budgets

In cancelling solar and wind projects, the Ford government isn't saving money, its paying hundreds of millions because of lost transfer payments for such greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.  

The Doug Ford government spent more than $230 million to axe more than 750 renewable-energy projects, despite promising taxpayers the move wouldn't cost them a cent.

The spending was revealed in question period Monday by NDP environment critic Peter Tabuns, who said the cost was hidden in the province’s 2018-19 public accounts as a “strange little entry” labelled “other transactions.” 

“How can the premier claim he’s saving taxpayers and ratepayers money when he’s throwing away $231 million to not build renewable energy?” Tabuns said.

Ontario’s associate energy minister, Bill Walker, didn’t deny the number: “We thought maybe (this question) would be coming at some point,” he said.  ...

The government cancelled the 758 wind and solar projects — including the contentious White Pines Wind Project in Milford, Ont. — soon after Ford took office in June 2018. At the time, the government said scrapping the projects would result in energy-bill savings for Ontarians. 

Walker said the green-energy projects weren’t necessary and were, in some cases, unwanted. He pointed in particular to White Pines, which had been partially constructed when Ford cancelled it — one of the premier’s first acts after taking office in June 2018. 

“This municipality was an unwilling host from Day 1,” Walker said on Tuesday. “They did not want the turbines, and we did the right thing.”

White Pines in particular had been a decade in the making, receiving final approval during the election that swept Ford to power. Axing the project was a Progressive Conservative campaign promise (the demolition process started in October). ...

The company behind White Pines, wpd Canada, previously warned that the cancellation could leave taxpayers out $100 million, but Ford’s government said it was crafting legislation to avoid that cost.

Tabuns compared the Ford governments’ actions to those of the previous Liberal government, whose cancellation of gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville cost the province more than $1 billion.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/07/13/news/ontario-cancelling-758-...

On the same as Ontario Engergy Minister Greg Rickford quoted a climate change denial blog (described in post #150) to justify ending funding for  green engergy projects in Ontario, a group of young people sued the Ford government over its inaction on global warming, demanding greater action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the province. 

 Climate director of Ecojustice, Alan Andrews, warns that any province that fails to deal with climate change in a meaningful way will face litigation. The Trudeau federal government has already been sued by young people over its failure to deal with climate change. 

One of the plaintiffs is Shaelyn Wabegijig,  a 22 year old from the Rama First Nation near Orillia, who said  she's concerned about having children if the effects of climate change continue to worsen.

A group of young Ontarians is suing the province over what they say is climate change inaction, arguing that the Ford government has violated their charter rights by softening emissions reduction targets.

The group claims that recent policy changes "will lead to widespread illness and death," an alleged violation of Section 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which promises protection for life, liberty and security of the person.

They are calling on the Ontario government to commit to more ambitious emission reductions with the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 C, a key target set out in the United Nations' Paris Agreement on climate change.

"Doug Ford is not doing enough to protect our future and it's just unacceptable," said Sophia Mathur, a 12-year-old from Sudbury and one of seven applicants taking part. "I just want to live a normal life in the future; I shouldn't have to be doing this, but adults aren't doing a good job," she told CBC News. ...

"I'm afraid that so many species that I love will go extinct," added Zoe Keary-Matzner, 13, from Toronto. "And that children in the future won't be able to enjoy nature the same way I do."

The applicants, ranging from age 12 to 24, are represented by Stockwoods LLP and Ecojustice, a group that specializes in public interest lawsuits in the name of environmental protection. Their challenge is part of a growing trend in which young people across the globe are suing governments over perceived inaction on climate change. ...

Earlier this year, more than a dozen young Canadians launched a similar lawsuit against the federal government. Similar legal challenges have gone to courts in the U.S. and the Netherlands, with varying degrees of success. This is the first lawsuit filed against a Canadian province over climate inaction.

"Any government that is failing to address the climate emergency in a meaningful way can expect to face litigation of this nature," said Alan Andrews, climate director at Ecojustice. ...

The group is focusing its lawsuit on the Ford government's decision to scale back emission targets set by the Liberals in 2015.

The previous plan called for a 37-per-cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The reduction target climbed to 80 per cent by 2050.

Under the Progressive Conservatives, Ontario now plans to reduce emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. There is no longer a 2050 target.

The PCs have also repealed a cap-and-trade agreement that gave companies incentives to reduce carbon emissions. They are also in the process of challenging a carbon tax imposed by Ottawa to take its place. ...

"People are very focused on other things; on making money, focusing on the economy, that they don't think about their connection to mother earth," said applicant Shaelyn Wabegijig, 22.

Wabegijig, who grew up at Rama First Nation near Orillia, said she's concerned about having children if the effects of climate change continue to worsen.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-youth-climate-change-laws...

The just released Ontario auditor general's report blasted the Ford government's climate action plan for not having any chance of coming anywhere near achieving its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets, despite Ford's claims otherwise. Ford is probably would love to fire the auditor general, Bonnie Lysyk, if he could, like he did the environmental commissioner, Diane Saxe. 

Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk

The threadbare climate and environment policies of Doug Ford’s Ontario government are insufficient to meet Ontario’s 2030 emission reduction targets and are riddled with errors and omissions, according to the province’s fiscal watchdog.

The Progressive Conservative government calculated some reductions based on green policies it scrapped when it came to power last year, double-counted other savings, and failed to properly estimate costs for more than half of the initiatives in its Made-in-Ontario environment plan, Auditor General of Ontario Bonnie Lysyk said.

“Our audit concluded that the emission-reduction estimates in the plan are not based on sound evidence or sufficient detail,” Lysyk said in her 2019 annual report, which was released on Wednesday. ...

The scathing critique of the replacement environment plan the Ford government first put forward in November last year is part of a wide-ranging four-volume report considering the value-for-money of a range of government policies, including those related to hospitals and health care; the judiciary and prisons; and food, vehicle and workplace safety.

Its sections on climate change and environmental policy are the first reckoning Ford has faced on that file from an independent watchdog since he fired Dianne Saxe, the former Environmental Commissioner of Ontario, and transferred a portion of her mandate to the auditor general’s office on April 1. ...

The report says the environment ministry’s own calculations from last November would only get the province’s globe-warming emissions to 160.9 megatonnes (Mt) by 2030. 

That is well short of the 143.3 Mt target it would need hit to achieve a 30 per cent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030, its stated policy goal.

But Lysyk’s office in August also asked Ontario’s environment ministry to recalculate its forecast to account for new data, and in response the ministry lowered its projections to say it expected to emit 163.6 Mt in 2030, even further from a target many critics say is not ambitious enough.

The report did not estimate the cost to Ontario of dealing with the effects of climate change, which include more severe and more frequent flooding and other extreme weather that is putting a heavy strain on the insurance industry. 

Global economic losses from climate-related extreme events were estimated at around $10 billion a year in the 1970s and since 2010 have exceeded $100 billion (at constant 2012 currency values), according to a 2015 report commissioned by the Insurance Bureau of Canada. ...

The report was immediately jumped on by climate activists and opposition politicians, with NDP Leader Andrea Horwath saying it showed Ford’s government “is acting like the climate crisis isn’t a problem.” ...

Keith Stewart, Greenpeace Canada’s senior energy strategist, went further, saying that the auditor general had ”unmasked Doug Ford’s so-called climate plan as a fraud.”

The report shows that Ontario’s climate change plan falls apart under serious scrutiny, Environmental Defence’s Sarah Buchanan said, and actually works against serious climate action. ...

The auditor general said the most egregious error in the government’s climate change calculations was an assumption that Ontario vehicle owners would switch in large numbers to electric models despite its slashing of rebates on such purchases and their supporting infrastructure and the ripping up of charging stations at Toronto-area train stations. ...

Ford’s environment ministry had assumed the number of electric vehicles in Ontario would jump from 41,000 in 2019 to 1.3 million by 2030, reducing emissions by 2.6 Mt, “but had no policy mechanisms to drive this uptake,” the report said. ...

The report also pointed out major policy changes that did not comply with the province’s Environmental Bill of Rights, including the repeal of cap and trade without public consultation. Ford’s government had argued that the Ontario election last year amounted to a “substantial equivalent” to that consultation, an argument the Ontario Divisional Court rejected in October. ...

Her report also said the provincial environment ministry was being undermined by actions taken in other parts of the government that were not adequately taking into account the environmental impacts of their decisions.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/12/04/news/ontario-auditor-general...

Mr. Ford's 'No More Mr. Mean Guy' persona is, as you likely guessed, part of his plan to get re-elected while carrying out the same policies that helped drive his unpopularity. 

Toronto’s happiest day in many years was not a good day for Doug Ford. On June 17, when two million basketball fans came out for the Raptors’ victory parade, the throngs of ecstatic people in Nathan Phillips Square cheered for Mayor John Tory and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau but heartily booed the premier when he was announced.

For a politician who sees himself as a man of the people, the boos are said to have come as a personal blow, an obvious, public manifestation of what the polls had been showing for months: his government was at least as unpopular as the one he had replaced a year earlier. Ford staffers push back at suggestions the booing was a key moment for the premier, saying he took it in stride, but within days the once combative Ford had shifted gears. In rapid succession, Ford shuffled his cabinet and accepted the resignation of chief of staff Dean French, who had alienated caucus members and staffers and repeatedly embarrassed the boss with a number of hard-to-explain scandals. ...

Ford, who had driven out the Liberals after 15 years by promising to cut spending without cutting jobs, seems not to have been prepared for the public reaction to the budget cuts in the first budget, and his government was leaky, disorganized, constantly backtracking and looking foolish in one way or another.

He pushed hard to cut spending, but then repeatedly backed off under complaints that he ought to have expected. The result: he has alienated important constituencies without reducing spending, which has disappointed fiscal conservatives hoping the province would tackle its debt. ...

People close to Ford say nothing in his previous experience—running a medium-sized label company and serving one term on city council—prepared him for the subtle, difficult job of governing Ontario. The qualities that had served him well previously—his bluff authenticity, his accessibility, his salesman-like way with people—had not scaled up to the job at hand. ...

Insiders say that although published polling may not show it, things have turned around, and they have a plan to recover further.

French’s replacement, former Postmedia executive Jamie Wallace, is doing things by the book, which is making life easier on staff and caucus. “Things got real sensible real quick,” says one insider. And Ford has put his more popular cabinet ministers in the window, letting Finance Minister Rod Phillips, Education Minister Stephen Lecce and Transport Minister Carolyn Mulroney manage their files and communicate directly.

A big part of the recovery plan is: No more Mr. Mean Guy. In his first year in office, Ford was constantly feuding. With members of his caucus, with Toronto City Council, with francophones, parents of autistic children, with former leader Patrick Brown, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “There are real substantive issues that need to be dealt with, so why are you waking up in the morning, like they were in the first year, and saying, who are we going to fight with today?” says one Tory insider.

That has stopped. “We’ve kept him out of fights,” says Kory Teneycke, his campaign manager in 2018 and in the next provincial election. “When you’re out there fighting with everybody, it’s hard to be popular.” ...

The next step is for the premier to show off his affable side. His team thinks the long-time salesman ought to be able to use his easy way with people to demonstrate to Ontarians that he can work well with other leaders.

Ford is hoping to play Captain Canada, facilitating conversations between other premiers. ...

The relationship with Trudeau is also key to Ford’s political revival. Their first two meetings were hostile, and Ford frequently attacked Trudeau in his first year in office, acting more like a federal opposition politician than the leader of another level of government.

But in the recent federal election, Ford stayed quiet while Trudeau repeatedly attacked him. ... 

But Ford took the shots, held his tongue and after the election he signalled a desire to put the attacks aside and work with Ottawa.

Ford wants federal money for some big infrastructure projects, and to get it he will need to co-operate with Trudeau and Tory. “John Tory and Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau all have a reason to agree on infrastructure spending in the GTA. ...

The conventional wisdom in political circles in Toronto and Ottawa is that Ford will be defeated by the Liberals in the election in June 2022, but there are good reasons to think he can come back, says pollster Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, which tracks the approval ratings of Canadian premiers.

“He has kept his base,” she said in an interview. “He still has 37 per cent approval. On the one hand that sounds dismal, but on the other hand, I’ve seen quarters where a premier with 37 per cent would be at the top of the heap, not the bottom.”

Pollster David Herle, who co-managed three campaigns for former premier Kathleen Wynne, thinks Ford’s personality will scuttle the idea of an image change. “Who are they replacing him with?” he said. “We’ve been watching him his whole life, right? We know what he’s like. I’m very skeptical of that.”

Herle thinks the caucus, looking at likely defeat, may try to force him out. ...

Even his allies think that it is a possibility that his party could try to dump him through a caucus revolt. “Ontario Tories are only good at two things, losing elections and knifing leaders,” says one Tory insider. ...

The insiders say the good news for Ford is that there may be a more tempting target in Ottawa. “I actually think Scheer’s leadership problems make it much less likely, because all the people who like insurrections actually have a fun one they can participate in.”

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/premier-doug-fords-recovery-plan-no-mor...

The Ford government lost its court battle over its Student Choice Initiative, which was a directive allowing post-secondary students to opt out of paying some student fees. The non essential services targeted by Ford were student unions, campus newspapers and radio stations, food banks and service centres, in other words anything aimed at helping or informing students. Of course athletics was labelled essential. However, Ford will appeal the decision. 

The Student Choice Initiative was first announced in January. Then-Training, Colleges and Universities Minister Merrilee Fullerton claimed at the time that students in Ontario were being forced to pay for “services they do not use and organizations they do not support.”

The initiative was quashed by an Ontario divisional court last month, after the Canadian Federation of Students and the York Federation of Students challenged the government’s ability to allow students to opt out of paying for services and groups deemed “non-essential.” (The court found in their analysis that CFS and YFS fees represented just $60.60 out of the $8,687.30 students were paying in tuition, university and student ancillary fees each year.)

The list of non-essential services included student unions, campus newspapers and radio stations, food banks and service centres. Several had been mounting campaigns to maintain student support. The court ruling pointed out that the government hadn’t offered an explanation for why it labelled student association fees as “non-essential,” while athletics — a more expensive endeavour — were labelled as essential.

“Indeed, aside from the statement made by the Premier in the fundraising letter, no explanation is provided by Ontario as to why Cabinet concluded that, of all the components of ancillary fees charged to college and university students, only one — student association fees — was deemed by Cabinet to be non-essential,” the decision from the court, posted online by the CFS, reads. The Doug Ford fundraising letter in question, which the court deemed irrelevant and did not consider in its decision, accused student unions of “crazy Marxist nonsense.”

Pressed on Tuesday for an explanation of why athletic fees were deemed essential, Romano demurred. “I’m not able to elaborate, again, given that the matter is presently under an appeal, but what I can say is that we have protected certain programs or certain services as essential,” he said.

Among its conclusions, last month’s court decision additionally noted that student associations were private, not-for-profit corporations, which Ontario does not fund or control, directly or indirectly. “The autonomy of universities, as private institutions, is fundamental to the academic freedom that is their hallmark,” the decision reads. ...

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath accused the government on Tuesday of trying to “put the screws to the students unions.” “Instead of dragging this through the courts, what they need to do is provide funding for the organizations that were run by student unions that help support students,” Horwath said. “Because those folks — those organizations, those services — had to lay people off, they had to withdraw services from students in university and college, and that’s ridiculous.”

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/12/10/ford-government-to-appeal-student-choice...

Hamilton Mayor Fred Eisenberger criticized the Ford government for eliminating Hamilton's LRT without consultation while not cutting other projects. Is this payback for not electing Conservatives?

The Doug Ford government told us today the provincial government will be terminating Hamilton’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) project effective immediately.

Minister of Transportation, Caroline Mulroney and Metrolinx informed myself and City staff that the estimated cost of the LRT project have nearly doubled since they shared their recommitment and bench marking numbers. The true cost of the project would have been finalized when the request for proposals (RFPs) were delivered in March 2020. Estimates are estimates. Talking about numbers ahead of the RFP is malpractice.

LRT was a massive investment project for the City of Hamilton. It would have created hundreds of jobs, economic uplift, increased affordable housing, cut CO2 emissions drastically and built a City of Hamilton ready for the future. My thoughts are with the 40 individuals in the Hamilton LRT office impacted by this announcement.

I am extremely disappointed by the Minister’s approach to informing the City of this announcement and for cancelling their scheduled media availability and briefing.

No other projects have been quashed. Although Mississauga and Toronto projects are more expensive than advertised, they are going ahead. This is a betrayal by the province to the City of Hamilton. This will not only hurt Hamilton’s economy, but Ontario’s economy.

The message to the world is that Ontario is an unreliable partner. Ontario is not a place where you can do business because of the Ford government. Ford’s message to the world is take your business elsewhere.

While I am pleased the Ford government remains committed to giving Hamilton $1 billion in transit infrastructure, today’s announcement rollout is a poor way to do business and an irrational way to create a positive partnership moving forward. 

• Statement from the Mayor, Light Rail Transit

The Ontario NDP is criticizing the Ford government for its cancelation of a Eastern Ontario wind farm based on faulty science, a cancelation that could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions. The NDP already revealed last months that the Cons cancelation of other renewable energy project contracts has cost the province $231 million.

NDP call out Ford government for wasting taxpayer dollars on cancelled wind farm

A wind turbine is silhouetted against the setting sun (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

A government decision to cancel an eastern Ontario wind farm to save local bat species was based on faulty science and could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars, the province’s official opposition said Friday.

A pair of New Democrat legislators said the Progressive Conservatives have made a mistake by scrapping the Nation Rise Wind Farm near Cornwall, Ont. and are using concerns about the bat population as an excuse to halt the green energy development.

NDP environment critic Ian Arthur and climate change critic Peter Tabuns said the party consulted with a British Columbia-based scientist specializing in migratory bats, adding her findings raise concerns about the rationale for cancelling the project and the implications for future government decisions. “The unfortunate thing is when you try to use flimsy scientific evidence in this manner you undermine the credibility of scientific work that is being done all across Canada and the world,” Arthur said at a news conference.

Earlier this month, Environment Minister Jeff Yurek revoked the project’s approval, citing the risk to three bat species. His decision came despite a ruling from the province’s Environmental Review Tribunal that determined the risk the project posed to the bat population was negligible.

Nation Rise has launched a legal challenge of the government decision, and is asking the Ontario divisional court to set it aside. ...

The NDP’s critiques of the project were based on the findings of Erin Baerwald, a conservation biologist specializing in migratory bats at the University of Northern British Columbia, who examined at the work done by Nation Rise and disagrees with the government’s decision.

She said the company offered to shut down its turbines during low wind speeds and autumn migrations, a move she said would reduce bat fatalities by more than 50 per cent. “They did all the right things,” she said of the company’s work. “They went above and beyond what the Ontario (government) requires for bat surveys. They proactively and voluntarily agreed to implement some pretty strict mitigation strategies.”

Tabuns said the Nation Rise project cancellation marks the government’s latest instance of scrapping green energy deals at a steep financial cost to taxpayers. Last month, the NDP revealed that the province had spent $231 million to cancel more than 750 renewable energy contracts shortly after winning the 2018 election.

“(Premier) Doug Ford needs to come clean about how much his destruction of wind farms is costing the people of Ontario,” he said. “They’re completely wasting money.”

https://www.680news.com/2019/12/20/ndp-call-out-ford-government-for-wast...

Despite Ford's 'change of tone' their is no evidence in polling that this is bearing any fruit in either his or the Cons' popularity. I suggest his policies just might have something to do with that. 

The media has picked up on efforts to present a kinder, refreshed, genteel Doug Ford, but the public has yet to notice.

Impressions of the Ontario Premier have been relatively stable since April 2019 when his negatives first reached the ~60% disapproval threshold and ~20% positive, a dynamic that has not shifted for some time.

Today, 44% of Ontarians report having a very negative impression of the premier, while another 18% describe their view as mostly negative. Nearly everyone has an opinion on Ford– only 4% suggest they don’t know enough to have a view.

Though a fresh face and renewed approach by the Premier would take some time to take root, there has been relatively little traction so far from a public opinion standpoint.

Men particularly drive support for the premier while women tend to have a much dimmer view of the premier. His support is more robust in suburban areas of the province, though there is no edge for the premier in the 905 or significant differences between Toronto voters and the wider GTA.

Income is by far the biggest correlate of views of the premier, with those in households under $50K or less having a significantly more negative view of the premier than those in higher income brackets.

https://abacusdata.ca/doug-ford-reset-public-polling-abacus-2019/

And if that is not enough for the people to say enough is enough, the article below discusses what Ford has planned for 2020, in terms of education strikes, the budget, carbon tax appeal, hydro bills, health care changes, transit, selling alcohol in private stores and Ontario Place. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-ontario-politics-lookah...

Ford  is adding another major problem to the numerous ones he has already created with the proposal to keep Pickering nuclear plant operating beyond its natural life in order to save money.

The Pickering nuclear power plant is already operating beyond the terms of its natural life. Critics warn that the Ford government’s move to eke out a little bit more power from the site is playing with fire. Energy Minister Greg Rickford said on Tuesday that Ontario Power Generation, the provincial agency that operates the site, had proposed keeping four of its six operational reactors going for one year past the already-extended deadline of 2024. 

But critics warn that even one extra year of operations at the site is a risky undertaking. “They are already skating on thin ice, and this is only going to make it even thinner ice,” said Gordon Edwards, a scientist and the founder of the Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility.

That’s because the zirconium alloy used in the hundreds of tubes holding nuclear fuel in Pickering’s reactors are exposed to intense radiation, very hot water, and high pressure, he said. 

“As it gets older, the metal is getting progressively more brittle, meaning it is more inclined to break, more inclined to crack, more inclined to split, and that is very dangerous,” Edwards said.

It costs billions of dollars to replace the tubing, which is what is being done at the refurbishments at the two other nuclear plants in Ontario, in Darlington and on the Bruce Peninsula. 

Ontario is spending some $25 billion between 2016 and 2031 to extend the life of 10 reactors at those sites and maintain the province’s nuclear power capacity at 9,900 megawatts . Ontario’s peak demand has meanwhile fallen from just below 20,000 megawatts in 2005 to under 18,000 megawatts in 2016. 

Nuclear power from Pickering, Darlington and Bruce supplies about 60 percent of Ontario’s total electricity needs.

Anti-nuclear advocates at Ontario Clean Air Alliance said in response to the extension news that Pickering “relies on seriously outdated technology” and is designed in such a way that a problem with any one of its six operational reactors could create a cascading effect on the others.

Angela Bischoff, a director at the group, also said that the plant has been plagued with safety problems over the years, including an accident in 1983 in which a pressure tube suffered a metre-long rupture and a loss of coolant. Coolant loss can cause a surge of power to occur in the reactor core. The site was shut down and two of the four reactors were eventually replaced (and two mothballed) at a cost of $1 billion. 

Then in 1994, another pipe break resulted in a major loss of coolant and a spill of 185 tonnes of heavy water. Emergency measures to cool the core averted a meltdown. 

The proposal would need to receive approval from the industry’s federal regulator, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC). ...

Pickering was initially expected to safely produce power for some 230,000 full power equivalent hours, which is equal to about 30 years of typical operation.  The CNSC upped that to 247,000 hours in 2014, and in 2018, when the CNSC approved the extension of Pickering’s life to 2024, it said its reactors could stretch that to a maximum of 295,000 hours.

A spokesperson for the regulator said it has not yet received notice that OPG intends to amend the terms of its licence. If and when such a notice is received, it would be reviewed by staff who would then make recommendations to the commission.

The application would also be subject to a public hearing “focused on safe operations and the protection of health, safety and environment,” senior communications advisor Isabelle Roy wrote in an email.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/01/15/news/critics-say-doug-fords-...

Like much of the Ford government's actions, it's claim to have increased education spending by $1.2 billion doesn't add up, with the total increase being actually far less, as childcare spending has been added to education spending. Furthermore, spending per student is actually down.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford's oft-repeated statement that his government is spending $1.2 billion more on education this year than last year doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

The spending claim is in the spotlight as a province-wide strike by four teachers' unions puts some two million Ontario students out of class on Friday. 

"We've increased education by $1.2 billion," Ford said in question period on Wednesday. "I know math is not the NDP's strength, or the Liberals', but it's $1.2 billion, more than any government in the history of Ontario." ...

Here are the basics of the government's math:

• $29.97 billion: the Ministry of Education's base budget for 2019-20, stated in the government's latest fiscal document, the fall economic statement. 
• $28.75 billion: the Ministry of Education's actual base spending for 2018-19, found in the government's expense sheet for the year, the public accounts.

That's a $1.2 billion difference on the face of it. But when you dig a little deeper into the spending, and compare apples to apples, it becomes apparent that the Ford government is not telling the whole truth. The bulk of that $1.2 billion extra is not destined for schools and classrooms. 

A key reason for the discrepancy is that the Education Ministry's overall budget also includes child-care programs. Nearly half of the $1.2 billion difference is accounted for by increased spending on child care, particularly $390 million budgeted for a new child-care tax credit. ...

Two thirds of the additional $186 million announced for the ministry's budget in November is allocated "to help municipal partners provide child-care programs."  

To find out just what the government is actually spending on the school system, you have to look beyond the Education Ministry's bottom line into the detailed budget documents. This means setting aside the $2.2 billion in child-care spending, as well as far smaller amounts on ministry administration and TVO.  ...

The real amount spent on schools is found in those documents, called the expenditure estimates, under one line labelled, "Elementary and secondary education program: Policy and program delivery."

• The amount budgeted in 2018-19 for this program was $25.029 billion.
• The amount budgeted for 2019-20 (including $64 million added last fall): $25.163 billion.
• The difference: about $133 million, far less than the $1.2 billion claimed by the Progressive  Conservatives. 

Another way of comparing school spending is to look at the province's annual "grants for student needs," which is the funding the ministry provides to school boards. The amount in 2019-20 is $24.66 billion, while the amount the previous year was $24.53 billion, an increase of about $130 million, or 0.5 per cent. 

When you factor in enrolment growth, the amount spent per student this year is actually down from the previous year. The per-pupil grant is $12,246, down from $12,300 in the 2018-19 school year. ...

"It's a shell game," said NDP education critic Marit Stiles.

"For the minister to try to present this as if he's somehow increasing funding by $1.2 billion, I think he is intentionally misleading Ontarians." 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-teachers-strike-education...

The Ford government is backtracking on another cut, this one to rape centers, which reflects its attitude towards women. I would say this was embarassing but Ford et al. don't give a damn about anyone outside their coterie, instead calling it a modernization of services. This was reflected in the fact that Minister Jill Dunlop did not directly answer questions about the cuts. 

 

Associate Minister of Children and Women’s Issues Jill Dunlop did not respond directly to questions from reporters about how rape crisis centres can use the funding or why the centres were told the funding boost was being cancelled just days earlier. (CBC)

The Ford government appears to be backtracking on a decision to cancel a funding boost for Ontario's rape crisis centres — just one day after advocates raised alarm bells that the move would result in a dramatic spike in wait times for sexual assault survivors seeking counselling and support.

On Wednesday, the Ontario Coalition of Rape Crisis Centres announced they were told directly by Attorney General Doug Downey last week that the $1 million in additional funding they received last year would not be renewed for 2020.

That funding was about a quarter of what the previous Liberal government had promised rape crisis centres — money that wasn't disbursed before the party lost power in the June 2018 provincial election. 

But on Thursday, Associate Minister of Children and Women's Issues Jill Dunlop announced in the legislature that the province would now commit to $2 million in annual funding in addition to the ongoing baseline $14.8 million that the centres receive each year.

The cash is "part of a broader modernization to provide better services to victims across Ontario," Dunlop told reporters at Queen's Park. ...

The minister did not respond directly to questions from reporters about how rape crisis centres can use the funding, nor did she address why the centres were told the funding boost was being cancelled just days earlier.

Dunlop did say that at the moment funding for the centres comes from a collection of government bodies the Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services, Office of Women's Issues, and the Ministry of the Attorney General. ...

"We're looking at how we can better work with the sector and the organizations that serve women, and cut the red tape in those areas but provide better services and supports to women," she said, adding there would be further announcements Friday. 

Deb Singh, and advocate and counsellor at the Toronto Rape Crisis Centre/Multicultural Women Against Rape, told CBC News on Wednesday that additional funding by the PCs last year reduced allowed the centre to hire three additional staff, bringing down wait times for victims seeking help from 18 months in the Fall of 2018 to six months by March 2020. ...

With that funding cancelled, she said those workers would have to be let go and that wait times would "absolutely" go up. So far, Singh says she has heard little about how the new funding will work but she worries there could be restrictions on how the money is used.  "It doesn't have to be as complicated as it is," Singh said Thursday. "Playing around with communications as to whether we're able to provide that reliable high-level services to survivors is not okay," she said.  "We really urge the government to be very clear about what this promise means in the house and to communicate with us so that we can provide the services to survivors across Ontario."

CBC News has asked the province for clarification whether the money will be restricted to any particular services and on when the decision on the additional funding was made. So far, there has been no response. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-sexual-assault-rape-centr...

The Ford government now faces strong headwinds in attempting to balance its budget as  the Covid-19 hits the province and its economy. 

As COVID-19 sends global stock markets and oil prices plunging, the Doug Ford government is bracing for the effects on Ontario's economy and the impact on the provincial budget, to be delivered in just two weeks.

The spread of the new coronavirus around the world has brought just 36 cases to Ontario so far, according to public health authorities, a far lower number than other more hard-hit jurisdictions.

Still, the premier is expressing worry about the potential economic fallout from COVID-19 as some countries restrict movement of large parts of the population, travellers decide against international trips, large gatherings such as conferences and sporting events are cancelled, and employees take precautionary sick days to avoid infection. 

"The area that I'm concerned is our economy with COVID-19," Ford said Monday in an unscripted comment at an event in Kitchener. The worst thing to do is put a scare out there," Ford added. "But we have to be cautious and we're all over this." He did not offer details of his economic concerns and was not available to take questions from reporters after the event. ...

RBC's 2020 economic outlook for Ontario — issued in December before the new coronavirus had spread beyond China, — suggested "the souring of the global trade environment" would be the chief drag on the province's economy. 

A year ago, Ford said in a speech: "The risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real." 

That didn't happen in 2019. But in 2020, the global economy may face the risk of a coronavirus recession, and Ontario could get swept along with it. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-doug-ford-coronavirus-bud...

The Ford government budget already has a giant hole in it. Its new spending plan is out-of-date a week after it was released as it was based on the fact that the Ontario economy would not shrink this year. 

As global stock markets crashed and much of the Canadian economy ground to a standstill amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Ford and his Finance Minister Rod Phillips had to start from scratch to sketch out a new spending plan, released Wednesday.  

The plan is full of caveats and careful wording, completely understandable given the circumstances. But underpinning all of the budget numbers is one key assumption: that the province's economy will not contract overall in the coming year —an assumption that could prove quite wrong. 

"The COVID-19 outbreak has had a negative impact on the global, Canadian and Ontario economies," says the document, stating the obvious. "The severity of the economic impact will depend on how widespread the outbreak becomes and how long it lasts." 

In other words, it's impossible to forecast what will happen to Ontario's economy over the next year, and the ripple effect on government revenues. But the government's spending plan must be based on forecasts, so the Ministry of Finance makes this one: that the province's GDP will neither grow nor shrink in 2020-21, but stay stagnant.  ...

A senior finance ministry official says that forecast was made last week, and was pegged slightly below the average growth rate predicted by private sector economists at that time. But a week is an eternity in the rapid-fire spread of COVID-19, and that forecast is already looking rosy. 

The major banks have issued new updates in the past few days, all predicting economic contraction in 2020. 

On Wednesday, Scotiabank revised downward its forecast for Ontario, predicting the province's economy will shrink by 5.6 per cent in 2020. Also Wednesday, TD issued a new forecast for the Canadian economy, a 4.2 per cent retraction. RBC's latest forecast came on Tuesday, calling for a 2.5 per cent drop in Canada's GDP.  ...

Here's the problem for Ontario's budget: its revenue predictions are already based on outdated forecasts. 

Some of the most optimistic assumptions in the fiscal plan are that COVID-19 will do relatively little to reduce government revenues in the coming year, compared with 2019-20. The fiscal update forecasts a 0.8 per cent drop in personal income tax revenues, meaning just $300 million less in provincial coffers, despite the widespread layoffs announced in the past few weeks. The government is predicting a 1.3 per cent drop in corporate tax revenue, just a $200 million hit to the treasury. ...

If the economy does contract in 2020, those tax revenues could be billions less, making the deficit far higher than the $20 billion already forecast. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-budget-spending-p...

Below is a list of everything Doug Ford cut or canelled during year one of the regime. 

Cancelled: The 10-year contract with the Beer Store

Queen’s Park passed the bill ending Ontario’s 10-year contract with the Beer Store on June 6. The contract was first signed in 2015 between the Liberal government and the Beer Store, which is owned by three multinational companies—Labatt, Molson and Sleeman. Under the agreement, with few exceptions, only the Beer Store can sell packs of beer larger than six-packs (not even the LCBO can) and beer is only available at a limited number of grocery stores. Ford wants to allow all convenience stores and grocery stores to make beer sales by cancelling the agreement, which the PCs argue will give people more convenience and choice when it comes to buying beer. However, the Beer Store argues the move will cost jobs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has warned Ontario against it for concerns of scaring investors and based on reports, breaking the contract could cost the province somewhere around $1 billion.

Frozen: Public sector wage increases at 1%

For the next three years, public sector jobs—such as university and hospital employees, for example—will have their annual wage increases limited to one percent. The recent average increase for public sector workers is currently reported at 1.6 percent, while Statistics Canada says inflation is at two percent. Treasury Board president Peter Bethlenfalvy says the move is “protecting jobs” by “ensuring sustainability of government programs and services.” Meanwhile, union leaders are concerned that the wage cap will threaten their bargaining power—the announcement came after the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation and the Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario began their bargaining processes. ...

Proposed: An end to building height limits in Toronto

Toronto is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States and Canada and to accommodate that growth, the provincial government wants to override the city’s existing development plans, which are based on years of work and consultations. They’ve proposed revisions that would increase height restrictions on buildings in some parts of the city and allow high-rises to be built in more parts of downtown and midtown. Mayor John Tory called out the premier for again not consulting with the city before proposing changes. City councillors raised concerns that the province’s plan would favour developers, and would not foster sustainable development.

Reversed: Half a billion dollars in municipal funding

On the morning of May 27, Ford announced he would be backpedalling on several recent funding cuts that had hit municipalities after their 2019 budgets were finalized. According to CBC, “Ford has reversed this year’s cuts to municipal funding, including child care, public health and [ambulance services], but future cuts will continue as planned.”

Unsurprisingly, many of Ontario’s mayors, including Toronto mayor John Tory, had criticized these cuts, which the City of Toronto said amounted to $177 million in 2019. Officials in London, Ont. estimated their budget had been slashed by $4 million, and in Ottawa, the shortfall was also in the “millions.”

And Ontarians weren’t happy, either. Last week, CityTv reported that a new poll found Ford’s popularity had “fallen even lower than Kathleen Wynne’s before the last election.” (His net favourability rating is currently -53.5%, while Wynne’s was -35.3% in April 2018.) And a second poll by Ipsos found only “three in ten people approve of what the PC government has been doing since it took office last June, with men showing stronger support for Ford than women.”

While this announcement is good news, the cuts may only be reversed for now. This morning, Ford told reporters: “We’ve come up with a conclusion that we’re going to work together. We’re going to maintain the funding throughout this year. Every mayor I talked to said they can find savings. So that’s good news. But they said they needed more runway.”

Eliminated: An Ontario Arts Council-funded Indigenous Culture Fund

The Ontario government is cutting tens of millions of dollars in funding to the province’s arts sector, including a recently established Indigenous Culture Fund. According to CTV, “culture programs are budgeted at $235 million this year, down from nearly $295 million last year, including cutting ‘arts sector support’ from $18.5 million to $6.5 million.” The Ontario Arts Council specifically is receiving $10 million less in funding this year, and, as the Globe & Mail reports, half of that “comes from axing an Indigenous Culture Fund.”

Proposed: Ending the Transition Child Benefit

On May 26, the Toronto Star reported on yet another cut that was buried in April’s provincial government, this one to social services for families with low incomes. As of November 1, Ford’s government plans to eliminate the Transition Child Benefit, which “helps families on welfare feed and clothe their kids.” It provides up to $230 per month, per child for families who receive welfare, but don’t receive the Canada or Ontario Child Benefit. Read: parents who have recently lost their jobs or refugee claimants who have been in Canada for less than 18 months.

According to a May 9 memo from Toronto city manager Chris Murphy, “Toronto’s family shelter system may experience increased demand from families who lose TCB and become unable to secure or maintain their housing.” The Star says critics are characterizing this cut as the “‘nastiest’ attack on children.”

Cut: Millions to artificial intelligence research

The Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) have put Canada on the world map for AI research, with the Vector Institute founded in part to attract innovators to Toronto and away from Silicon Valley. However, the Toronto Star reported on May 19 that the Ford government is cutting $20 million from the Vector Institute and $4 million from CIFAR, despite advice that supporting AI research will create jobs in Ontario. Vector confirmed that the cuts will not affect jobs at the institute and CIFAR will continue to receive funding from “the federal government and private sector sponsors,” according to the Star.  

Cut: 70% of provincial funding to the Anishinabek/Ontario Fisheries Resource Centre

On May 17, the National Observer reported that the government cut 70% of its funding to the Anishinabek/Ontario Fisheries Resource Centre (A/OFRC). The centre is responsible for providing non-partisan scientific information to help First Nations manage their natural resources and protect endangered wildlife. Funding came from the Transfer Payment Agreement, which was created to help First Nations work with the government to make conservation decisions. The A/OFRC’s budget is now $250,000—down from $860,000. Their staff was not informed about the cuts until April 12 and their fiscal year is already underway, leaving the organization “scrambling” to seek alternate funding and keep their projects going. The cuts are the result of Ford’s government doubling down on Transfer Payments, because an auditlast September said that it is an area that they “can exert the strongest control.”

Cut: Annual funding for stem cell research

The Ontario Institute for Regenerative Medicine is losing its annual $5 million in funding from the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, beginning next March. According to the government, scientists can just look for private funding, but researchers told CBC that private investment comes at the “late phase” of studies. During the early stages of research, government grants are crucial.

Cut: An unclear amount of funding from violence against women shelter services

On May 14, the Toronto Star reported on MPP Randy Hillier asking Community and Social Services Minister Lisa MacLeod about why “women’s shelters and supports for victims of violence” saw $17 million cut from their funding since last year’s spending estimates.

Although last year’s estimates under the Liberal government stood at $172,123,400 and this year’s estimates are at $155,037,300, the ministry told FLARE in an email that, “The government’s actual spend from the previous year shows an increased investment in violence prevention initiatives this year—roughly a 2 per cent increase.” They also said that “the [$17 million] figure is not accurate as it isn’t based on what was actually spent last year,” referring to MacLeod’s rebuttal to Hillier that the alleged cuts are not the result of actual changes in funding. Instead, MacLeod told Hillier that they come from “the elimination of unfunded and unallocated resources from the Liberal campaign budget,” calling the numbers “a fictitious budget.”

The controversy comes shortly after a new national study led by Women’s Shelters Canada found that one in five shelters (out of 400 polled) have not had a funding increase in at least ten years, there are major gaps between urban and remote community support and that shelters are turning away increasingly more people. The uncertainty over whether Violence Against Women (VAW) supports are losing funding is already having concrete effects on shelters—CTV reported that Windsor’s Hiatus House, for example, cut six of its beds and their executive director points out that they haven’t had a budget increase in ten years.

Hillier’s questions also drew attention from other politicians including Toronto city councillor Paul Ainslie, who wrote a public letter to MacLeod, urging her to reconsider the changes. “As a result, our city staff advise we can expect a service gap for women and their children who have experience violence, are housing vulnerable and require the critical services VAW services provide,” he wrote.

Proposed: Phasing out Ontario’s enhanced driver’s license program

On May 14, the provincial government announced a proposal to eliminate Ontario’s enhanced drivers licenses, which allow Canadians to enter the U.S. at land and water crossings without a passport. According to the Star, this option was introduced in 2009, but “hasn’t seen the anticipated uptake.” (Ministry of Transportation spokesperson Bob Nichols says only 60,000 out of 10.2 million Ontario drivers currently have an enhanced license.) The program brings in $182,000 in revenue, and eliminating it will save the province about $100,000 in administrative costs—and, Nichols says travellers have several other options for easy border crossings, including NEXUS, FAST and ePassports.

Cut: Health policy and research funding

In addition to consolidating the province’s healthcare, which resulted in funding cuts, the Ford government is also cutting research funding. Health policy and research will see a $52 million total reduction in funding, including a significant cut to the Health System Research Fund, which contributes research for provincial policy-making.

And Gambling Research Exchange Ontario, which researches problem gambling, is facing a $2.5 million cut. As a result, the organization will shut down by mid-July. The Ford government says that this cut comes from efforts to increase front-line services, but the logic is confusing as the organization and its research provided resources to front-line workers. As the CBC points out, this move comes just as the PC party plans to allow free alcohol in casinos and to expand online gambling.

Cut: The Ministry of Labour’s prevention office budget

The prevention office, which is responsible for preventing workplace injuries, death and other occupational health hazards, is losing $16 million from its budget. But as the Toronto Star reported, the office is funded by the workers’ compensation board—not taxpayers—so it “does not impact the government’s bottom line.” Health and safety associations will also be impacted (they’re losing $12 million from their budgets) as well as occupational hazard research. Critics told the Star that the cuts will hurt workers, as fewer funds go to potentially life-saving research, work safety education and aid in accessing workers’ compensation, among other programs.

Cut: Tourism budget for Ottawa and Toronto

Ottawa Tourism and Tourism Toronto reported that they are losing all of their provincial funding, with Ottawa out $3.4 million and Toronto out $13 million. Toronto Mayor John Tory pointed out that tourists bring in tax revenue for the province, not the cities, and called the move “bad for Ontario.” The minister of tourism, culture and sport said that the government has a new tourism strategy on its way.

Cut: Tech startup funds

Innovation and startup companies are facing cuts in funding, which has critics concerned that jobs may move out of the province. Critics told the CBC that the government grants boosted the province’s growing digital economy. They’re concerned this could make Ontario less competitive, as companies worry that they may see staffing changes (read: potential layoffs). There are also concerns that the timing of the cuts could greatly impact young people searching for summer jobs.

Proposed: A $46-million decrease in spending for the OPP

In the government’s expenditure estimates for the year, there is a $46 million decrease in spending for the Ontario Provincial Police, most of which come from “field and traffic services.” The press secretary and issues manager for the office of the Solicitor General says that no jobs will be lost. Meanwhile, the opposition party has raised concerns about the funding cut coming after the PCs recently announced raising speed limits to 110 kilometres an hour for sections of three 400-series highways.

https://www.chatelaine.com/living/politics/doug-ford-cuts/