The decline of the federal Conservatives founded in 2003

Provincial and federal government are very different animals. Ford won by default because the Liberals had been in power for so many years. While he is a Conservative he isn't dealing with the pressures of the abortion isssues nor oil. 

Harper won because people thought he was leading the Progressive Conservative Party. That's what "the Conserveratives" always meant. Social Conservatives within the New Conservative Party kept quiet for Harper because they believed he would act in their favor once he had a majority. Harper betrayed social conservatives. Canada is the only developed nation with no legal limits on abortion at all. 

Social conservatives are not selling the party as socially conservative. They are on a crusade to make it so by getting pro-life MPs elected by signing up pro-life members and it is working.  Leslyn Lewis was almost elected leader. O'Toole is also facing intense pressure to do something about oil and to adhere to small government low taxes mandra by fiscal free marketers. 

The "Conservative" party embraced the Evangelical movement, racists, free marketers and the oil industry. They cannot win elections without those groups but those are the very groups that (for the most part) alienate the RoC.

The problem is not that O'Toole can't win an election. He is very likeable. Much more so than Trudeau at this point.  It is that he can't win while pandering to western concerns.

The NDP should push the narrative that the Conservatives cannot win a majority. Hammer it in. Attack conservative ideology.  Highlight how well the NDP and Liberals have worked together in the past as minority governments. 

Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level. When the Conservatives are too weak to win the seat point that out. If you could win with the Green vote point that out. Talk a bit about PR and why the Liberals and Conservatives aer against it. Acknowledge its faults. Say there is no perfect system but there are ways to modify the system to suit Canada's specific needs. 

Pondering wrote:

"Ford won by default".

Misfit wrote: That is a strange response coming from someone who claims to support Jagmeet Singh and eco socialism. The NDP were in contention to win that election. The Liberals were in distant third place and we're on the verge of being wiped out completely.

They were momentarily in contention when the Conservatives either had no leader or still had the leader being accused of sexual misconduct.  Had that not changed then the NDP would have won by default. That is, voters were voting against the Liberals not for the NDP or Conservatives. The truth doesn't change based on who you support politically. 

 I am specifically a Lascaris eco-socialist not one in general because it may include positions I don't agree with.  

Pondering wrote:"Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level."

Misfit wrote: That is such a Liberal Party fantasy, and the Liberals and Leadnow promote exactly that during every Federal election to siphon away NDP support directly to the Liberal party. Strategic voting is so anti-NDP.

Like I said, not nationally. Lead now is national. The federal NDP are national. When I say riding level I mean riding level. I mean the MP in a specific riding in which the NDP are in contention but it could go Liberal. In the past Liberals scared voters into thinking the Conservatives might win so they better vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out. If the polls are showing that the Conservatives are not in contention nationally, the candidate can use that to reassure voters that they can still keep the Liberals in check by voting NDP to keep them to a minority. The NDP are not in contention to win the next election. There will be no orange wave in Quebec under Singh. 

Misfit wrote: Ontario has an oil industry and social conservstives are all across Canada. Leslyn Lewis is from Ontario and you cited her as being a real social Conservstive threat within the party. 

Of course there are social conservatives across the country. In most, but not all, areas there aren't enough of them to give the Conservatives seats without also attracting other voters through policy. Other oil producing areas don't feel alienated and have no problem with the Liberal government. 

Misfit wrote: And the Roman Catholic Church is staunchly anti-abortion yet  they are, by far, the largest religious denomination in Quebec.

I am Roman Catholic as was my husband and as is my daughter. At least that is what it says on our birth certificates. Quebec is a strong supporter of women's right to choose. Morgentaler was from here. Roman Catholic women marched in support of him when he was arrested. Roman Catholics are not Evangelical. Confess once a week and we're good. 

Pondering wrote "The "Conservative" party embraced the Evangelical movement, racists, free marketers and the oil industry."

Misfit wrote: Justin Trudeau just recently gave the "oil industry" billions of dollars.

Yeah and a lot of good it did him. How many seats did he win in Alberta? 

Misfit: Quebec is opposed to a pipeline in their province but that is not alienating people. That is anti western Canadian hatred coming from you.

I love the west. Quebecis not alienated. We're fine. 

O'Toole is specifically accusing Trudeau of being divisive and is constantly harping on western alienation. He got mixed up between Legault and voters. Legault wants to take over collecting and processing federal taxes. It is not something Quebecers want. Quebecers had to rely on the federal army to save us. Quebecers want federal money for infrastructure projects and anything else that comes up. We want more gun laws. We don't care what O'Toole thinks about the pipeline because it is not, under any circumstances, going through. We don't need O'Toole's reassurance because we are 100% confident on that. O'Toole also said he won't interfere with Bill 21. It doesn't matter.

O'Toole is trying to drag Quebec into his alienation narrative but we don't feel alienated. Legault wants more power not Quebecers. All we want is money. Trudeau will give us more than O'Toole. 

O'Toole is the one causing divisiveness by pushing the western alienation narrative and trying to drag Quebec into it. 

The RoC is focused on Covid and wants maximum support from the federal government. All the provinces need help. We don't care about the alienation thing. That doesn't mean we don't care about Alberta. It means this is the wrong time to demand special treatment. O'Toole is alienating the RoC from the Conservative party. 

Conservative ideology has nothing to offer but more of the same tax and service cuts. 

Another nail in O'Toole's coffin.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/joe-biden-president-canada_ca_5fa1d9...

Biden has said he will cancel Trump’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, which is expected to carry 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to Nebraska. ...

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said last month that halting the pipeline would “undermine the single most important trade relationship that the United States has in the world.” At a press conference last Friday, Trudeau noted that he has been a strong supporter of Keystone for seven years and pledged to keep championing the project.

O'Toole is going to be forced to play hardball on pushing Keystone through. He will be expected to bitterly criticize Trudeau for not getting it through. 

Most Canadians will be, "if the US says no, it's no, we can't force them". We want to mend the relationship with the US and  will not want disappointment over Keystone to damage our relationship in any way. O'Toole's Trump attack style is not going to play well with Canadians. It will underline how Alberta centric he is. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/erin-otoole-derek-sloan-vaccines-cov...

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole wouldn’t say Thursday if he has a problem with MP Derek Sloan’s sponsoring of an electronic petition that falsely casts doubt on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines at a time when the Tory leader is pushing to see vaccinations in Canada.

At a press conference in Ottawa, O’Toole faced several questions about Sloan’s involvement with an e-petition that calls COVID-19 vaccine developments “rushed,” and claims that “bypassing proper safety protocols means COVID-19 vaccination is effectively human experimentation.”

The petition was launched by Gisele Baribeau, the director of anti-vaccine group, Vaccine Choice Canada. It calls for the government to launch an independent committee that will include “citizen vaccine-safety advocates” and to “legally ensure COVID19 vaccines are voluntary.” ....

“You wonder why there are questions? Because we have a government that has been wrong on masks, wrong on human-to-human transmission, slow on all responses, partnering with China, and not answering basic questions like: do we have freezers ordered for the vaccine?” he said, weaving in Tory criticisms from the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic with its current focus on vaccines.

The majority of Canadians probably haven't and won't hear about this or understand what it is about. Even those that do will forget about it once the election rolls around.  (Along with accusing Trudeau of being divisive for introducting the anti-transition-therapy law and Sloan voted against it.  Again, most Canadians aren't paying attention. Sloan's base is. It will be of no significance to those focused on oil and the economy. O'Toole and Sloan are playing to the base whom they hope will remember and support them in the next election. You know who else will remember? The opposition parties and the media. Every effort is going to be made to exploit the 30% of the party who are Sloan followers. Abortion will come up as well as immigration.  Many Republicans vote republican because their family always has. They are not trumpers they are diehard Republicans voting based on what they percieve to be the ideology of the party. Small government and an unchanging constitution. 

 Canadians don't register as a member of a party. Few Canadians are of the my party do or die variety. Most Canadians are socially progressive or consider themselves as such. Transgender rights are a non-issue. Abortion is a non-issue. During election season the media will dig for every sensationalist story they can find. O'Toole can scream at the top of his lungs that he is personally pro-choice and will govern as such, but as long as the press can interview Sloane he and the party will be implicated. O'Toole accusing Trudeau of "partnering with China" will fall flat particularly with the Chinese community. More importantly it signals his direction for the election. He is trying to be Trump lite. 

Even more deliciously:

Poilievre and some conservative pundits have attracted criticism for advancing the idea that in the Liberals’ post-pandemic strategy lurks a nefarious desire to dramatically overhaul existing social and financial systems in a way designed to benefit elites.....

All of this Trump/social conservative/ conspiracy stuff is going to repel moderates. 

When pressed whether his party agrees on the problems, if not the solutions, Poilievre said Conservatives see things a different way: The Liberals talk about a reset while the Tories want an end to the “war on work.”

“People can yawn all they want when a conservative mentions the tax system,” he said. “But there is no doubt that when we have a tax system that punishes businesses and workers for producing then it becomes financially advantageous for everyone just to import cheaper goods from abroad.”...

So what should O’Toole do? Returning to the scene of our fire, the rookie Official Opposition leader must now put his foreman hat on and come back with a better plan than Trudeau on the rebuild. He must expand on his nascent efforts to reconnect with the working class and flesh out his plans to help women return to the workforce. He must explain how he will help create growth in this rapidly aging land. A new pandemic preparedness plan wouldn’t hurt either...

So what should O’Toole do? Returning to the scene of our fire, the rookie Official Opposition leader must now put his foreman hat on and come back with a better plan than Trudeau on the rebuild. He must expand on his nascent efforts to reconnect with the working class and flesh out his plans to help women return to the workforce. He must explain how he will help create growth in this rapidly aging land. A new pandemic preparedness plan wouldn’t hurt either.

The Conservtive mandra of cutting taxes and budgets for services will do nothing. O'Toole is following Trump but he is a day late and a dollar short. Trudeau has horseshoes. If the Conservatives had any chance it was ruined by the pandemic. His Conservative base will be happy but he won't pick up swing voters who are looking for big spending not cuts. 

The Conservatives may not be as bonkers as Qanon but it is close enough to doom the party federally. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7651921/conservative-conspiracies-liberals-al...

A Conservative MP accused Liberals of wanting to “normalize sexual activity with children” during a Zoom meeting with a university student group, according to a recording of the call released Friday....

In a statement obtained by The Canadian Press however, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole accused the Liberals of posting the video in order to distract from their failures in delivering promised shipments of the COVID-19 vaccines.

It doesn't matter why the video was posted the Liberals didn't invent it. To win the leadership, O'Toole had to give MPs freedom of conscience on votes and bills even as he was proclaiming himself pro-choice. They are not going to be quiet and the press and public will not ignore them. 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/ginny-roth-derek-sloan-and-pro-life-gro...

With the Conservative party convention approaching in March, members are meeting virtually across the country to elect delegates from every riding to vote on policy and elect a National Council (the party’s governing body which represents the interests of its members). You might expect that in the year of zoom meeting burnout, interest in attending virtually would be quite low. Instead, these local meetings have been heavily contested, as elements of the party organize to elect their own slates of delegates with the sole intention of undermining recently elected leader, Erin O’Toole.

The organizing appears to be driven by Derek Sloan, the failed leadership candidate who was recently kicked out of caucus, and the single-issue Campaign Life Coalition, an organization which seems to count its wins in number of political careers destroyed, rather than abortions averted. These rabble rousers are seeking to install their representatives into positions of power in the party, fixated on internal party policy, with no plan for Canada or perspective on how to win the next election.

The Conservative party has been cultivating the support of social conservatives. The Campaign Life Coalition is directly responsible for the rise of multiple MPs. This is nothing new. Of course they are trying to install representatives who agree with their policy positions. There is nothing nefarious about that. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/social-conservatives-conservative-pa...

Support for social conservative candidates on the first ballot grew to 35 per cent in this year’s contest compared to 16 per cent three years ago, the group said, calling the bloc a “major and irreplaceable” part of the Conservative base. 

They are not fringe rabble-rousers they represent 35% of those voting for the leadership. 

Patzer suggested while social conservatives are “definitely a strong part of the party,” continued focus on this faction misses higher priority concerns at the moment.

“I think the biggest thing that Canadians are looking at right now, and especially social conservatives, is we’re looking at how we’re going to proceed coming out of COVID-19,” the Cypress Hills–Grasslands MP said.

The party attracts social conservatives because of a lack of political alternatives, Patzer said.

“When you look at all the other federal parties, they don’t allow you to even have social conservative values per se, or have those social values like that,” he explained. 

“Social conservatives feel like this is the party where they can talk about the ideas and the things that matter to them and not be told that they have to park their values at the door.”

No, they want action not just talk. Harper convinced them that when he had a majority he would take action so to keep quiet until then. He gave them nothing. They won't fall for that again. Harper was able to silence MPs based on getting a majority.  That there is no other party for them is why they are focused on electing "pro-life" MPs at the local level.  They may not have another political home but not voting is an option. 

O'Toole is trying to take the position that they can speak out but it makes no difference because he is pro-choice. He's wrong. Too many of his MPs are going to remind voters of what's been going on in the US and Qanon's theories of a mass child trafficking ring and nobody is interested in having debates about abortion. The sex-selective thing is old news and failed the first time. Voters in central Canada are going to want to stay away from the crazies after seeing what happened down south. We have seen what happens when individual politicians are allowed to promote crazy extremist views. Accusing Liberals of wanting to have sex with children is not harmless. Speaking and voting against the bill banning conversion therapy is not harmless even if it had no impact on the bills passage. 

From the first article...

There are not many mainstream conservatives comfortable describing themselves as social conservatives these days and it’s not hard to understand why. Despite many Canadians passionately describing their personal political convictions as centering around the role of the family and the community, social conservatives in Canada are understood to be single-issue outsiders, intent on disrupting, rather than building — opposing rather than governing. Unfortunately, the lead up to the Conservative party’s upcoming convention demonstrates exactly why a vocal few party members are giving social conservatives a bad name.

It isn't a vocal few; they represent 35% of the party. Family-centered and oriented does not equal social conservative. They are not single-issue "outsiders" but their focus is on abortion and gay/transgender rights. It is the "social" part of "social conservative".  Take that away and they would just be "conservatives". 

Provincially conservatives will continue to do fine but federally they can't win anymore. If the Liberals did something so catastrophic I can't even imagine I think the votes would go NDP/Green before they would go Conservative. The Conservatives could still get a longshot minority but even that is slipping farther out of reach each passing year.  Social conservatives, racists and the oil lobby doom them long term.

It's encouraging to see the NDP is benefiting from the Conservative drop rather than the Liberals.  I am hopeful that someday Alberta will switch to the NDP federally although I won't hold my breath. 

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-conservatives-are-justi...

The climate question came up on Friday. A fierce debate on whether the party should officially acknowledge climate change exists. ...

 Oh, and the party faithful ignored their leader, and voted against a resolution that would add to the platform the phrase: “We recognize that climate change is real.”

There you have it in a nutshell: O’Toole has to sell himself to an electorate that’s seeking a realistic option to the swaggering and empty-headed Liberals, while heading a party that’s still bickering over ideas the majority of Canadians have long since accepted.....

Here’s the reality: a party subservient to social conservatives is never going to govern Canada. The socially conservative wing of the party can either accept that and make the necessary compromises, or break off and join Maxime Bernier in shouting at the indifferent. Sorry, but that’s the choice. The prime minister is counting on Tories making the wrong one.

No that isn't the choice. They can continute their riding by riding takeover. They can continue insisting that the leadership take up their issues. They don't care if it means the party loses. They know better than to give up the Conservative name now that they are back in the party and have lots of power within it. They made O'Toole and they can and will break him for betraying them.

Well he did put on his climate change hero uniform. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/erin-otooles-faces-backlash-from-...

O’Toole claims his own fuel charge — which would stop rising at $50 per tonne — isn’t a carbon tax because the money goes into a personalized savings account that consumers can spend on government-approved, environmentally-friendly purchases....

“The (carbon price) isn’t just about dollars and cents,” this person said. “It’s become a culture war thing.”

https://nowtoronto.com/news/who-does-erin-otoole-think-hes-kidding

Even the usually fawning conservative members of the media couldn’t contain their revulsion. The usually apologetic National Post ran a number of articles in its Monday edition offering analysis. Every one painted a bleak picture of a party – and leader – in disarray.....

On that front, steps were taken before the convention to dissolve the riding association of former leadership contender Derek Sloan – so he couldn’t stack the convention with an anti-abortion crowd – and prevent the candidacy to the party’s national council of former federal candidate Ghada Melek over anti-Muslim comments she’s made in the past......

He’s changed tack recently, giving the boot from caucus to anti-vaxxer Sloan and demoting loudmouth Pierre Poilievre from his finance critic role. The new(er) Erin O’Toole is decidedly less the “true blue” conservative he painted himself as to win the leadership. He and his advisers now seem to have made the decision to go after Red Tories that deserted the Cons in 2015 for the Liberals – as well as whatever votes they can scrape from the NDP by pretending to be the party of the working class. 

Who is O’Toole kidding? Those voters will never come back. O’Toole saw to that – he alienated the wing of the party that supported Peter MacKay for leader.

But O’Toole has a bigger problem. The Conservative party of 2021 is arguably more of an ideological rump in Canada than it was under its previous incarnations as Reform and the Canadian Alliance.

As other political pundits have noted post-convention, somewhere along the way, winning became the only thing for the Cons, even if that meant embracing extremist elements on the right.

Therein lies the doom coming for the Conservatives. It's different in the US.  They are, or were, 50/50 Republican/Democrat and the Christian thing is much bigger in the US. Their anti-abortion movement is much larger.  White supremists call the Republican party home. Most Canadians are shocked and appalled that Trump ever became President. That he almost won a second term is mind-boggling. The parties in the US are tribal so many Republicans vote for the party not the leader.

That is not the case in Canada. We have some voters who are dedicated to a party but we have a large number of swing voters. Federally, the default seems to go to the Liberals as the middle of the road party.  When Canadians become disgusted by them the Conservatives get a chance at the wheel. Only that isn't happening this time and it won't happen any more. 

It won't happen because Conservatives fed the beasts and now they won't go away. They started the notion of a culture war and social Conservatives are not letting it go. 

O'Toole can pivot to the centre all he wants. A large number of Conservatives won't stand for it and they will get press because when push comes to shove click-bait wins the day. 

Climate change deniers, anti-abortionists, anti-immigrationists, anti-LBGTQ, all found a comfortable home in the Conservative party. O-Toole can't win an election with those elements vying for airtime. Those elements don't mind losing the election. O-Toole betrayed them and they want him gone. They don't want him to win the election.

They form a large element withing the party. Perhaps not the majority but big enough that they cannot be ignored. That is why all the leaders and hopefuls court them. The party is in a catch 22. 

I predict the NDP will eventually become the default party when the Liberals are too sickening for Canadians to stomach. 

This is from the National Post, hardly a Liberal rag.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/michael-taube-heres-what-otoole-needs-t...

O’Toole and the Conservatives are drowning in most opinion polls. The party’s middling popular support has averaged between 28 and 30 per cent in April and May. The gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is as low as 2-3 per cent (Angus Reid, April 25 and Leger, May 9), and as high as 9.9-11 per cent (EKOS, May 6 and Ipsos, April 21) ......

Could this perception enable the Liberals to lead Canada for a generation (or more) if the Conservatives are viewed as rudderless and left-leaning parties like the NDP and Greens remain stuck in the mud?...

Nevertheless, the O’Toole Conservatives must continue to promote an alternative political and economic vision that will appeal to Canadians from all walks of life.

Here are several ways to do it.

First, Conservatism must be sold as an all-encompassing political strategy. It will keep your taxes low and protect your wallet, but also have compassion for you and your families in times of need. It must be something, and mean something, for every Canadian.

Second, Conservatives know big government isn’t the answer — but a small, focused and effective government is always the best solution. Government will protect important social services such as health care and employment insurance, but find ways to work with private providers to reduce inefficiency and red tape.

Third, Conservatives succeed when they create positive political strategies rather than feeding off negative energy. Opposing the Liberals is important, but Canadians want strong policies that reduce taxes, promote families, rebuild our military and protect us from another global pandemic, among others. That’s the key to political success.

The Liberals could lead for a generation or more and they can see it. They still think Canadians want our military "rebuilt".  On the sex scandals sure but for the rest spending on the military is not popular with Canadians. We want "peacekeepers" not warriors. Canadians want higher taxes on the wealthy.

Conservatives simply have nothing to offer anymore because they are not centrist. The NDP is more centrist than the NewCP if you look at Canadian sentiment. 

Who didn't see this coming:

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole told Montreal's La Presse newspaper that he believes Quebec is able to alter parts of the Constitution by itself.

But earlier on Tuesday, Michelle Rempel Garner, an Alberta MP and the party's health critic, posted her own reaction, suggesting Trudeau was setting a dangerous precedent.

"So ... by the same token, Alberta should be able to unilaterally amend Section 36 of the Constitution Act?" she wrote on Twitter, referring to the section of the Constitution that covers equalization payments.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-canada-constitution-chang...

Any hope the Conservatives had in downplaying the western alienation thing in the next election is doomed. There is zero hope of amending the equalization payment system.  Doesn't look like the unity thing is going very well for the Conservatives. 

https://abacusdata.ca/liberal-fortunes-improve-lead-by-10/

Bruce Anderson: Their support is softer in the Prairies and rivals on the right are making it more difficult for Mr. O’Toole to fashion a story of momentum, or to find a platform that is uniting western and eastern conservatives, and captivating for non-conservatives. 

The problem for the Conservatives is no such messaging exists or can exist. O'Toole is trying Republican lite and that won't even be good enough for much of the Conservative base while it will repel swing voters. 

Yesterday O'Toole said this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/otoole-activists-canada-day-1.6076752

Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole said today he's troubled by the cancellation of Canada Day celebrations in some municipalities and accused "a small group of activist voices" of continually talking down the country rather than acknowledging its many successes.....

O'Toole said the recent Kamloops residential school discovery is "very troubling" and "dreadful." He called it evidence of the "grave injustices" committed against Indigenous peoples.

But the reported discovery of these remains shouldn't lead cities like Victoria, Penticton, B.C. and La Ronge, Sask. to do away with July 1 festivities altogether, O'Toole said....

O'Toole sought to link the municipal cancellations to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He accused the Liberal government of standing by silently while some cities do away with planned celebrations. "Who is asking Canadians whether they want Canada Day to be cancelled?" O'Toole said.

Hundreds more bodies of children have been found in unmarked graves, and there will be more. They were thrown out like trash. Families were never informed. It is horrific and O'Toole is trying to politicize it. He could not be more tone deaf. This will repel swing voters.