2020 Democratic Presidential nominee

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The reality is that the Democrats have raised to the top two unelectable candidates. One unelectable becuase their own party would predictably tear him down and then Biden. After 2016 who would have predicted the Democrats would repeat their mistakes so effectively.

Remember that the Democrats take money from the same wealthy special interests as the Republicans do. That is why they are doing everything they can to sabotage the Sanders campaign, because he represents a threat to those interests.

This does not explain it. Sorry. Sanders could have been sabotaged more effectively with someone who was not in cognitive declilne. There are many, many people the Democrats could have run and supported who would likely be able to beat Trump. In fact arguably, Sanders has done better due to the party's incompetence and poor candidates.

Yes they are sabotaging Sanders -- but that does not explain the fact that they have not been able to put up a credible candidate from the more centre-right side of their party. Loads of choices that did not need to come down to doddering old men.

Election reform is essential for their very electability. A party claiming to be the more progressive of the two main ones has to do better than make it possible that only second rate Republican types can stand for office. Like I said this may not mean reform to the point that they could have a real democracy but at least turn back the trend that has made their party increasingly unelectable except for a few rare cases.

Fact is that US history shows their system (on both sides) increasingly squares off at least one quite unelectable candidate representing one of the two main parties. This year there will be two and yet one does have to win.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The reality is that the Democrats have raised to the top two unelectable candidates. One unelectable becuase their own party would predictably tear him down and then Biden. After 2016 who would have predicted the Democrats would repeat their mistakes so effectively.

Remember that the Democrats take money from the same wealthy special interests as the Republicans do. That is why they are doing everything they can to sabotage the Sanders campaign, because he represents a threat to those interests.

This does not explain it. Sorry. Sanders could have been sabotaged more effectively with someone who was not in cognitive declilne. There are many, many people the Democrats could have run and supported who would likely be able to beat Trump. In fact arguably, Sanders has done better due to the party's incompetence and poor candidates.

It does. Only Sanders represents a material threat to the Democratic Establishment, and only Sanders and Gabbard were ever able to articulate a vision for public life that is different than what the Republicans offered. The Democrats ran Clinton last time, and she lost to Trump. Can you name any right-leaining Democrats who you think would have beaten Trump? Kamala-vote-for-me-because-I'm-a-black-woman-Harris? That looked like the reality until Tulsi exposed her record on stage. Might that be a reason why the DNC is changing the rules to keep her out of the next upcoming debate? Beto-I'm-taking-your-AK47s-O'Rourke? Pete-I'm-an-insufferable-platitude-machine-Buttigieg?

Right-leaning Democratic candidates, from Mondale to Gore to Kerrey to Clinton have all lost elections. It's true that Obama was a right-leaning Democrat, but he painted himself as an agent of transofrmation and change, much like Sanders is doing now. That's why he won so convincintgly. Nobody is inspired by what the right-wing of the Democratic Party has to offer, if they even knew what it was. Republicans may be repulsive overall, but they know how to inspire their people to come out. That is why they keep winning (along with blatant voter supression tactics). The only way the Dems can beat that is with inspiration. Only Sanders ever had a chance of inspiring people, especially as the betrayal of the Obama Administration is beginning to set in.

As for 2 doddering old man? Listen to Sanders clips from 40 years ago to today, and the level of passion and enthusiasm from him is almost identical. He still has it, and even now, after his heart attack, is doing multiple rallies a day in multiple states while the DNC is doing its best to hide Biden from the voters.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

Almost all Trump has going for him is the strong US economy and the US economy is looking incredibly weak nowadays with the Covid-19 outbreak. The stock markets had a horrible week last week and it looks like this week may be another very bad one. Trump's biggest asset by far is the US's very low unemployment rate. Trump will be in a huge amount of trouble if the US's unemployment rate goes up, which it likely will now. I think if the US unemployment rate goes over 6% by Election Day, either Biden or Sanders will have an easy time defeating Trump. Biden may be a weak debater but without a strong economy Trump will look very bad in the debates.

Have you seen Biden speak lately? His appearances are very tightly managed and scripted, and he still goes off on incoherent thoughts. How well do you think he's going to do during a campaign where hiding will be taken as a sign of weakness and against Trump in a debate?

Have you seen the stock markets lately? If Covid-19 continues on until Election Day and the US economy continues taking a big hit all Biden will have to do in the debates is repeat, "Trump is the worst president in our lifetimes and we have to get rid of him ASAP."

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

Almost all Trump has going for him is the strong US economy and the US economy is looking incredibly weak nowadays with the Covid-19 outbreak. The stock markets had a horrible week last week and it looks like this week may be another very bad one. Trump's biggest asset by far is the US's very low unemployment rate. Trump will be in a huge amount of trouble if the US's unemployment rate goes up, which it likely will now. I think if the US unemployment rate goes over 6% by Election Day, either Biden or Sanders will have an easy time defeating Trump. Biden may be a weak debater but without a strong economy Trump will look very bad in the debates.

Have you seen Biden speak lately? His appearances are very tightly managed and scripted, and he still goes off on incoherent thoughts. How well do you think he's going to do during a campaign where hiding will be taken as a sign of weakness and against Trump in a debate?

Have you seen the stock markets lately? If Covid-19 continues on until Election Day and the US economy continues taking a big hit all Biden will have to do in the debates is repeat, "Trump is the worst president in our lifetimes and we have to get rid of him ASAP."

Aside from lacking confidence that Biden would even be able to repeat that phrase without difficulty, to a population that is generally tuned out of politics, why would that inspire people to vote for Biden? Voting takes effort, effort that people aren't going to go to if they think the whole system is corrupt.

A recession and pandemic might inspire a lot of people to vote for Biden and against Trump. Trump just said that the common flu is worse than Covud-19! Time will tell if Trump's complete incompetence costs him the election. It will be interesting looking back at this thread on the second Tuesday of this November.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

On the numbers, Trump is absolutely right, and fits right in with his claim that the "fake news" is lying to people.

Tell that to the people of Wuhan and other parts of China, to South Koreans, to Northern Italians, to people quarantined on cruise ships etc,... Biden may be very far from the perfect candidate but I think he's light years ahead of Trump. Trump is a psychopathic narcissist that the world has the great misfortune of having around as President of the US during a difficult period. Trump's overwhelmingly hatefulness is dividing people right when the US and the world very much needs to cooperate. At least Biden tries to unite different groups.

The Democratic Party voters have zero influence on party politics or party policies. Sanders' naivete, and perhaps his lack of political courage, drove away his most committed young supporters.

What total crap.  Biden is ahead because he's winning more votes, and states.  Enthusiasm for Sanders remains high.  I have no idea what Hedges is talking about it.  It's just that he's not getting enough rank and file voters to vote for him.  It's not more complicated than that.

josh wrote:

The Democratic Party voters have zero influence on party politics or party policies. Sanders' naivete, and perhaps his lack of political courage, drove away his most committed young supporters.

What total crap.  Biden is ahead because he's winning more votes, and states.  Enthusiasm for Sanders remains high.  I have no idea what Hedges is talking about it.  It's just that he's not getting enough rank and file voters to vote for him.  It's not more complicated than that.

I agree. The problem that Sanders supporters have is that too many Democrats who are voting do not have confidence a socialist can beat Trump in the electoral college this time. They are making a determination mostly about electability. I do not think there is real hostility against Sanders other than fear that he will not win. This is a gamble since the only warm-body alternative is also unlikely to win in my opinion.

People want to make it a conspiracy becuase the leadership conspired against him before, is hostile to him now, and is arguing against him. However, underneath all that, rank and file Democrats are agreeing. Despite Biden's weaknesses the terrifying prospect of a re-elected Trump is driving Democrats away from Sanders. We do not have any proof as yet that the Democrat leadership actually did anything out of view this time to stop Sanders. Their concern has been voiced loudly but this opinion seems to be shared in a widespread way. 

Many people who like Sanders share the concern. I think even his heart attack was a problem on top of a candidacy that was more progressive than the US is. Apparently Biden's cognitive decline and Trump's (whatever you want to call that) is of less concern becuase they are not attached to the ideology that Sanders brings.

Sanders is a run-of the mill centre left politician who would not attract that much concern in most parts of the world but the US is a right of centre country and he is scaring the crap out of them -- one side becuase they fear he cannot get elected and the other side becuase they are far enough to the right that Sanders looks extreme.

The motivation behind the attacks on Sanders in the previous election by the leadership are more controversial because of concerns that the leadership is more capitalistic than the rank and file and that they and their financial backers would not want Sanders even if they could elect him. This does not seem to have been Sanders undoing though. Despite this legitimate concern it is the fear of the rank and file (who seem to like him) that he would not be elected that is doing the job. The voices of Democrats who like him, who say they would vote for him if he were the canddiate, but who are supporting Biden becuase he is "more likely to beat Trump."

The specifics of this is that there is a tremendous weight of commentary that Sanders has reportedly made statements that make it harder to win in key battleground states - like his comments about Cuba potentially harming him in Florida and others. He is extremely popular in Democrat States but these battleground states are the must wins. I am not gtting into a debate over whether this fear is valid. I am merely pointing out that it exists and it has been publicized by the campaigns of those running against him and is widely known.

Sanders is losing now becuase of the fear of many that he will lose in the election to Trump. Not that his policies are too far from Democratic voters. I understand the irony that they are running to a canddiate that most of us here think is more likely to lose.

I do not think this is any more complicated than that.

For myself, I have to admit that I do not see Sanders as the ideal candidate -- or any of the others. I think only an ideal candidate -- or someone in an ideal situation can win. Perhaps the ideal situation will materialize (sadly this would mean a lot of pain for many as it involves a crisis) and then any Democrat could win. 

I think a younger candidate, just as progressive but without some of the baggage, and non white could have had a better chance. I say non-white-male becuase many in the US are tired of these. I am not saying Sanders never could have won. But it takes the perfect canddiate to knock off a sitting President who has a lot of advantages, state houses runnign the elections and is willing to cheat.

NDPP wrote:

Seems crookedness is a Biden family trait.

So is it family or class?

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The reality is that the Democrats have raised to the top two unelectable candidates. One unelectable becuase their own party would predictably tear him down and then Biden. After 2016 who would have predicted the Democrats would repeat their mistakes so effectively.

Remember that the Democrats take money from the same wealthy special interests as the Republicans do. That is why they are doing everything they can to sabotage the Sanders campaign, because he represents a threat to those interests.

This does not explain it. Sorry. Sanders could have been sabotaged more effectively with someone who was not in cognitive declilne. There are many, many people the Democrats could have run and supported who would likely be able to beat Trump. In fact arguably, Sanders has done better due to the party's incompetence and poor candidates.

Yes they are sabotaging Sanders -- but that does not explain the fact that they have not been able to put up a credible candidate from the more centre-right side of their party. Loads of choices that did not need to come down to doddering old men.

Election reform is essential for their very electability. A party claiming to be the more progressive of the two main ones has to do better than make it possible that only second rate Republican types can stand for office. Like I said this may not mean reform to the point that they could have a real democracy but at least turn back the trend that has made their party increasingly unelectable except for a few rare cases.

Fact is that US history shows their system (on both sides) increasingly squares off at least one quite unelectable candidate representing one of the two main parties. This year there will be two and yet one does have to win.

I have this theory that the US oligarchy wants two terms of a Republican president followed by two terms of a Democratic president. Rinse, wash, repeat. This is the outcome for presidential elections that does the most to ensure the continued dominance of the two-party system and prevent the establishment of a viable third party not controlled by the oligarchy.

According to this theory, the oligarchy wants Trump re-elected, and therefore doesn't want the Democrats to put up a candidate capable of defeating him.

Douglas Fir Premier wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Perhaps the ideal situation will materialize (sadly this would mean a lot of pain for many as it involves a crisis) and then any Democrat could win.

Right now, the only other thing I can think of that might salvage the election for them is if they're able to hammer home the fact that if Trump is re-elected, Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be 91 before the Dems have another shot at the White House. At that point, Stephen Breyer would be 86. 

Additionally, by the end of the next term, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito will both be in their mid-seventies. It's not hard to imagine that one or both might wish to retire while Trump is still in office, with RBG serving as a cautionary tale against hanging on too long.

A Biden win likely means that the Supreme Court merely remains a 5-4 conservative majority. Now, that itself might not inspire reluctant and dispirited Dems to head to the polls this November. But then, a Trump win could very well result in not just a 7-2 conservative majority - but also the potential replacement of the two oldest conservative justices with ones several decades their junior.

By election day, 2024, the SCOTUS could easily look like this:

Chief Justice, John Roberts - 69

Sonia Sotomayor - 70

Elena Kagan - 64

Brett Kavanaugh - 59

Neil Gorsuch - 57

Trump appointee #3

Trump appointee #4

Trump appointee #5

Trump appointee #6

I'm as unispired about Biden as anyone. But that's some scary shit.

Hell... if Trump gets six appointees on the bench, there might not even be an election in 2024.

good points

Keep Up The Fight: Electoral Politics Was Never Meant to Be The Solution

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"...Which is all the ruling class has ever been afraid of. Not the Russians. Not the Chinese. Not Donald Trump. Not even Bernie Sanders. They've only ever been afraid of you."