Living in the SARS-CoV-2 era (distancing, wash hands, wear mask to protect others, but OK to go outside)
Coronavirus outbreak in France did not come directly from China, gene-tracing scientists say
- Researchers conclude that the virus was circulating undetected in France in February
- Findings highlight the difficulties governments face in tracing the source of coronavirus outbreaks
The lunacy of the US approach has Birx, Trump's Covid-19 point person doesn't like or want to hear the overwhelming stats from CDC so she attacks the CDC. Pity the Americans.
As deaths mount, Trump tries to convince Americans it’s safe to inch back to normal
During a task force meeting Wednesday, a heated discussion broke out between Deborah Birx, the physician who oversees the administration’s coronavirus response, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Birx and others were frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent, according to four people present for the discussion or later briefed on it. Two senior administration officials said the discussion was not heated.
“There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx said, according to two of the people.
Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, steps into the Rose Garden for an event on April 27. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
The flare-up came two days after it was reported that an internal government model, based on data from the CDC and other agencies, projected the daily death count would rise to 3,000 by June 1.
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Redfield defended his agency, but there was general agreement that the CDC is in need of a digital upgrade.
Birx said in a statement: “Mortality is slowly declining each day. To keep with this trend, it is essential that seniors and those with comorbidities shelter in place and that we continue to protect vulnerable communities.”
That assertion is contrary to Johns Hopkins data, which shows U.S. daily deaths hovering close to 2,000 most days for several weeks now, and climbing higher some days last week. Many experts also believe coronavirus deaths are actually being undercounted, with mortality data showing that U.S. deaths soared in the early weeks of pandemic, far beyond the number attributed to covid-19.
Yah, let's not have a public health care system like those Canadian Commies north of us, eh!
Virus Pushes America’s Hospitals to the Brink of Financial Ruin
Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models
That’s not what they’re for.
City in Jilin declares martial law over COVID-19
What we don’t know about coronavirus origins might kill us
The WHO is seeking a new mission to China to hunt for the pathogen’s source
Guo Ding, Kenny Zhang, Guangwei Ouyang, and Lu Chan: Malignant McCarthyism is more dangerous than coronavirus
B.C. in for 'unusual' summer where connections must expand without letting virus take hold, says top doctor
Wuhan shows the world that the end of lockdown is just the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis
Germany
https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/NCOV2019/gesamt.html
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The reproduction rate in Germany remains above the critical threshold of 1, with an estimated value of 1.07 on Monday after 1.13 on Sunday, the Robert Koch Institute for public health and disease control (RKI) has said.
The number indicates that 100 infected people on average infect 107 others, meaning the number of new infections is accelerating again. That could signal the beginning of a second wave of the pandemic in Europe’s largest economy. The RKI said:
The increase in the reproduction number R makes it necessary to observe the development very closely over the coming days.
A pandemic that cleared skies and halted cities isn't slowing global warming.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-how-coronavirus-impacts-climate-change/
BC Sat 9 new cases, Sun 14 new cases, 1 death, and now only 18 people in ICU.
Here is the best article I have read explaining where the risks actually are. Dr. Henry is encouraging outdoor activity because it is indoor activities that are the primary risk.
We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection.
But where are people contracting the infection in the community? I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.
In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious dose of the virus; based on infectious dose studies with MERS and SARS, some estimate that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 viral particles are needed for an infection to take hold. Please note, this still needs to be determined experimentally, but we can use that number to demonstrate how infection can occur. Infection could occur, through 1000 viral particles you receive in one breath or from one eye-rub, or 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths, or 10 viral particles with 100 breaths. Each of these situations can lead to an infection.
...
The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections. (Ref)
Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections). (ref)
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches courses in Immunology and Infectious disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.
Coronavirus death graph shows how March’s lockdown saved lives: expert
https://globalnews.ca/news/6932492/coronavirus-death-graph-march-lockdown-saved-lives/
What are the specific stronger measures for reopening the border as the federales were slow off the mark addressing Covid-19 at our international airports? And what specific prcautions are we going to take when we reopen our airports?
Coronavirus: ‘Stronger measures’ coming to Canada-U.S. border screening, Trudeau says
https://globalnews.ca/news/6935268/coronavirus-us-canada-border-screening/
Keep it local on long weekend, health officials say, as B.C. reports 23 new COVID-19 cases, 1 more death
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-covid-19-update-may-11-1.5565065
Today is International Nurses Day! Thank you to all the nurses.
BC continues to slowly reduce Covid-19 with only 7 new cases reported today, only 16 now in ICU, and unfortunately I additional death.
Both Dr Bonnie Henry and Adrian Dix today addressed the conspiracy theories that are floating around on social media. 'Have some respect for the truth'. Excellent discussion and worth listening to if you get a chance.
With what's coming over the next few years for many Canadians this is unconscionable.
Trudeau Liberals play coy on support for corporations that abuse offshore tax havens
The Aviation Industry Can’t Give In to the Temptation to Compete on Safety
https://slate.com/technology/2020/05/aviation-industry-coronavirus-competition-safety.html
Ugh!
What Will Air Travel Look Like After the Pandemic?
https://slate.com/technology/2020/05/airlines-flying-after-coronavirus.html
How prepared was Canada?
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/how-prepared-was-canada/
Virus RmYN02: Researchers find another potential link between bats and COVID-19
'Our paper shows very clearly that these events occur naturally in wildlife. This provides strong evidence against SARS-CoV-2 being a laboratory escape'
https://nationalpost.com/news/researchers-find-another-link-between-bats-and-the-coronavirus
EU urges voluntary use of virus-tracing apps to speed recovery from pandemic
Trump's rebuke of Fauci encapsulates rejection of science in virus fight
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/14/politics/donald-trump-anthony-fauci-science-coronavirus/index.html
Black light experiment shows how quickly a virus like Covid-19 can spread at a restaurant
COVID-19: Outbreak declared at Horizon Oil Sands work camp
Talk about conspiracy nonsense Plandemic takes the cake. My litmus test these days is if Trump promotes it it is false
Check wikipedia: plandemic and it will tell you all you need to know what legitimate scientists are up against
BC NDP MLA Bowinn Ma responds to Bryan Adams
Sanofi walks back after saying US would get vaccine first
French pharmaceutical group Sanofi says it will make its COVID-19 vaccine, when ready, available in all countries
The one-two duo of almost daily briefings of Dr Bonnie Henry and Adrian Dix who tries to speak French at every presser, have garnered the support of the vast majority of BCers, who feel very fortunate to have their human and caring leadership during this pandemic.
B.C.'s top doctor advises against travel as 15 new COVID-19 cases and 3 deaths announced
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-may-14-1.5570288
Don’t Bet on a Vaccine
If we get one, great. But here’s why we can’t count on it and what that means.
Perpetual Pandemic: Canadians say post-COVID-19 ‘return to normal’ is far off
Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionVietnam has already started opening up again after weeks of no local cases
Despite a long border with China and a population of 97 million people, Vietnam has recorded only just over 300 cases of Covid-19 on its soil and not a single death.
Nearly a month has passed since its last community transmission and the country is already starting to open up.
Experts say that unlike other countries now seeing infections and deaths on a huge scale, Vietnam saw a small window to act early on and used it fully.
But though cost-effective, its intrusive and labour intensive approach has its drawbacks and experts say it may be too late for most other countries to learn from its success.
'Extreme but sensible' measures
"When you're dealing with these kinds of unknown novel potentially dangerous pathogens, it's better to overreact," says Dr Todd Pollack of Harvard's Partnership for Health Advancement in Vietnam in Hanoi.
Recognising that its medical system would soon become overwhelmed by even mild spread of the virus, Vietnam instead chose prevention early, and on a massive scale.
By early January, before it had any confirmed cases, Vietnam's government was initiating "drastic action" to prepare for this mysterious new pneumonia which had at that point killed two people in Wuhan.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
When the first virus case was confirmed on 23 January - a man who had travelled from Wuhan to visit his son in Ho Chi Minh City - Vietnam's emergency plan was in action.
"It very, very quickly acted in ways which seemed to be quite extreme at the time but were subsequently shown to be rather sensible," says Prof Guy Thwaites, director of Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU) in Ho Chi Minh City, which works with the government on its infectious disease programmes.
Vietnam enacted measures other countries would take months to move on, bringing in travel restrictions, closely monitoring and eventually closing the border with China and increasing health checks at borders and other vulnerable places.
Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May. A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way.
"This is a country that has dealt with a lot of outbreaks in the past," says Prof Thwaites, from Sars in 2003 to avian influenza in 2010 and large outbreaks of measles and dengue.
2nd Brazilian Health Minister in a month resigns
John Horgan at his presser just now, told reporter Keith Baldrey that the basketball hoop is still up at his house, and with social distancing in effect, Keith just might be able to get around him and score a basket.
In BC Dr Henry is making the pandemic decisions based on science, and the BC Government is supporting her decisions.
Coronavirus vaccine: Macaque monkey trial offers hope
5 Canadian soldiers serving in Quebec, Ontario nursing homes test positive for COVID-19
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-soldiers-nursing-homes-1.5571607
The real estate market appears to be softening and some rentals in the Lower Mainland appear to be 1/2 the price they were a few short months ago. A lot of these short-term landlords appear to have been caught with big mortgage payments and no rental income, so are now being forced to rent out at lower prices in an attempt to not lose their houses.
More viruses are coming. Here’s what we can do to prepare
Officials raise concerns about CDC counting systems
The public health system by which Covid-19 deaths are reported to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is "antiquated" and "not timely," often lagging by up to three weeks, causing senior leaders at the agency to believe the current death count in the US could be significantly higher, two federal health officials tell CNN.
Both of the federal health officials said it is not clear just how much higher the Covid-19 death toll might be -- potentially thousands or tens of thousands higher. At issue is the way in which data is sent in from states, the officials said.
"Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments," the CDC says on its website. "Our counts often track 1--2 weeks behind other data."
When reached for comment, CDC spokesman Benjamin Haynes directed CNN to its provisional death counts for Covid-19 on its website.
As of May 15, CDC data indicates 60,299 deaths. CNN's US death count, fueled by Johns Hopkins University data, currently stands at more than 86,000.
When asked by CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Friday if he believes the death toll to be accurate, President Donald Trump said, "Those are the numbers that are being reported. I assume they're correct."
The CDC says states report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all US deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation between states, the agency said.
"That's part of the problem, we don't know how far of a lag there is, but there definitely is a lag," one of the officials told CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/politics/concerns-cdc-counting-systems/index.html
What matters are results. All one has to do is watch the daily briefings that are going on in Canada and see the differences between BC's presentations and those in the other larger provinces in the rest of Canada. The contrast is like night and day. One thing that stands out is that John Horgan, unlike other leaders, does not feel he has to hog the limelight, and is allowing his Public Health Officer in combination with his Cabinet Ministers make the presentations, and BCers have responded accordingly.
A virus epicentre that wasn't: How one region stemmed the deaths
The outbreak came early to British Columbia, in January, and public health officials braced for the worst. Now the Canadian province has one of the lowest death rates in North America.
“I thought we were going to be dealing with something unprecedented in that region specifically, but then it didn’t happen,” said Jason Kindrachuk, a virologist at the University of Manitoba.
British Columbia’s success story shows how tried-and-true methods — when paired with strong public health agencies — can have sweeping impact, according to Kindrachuk and other scientists. Many governments embraced technology, with the U.K. using drones to help police enforce lockdowns and South Korea tapping location data from mobile carriers and credit-card transactions to track infections.
B.C. stuck to old-fashioned basics, alerting primary care doctors by fax about how to be on the lookout for the novel pathogen and tracing potential transmissions through interviews. Data compiled on May 13 show the province’s Covid-19 death rate was 3 per 100,000 residents, better than almost anywhere in North America and much of Europe.
Median condo prices in Canada’s biggest housing market dropped $65,000 and more in two months
COVID-19 in B.C.: Dr. Bonnie Henry says health impact of British Columbia's reopening won't be known for two weeks