Trump is done. He still can't reach the support of at least 50%
Almost all the democratic candidates beat him handily.
Weak links would be Biden and not visting every state (especially the important ones)
Apart from a HUGE fuck up, Dems win the House and the Senate and Trump is back as a private citizen in which he should have always been in the first place.
My bold predictions are Graham and McConnell lose their seats. That would be sweet and so far it doesn't look impossible.
This is the problem of a focus on national polls. Drill down into the states and you see that the places the Dems need to win they are hanging on by fingernails. Running up massive majorities in the states they won in 2016 will not take the Presidency. Forget popular vote -- the US does not run on that.
So Alan, take the time and name the states that will vote Democrat for President and the electoral votes and show the polls to support that. I thought it would be easy -- but I was not sure. This is why I did it and found that it was actually coming down to a couple states that were extrememly close with the Dems needing to win states where they are now behind in the polls.
We do not know what the dynamics will be -- if more independents flood into the polling and voting against Trump changing present results or if the Democrats go with a candidate that makes they get more votes in California and New York but fails to bring them the results in the swing states.
There is no evidence to support your contention that this is a certain Trump loss. That is unless you mean meaningless popular vote.
There is a lot of evidence to show that there could be the widest discrepency between electoral college and popular vote ever in the US. I think based on some of these numbers that Trump could get 41-43%, the Democrat could get 51-53, an independent get the balance and Trump win the college. The US is nearing a state of being nearly ungovernable due to this polarization together with the lopsided electoral vote.
At the same time I think the House will remain Democratic and the Senate is a toss-up.
The election is not a sure bet -- it is a dog's breakfast.
Sure possible that the Dems could win but nothing more than that.
The voting results will be almost the same. Except the Democrats will win Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. They lost these seats by a handful of points in 2016 WITH an extremely unpopular Democrat.
Sanders,Warren,, hell Globuchar and Bloomberg too are in positions of victory. As with 2016, the country's most popular politician (with Americans not corporate rulers) is Bernie Sanders. Trump would never beat him. Trump couldn't hold his jock strap.It would be wise for the DNC to give the people what they want. It would be a cake walk if they did so.
Interesting you seem so confident. You are basing this on what exactly? The polls show that the tilt away from Trump is centred in states that already delivered their electoral votes to a Democrat in 2016. Trump won those states by more than a handful of votes.
Trump won Ohio by 8.6% So that was not close.
Let's look at the remaining close states:
Wisconsin 1% for 10 electoral votes, Michigan by 0.3 for 16 electoral votes, Pennsylvania 1.2% for 20
These represent 46 votes. Flipping those three with the rest of the country the same gives 258 to Trump to 273 to the Democrat. What you could call a close election turning on Pennsylvania.
Now let's look at the latest Penn polls: 2-7% in favour of the Democrat. Sounds good right?
Morning Call: Sanders +5, Warren +5, Biden +9. Great right? Before the last election the same pollster had Clinton up by+6.
Quinnpac: The spread is between 3-11 in favour of the Democrats. In 2016 they had Clinton up by 6 also.
NY Times: they have Trump up by 2 against Warren, by 1 against Sanders and Biden up by 1 against Trump. They had Clinton up by 7 in 2016.
Do you still think this is certain?
Just based on these polls it is too close to call.
What about the data? What about the data? (said very mockingly I may add) 'I love your confidence'
I follow American politics very closely. Sanders is popular not only with Democrats but Independants and Republicans.
He woiuld handily with ease smash Trump into pieces. Not bright eyed condidence, it is factual. A done deal? Maybe not but if Sanders wins the Democratic nomination I boldly predict he will win. I don't need data. I need what's being said by Americans, the crowds he draws and the real deal populism.
You also have to look at where Trump stands. His best numbers were 48% I believe (he NEVER bested 50%) He has a solid one third of diehards or as I like to call them lost causes.
In every poll Sanders beats Trump. Every poll. Here's your fucking data.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_elect...
I don't know where you get your data but it isn't accurate. I watch American news channels and if you believe MSNBC or CNN is fake news. check out polls by Fox News. It still has Bernie with a substantial lead over the Orange Fuckface..
So yes, I'm confident. This is an election where the Dems have everything to gain. With Sanders, Trump is done. I'm confident. If trhat irks you well...tant pis,Mister.