A few days ago around 60% of the cases in China were in Hubei province. Now it's around 70%:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Make of that what you will. Also, can the thread title be changed so Wuhan is spelled correctly? And are two threads needed?
A few days ago around 60% of the cases in China were in Hubei province. Now it's around 70%:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Make of that what you will. Also, can the thread title be changed so Wuhan is spelled correctly? And are two threads needed?
I think may be he much of it without many more answered questions.
I heard only the Hubei cases were released today -- at least that was the case a few hours ago. If true then the percentage may have not changed so much as and the rest is just behind.
The other reason is more important:
I predict that the number of cases announced in China will increase dramatically very soon. The reason may not even be related to an increase. China is adopting a policy of mandatory checks. This means that the people who are diagnosed will include many with mild to no symptoms and who had not previously gone to a doctor. the reason for this is also a policy of mandatory quarantine. Hubei probably already has a higher rate of testing for people who are not very ill than anywhere else in the world.
If mandatory testing exists in Hubei then the percentage of diagnosed cases that are from there will increase.
I suggested earlier here that this virus may turn out to be not very deadly once they count all the people who now are not diagnosed. What is unclear is why it kills some and not others. It is different than SARS in the fact that comprimised people are dying but many healthy people are barely getting sick. Increasingly this may look like a bad flu.
Meanwhile this:
In a major lapse, 24-day delay in isolating Rajasthan students from Wuhan
Coronavirus: WHO chief warns against 'trolls and conspiracy theories'
Russia's Channel One, for example, has been airing coronavirus conspiracy theories on its prime-time evening news show Vremya (meaning "Time"). In one segment, the host links the virus to US President Donald Trump, and claims that US intelligence agencies or pharmaceutical companies are behind it.
Another debunked conspiracy theory, published in British and US tabloid media, linked the virus to a video of a Chinese woman eating bat soup.
Reports claimed the clip was filmed in Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus, when the outbreak was first reported. However it was filmed in 2016 and was in Palau, in the western Pacific Ocean - not China.
And a now-widely-discredited scientific study released last month linked the new coronavirus to snakes - leading to global headlines discussing the spread of "snake flu".
Coronavirus: WHO chief warns against 'trolls and conspiracy theories'
This is a good article highlighting Canada's racist nature. Thank heavens for media like Al Jeezera that are willing publish pieces that put a mirror up to us to show us who we are. I know that some times I get prickly about the anti-Chinese racism built into our Canadian discourse on issues but this article tells me that the fight needs to continue.
Shortly after the first Canadian case of the new coronavirus was announced in January, David Shao, a healthcare worker from Winnipeg, the capital of Manitoba province, was taunted by colleagues to go home and stop "spreading the virus". He was not sick; he was, however, the only Chinese person in his workplace.
...
In the late 19th century, in Canada, it was not uncommon for white-owned restaurants to advertise that they did not employ Chinese workers. One such restaurant in the city of Victoria claimed, "the stomach of a person of refined tastes must revolt at the mere idea that his dinner has been cooked by a Chinaman," shortly after replacing its Chinese cooks with Germans.
...
Our organisation, the Chinese Canadian National Council Toronto Chapter, continues to receive numerous emails, phone calls and social media messages blaming Chinese people for the virus. In a classic case of victim blaming, we even got accused in an email of inflaming societal divisions by publicly confronting racism.
It is clear to us that conjuring century-old stereotypes about Chinese people will not help Canadians stay safe from the coronavirus. It could, however, break communities.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/sinophobia-won-save-coronaviru...
Fake News Goes Coronaviral
It sows division just when we need to pull together with, yes, China. How to spot a lie.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/02/07/Fake-News-Coronavirus-Sows-Division/
How To Yellow-Cake A Tragedy: The NY Times Spreads The Virus of Hatred Again
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/02/11/how-to-yellow-cake-a-tragedy-the...
"...Instead of voicing support or encouraging solidarity - 'We Are Wuhan' - western corporate media have chosen to go all out to criticize and demonize China, sparing no effort to recycle and rekindle ugly, racist, orientalist, and dehumanizing tropes, using any perceived misstep, pretext and shortcoming to tar China and the Chinese..."
Sound familiar?
The numbers are skyrocketing!
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/84698
The numbers are skyrocketing!
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/84698
Of course this is the diagnosis rate not the illness rate. China is now doing mandatory testing. It could be that this spike is due to that. Not more with it but more tested.
Still, it is less likely that this can be contained. It may come here or it may be choked off by warmer weather (some say that warm weather could kill it).
So here is a question:
Forced testing and quarantine is something Canadians often like to think are authoritarian and illegal here. So if infections come to Canada in this scale - at what point will there be demand for this? What emergency powers are available and would the law allow them?
There is a lot of pushback on anti-vaxers due to the dangers to the population of not getting vacinated. At what point is this similar?
How do people feel *here* about mandatory testing? I can go first and say that I think this is something that if there is a scientific basis for it I can support it. We are not individuals in this sense. We are collectively provided health care. I do not think an individual should be able to opt out and infect any more than I think individuals should be able to refuse a vaccine and infect people.
We hope it does not become necessary here but I also hope that if it does that we find the collective ability to respond efficiently.
The System for Diagnosing Epidemics Is Failing
Rapid testing is crucial in stopping the spread of diseases like the coronavirus, and we’re not up to the task.
Let's stick to the scientific facts
Why the coronavirus outbreak might be much bigger than we know
What the situation in countries like Singapore and the US tells us about the risk of global spread.
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/14/21134473/coronavirus-outbreak-singapore-us-symptoms-pandemic
How the New Coronavirus Spreads and Progresses – And Why One Test May Not Be Enough
China’s Chernobyl Never Seems to Arise
Democracy is unlikely to break out in Beijing, but the coronavirus crisis may create an opening for a softer form of authoritarianism.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-wont-be-chinas-chernobyl/606673/
What a huge challenge to try and arrest the growth of the COVID-19 outbreak because you can pass it on to someone else before you exhibit the symptons yourself.
What are airports actually doing to stop the spread of COVID-19?
Airlines, officials trace path of couple diagnosed with coronavirus that flew from Hawaii
What a huge challenge to try and arrest the growth of the COVID-19 outbreak because you can pass it on to someone else before you exhibit the symptons yourself.
What are airports actually doing to stop the spread of COVID-19?
Airlines, officials trace path of couple diagnosed with coronavirus that flew from Hawaii
Of course once you consider this you realize that the infection rate is much higher. This means the illness and death rate is lower.
Something to consider.
That's true, although since I started following the stats, the published death rate has remained consistently around 2.5%
The John Hopkins' numbers have skyrocketed this week, closing in on 72,000 cases now, 98% of which are in Mainland China. Is that a good containment rate? It must be absolute hell living in Wuhan presently.
That's true, although since I started following the stats, the published death rate has remained consistently around 2.5%
The John Hopkins' numbers have skyrocketed this week, closing in on 72,000 cases now, 98% of which are in Mainland China. Is that a good containment rate? It must be absolute hell living in Wuhan presently.
The death rate is among those who have been tested -- and would be expected to go up as outcomes become clear unless more are being infected which is the case. It is a reflection of the development of the outcomes vs the number coming in.
Think of it this way: on the real day one nobody died. But as more diseases progressed in people the rate went up. To keep it down more people got infected and were at the early stage.
This is why the death rate is largel meaningless since we do not have a constant in the mean number of days people have had the disease which goes down due to new infections and would go up as new infections are a lower percentage of the infections.
That's true, although since I started following the stats, the published death rate has remained consistently around 2.5%
The John Hopkins' numbers have skyrocketed this week, closing in on 72,000 cases now, 98% of which are in Mainland China. Is that a good containment rate? It must be absolute hell living in Wuhan presently.
It looks like they made a mistake today. They had been counting the 454 on the Diamond Privcess as "Other". They added "The Diamond Princess" but still kept "Other", so it was double counted. In other words, they have 454 more reported cases outside of China than what is true (click on confirmed cases by City/Province/State).
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
At what point do we need to stop mass gatherings like hockey games and shopping at Loblaws?
Tokyo has now drastically reduced the number of marathon participants and cancelled the Emperor's birthday celebrations.
At what point do we need to stop mass gatherings like hockey games and shopping at Loblaws?
Tokyo has now drastically reduced the number of marathon participants and cancelled the Emperor's birthday celebrations.
Once we have established the following:
1) That the virus is present in significant numbers and is being contracted here -- so perhaps some clusters of hundreds of people with it with people having contracted it here
2) That the virus represents a significant threat to the lives of healthy people -- compromised people would be recommended to avoid such gatherings before this
At the moment there is little threat given that there is no current record of either clusters of cases here, transmission here, or significant illness here. Naturally this could come but it is now restricted to a handful of cases identified and under self quarantine.
It is possible that this disease will turn out to be very serious but still take long enough before arriving here that hot weather prevents transmission as it likes cooler temperatures. Therefore there is no indication that it will get here in major numbers.
My suspicion is that it will get here and be like a bad flu but still be unlikely to disrupt. The fact that Canada has a universal health system is certainly important in response.
My greatest fear for Canada remains the risk to front-line health workers and unless this takes hold in the gen pop it is unlikely to go further than that. My greatest fear for the world is that this will take hold in developing countries without the means to protect their populations and many people will suffer and die. Unfortunately, it is the same story about poorer vulnerable people paying the highest cost.
There is an obviously emerging risk to the global economy -- which also means some countries' political stability.
The most important move Canada could take right now is to increase financial contributions to global health in light of the recent decrease of the US and the obvious global need. This both is in the long term interest of Canadians and the interest of the globe. As well Canada can invest in research as this country does not invest enough in medical research. As well Canada can seek greater protection and preparations for health workers -- nurses, doctors, hospital employees, The equipment must be in place along with the protocols required to protect them. the public should probably calm down and focus on the present flu epidemic which is here right now.
Here's how long coronaviruses may linger on contaminated surfaces, according to science
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/17/health/novel-coronavirus-surfaces-study/index.html
Up to 9 days!
Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents
Summary
Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, temporary named 2019-nCoV, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext
Of the people who have died from COVID-19 I wonder how many are health care workers?
Coronavirus: An Economic Pandemic?
How COVID-19 could alter Canada’s oil and gas industry, tourism, education, and public health.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/02/18/COVID-19-Hurts-BC-Economy/
73,451
Live updates: Director of Wuhan hospital dies of coronavirus as infections mount in China
China's handling of coronavirus is a diplomatic challenge for WHO
Beijing’s draconian measures to contain outbreak have delayed global transmission
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/china-coronavirus-who-diplomatic-challenge
Experts call for global ban on live animal markets, wildlife trade amidst coronavirus outbreak
75,191
B.C.’s first confirmed COVID-19 patient has fully recovered, say health officials
https://globalnews.ca/news/6568792/b-c-health-officials-update-covid-19/
China’s virus center vows to find every infected person as reported cases fall
Are these folks credible?
Keiser Report: #CoronaVirus Rally
"Max and Stacy discuss the markets rallying on horrible coronavirus news as bad news continues to be the greatest news of all as investors bet that the central bank will come to the rescue with more free cash..."
Everything is a conspiracy, eh!
Keiser Report: #CoronaVirus Rally
"Max and Stacy discuss the markets rallying on horrible coronavirus news as bad news continues to be the greatest news of all as investors bet that the central bank will come to the rescue with more free cash..."
Scientists ‘strongly condemn’ rumors and conspiracy theories about origin of coronavirus outbreak
How does the new coronavirus spread? These new studies offer clues.
They also show why Covid-19 might be harder to contain than SARS.
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how
How does the new coronavirus spread? These new studies offer clues.
They also show why Covid-19 might be harder to contain than SARS.
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/20/21143785/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-transmission-how
It is likely that the spread cannot be stopped. The defence may have nothing to do with prevention of contact. Instead it may be about having a robust and capable diagnosis and health care system and in terms of protecting underlying health. Certainly this means that it is like many health issues an issue of income class.
Protection of the most vulnerable may be possible as they are often already frail people who have more managed contact.
The second group will be those with heart and diabetes issues. Protection would come from making sure these conditions are very well being taken care of. We are hearing that those with undiagnosed, uncared for conditions are at significant risk.
If youa re worried for yourself -- consider making sure that all your present conditions are well taken care of. The great thing is this also offers some prevention against flu deaths and the flu is already here.
Good!
Statement in support of the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China combatting COVID-19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
76,775
The latest BCer to get COVID-19 visited Iran, not China
New Canadian coronavirus patient never went to China, but had visited Iran
76,775
The latest BCer to get COVID-19 visited Iran, not China
There is a lot of evidence that the Iranian government is lying about the outbreak. They are also holding elections. Sadly many ordinary Iranians will pay for this.
I suspect that this is the thin edge of the wedge and that many countries are either lying about the outbreak or simply do not know.
Farsi news is reporting different numbers being shared by the regime in conversations with even other countries like Turkey. The numbers are not believable -- saying only 5 sick with two dead who did not have any outside contact.
Iran may be talking about it now becuase they know they will have low turnout in the election and will be able to blame that on this instead of the boycott. I suspect many countries will try to use Coronoavirus for their own objectives.
Other countries are struggling including Japan and South Korea whose numbers quadrupled in one day.
I doubt this will be contained by governments. It may die off as temperatures change or it may spread through the population. The death rate is still unknown with some indications that it is very, very low and some that it is higher as seen by stories of almost whole familes being killed. What seems to me to be a clear trend is that despite a lack of a cure, money is making a difference as the numbers of deaths in places where the population is well off and the countries' health systems are stronger is low. The fear as always is what happens to poor people in countries that have systems that are struggling. I do not worry about it being much more significant than the flu in the wealthy world but it could hit under-developed countries with poor government structures, unhealthy populations, untrusted authorities, and weak health systems very hard. To place China in context it may be in the upper middle of this continuum so we could see much much worse in other places.
I suspect that there will be two different death rates: one for the rich and one for the poor countries.
New Canadian coronavirus patient never went to China, but had visited Iran
- Health authorities say latest case could be ‘indicator that there’s more widespread transmission’
You mean countries might be guilty of under reporting cases?
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-22-20-int...
Nothing to worry about.
Insanity over COVID-19 inflicts real pain on Chinese-owned businesses in Metro Vancouver
New Canadian coronavirus patient never went to China, but had visited Iran
- Health authorities say latest case could be ‘indicator that there’s more widespread transmission’
You mean countries might be guilty of under reporting cases?
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-22-20-int...
Nothing to worry about.
I think there is a bias to the widespread suggestion that if cases are more than reported they are intentionally under-reported or being hidden. This may be the case but not necessarily.
At the start of an outbreak in any location, cases are under-reported becuase there is no widespread testing. Even as testing ramps up we cannot presume that all those who have not been tested do not have the disease.
I predicted days ago a spike in China's cases that occured -- my prediction was based on the decision to have mandatory testing. With mandatory testing you will pull in the poeple who have the disease but still feel fine -- or are blaming their symptoms on something else.
Without testing for it here, it is possible that people could even die of it and be presumed to have died from the flu. Remember that when people who are young die we look hard but when elderly and frail people die we often do not look to closely and chalk it up to old age.
If the majority are mild and the most vulnerable are the more likely to die -- with some exceptions -- it could be very hard to detect if you are not looking for it.
That said I think in the US and Canada we are looking for it but we would be behind in reporting cases if it really got loose here for the same reasons they are behind elsewhere.
Singapore ‘idiot’s guide’ to coronavirus crisis control: don’t do it like Hong Kong
