New Brunswick election 2020

Clinic 554, which is NB's only abortion clinic, is in danger of closing because of a Regulation 84-20, banning abortions outside of hospital. Patients pay $700 to $850 for an abortion at the clinic because of the lack of government funding. While the Trudeau Liberals withheld $140,000 in health transfer payments as a penalty for the situation, the funding was restored because of the Covid-19 crisis. The managing director warns the clinic will close at the end of September because of the lack of government funding and the survival of the clinic depends on the outcome of the election. The push to save the clinic is becoming an issue in the election. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7291672/save-clinic-554-new-brunswick-election/

Health care is also becoming a major issue in the campaign. 

- The New Brunswick Medical Society is calling on political parties to make health care the top priority of the provincial election campaign. President Dr. Chris Goodyear said Tuesday that COVID-19 has highlighted the need for more spending in the health-care network.

"We're advocating for a different approach, but that's going to entail higher spending," he said in an interview. "We are in the middle of a global pandemic and that has shed a lot of light on the cracks in our health-care system. For too long, New Brunswick's health system has remained stagnant and now is the time for tangible change to improve access to care, he said. Our approach is to work with the next government ... and sit down and discuss what health care is going to look like in the province of New Brunswick for the next 10 to 20 years," Goodyear said.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that government and health-care professionals can work together to respond to the needs of the public when faced with unprecedented challenges, he said.

Goodyear said New Brunswick's health system is suffering from a shortage of professionals and hospital beds, and has some of the longest wait times for surgery in the country. More than 30,000 New Brunswickers are without a family doctor, he said. The province needs a centralized system that a health professional interested in working in New Brunswick can call to get all their questions answered, he added.

Goodyear said the medical society isn't taking sides in this election."We want to sit down with the next government of the province, along with other health-care professionals and really look at what the needs of New Brunswickers are going forward," he said.

Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers said Tuesday if his party is elected, he'll prevent health authorities from closing rural hospitals and rural emergency rooms. ...

Former Tory deputy premier Robert Gauvin left the party in February to sit as an Independent in protest over health-care reforms that would have seen the nighttime closure of emergency rooms at some rural hospitals.

Higgs' government later scrapped the idea because of public backlash and gaps identified in the plan. Gauvin, who is now running for the Liberals, said Tuesday he believes Higgs still wants to make the cuts. "He wanted this, and now he wants a majority," Gauvin said. But Higgs has repeatedly said in recent weeks he won't cut emergency room services. ...

Meanwhile, the People's Alliance used its daily news conference to call for more support for people battling drug addictions. ...

Green Leader David Coon said Tuesday a Green government would ensure people living with disabilities are fully included in New Brunswick society. ... A Green government would introduce a number of initiatives to help disabled people, he promised, such tabling a New Brunswick accessibility act.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/doctors-want-health-care-to-become-top-issue...

jerrym wrote:

Health care is also becoming a major issue in the campaign. 

- The New Brunswick Medical Society is calling on political parties to make health care the top priority of the provincial election campaign. President Dr. Chris Goodyear said Tuesday that COVID-19 has highlighted the need for more spending in the health-care network.

"We're advocating for a different approach, but that's going to entail higher spending," he said in an interview. "We are in the middle of a global pandemic and that has shed a lot of light on the cracks in our health-care system. For too long, New Brunswick's health system has remained stagnant and now is the time for tangible change to improve access to care, he said. Our approach is to work with the next government ... and sit down and discuss what health care is going to look like in the province of New Brunswick for the next 10 to 20 years," Goodyear said.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that government and health-care professionals can work together to respond to the needs of the public when faced with unprecedented challenges, he said.

Goodyear said New Brunswick's health system is suffering from a shortage of professionals and hospital beds, and has some of the longest wait times for surgery in the country. More than 30,000 New Brunswickers are without a family doctor, he said. The province needs a centralized system that a health professional interested in working in New Brunswick can call to get all their questions answered, he added.

Goodyear said the medical society isn't taking sides in this election."We want to sit down with the next government of the province, along with other health-care professionals and really look at what the needs of New Brunswickers are going forward," he said.

Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers said Tuesday if his party is elected, he'll prevent health authorities from closing rural hospitals and rural emergency rooms. ...

Former Tory deputy premier Robert Gauvin left the party in February to sit as an Independent in protest over health-care reforms that would have seen the nighttime closure of emergency rooms at some rural hospitals.

Higgs' government later scrapped the idea because of public backlash and gaps identified in the plan. Gauvin, who is now running for the Liberals, said Tuesday he believes Higgs still wants to make the cuts. "He wanted this, and now he wants a majority," Gauvin said. But Higgs has repeatedly said in recent weeks he won't cut emergency room services. ...

Meanwhile, the People's Alliance used its daily news conference to call for more support for people battling drug addictions. ...

Green Leader David Coon said Tuesday a Green government would ensure people living with disabilities are fully included in New Brunswick society. ... A Green government would introduce a number of initiatives to help disabled people, he promised, such tabling a New Brunswick accessibility act.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/doctors-want-health-care-to-become-top-issue...

Hadn't he been the only francophone PC MLA?

The final list of candidates is now available. 

The Progressive Conservatives and Liberals will be running a full slate of candidates in the provincial election.

Both political parties submitted names for all 49 provincial ridings ahead of Friday afternoon’s deadline at 2 p.m.

The Green Party has 47 candidates, the People’s Alliance has 36 and the NDP has 32 candidates.

Four people are running for the KISS N.B. Party while nine people have put their names forward as Independents.

There are a total of 226 candidates running across the province. You can find the full list on the Elections New Brunswick website.

https://www.country94.ca/2020/08/28/candidate-list-finalized-for-n-b-ele...

The last three polls taken before the election was called suggest that this will be a walk for the PC's 

Narrative ResearchAugust 23, 2020 PC 44% Lib 33% PA 2% Green 14%  NDP 7%

Angus ReidMay 24, 2020 PC 39% Lib 26% PA 13% Green 17% NDP 4%

Narrative ResearchMay 20, 2020 PC 48% Lib 30% PA 3% Green 15% NDP 5%

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Brunswick_general_election)

"Four people are running for the KISS N.B. Party "

KEEP IT SIMPLE SOLUTIONS, NEW BRUNSWICK (KISS NB)

Our first job will be to make a constitution for the province of New Brunswick.

In a bold move to show that no task is difficult the first thing they intend to do is the simple task of writing a new constitution. I laughed out loud when I read that.

ETA: The New Brunswick election debate can be viewed at the url below. The debate doesn't begin until 9:50.

Interim inexperienced NDP leader Mackenzie Thomason did not embarass himself. He stuck to a simple straightforward message of the party's support for the poor, unions, LGBT, environmental, indigenous and other issues of the disadvantage that was somewhat repetitive but got the message across. However, it is not likely to be enough to more than finish fourth at best. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CEkOX2uaFA

Latest poll

Cons 42%

Libs 33%

Greens 18%

NDP 6%

People's Alliance 2%

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Conservati...

Ken Burch wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

The best news is the apparent collapse of the PA.  The bad news is...their vote appears to have swung as a bloc(not a Bloc, to be sure) to the PC's, and this raises questions about that the PCs would do if this trend is what gives them not only a clear but perhaps a sizable majority.

I would say the collapse of the Liberal vote is also good news. The rise in support for the Greens is also positive, as it shows that New Brunswickers are looking for other options outside of the established parties. It's just unfortunate that the NDP never capitalized on the strong popular vote showing in 2014, or they might have been the prime beneficiaries of that vote in this campaign.

The only other interesting development that could still happen in this election would be if, now that it's clear that the Liberals can't win, if there was a last-minute swing to the Greens as a vote to reject both of the oldest parties.

And you're right, it is lamentable that the NBNDP made no real headway after 2014.  The key problem seems to have been that they could never connect with francophone voters.  This lack of connection probably explains why Yvon Godin never sought the NBNDP leadership.

Having a leader who's so far right he eventually defected to the Tories didn't help.

Here's a look at each party's promises for anyone interested. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7326866/nb-election-2020-promise-tracker/

jerrym wrote:

The People's Alliance has now removed a candidate for anti-Muslim comments, so PA joins the Cons and Libs in losing a candidate, in the latter two cases because of homophobic comments. 

Another political party in New Brunswick has dropped a candidate for next week's provincial election because of past comments made online.

The People's Alliance party has confirmed that Heather Collins is no longer their candidate in the riding of Memramcook-Tantramar because of comments online in 2019 complaining about the number of Muslims immigrating to Canada.

Earlier this week, the Progressive Conservatives dropped Roland Michaud as their candidate in Victoria-La Vallee after learning he reposted a transphobic meme that suggested physical violence against transgender women when they use washrooms.

Also Monday, the Liberal party announced it was cutting ties with its candidate in St. Croix.

Party leader Kevin Vickers said John Gardner will no longer run under the Liberal banner after making comments viewed as offensive on social media concerning the LGBTQ community.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/third-party-in-new-brunswick-loses-candidate...

In practical terms, this won't affect the outcome of the contest...the PA didn't even nominate a candidate in this riding last time-it's one of the seats that went Green-the Liberals, who had held it, finished second and the PC's were in a weak third- and it's a Green/Liberal contest this time around.  

Ken Burch wrote:

jerrym wrote:

The People's Alliance has now removed a candidate for anti-Muslim comments, so PA joins the Cons and Libs in losing a candidate, in the latter two cases because of homophobic comments. 

Another political party in New Brunswick has dropped a candidate for next week's provincial election because of past comments made online.

The People's Alliance party has confirmed that Heather Collins is no longer their candidate in the riding of Memramcook-Tantramar because of comments online in 2019 complaining about the number of Muslims immigrating to Canada.

Earlier this week, the Progressive Conservatives dropped Roland Michaud as their candidate in Victoria-La Vallee after learning he reposted a transphobic meme that suggested physical violence against transgender women when they use washrooms.

Also Monday, the Liberal party announced it was cutting ties with its candidate in St. Croix.

Party leader Kevin Vickers said John Gardner will no longer run under the Liberal banner after making comments viewed as offensive on social media concerning the LGBTQ community.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/third-party-in-new-brunswick-loses-candidate...

In practical terms, this won't affect the outcome of the contest...the PA didn't even nominate a candidate in this riding last time-it's one of the seats that went Green-the Liberals, who had held it, finished second and the PC's were in a weak third- and it's a Green/Liberal contest this time around.  

But it does reflect on their candidate selection processes. 

bekayne wrote:

New Ekos poll

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1304967959287390210

PC 32

Lib 32

Gre 18

COR 10

NDP 4

So...after all that, the result could potentially be...the parties coming out almost exactly the same in the seat count as before the election?

Also...did you realize you wrote "CoR" for "PA" there?

Mainstreet poll:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1305173010396127232

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1305174016039309317

Greens at 13% for those who have voted, 28% for those who haven't

The New Brunswick NDP argues that although it does not to expect to do well in this election it is moving to the left and laying the groundwork for doing better in the future. Considering its past performance, this at least offers them a better chance in the future than continuing on the same old path. 

The New Brunswick NDP may have little chance of winning any seats in the September 14 provincial election, but officials feel the party has rebounded from recent struggles, and laid the groundwork for future success.

"Over the last two or three weeks, I've become more confident in our ability to not only come through this election, but to succeed in the next two elections," leader Mackenzie Thomason said. "We have an amazingly educated and amazingly talented team of candidates," he said. "And I am so excited to be able to say that they are going to be the team that we use as resources going forward to help rebuild this party."

More than half of the NDP's candidates are under the age of 35. And they are advancing a class-based message evocative of the party's forerunner, the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation.

"We must invest in the working class and their families," the party says in its election platform. "The NB NDP is in this race to show the province that there is a party for the working class, of the downtrodden, of the renter, of the homeless, and of the poor."

Many of the party's candidates come from the working class they aspire to represent. "It shows that you don't have to be a lawyer or an executive or a well-off person to run for politics," said Thomason, a hotel guest service agent who is running in Fredericton North.

John Nuttall, the party's candidate in Riverview, supports the party's change in tone. "I think it's really important that we move left," he said. "The Greens in New Brunswick are popular because they're viewed as the progressive option." A member of the party's socialist caucus, Nuttall said the NDP platform might have been even more explicitly left-wing had the pandemic not put its June convention on hold.

"The socialist caucus has been working extremely hard to build a large coalition of people to vote in convention for moving this party to the left and fully embracing it as a socialist workers' party," he said. "If COVID hadn't happened and we had the convention that we were supposed to have, you would be looking at an unabashed, openly socialist party."

The NDP platform calls for a $15 minimum wage, universal pharmacare, eliminating community college fees and reducing university tuition. It also proposes the creation of 24,000 new childcare spaces and the introduction of a provincial carbon reduction fund.

In addition to young people and workers, the NDP has also been working to connect with the province's small but growing immigrant population. Natasha Akhtar, the party's standard bearer in Oromocto -- Lincoln -- Fredericton, is the co-founder of the New Brunswick Immigrant Women's Association. Originally from Pakistan, she hopes her candidacy will inspire other immigrants to get involved in politics. "By stepping forward, I want to give them encouragement to run as well or be involved in policy-making in a meaningful way," she said.

Distinct messaging is essential to differentiate the New Democrats from the more electorally successful Greens, Akhtar said. "We need to be really, really clear what people are going to get with us and that the NDP has a much broader platform."

Despite the enthusiasm of its candidates, recent opinion polls and historical precedent suggest the party will be shut out when the votes are counted.

"The NDP does not seem to have made any real inroads, certainly in the last few months, nor have they really since the last election," said Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research, an Atlantic Canadian polling firm. "The party that seems to have progressed potentially is the Green party." ...

Polling done by Narrative Research last month put the NDP at seven per cent of popular support and the Greens at 14 per cent. On the question of preferred premier, Thomason was the choice of five per cent while Green Leader David Coon was favoured by 14 per cent. ...

The New Brunswick NDP/CCF has elected only three people to office since contesting its first election in 1944. The party's last MLA left office 15 years ago. J.P. Lewis, associate professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John, said 2020 is shaping up to be another disappointing election year for the NDP. "It's a real challenge for them to win a seat," he said.

The New Democrats, who are running candidates in 33 of the province's 49 electoral districts, will suffer from unfavourable vote splits and the limitations of competing in a snap election during a pandemic, he said. The party's place in New Brunswick's political wilderness is part of a long-standing regional phenomenon, Lewis said. “It could fit into the pattern that exists in other Atlantic provinces, where the NDP kind of struggled to break through as the third party for years even though, at times, there's been a strong national brand."

https://rabble.ca/news/2020/09/new-brunswick-ndp-candidates-hope-lay-gro...

Popular vote breakdown was as follows:

PC 39.31% (27 seats) up 7.42%

Lib 34.38% (17 seats) down 3.42%

GRN 15.24% (3 seats) up 3.36%

PA 9.19% (2 seats) down 3.39%

NDP 1.66% (0 seats) down 3.34%

Solid PC win.  Embarassment for the Liberals, who won the popular vote in NB only two years ago. A mild disappointment for the Greens, who gained some votes but seem to have had a federal NDP-style last moment drop in support, probably voters who were thinking of supporting them voting Liberal after all to "stop the PCs".  The PA's did better than it looked like they would-there were polls a week before the vote which put them at 2%.  It's possible that some right-wing NB voters who'd been leaning to the PC's switched back to the PA at the end because they felt a PC government facing no PA presence in the legislature wouldn't embrace enough anti-francophone nastiness for their taste.

A bad showing for the NDP, but really, what else could have happened when they were fighting the election with no money and only an interim leader?