NDP has gained significantly over the UCP since '19 election: What does Rachel Notley have to do now to ensure AB NDP win again?

Looks promising to me. I don't see Alberta going Liberal federally anytime soon. It would be great if the federal NDP could make some inroads. Is that a possibility?

These polls lead to lots of questions, including even within their own data. 

Léger suggests the NDP would overwhelm the UCP by 49 per cent to 14 per cent in Alberta's capital. But while it shows the NDP leading in rural areas and Calgary, it's not by so much that there isn't plenty of potential for the governing party to turn things around in two years. So the last thing NDP supporters should do is start thinking and acting as if another orange wave in 2023 is inevitable.

Angus Reid concludes the UCP still leads outside Edmonton and Calgary in both the north and south.

Still, results like this do indicate New Democrats can expect to hang onto their orange fortress in the capital region, a solid base from which to mount a campaign, and it offers hope of a path to victory in '23.

But even if we believe the Léger poll's indicated split of 36 to 34 per cent in the NDP's favour in Calgary, that's close enough anything could happen in an actual election, especially one that isn't going to happen any time soon. It's also close enough for the Alberta Party, one supposes, to tilt the election one way or another or end up holding the balance of power.

Given the time to the next election, I wouldn't advise betting your garden plot in Strathcona, let alone your entire farm, on the predictive power of either of these polls. It's some of the other speculative possibilities that are more interesting just now.

For example, the Angus Reid survey says Albertans are profoundly unimpressed by the UCP's 2021 budget. It also indicates NDP supporters are much more likely to support a sales tax. But a strong majority of Albertans, about 60 per cent according to both polls, continues to oppose the idea of a sales tax.

In his February 25 budget speech, Finance Minister Travis Toews said "a third-party review of the efficiency and appropriateness of our revenue structure will be important in the future." At least one prominent commentator took that as a hint of a UCP sales tax to come.

So, could the NDP, despite the fact its supporters are supposedly more likely to support the idea, attack the UCP as being inclined to impose such a tax if the party gets a second mandate?

And what if the narrative continues to be widely accepted that Kenney himself is now the UCP's principal problem? Could the government caucus in the legislature decide they'll need to put him on a train for Ottawa sooner than later to save their owns skins?

It's happened before -- most recently seven years ago this Monday, when the Progressive Conservative caucus gave premier Alison Redford the "work plan" that led to her announcement four days later she was quitting.

Premier Kenney may have created the UCP in his own image, but former Wildrose leader Brian Jean obviously still casts covetous eyes on the party that he may feel, with justice, he was cheated out of leading. The RCMP may yet have something to say about that, too.

https://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2021/03/two-bad-polls-one...

NorthReport wrote:

With a solid NDP Government lead by Premier John Horgan in BC, and the increasing likelihood of another Rachel Notley-led NDP Government in Alberta, it appears that finally a major political shift is taking place in at least Western Canada

It appears that western Canadians don't want those sleazy lying Liberals any more.

The only province in western Canada where the contest is NDP vs. Liberal in any meaningful way is BC, and even there, the Liberals are not really Liberals in the way that the concept is generally understood elsewhere in Canada.

NorthReport wrote:

Bye, bye Jason, and welcome back Rachel https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/04/16/How-Conservative-Resistance-Crumb...

Why are you cheering? Seems like a case of premature genuflection. If they follow the provincial election rules they have two more years of power to fuck things up even more. If they revert to the Canadian constitution they can hang on to power for three more years.

Time left until next Alberta set Election Day - PolitiClock

Countdown to: Wed May 31 2023 *

2 years; 1 month; 12 days

25 months; 12 days

110.5 weeks

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