The costs of flattening the curve

Mobo2000 wrote:

Well, my personal practice is:   I follow the guidelines, I wear a mask, I don't go to raves or outdoor parties.   If I were to have anonymous sex in New York or BC I'd use a glory hole:  https://globalnews.ca/news/7204384/coronavirus-glory-holes-sex/[/quote]

This, along with Tam's advise to wear masks while kissing, is a perfect example of health officials missing the bigger picture. The message I've been hearing since the 1990s is that anonymous sex is a risk for spreading infection, and that aside from using condoms, taking time to get to know someone before becoming physically intimate was also important. That's the message that I think should be emphasised. Unfortunately, I think the kind of person who would have anonymous sex (especially without protection) is the kind of person who would ignore Tam's advice anyways. But at least by pivoting back to precautions that are already public knowledge, health officials maintain their credibility and don't subject themselves to ridicule.

Mobo2000 wrote:

Regarding mass events, I am saying that regardless of the efficacy of banning mass events, it is difficult and problematic for governments to enforce a ban on mass events, and even more difficult for me to get behind that enforcement.

One of the interesting things about regulations is that many European jurisdictions have relaxed restrictions on indoor gatherings as the first wave of the pandemic eased off. Sweden has enforced a hard cap on 50 people at events from the beginning and has not budged from that regardless of the trend in cases.

In other words, a permanent restriction on the right to free assembly made palatable by having people hold out hope for an ever-elusive vaccine that may never come.

Report on mental health during the pandemic:

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Many Canadians say their mental health is worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic and have reported an increase in alcohol consumption, according to a new survey by Nanos Research.

The survey of 1,003 Canadians, which was commissioned by CTV News, found that two in five Canadians said that their mental health is currently worse than before the pandemic. The survey also found that Canadians reported a 20 per cent increase in alcohol consumption compared to before the pandemic.

According to the survey results, four in 10 Canadians said their mental health is now worse (16 per cent) or somewhat worse (24 per cent) than it was in April during the early stages of the pandemic. At that time, 10 per cent of respondents reported worse and 28 per cent reported somewhat worse mental health.

Just under half of the respondents said their mental health is about the same as it was prior to COVID-19, while one in 10 Canadians said their mental health is better (four per cent) or somewhat better (seven per cent). One per cent of those surveyed said they were unsure.

What a finding. I thought that subjecting a population to gaslighting, fear-mongering,  psychological terrorism, browbeating, and emotional blackmail would have a positive impact on overall mental health. This comes as a complete shock to me!

Here is a news clip describing suicide calls in LA going from 20 to over 1800. As the reporters point out, the crisis workers dealing with these calls are also front line workers. You can say bring in more people to help, but remember that dealing with suicidal people takes a big toll on people's mental health. If something is increasing suicidal tendancies and thoughts in the population, that needs to be addressed.

Guess which generation is going to experience the worst reprecussions:

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The number of people being made redundant in the UK has risen at the fastest rate on record as the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic continue to bite, with the number of people aged 16-24 in work falling particularly sharply.

There has to be a better way to protect our elders than asking their grand children and great-grand children to sacrifice the same chances they had to live their lives.

Working from home has worked out for everyone:

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We traditionally tend to think of working from home as a perk. You can do your laundry while you work. You can stay in pajamas and control your own thermostat. You can take the dog for a walk. But after being abruptly forced to work from home full time this year, a lot of people have discovered they don’t like it nearly as much as they thought they would.

Of course, working from home in the midst of a highly stressful global crisis is different from doing it in normal times—especially if you add in the stress of child care. But a surprising number of people have told me they’re shocked by how eager they are to return to their offices once it’s safe to do so.

One of the biggest themes I’ve heard is that people simply miss their co-workers, and they miss the ease of collaborating in person.

Why is that surprising? In-person connection is a basic human need and is essential for survival, almost up there with food, water and air. The only people this came as a surprise to are those who have a vested interest in or were already advocating and believing that life would be so simple and care-free if we all just worked from home.

This is an interesting development:

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The suicide rate in B.C. has dipped during the COVID-19 pandemic, although more people are reaching out for help.

According to the B.C. Coroners Service, the suicide rate fell seven per cent from January to August compared to the same time last year.

However, experts warn that doesn’t mean people aren’t struggling with mental health issues.

Jonny Morris, CEO of the Canadian Mental Health Association in B.C., advises to treat the rate decrease with caution.

“Any reduction in the number of lives lost here in the province to suicide is, of course, a very very important development,” he said.

There have been well documented negative impacts on mental health with the response to covid. Yet it seems that the trend in BC has been the reverse of what you would expect. Anybody from BC care to weigh in with what they think is driving this?

Addictive behaviours taking their toll:

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The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on Canadians suffering from mental illness, opioid addiction and other substance abuse problems, says a new study released today by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) which confirms anecdotal reports warning that the pandemic's health consequences extend well beyond the novel coronavirus itself.

Efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 through social distancing and shutdowns have kept the Canadian caseload relatively low compared to other jurisdictions globally. But the overall health of the population has deteriorated over the last eight months, with more people turning to drugs, alcohol, tobacco and screen time over physical exercise to cope with the stress.

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Preliminary data from Ontario also show that the number of confirmed and probable deaths from opioid-related causes has increased by almost 50 per cent, from 148 deaths in January to 220 deaths in May.

Alberta also experienced a dramatic increase in opioid-related deaths in the three-month period from April to June 2020 — 302 deaths, up from the previously recorded high of 211 deaths in a three-month period in 2018.

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Meanwhile, many Canadians have increased their use of alcohol, cannabis and tobacco during this pandemic.

By early summer, based on surveys by Statistics Canada, close to one in five Canadians (19 per cent) said their consumption of alcohol had increased, cannabis use jumped 8.3 per cent and tobacco smoking rates were up by 3.9 per cent over pre-pandemic levels.

CBC North has documented a surge in alcohol and substance abuse in Canada's northern territories thanks in part to more bootlegging and access to cash through the Canadian emergency relief benefit (CERB) and other relief supports.

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Canada has gone from one of the happiest countries in the world — ninth out of 156 countries according to a 2019 UN report — to one that is noticeably less so.

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In 2018, 68 per cent of Canadians age 15 years and older reported excellent or very good self-perceived mental health. This figure dropped to 54 per cent in late March and early April 2020 before going lower still to 48 per cent in early May, according to Statistics Canada data.

Indigenous people, the disabled and low-income Canadians also have reported experiencing more suicidal thoughts since the outbreak, PHAC found.

With strict social distancing measures and limits on social gatherings in place, many Canadians feel isolated and are worried about the state of their friendships and familial relationships.

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With gyms closed in many jurisdictions and recreational sports leagues on pause, some Canadians are less active. Those who weren't particularly active before March 2020 lockdown reported being even less so in the months that followed.

More than 60 per cent of Canadians reported spending more time using the internet and watching TV during the pandemic in early April.

We have to destroy people's lives in order to save them!

But think of the children!

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While the world has battled the health and economic effects of the coronavirus, another global issue has raged in tandem with little notice – and without the additional money and resources needed to effectively battle it, experts said. Online child abuse and exploitation, already one of the biggest and growing crime challenges nationally, has spiked as the pandemic has forced more people indoors with abusers and children spending more time on the internet.

The increase in reports tracks in the United States and abroad during the pandemic, experts said. Tips to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, the clearinghouse for such information in the United States, nearly doubled from 6.3 million in the first half of 2019 to 12 million through June of this year. Reports of online enticement similarly spiked during that timeframe, from 6,863 to 13,268. 

"Online child exploitation right now is probably one of the biggest problems, from a crime perspective, in our country,"  said Lt. John Pizzuro, commander of the New Jersey Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force.

Many millions of images and videos of children and even newborn babies being raped and abused – or of children coerced into performing sex acts on camera – constantly ricochet across the internet. What may begin as seemingly innocent chatting between strangers online can lead to "sextortion," abduction and human trafficking, according to advocates and law enforcement.

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Once states started closing schools and issuing stay-at-home orders to try containing the coronavirus earlier this year, Alicia Kozak thought, "Oh no." 

"Children are going to be home from school, they're going to be home a lot more and they are going to be at great risk. And that happened pretty quickly," said Kozak, who, at age 13 in 2002, became the first known child to be abducted by an online predator.

Global progress on health care, poverty, education reversing:

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The 15-year global effort to improve the lives of people everywhere through the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 was already off track by the end of 2019. And now, in only a short period of time, the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed an unprecedented crisis, causing further disruption to SDG progress, with the world’s poorest and most vulnerable affected the most, according to a new report released today by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

According to the Sustainable Development Goals Report 2020, the world had been making progress—although uneven and insufficient to meet the Goals — in areas such as improving maternal and child health, expanding access to electricity and increasing women’s representation in government. Yet even these advances were offset elsewhere by growing food insecurity, deterioration of the natural environment, and persistent and pervasive inequalities.

Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has quickly become the worst human and economic crisis of our lifetime, spreading to all countries, with the global death toll exceeding 500,000 and the number of confirmed cases at more than 10 million people.

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Among the key findings:

• An estimated 71 million people are expected to be pushed back into extreme poverty in 2020, the first rise in global poverty since 1998. Lost incomes, limited social protection and rising prices mean even those who were previously secure could find themselves at risk of poverty and hunger.
• Underemployment and unemployment due to the crisis mean some 1.6 billion already vulnerable workers in the informal economy – half the global workforce – may be significantly affected, with their incomes estimated to have fallen by 60 per cent in the first month of the crisis.
• The more than one billion slum dwellers worldwide are acutely at risk from the effects of COVID-19, suffering from a lack of adequate housing, no running water at home, shared toilets, little or no waste management systems, overcrowded public transport and limited access to formal health care facilities.
• Women and children are also among those bearing the heaviest brunt of the pandemic’s effects. Disruption to health and vaccination services and limited access to diet and nutrition services have the potential to cause hundreds of thousands of additional under-5 deaths and tens of thousands of additional maternal deaths in 2020. Many countries have seen a surge in reports of domestic violence against women and children.
• School closures have kept 90 per cent of students worldwide (1.57 billion) out of school and caused over 370 million children to miss out on school meals they depend on. Lack of access to computers and the internet at home means remote learning is out of reach of many. About 70 countries reported moderate to severe disruptions or a total suspension of childhood vaccination services during March and April of 2020.
• As more families fall into extreme poverty, children in poor and disadvantaged communities are at much greater risk of child labour, child marriage and child trafficking. In fact, the global gains in reducing child labour are likely to be reversed for the first time in 20 years.

80 million children at risk as vaccination efforts disrupted:

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COVID 19 is disrupting life-saving immunization services around the world, putting millions of children – in rich and poor countries alike – at risk of diseases like diphtheria, measles and polio. This stark warning comes from the World Health Organization, UNICEF and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance ahead of the Global Vaccine Summit on 4 June, at which world leaders will come together to help maintain immunization programmes and mitigate the impact of the pandemic in lower-income countries.

According to data collected by the World Health Organization, UNICEF, Gavi and the Sabin Vaccine Institute, provision of routine immunization services is substantially hindered in at least 68 countries and is likely to affect approximately 80 million children under the age of 1 living in these countries.

Since March 2020, routine childhood immunization services have been disrupted on a global scale that may be unprecedented since the inception of expanded programs on immunization (EPI) in the 1970s. More than half (53%) of the 129 countries where data were available reported moderate-to-severe disruptions, or a total suspension of vaccination services during March-April 2020. 

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Many countries have temporarily and justifiably suspended preventive mass vaccination campaigns against diseases like cholera, measles, meningitis, polio, tetanus, typhoid and yellow fever, due to risk of transmission and the need to maintain physical distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Measles and polio vaccination campaigns, in particular, have been badly hit, with measles campaigns suspended in 27 countries and polio campaigns put on hold in 38 countries. At least 24 million people in 21 Gavi-supported lower-income countries are at risk of missing out on vaccines against polio, measles, typhoid, yellow fever, cholera, rotavirus, HPV, meningitis A and rubella due to postponed campaigns and introductions of new vaccines.

In late March, concerned that mass gatherings for vaccination campaigns would enflame transmission of COVID-19 WHO recommended countries to temporarily suspend preventive campaigns while assessments of risk, and effective measures for reducing COVID virus transmission were established.

WHO has since monitored the situation and has now issued advice to help countries determine how and when to resume mass vaccination campaigns. The guidance notes that countries will need to make specific risk assessments based on the local dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, the health system capacities, and the public health benefit of conducting preventive and outbreak response vaccination campaigns.

Excess deaths have gone up:

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Up to 21,000 people have died because of unintended consequences of lockdown – many due to a lack of access to healthcare, according to a shocking study. 

In the eight weeks after restrictions were put in place an average of almost 2,700 extra people died a week than would be usual for the time of year, despite Covid-19 not contributing to their deaths. 

Many of these victims died because they were unable to get urgent healthcare, it emerged last night.

There were warnings from doctors at the beginning of lockdown in March that there was a sharp drop in hospital attendance for emergencies such as heart attacks. 

It was reported that at one point the number of people going to A&E had halved, while cancer referrals had plunged by 70 per cent. 

Other studies have already suggested that a lack of access to urgent cancer care and a drop in referrals could lead to an extra 35,000 deaths a year. 

An earlier paper published in The Lancet Oncology found some lives will be 20 years shorter due to cancers that have been missed. 

This new study has raised the possibility that the wider impact of lockdown killed more people than the virus.

Social distancing protects the vulnerable:

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While many Manitobans have had to adjust to the COVID-19 lockdown, some of the province's most vulnerable citizens have lost social opportunities and access to resources, members of a Winnipeg community ministry say. 

In West Broadway, many community organizations have had to adjust their services since March, including the West Broadway Community Ministry. 

Before the pandemic, the community ministry, at the corner of Furby Street and Broadway, served as a drop-in for many of the city's most vulnerable citizens, including people living in poverty, or with addictions or disabilities. 

People "could come into the building, they come into the drop-in centre and sit there, have coffee, have a hot meal, chat or hang out," said Tammy Kutzak, a volunteer at West Broadway Community Ministry.

"It was a place where people go laugh, play cards. Some would have … a knitting group going on, and we have a seniors' group going, and we have [an] art group going. So there was stuff for people to do there." 

Now, with public gatherings in Manitoba limited to a maximum of five people, the ministry has had to halt its drop-in programming.

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Mark Olfert, who lives in West Broadway and volunteers at the ministry, said the feeling there has changed.

"Well, I felt kind of lonely … because over time you develop lots of good friendships. You get to know people and then it just feels like it's just [a] complete reversal … down to just seeing just a handful of people," he said.

"It was so different."

Connecting with others can be very important to improving health outcomes and helping to mitigate the effects of anxiety and depression, according to the Canadian Mental Health Association.

Staff at the community ministry say during the pandemic, they've observed the effects of losing that connection.

"I see an increase in aggression. I see an increase in violence on the streets," Rae said. 

"There are some issues with both increased drug use and inconsistent drug supplies, which have added to an increase in overdose deaths. I think we've lost at least at least five community members, since I started working here, to overdose."

laine lowe wrote:

Those dealing with poverty and homelessness are very vulnerable for catching the virus and it spreading in their community.

I think this kind of thinking is condescending and paternalistic. Nobody ever asked these people how they felt or what they needed, they just shut down the spaces that were important to them. I would think that people who identify as progressives would understand that. Whatever the risks were, I'm pretty sure if you asked these people what they needed, they would not have wanted the space closed down.

laine lowe wrote:

Is continuing drop in activities or religious services worth getting rates as high as those in Steinbach?

So instead we close down their spaces and expose them to risks of drug use (as mentioned in the article) and with winter approacing, freezing to death in the streets. But we can feel good about ourselves because at least we made sure they didn't die from covid.

By the way, the Manitoba government keeps good tabs on where outbreaks happen. Can you tell me how many outbreaks the province has recorded that are connected to any religious gatherings? How many deaths have been connected to those gatherings?

laine lowe wrote:

Do we need to risk getting to the point that we need to turn the convention centre and other large facilities into makeshift hospitals to deal with the overflow?

With the Convention Centre not being allowed to have large gatherings, maybe that's a worthwhile idea we should have explored from the start. I know the military was called in to help senior care centres in Ontario and Quebec, would they not have had addtional medical staff that could have been called in as extra support for our health care professionals?

laine lowe wrote:

If the worst case modeling projections come true (i.e. 800 new cases daily), that will likely happen.

Those models are trash. Most of them are wildly exaggerated and the only purpose of publishing them is to instill fear in the population. I actually minored in math in university (although not at the level of desigining models) and as someone who has that background in math, I would never advocate large-scale restrictions that we have seen based on what a model told us.

Suicide in Japan claims more lives than covid:

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In Japan, government statistics show suicide claimed more lives in October than Covid-19 has over the entire year to date. The monthly number of Japanese suicides rose to 2,153 in October, according to Japan's National Police Agency. As of Friday, Japan's total Covid-19 toll was 2,087, the health ministry said.

Japan is one of the few major economies to disclose timely suicide data -- the most recent national data for the US, for example, is from 2018. The Japanese data could give other countries insights into the impact of pandemic measures on mental health, and which groups are the most vulnerable.

"We didn't even have a lockdown, and the impact of Covid is very minimal compared to other countries ... but still we see this big increase in the number of suicides," said Michiko Ueda, an associate professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, and an expert on suicides.

"That suggests other countries might see a similar or even bigger increase in the number of suicides in the future."