Coronavirus: what Canadians need to know

Here are some facts about an important story, enough conjecture about migrating birds without any links or quotes.

With this in mind, researchers at Wuhan University have been looking for an animal source of the new virus. They performed a genetic analysis of the virus and looked for similarities with genetic information from other kinds of viruses and potential host species. They concluded that the virus likely formed from an unknown coronavirus combining with another coronavirus usually found in bats. The resulting virus can attach itself to receptors on the cells of host animals, making it an infectious disease.

But while bats are partly to blame, a more slippery critter has been harboring the virus. The first reported cases of 2019-nCoV were linked to workers at a market in Wuhan that sells various different animals for food, including wild animals like snakes. The team thinks that snakes acted as a reservoir for the virus and transmitted it to humans. Now, it is being passed from human to human. The findings are reported in the Journal of Medical Virology.

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/china-s-deadly-coronaviru...

Great information that is all outdated. Your newest source is 2018. I don't know what your problem is I just posted a good quote that was fully cited and sourced and current to today not years ago.

I'm sorry Sean but in the Iran threads you insisted that people should not make any kind of speculation despite the fact that their speculation was about things that had already occurred in similar but not exactly the same circumstances. I thought that was an absurd idea because I come here to chat about current events in the international sphere and speculation is part of the fun and process.

Then you post speculation about a deadly virus that is similar but in fact not the same as the ones you have read about and your information turned out to false and misleading in this instance but of course not in  instances of "avian" flu unlike the coronavirus that has currently broken out in China.

Please stop trying to control the debate and I promise to stop mocking your inconsistencies.

Yes the thing he posted was useful. It did not require him to demand that the comment I made needed to be sourced since there are many sources to that information and what I had said was more appicable to the ongoing issue of viruses coming from China. My information was general comment from before the infomration he came up with was available. This information came later when the news got specific.

My comment was fair comment of a general nature realted to these outbreaks but attacked by him as is his habit. I did not go back and forth across this board trying to needle him today to pick a fight. That is his other contribution to the board.  He could have put up his post of infomration and left it at that. 

Interesting. What would make this region different than others like it?

I had read something like this about parts of Greenland and viruses that were not truly ancient but from 1000 years ago. I also wonder what risk Canada and Russia have considering that both have the issue of trapped CO2 from decaying matter (I assume mostly plant matter?).

I wish the article spoke to whether these viruses were stored from human activity or animal activity. How did these get into the glacier?

Now it seems that people are considering that the issue of what people eat in China is central to the risk this time. Do you think this is fair or an attempt to smear China? The material speaking about viruses passed through bats being eaten, is the proof overwhelming?

All that said, it is true with the issues I raised that China has considerable experience with pathogens. Even if this one is not from bird migration, you would think the Chinese ought to have enough skill from previous outbreaks to help in this one.

BTW I used to know people from Wuhan. I cannot help but think about its geographical location downstream from the Three Gorges dam. This dam, if anything went wrong is just so large that it would be catastrophic for Wuhan. This is one of those places I would not want to live even though there are many places world wide where there is this background risk of catastrophe. Like major earthquake zones.

Also China is now quarantining more cities: Huanggang, Ezhou, and Chiba

https://futurism.com/neoscope/google-3d-map-fruit-fly-brain

I am skeptical of the point that we see many medical experts making: they say that quarantine does not reduce an outbreak and that it is unhelpful only scaring residents. To this I have three thoughts but not any links or science to back this up.

First -- wouldn't people be scared just as much wihtout the quarantine in China after SARs?

Second -- wouldn't some fear help reduce travel and work to delay the virus substantively?

Third -- those critical of quarantine say that it only delays things. If little is known about an outbreak and they need time to study it -- wouldn't a delay actually offer a theraputic benefit to many people?

I am wondering if there is not a bias against the Chinese decision as a part of a confirmation bias: since we cannot in our countries quarantine like that (for legal reason - they say you can only do that in a country with more central control) -- could it be that there is a desire to say well we would not want to do it anyway? 

China is a country as I said above that has a lot of experience with outbreaks. I doubt they would undertake quarantine unless they had a fairly sound scientific basis for it. I am thinking that it buying time may be the reason.

Another point: if they are still experimenting with treatment -- these experiments are harder to rerpoduce across an entire country. If they can delay it long enough to arrive at the correct treatment then they would be better able to roll it out everywhere. This does not eman that they are not aware that there will not be cases anywhere but that they expect to reduce the volume of them keeping the initial cases more localized than they would be without a quarantine.

I am not a scientist but I find that there is some unanswered obvious logic to a benefit in slowing the spread if quarantine will do that (even if it does nothing else)

I read this morning a report that contradicts this and makes the decision not to decare a global emergency a big problem.

This article you posted is where most of the media have been. It also reflects the national border tests -- temperature tests to see who has fever.

New reports have come out saying that it is at least at time without symptoms and people infected and carrying the disease may have no fever or any way of knowing they have it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-infections-no-symptoms-lancet-studies/

this means that testing is not a means to prevent the disease -- only isolation. However, it is very possible that we are well past the time when isolation or even the tracing of cases is possible.

Other reports show this disease with a moderate death rate. A disease with a lower death rate and that can present without symptoms is far more dangerous in the long term as it can spread while a higher death rate may restrict much of the spreading.

NDPP -- are you finding any stories on this now?

Also there are many reports of the Chinese systems being overwhelmed. China is a big country with a great deal of resources and experience. However, this is not the kind of situation a country should be fighting by itself. The world should be moving resources to combat this. I am not sure how much of this is being done without a global declaration. I thin the concern about asympomatic transmission should be enough along with several countries detecting cases. The US says they are examining dozens of potential cases with at least two confirmed (last I looked).

In Canada, I am not sure that our front line healthworkers have the support from their provincial governments to be ready. I suspect that is not the case.

Many reports related to the mayor of Wuhan offering to resign/being under pressure to do so / admitting mistakes and delays reporting. Other news that has been circulating are models that indicate that this may have been going on as early as October. People who wanted to report it publicly were arrested. The Chinese government admitted the problem officially at the end of December when many are saying it is too late. In other news a state media source is being accused in China of publishing a picture of the hospital that was actually a real estate listing of an apartment block.

Certainly it is difficult to know which of all this is true given biases against China however much of this originates within China itself. No doubt it will be used and coloured in the Western media but it appears as if there are good reasons to think there is cause to citicize Chinese government action as well.

Meanwhile, there are many reports that Western governments, as I said early, are mishandling this. A doctor who was in Wuhan cannot get himself tested in the UK due to incompetence it seems on the part of authorities there, notices were provided to passengers in the UK that were not translated to Chinese. Canada had no screening at airports long after they knew. Governments world over appear to be minimizing the danger and offering false assurances. 

The WHO is being accused of either being intimidated by China (directly or indirectly depending on who you hear from) or so slow that any declaration of a global emergency will come far too late.

This virus apparently now, multiple reports say, transmits from people without symptoms.

Every country in the world appears unprepared and to be pretending they are able to deal with this threat. None can offer any mechanism other than what is being discredited for this outbreatk (temperature screening). It is possible that Canada is not screening becuase they know they can't and simply telling people all will be okay.

Also there are reports questioning the source of the virus. Some site (I have not seen any credible reports including evidence) are claiming a research accident. Others that it may have a completely different source. Everyone is just guessing now given apparent proof that this virus dates back before any of the patient zero assumptions and  a large number of people in the initial group had no connection the the market deemed earlier as the cause. The assumption of animals (snakes or whatever) are also guesses as they really do not know.

At the end of the day, it seems that the Chinese government may not have been as up front and as claimed and may not be handling this as well as some people want to believe. Some of these stories about fast response and planning may be concealing much longer timelines. At the same time, there is no reason to have any more faith in either the honesty and competence of any government in the world.

As usual when shit happens that governments cannot deal with the reaction is to lie and this is universal and beyond politics or systems of governments. If such a calamity happened in Canada there is no indication that it would be better managed here: in fact divisions and politics between jurisdictions (provincial vs each other and vs feds) might mean that it would be handled worse. I do not think we are being told the truth either.

So good luck everyone. Pelase do not believe any delusion that there is any govenrment on your side, doing the right thing, or being honest. They are managing their interests first and you second. All of them.

this should not be a political football here where people compete for loyalty to one government, country or type of government pretending that they really are better. Truth is they are different but probably equally unprepared.

China is no more honest than here. It does tend to big gestures and plans but there is little indication that they are all that much more reliable than the crap we have here. 

The Chinese government is clearly desperate and is managing this politically first to manage opinion. And do not think for a second that the response from here is much different. Politics will come first.

Some epidemiologists speculating 100,000 people may have it in China and there is no chance of containment there.

I see no reason to be trusting authorities here or there with their assurances.

This clearly shows a failure of the Chinese government. Those authoritarians can't be trusted, hell they have even messed up Canada's response, again.

Oh krop please stop with your obsessive nonsense

GTA private schools issue warning after parents say they were on same flight as coronavirus patient

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/gta-private-schools-issue-warning-after-parents-say-they-were-on-same-flight-as-coronavirus-patient-1.4785565

This is seems like a good news story. The best way to beat an epidemic is by citizens themselves being smart and self quarantining and not believing that a government is completely responsible for anything. I think that for people in TO the SARS epidemic has really taught them some basics about public health and hopefully it will take the R0 factor below 1.

Earlier this week, the principal of Richmond Hill Montessori School (RHMS), located near Yonge Street and 16th Avenue, issued an “emergency order” asking any families who have travelled to China to keep their child home for 15 days after they return to Toronto.

“Kindly note, the same 15 day quarantine applies to any RHMS family who may have come in contact with individuals travelling to Toronto from China or any other countries or cities to be known to have confirmed Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases.”

On Sunday, the day after the first possible case of 2019-nCoV was made public, the principal issued a statement saying that a parent of a child at the school was on the same flight as both patients—China Southern Airlines flight CZ311.

“Since then, members of this family have been at RHMS despite our Emergency Order. This parent is not the person being held at Sunnybrook Hospital,” the letter said.

“Please be advised that although this parent was on the same flight, the family has informed us that this parent does not show any symptoms as of this time. We have been advised that this parent has quarantined themselves away from their immediate family and that the family has also quarantined themselves until Feb. 07, 2020 as a precaution.”