The next British Columbia provincial election

The latest poll, an Ipsos one, shows the NDP at 51% with an 18% lead over the Liberals who have 33% while the Greens have 12% and other parties 4%. The NDP leads in all regions including in the Southern Interior/North where they usually do poorest. One important thing could change the outcome: 31% are undecided. The NDP are ranked ahead of the other parties by the public on 10 of 11 issues, including the top five choices (namely Covid, cost-of-living, economy, health care, and housing )  by those polled, with the sole exception being environment/climate change where the Greens lead (see chart on % for each issue and party at the url below). 

The Issues British Columbians care about a wide variety of different issues in this provincial election. Coronavirus/COVID-19 is at the top of the list but is still only mentioned by three-in-ten (30%) residents. Other important issues include cost of living/affordability (24%), jobs and the economy (19%), health care (19%) and housing affordability/availability (17%).

The Horserace It’s not close. The NDP start the campaign with an 18-point lead over the BC Liberals. Currently, 51% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The BC Liberals are next at 33% support, followed by the Greens at 12%. Total ‘other party’ support is 4%. These results exclude the 31% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

The good news for the BC Liberals and Greens is that there are more undecided voters available this election compared to the start of the 2017 campaign (31% today vs. 23% in first poll of 2017 campaign).

Age Breaks: The NDP leads by a wide margin across all age groups, including by 18-points among traditionally higher turnout older voters (NDP 52% vs. Libs 34% among 55+ years).

Gender Breaks: The NDP have a 25-point lead among women (53% NDP vs. 28% Libs) and a narrower, but still substantial, 11-point lead among men (49% Libs vs. 38% NDP).

Region Breaks: The NDP has a large 26-point lead on Vancouver Island (51% NDP vs. 25% Libs) and a 23-point lead in Metro Vancouver (55% NDP vs. 32% Libs). Things are much closer in the Southern Interior/North, where the NDP has only a 5-point lead (44% NDP vs. 39% Libs). The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island at 20% support (vs. 11% in Metro Vancouver, 9% in Southern Interior/North). ...

Best Premier BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson and newly elected Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau need to use the first part of the campaign to raise their profiles. John Horgan, at 44%, has a huge lead over both Wilkinson (14%) and Furstenau (6%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Again, the number of undecided voters is large, at 36% (vs. 31% in first poll of 2017).

Deserving Re-Election The 2017 election opened with nearly six-in-ten (56%) voters saying it was time for change. This election, only half as many voters (28%) say it is time for another provincial party to take over. Nearly half (45%) of British Columbians believe that the Horgan government has done a good job and deserves re-election. As with vote, the good news for the other parties is that there is a sizable pool of voters who are undecided about whether it is time for change (27% today vs. 16% in first poll of 2017 campaign).

Best on Issues John Horgan and the NDP own most issues. They are well ahead on the top 5 campaign issues of Coronavirus/COVID-19 (31-point lead), cost of living/affordability (18-point lead), jobs/economy (11 point lead), health care (23-point lead) and housing affordability/availability (20-point lead).

Sonia Furstenau and the Green Party lead on the issue of climate change and the environment. Andrew Wilkinson and the BC Liberals do not lead on any issue and are closest on government deficits and debt (4-points behind), which a top issue for only 6% of voters.

Election Timing and Impact There is no pervasive anger at the decision by John Horgan and the NDP to hold an election now instead of waiting for the planned fixed election date in October 2021. Just less than half (46%) of British Columbians say they disapprove of having an election now, while 32% approve of the decision.

The current NDP lead in vote intention is the best sign that voters are not yet planning to punish John Horgan and the NDP for calling a snap election. We also asked respondents directly whether it would impact their vote and only 15% said they were seriously considering a vote for the NDP and are less likely to do so now. Twice as many residents (32%) said they were seriously considering a vote for the NDP and the snap election has no impact on their vote.

Another two-in-ten (21%) residents said they were not seriously considering a vote for the NDP and one-third (32%) had no opinion on this question.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/British-Columbians-Are-Not-Looking-For-Change

The latest poll by Leger is similar to previous polls: it shows the NDP at 47% with a 16% lead over the Liberals who have 31% while the Greens have 12% and the Cons 9%, Someone Else <1%.

If the provincial election were held today the BC NDP would capture the most popular votes (47%) followed by the BC Liberal Party (31%) among decided voters.

❑ This is a significant improvement for the NDP and a deterioration for the Liberal Party compared to the 2017 results where both parties captured just over 40% of the vote.

❑ Both the NDP and Liberal Party have more committed voters; about two-thirds (69% and 65% respectively) are not likely to switch their vote to another party.

Early Election Call & Implications

Half (49%) of all respondents oppose Premier Horgan calling an election at this time.

❑ Even among those that would vote NDP one-third (32%) oppose this early election call.
❑ Overall, one-quarter (26%) of all respondents say they are less likely to vote for Premier Horgan and the NDP due to the calling of an election at this time. This proportion is much lower among those that state they would vote NDP (6%).

Impression of Leaders

John Horgan has the most favourable impression among the three main Party leaders active in this election.

❑ Over half (57%) of British Columbians have a favourable impression of John Horgan.
❑ Only one-third (34%) have a favourable impression of Andrew Wilkinson.
❑ Half (49%) of respondents do not know enough about Sonia Furstenau to have an opinion.

Most Important Issue

The two most important issues that have been raised in this election are getting BC’s economy growing after the pandemic and managing the health and safety of people during the pandemic (22% and 20% selecting respectively).

❑ The next two most important issues are the cost of living pressure on families (16%) and addressing the high cost of housing in BC (13% selecting).

❑ Overall, John Horgan and the BC NDP are felt to have the best plan to address peoples priority issue (33% chose NDP). ❑Half as many (16%) chose Andrew Wilkinson and the BC Liberal Party as having the best plan to address their most important priority. One-quarter of respondents say they don’t know which party has the best plan with 11% stating none do.

Majority vs. Minority

Half (49%) of British Columbians feel a majority government would be better able to deal with the current COVID-19 pandemic situation in BC.

❑ One in five (21%) feel a minority government would be better to deal with the current situation while 30% say they don't know which type of government would be better.

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Leger-Provincial-Politic...

The latest poll from Mainstreet/338 shows the NDP lead down 5% from 16% to 11%, with the NDP down 2% 45%, the Liberals up 3% to 34%, and the Greens up 4% to 16%. However, the sampling dates show considerable overlap with Mainstreet being from September 26-29 while Leger was from September 24-28, so some of the difference may be differences in who was sampled or sampling noise, in addition to any change in popularity. 

Among decided voters, the NDP receives 45 per cent support, which should—theoretically—be enough for John Horgan to win his coveted majority:

The B.C. Liberals sit at 34 per cent of decided voters, 11 points behind the NDP. The Greens stand at 16 per cent, close to their 2017 total (although the Greens did run 83 candidates in 2017).

We add this newest poll to the 338Canada British Columbia model with other recent B.C. surveys published since the writ was drawn up (see all B.C. polls here), and project the NDP winning an average of 55 seats:

The B.C. Liberals win an average of 30 seats according to this projection. The threshold for a majority in Victoria is 44 seats. In the 2017 general election, the Liberals won 43 seats and the NDP 41 seats. The balance of power went to the Greens, which won the three remaining seats in the legislature.

Here are the seat projection probability densities: the higher the bars, the more likely the outcome. We notice on the graph below that the Liberals and NDP curves barely overlap. In fact, according to these numbers, the odds of a near-tie in the seat count are similar to those of an NDP rout (65+ seats).

In short, the B.C. Liberals are in trouble. Over the 100,000 general election simulations performed by the model, the NDP wins 96 per cent of the time (or 24 out of every 25 simulations), including a majority of seats in 94 per cent of simulations:

Of course, many things may happen in the span of three weeks and, for those who remember the 2013 B.C. election, we know that polls could be off by a handful of points. Nevertheless, considering the high satisfaction levels of John Horgan’s handling of the pandemic (as measured weekly by Léger since April), such a polling error seems highly unlikely at the moment. To wit, in the latest Léger poll released on Tuesday, 80 per cent of British Columbia voters remain satisfiedwith Horgan’ handling of the pandemic, the highest among all premiers in Canada.

 

The demographic breakdown of the poll shows the NDP leading or statistically tied with the Liberals in all age groups, including a 17-point lead in the 35-49 year old bracket and a 10-point lead in the 50-64 year old bracket. Moreover, although the Liberals and NDP are tied among male voters, the NDP enjoys a considerable 23-point lead among female voters.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/338canada-exclusive-poll-the-b-c-ndps-c...

Here's a look at the NDP's record on childcare, both good and bad. While the NDP has provided more funding and promised more than the other parties, it has not significantly raised wages in this grossly underpaid sector, did enough on developing indigenous programs although it has promises in that regard, and given to much funding to private sector firms that could underfund programs or sell later sell them off at a profit. 

Gregson, spokesperson for the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC, a non-partisan organization advocating for the $10 a Day Child Care Plan, says she’s just stating facts. The NDP government invested more in child-care spaces, costs and wages in the last 3.5 years than the previous BC Liberal government did, she said.

“We have seen progress on all three fronts, which are affordability for families, new space creation and improved wages for educators,” said Gregson. “They stabilized and/or improved on each of those.”

Since forming government, the NDP has spent $2 billion on child care, the largest investment in B.C. history, according to the Early Childhood Educators of BC. ...

The money provided capital funding for over 24,500 new licensed child-care spaces for infants to 12-year-olds; expanded Aboriginal Head Start programs in both Indigenous communities and urban areas; funded a $2-an-hour wage top up for educators; enrolled 53,000 families in an income benefit program for child care, which saw 32,700 of those families paying less than $10 a day for care; and subsidized child-care fees for another 63,000 families by $350 per month. ...

“That is an improvement from when the BC Liberals were in power and fees were rising at more than the rate of inflation,” Gregson said. The government is three years into its 10-year plan to provide universal $10-a-day care, which the NDP pledged to implement during the 2017 campaign. 

Under the BC Liberal government, the focus was on child-care subsidies for parents, which were capped at $550 a month — an amount that had not changed since 2005. 

Under the NDP, subsidies can go as high as $1,250 per month.

In 2016/17, the last year the Liberals were in power, subsidies were provided for 32,000 families, Gregson notes. 

But there’s plenty of room for improvement and even to criticize the NDP’s handling of child care, advocates say.

 Gregson notes capital funding has gone not only to public child-care providers but also to private for-profit centres and to not-for-profit organizations. The coalition wants public money to fund public child-care spaces.

“If I’m a private, for-profit operator and I get a grant for $250,000, I can use that as a down payment on a piece of property. And then once my operating agreement is over, I own that asset and I can sell it and make a profit from that,” she said.

“Whereas if it’s a public asset like a school, even if the principal retires, the school continues operating and remains as a school for the next principal to come along and operate.”

The NDP election platform does promise more public child-care spaces operated by schools, Crown corporations, local governments, First Nations and post-secondary institutions. 

But the party also promises to support more private sector developers in including child-care spaces in new office and residential buildings.

Emily Gawlick, executive director of the Early Childhood Educators of BC, said the $2-per-hour wage top up for the province’s early childhood educators is a great start in improving pay and an indication that the NDP take child care seriously.

The median starting wage for an early childhood educator in the province is $18 an hour, although some educators start at the $14.60 minimum wage.

But Gregson and Gawlick want the next government to implement a wage grid developed in collaboration between their two organizations. The starting wage should be $26 an hour as part of an effort to attract and retain staff, Gawlick said.

“Even as government is building spaces, it’s hard for employers to find the necessary qualified people to work in those programs,” she said. Child-care centres are already struggling to find staff, and expansion in the sector will add to the problem.

Gawlick would like to see scholarships for people training to be early childhood educators and professional development opportunities for people already working in the sector. 

The NDP government did increase the number of spaces in childhood educator programs, Gawlick said. She added the programs should be expanded to include on-the-job training with mentors as well as classroom instruction.

Gregson and Gawlick also want to see the $10-a-day prototype sites, which opened in 2018 with 1,800 spots, expanded provincewide.

The NDP government has dedicated $30 million to culturally-appropriate Indigenous child-care spaces in the province since 2018. This helped fund 10 new Aboriginal Head Start centres, with 259 spaces for Indigenous children, while another two centres are funded but not yet open.

Karen Isaac of the BC Aboriginal Child Care Society says there are still communities without access to culturally-appropriate care, as well as barriers to opening new centres like access to training for Indigenous early childhood educators, licensing requirements, need for more funding and a lack of culturally-appropriate standards and regulations.

But Isaac says she wants the NDP to form government again, because it brought the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples into provincial law. 

“Now that there is a process to begin to look at all these facets of Indigenous life, including early learning and child care, we think that a lot of the systemic barriers that exist could be addressed by governments and First Nations working together to recognize jurisdiction,” Isaac said. 

“But not only that: provide the capacity for First Nations to exercise authority [and] decision-making in this area, so that we are providing services that communities want and need at the community. And that could be child care, but it could be other things as well.”

Government child-care policy is “one size fits all,” Isaac added, and it does not recognize the rights of Indigenous people.

While the NDP platform does not mention UNDRIP in its child-care promises, it does pledge long-term agreements for Indigenous self-determination and establishing a secretariat to ensure any new legislation or policies are consistent with UNDRIP. 

While the Liberals have yet to release a full platform, their campaign website addresses child care, pointing out the 24,500 new spaces funded by the NDP government are not all operational yet.

They also make pledges specifically for pandemic child care, including providing adequate PPE through operational funding, ensuring no provider goes bankrupt because of COVID-19, clarifying what “daily screening” means, and producing a comprehensive report on the state of B.C. child care during the pandemic.

The BC Green Party is also still putting its platform together. But in a press release Tuesday they outlined their child-care plan, pledging an additional $223 million in annual funding by 2024/25 to provide more spaces, more training opportunities for early childhood educators, free child care for working parents with children under three, and up to 25 hours of free child care per week for three- and four-year-olds.

Gregson appreciates the child-care promises from the Greens, but says they haven’t pledged enough money to achieve the universal $10 a day plan. 

“I think it’s well-intentioned, but it’s not a very knowledgeable platform about child care, and it’s not costed appropriately,” she said. 

Both the Greens and NDP pledge to move child care from the Ministry of Children and Family Development to the Education Ministry.

Gregson says the NDP has a more detailed plan for achieving universal $10-a-day care than the Greens or the Liberals have released so far.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/10/08/Advocates-Rate-NDP-Child-Care-Perform...

The NDP, unlike 2013 when they went all positive with a 20% lead and lost, are going on the attack, while the Liberals target ads towards the large Chinese and business communities telling them the NDP has added 23 new taxes while increasing crime and homelessness in a province of economic desolation that doesn't match reality. 

Interestingly, the Vancouver local news is really playing up stories of crime and homelessness leading its broadcasts in a way that fits right in with the Liberals ads in a way that it hadn't until recently.  

The NDP election campaign is tapping into people’s urge to protest by launching online petitions opposing key elements of the Liberal platform and in support of taxes on speculators and free contraception.

A petition embedded in a Facebook ad in favour of the popular Speculation and Vacancy Tax — and opposing the Liberals’ pledge to replace it — has collected more than 6,000 digital signatures, according to the NDP campaign. ...

Tearing a page from the opposition playbook, a new set of ads have appeared urging people to sign up in support of Premier John Horgan’s recovery benefit of $1,000 per family or $500 per individual (1,545 signatures) and opposing Liberal bailouts for “big business and the wealthy.”

Petition-style “sign up” buttons also appeared on ads in support of free contraceptives and a rent freeze, both recent additions to the NDP platform.

“This allows them to mobilize a base using a strategy that would be more typical of opposition than government,” said UBC political scientist Max Cameron.

Petition signees give the party their name, email address and phone number, a valuable resource for a party looking to get the vote out.

In the fine print under the sign-up form, the signee is informed that their information may be used to “keep you updated about this and other B.C. NDP activities.”

The NDP’s online campaign is focused, with clear statements about what voters can expect from a Liberal government, while offering clear financial incentives like the recovery benefit if they are re-elected, said Cameron.

“(The NDP) is making arguments about fairness and distribution … and saying this is going to be taken away from you (by a Liberal government), and this is what we’re giving you,” he said. “They’re trying to make it very real in terms of your pocketbook. It’s very pointed and very concrete.”

More than 645,000 British Columbians have requested mail-in ballots that allow them to vote well before election day, but the Liberal campaign has yet to release a complete platform.

Elections B.C. confirmed Friday that mail-in ballots are already coming back.

Toward the end of this week the Liberals were spending roughly $20,000 a day on Facebook ads through the party’s main page and Wilkinson’s page, while the NDP spend was about $10,000 a day.

The Liberals online campaign was initially focused on Horgan’s “power grab” but has since diversified.

Newer ads cover platform planks such as private competition for auto insurance, suspending the provincial sales tax, and their surprise pledge to hold a referendum on Surrey’s switch from the RCMP to a municipal police force. ...

A series of negative ads target “failed” NDP policies that led to small business and mill closures, tent cities and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Scare ads warn of an NDP road tax on drivers, a tax on home equity.

“The Liberals seem to be more focused on the business climate and that you can’t trust the NDP to manage the recovery,” said Cameron.

The Liberals’ Chinese language ads say the NDP has added 23 new taxes and let crime and homelessness increase.

“The grim pictures of economic desolation and people in tents paint a pretty dark picture,” he said. “I think that parties have to balance that with a message that’s hopeful rather than try to scare the wits out of people.”

The B.C. Green Party is spending about $400 a day on ads that mainly focus on the New Democrats’ fondness for subsidies for the fossil fuel industry.

https://vancouversun.com/news/b-c-election-2020-incumbent-ndp-aiming-to-...

Many in the leadership of the BC Liberal party including party leader Andrew Wilkinson were caught chuckling at what has been deemed a racist, sexist and misogynistic story about NDP North Vancouver-Lonsdale MLA Bowinn Ma told by Liberal North Vancouver-Seymour MLA Jane Thornwaite that was caught on video. She apologized but only after first defending her action.

Comments a BC Liberal election candidate made during a roast for a retiring MLA have become an election issue, after being widely circulated on social media Saturday night.

The comments were made by North Vancouver-Seymour candidate Jane Thornthwaite in a Zoom video leaked to This is Vancolour podcast host and CKNW contributor Mo Amir and have generated accusations of sexism and misogyny and calls for an apology. ...

In a story apparently meant to tease former West Vancouver-Capilano MLA Ralph Sultan, Thornthwaite recounts a series of interactions he had with North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP candidate Bowinn Ma while in opposition. ...

Sultan had pledged to hold Bowinn to account on behalf of the Liberals, Thornthwaite said.

“Except Bowinn, as you know, very pretty lady, and she knows she’s got ‘it,’ and she knows how to get Ralph going,” says Thornthwaite in the video.

The two then-MLAs ended up seated together on a couch at an event at Capilano University, Thornthwaite said.

“Very, very close together for almost the entire time … we were supposed to be networking and all this, but Bowinn knows how to get you,” she said.

“Bowinn would be right up, right next to him, cuddling, cuddling, a little bit of cleavage there, and Ralph would be enthralled with her.” ...

BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, along with candidates Mike de Jong, Karin Kirkpatrick and Jordan Sturdy can be seen chuckling in response to the story.

Global News has requested comment from both Jane Thronthwaite and Bowinn Ma along with Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson about the video.

Thornthwaite responded to the video in a pair of tweets Sunday morning.

The candidate initially wrote that she has “huge respect for all women who push through glass ceilings. I’m one of them. So is Bowinn Ma. Ralph Sultan has the same respect and a soft spot for his fellow UBC engineer, and I made light of that at a roast,” she said.

In a follow-up tweet, Thornthwaite apologized “unreservedly.” “The comments I made at the roast for my colleague Ralph Sultan fell flat and were inappropriate,” she wrote. I have reached out to Bowinn Ma to apologize directly to her as well. I commit to doing better moving forward.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7391950/sexist-bc-liberals-take-fire-over-lea...

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has now also apologized over the sexist and racist comments made about NDP MLA Bowinn Ma.  The video of nine Liberals, including Wilkinson laughing at Thornewaite's comments can be viewed by clicking on "the release of a video" below.

BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has issued an apology to NDP candidate Bowinn Ma.

The apology comes after the release of a video showing BC Liberal party candidates laughing at sexist and misogynistic comments made about Ma.

In a statement on Twitter, Wilkinson acknowledged that BC Liberal candidate for North Vancouver-Seymour, Jane Thornthwaite, apologized for her comments about Ma during a virtual “roast” of Ralph Sultan, MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano, last month on a Zoom chat. ...

“Bowinn is a very pretty lady and she knows she’s got ‘it’ and she knows how to get Ralph going and this is my roast part for Ralph,” says Thornthwaite, who also went on to state Ma was “cuddling” and “showing a little bit of cleavage” while sitting on a couch with Sultan during an event at Capilano University.

The video shows Thornthwaite’s fellow candidates, including party leader Andrew Wilkinson, laughing along.

Wilkinson said upon reflection “those comments were inappropriate, and it was right for Jane to apologize. I want to apologize to [Bowinn Ma] as this never should have happened,” he said.

“I understand why many people are upset, and I continue to be committed to doing everything I can to make sure women are welcomed, encouraged, and treated with respect in politics and public life.”

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/andrew-wilkinson-apologizes-bowinn-ma-ndp

Two new polls show the NDP growing even higher in the polls although the growth is within the margin of error. Leger's new poll from October 6-9 shows the NDP up 3% to 50% compared to Leger's last poll, while the Liberals are at 35%, the Greens at 12% and Others at 3%. There are also some interesting views in the Leger poll on LGBTQ rights in BC. 

As B.C.’s three party leaders head into Tuesday’s (Oct. 13) televised debate, a new poll shows John Horgan’s NDP holding a comfortable, double-digit lead over Andrew Wilkinson and the B.C. Liberal Party.

According to the Leger poll released on Tuesday morning, the NDP have the support of 50 per cent of election-eligible adults surveyed, with the Liberals trailing at 35 per cent and the B.C. Green Party at 12 per cent. Those numbers are consistent with a similar Leger poll conducted shortly after the writ dropped on Sept. 24, when the NDP were at 47 per cent and the Liberals at 31 per cent.

By comparison, a poll conducted before the 2017 election, in which the NDP won a minority government, showed 40.4 per cent of election-eligible adults surveyed planned to cast their ballots for the Liberals, 40.3 per cent for the NDP and 16.8 per cent for the Greens.

Forty-nine per cent of those polled plan to vote by mail-in ballot, a much greater number than usual. “That’s a sizeable portion of voters,” Enns said. “It’s uncharted territory.”

Only 47 per cent of those surveyed in the recent poll plan to watch the leader’s debate. ...

The poll also gauged the potential political impact of an ongoing controversy within the B.C. Liberals over LGBTQ+ rights.

Langley East candidate Margaret Kunst has been criticized for refusing to support a rainbow crosswalk as a local councillor and Chilliwack-Kent candidate Laurie Throness has faced public backlash for supporting so-called conversion therapy.

Approximately 58 per cent of the respondents in the Leger poll said they are less likely to support a party if it allows candidates to run who have homophobic of anti-LGBTQ views. That figure rose to 65 per cent among Vancouver respondents.

Wilkinson has resisted calls to remove the candidates.

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/poll-finds-b-c-ndp-with-large-lead...