No polls yet have come out since the impact of the wildfire season has been felt. Looking at the reception that Morrison had in that moment, I wonder if he's had his "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" moment.
The real fear is that Morrison will be made to walk the plank for this, and his government manages to choose someone else and that gives the government a new lease on life. Anybody more familiar with Australian politics who can weigh in?
In a poll released today, Scott Morrison has "suffered a massive hit to his personal approval rating and been overtaken as preferred prime minister by Anthony Albanese in the first published opinion poll of 2020." However, the margin between Labour and the Liberals is very close suggesting the the Liberals may be tempted to change leaders before an election.
The Newspoll, published on Monday, confirms that a horror summer in which Morrison chose to holiday in Hawaii during the extended bushfire crisis that has claimed 28 lives and more than 2,000 homes, and fumbled meetings with victims, has significantly impacted his popularity.
On Monday Labor stepped up its attack on Morrison, with deputy leader Richard Marles suggesting the prime minister’s performance through the crisis had shown he was “loose with the truth” and “disinterested in the national interest”.
The poll of 1,505 voters, conducted between Wednesday and Saturday, found more voters (59%) are dissatisfied with Morrison’s performance than satisfied (37%).
Satisfaction in Morrison fell eight points and dissatisfaction increased by 11 points, both movements outside the poll’s margin of error of 2.5%. Just 4% of voters were “uncommitted” when asked how Morrison is performing.
Albanese is in positive territory after a six-point increase in satisfaction from 40% to 46% and dissatisfaction falling from 41% to 37%.
He leads Morrison as preferred prime minister, 43% to 39%, the first time he has done so since taking the Labor leadership after Bill Shorten’s shock loss at the May 2019 election.
Morrison dropped nine points as preferred prime minister while Albanese increased by nine points, reversing Morrison’s lead of 14 points in the last poll, taken in the first week of December, to trail by four points.
The Coalition suffered a two-point drop in primary vote to 40% while Labor recovered by three points to 36%. In two-party-preferred terms Labor lead the Coalition 51% to 49%.
The pollster Kevin Bonham said Morrison’s plunge from 14 points ahead as preferred prime minister to four behind is “the equal second highest such loss in Newspoll history”, after Paul Keating’s 23% drop against John Hewson after the horror 1993 budget.
He also said it was “highly unusual” for the current prime minister to trail the opposition leader on preferred prime minister when the two-party-preferred margin was narrow. ...
But Morrison’s horror summer – in which he was heckled by survivors in Cobargo, New South Wales – continued with the revelation that the NSW Rural Fire Service commissioner had not been informed of the compulsory callout and an embarrassing gaffe in which Morrison claimed nobody had died on Kangaroo Island where, in fact, two people were killed.
On Sunday Morrison acknowledged that he “could have handled on the ground much better” in the “strained” emotional environment of firegrounds. ...
(Deputy Labor Leader) Richard Marles took issue with Morrison’s suggestion that “moments of national crisis are a state issue and previously there hasn’t been an expectation of commonwealth involvement”. He told reporters in Melbourne it was “patently wrong”, citing the Rudd Labor government’s involvement in the Black Saturday bushfires. ...
Doubts have been raised about the Australian government’s ability to meet its Paris targets of 26% to 28% emissions reduction by 2030, with the use of carryover credits criticised as an “accounting trick” that may add up to as much as 80% of Australia’s emission reduction achievement.
The former head of Morrison’s department, Martin Parkinson, has blamed “civil war” within the Coalition for the government not developing a more ambitious climate policy, warning that global efforts were insufficient to halt warming at 2C.
Marles accused Morrison of “running away from the country without telling anyone”, “literally forcing people to shake his hand” rather than showing empathy, and being “incredibly slow” to involve the Australian Defence Force. Marles also blasted Morrison for filming an ad to promote the government’s disaster recovery efforts, suggesting it showed “panic” – not on behalf of the nation, but for his own image.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/13/scott-morrison-su...
The more shocking thing is that they are close even with all that is going on. The Liberal party ought to be in single digits and they are not. This is a sad reflection that even as the consequences of climate change become painfully clear the politics of denial is still extremly strong.
Remember that leadership approval is a leading indicator, whereas party support is a lagging indicator. Despite the Coalition trailing Labor in almost every poll from 2016-2019, Shorten lost most head-to-head polling match-ups on the best PM question with Scott Morrison. That's why the Coalition victory should not have come as a surprise. It's early days, but Albanese's numbers seem to have risen. If they stay high, and if he keeps winning head-to-head matchups against Morrison or whoever else the coalition puts up, then the Coalition will be defeated in the next election. One thing Albanese needs to do is put forward a clear and consistent climate change plan. That was one thing that sank his predecessor Bill Shorten. Shorten, among other problems, didn't take a clear position on the Adani coal mine, and that hurt him. It's one of those issues where there is no middle ground. It either goes through or it doesn't, and people will be angry about it either way.