Taiwan

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NorthReport
Taiwan

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NorthReport
NorthReport

Same old game playing out in Strait of Taiwan, but risks of disaster are higher

Most news agencies reported Sunday that China sent large groups of fighters and bombers into Taiwanese airspace two days in a row. Much fluttering in the dovecote: the Chinese are testing the resolve of newly installed U.S. President Joe Biden.

Considerably fewer agencies also reported that an American aircraft carrier group sailed between Taiwan and the Philippines into the South China Sea at the same time. Yet the American warships must have sailed first. It takes time to get there from the U.S. navy’s Pacific bases.

Given the timing, it was probably ex-president Trump who gave the order to sail; however, Biden had just enough time to countermand it if he was willing to take the blame for “betraying” the Taiwanese, who are understandably nervous about U.S. willingness to defend them from a Chinese attack.A He didn’t give that order.

What China did was not illegal. The Chinese aircraft only entered Taiwan’s unilaterally declared air defence identification zone, which is not sovereign Taiwanese territory. They were almost certainly responding to the U.S. naval presence, and the actions of both sides are entirely legal and purely symbolic. Nobody is going to get hurt this time, but there will be a next time.

https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-same-old-game-playing-out-in...

kropotkin1951

So NR  are you not aware of the fact that Taiwan is an island province of China. The Chinese flew airplanes in their own airspace and you think it is a provocation. The fascists losers of the Chinese civil war fled to Taiwan and from 1949 to 1972 they insisted that China was one country and they were the rightful government and most of the "free" world agreed with them. The Chinese government allows them far more autonomy over their affairs than the US allows Puerto Rico. I also know that if one believes in the people ruling then it has to be noted that the Taiwanese are almost equally split over whether they want to be controlled by China or be independent. The best thing for them would be for us imperialists to just let them decide for themselves.

NDPP

US Sends Another Warship Through Taiwan Strait

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/02/25/us-sends-another-warship-through-tai...

"A US warship sailed through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Wednesday, the second such passage under the Biden administration. The US Navy's 7th Fleet said the guided missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur made the provocative maneuver. Beijing denounced the provocation..."

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

So NR  are you not aware of the fact that Taiwan is an island province of China. The Chinese flew airplanes in their own airspace and you think it is a provocation. The fascists losers of the Chinese civil war fled to Taiwan and from 1949 to 1972 they insisted that China was one country and they were the rightful government and most of the "free" world agreed with them. The Chinese government allows them far more autonomy over their affairs than the US allows Puerto Rico. I also know that if one believes in the people ruling then it has to be noted that the Taiwanese are almost equally split over whether they want to be controlled by China or be independent. The best thing for them would be for us imperialists to just let them decide for themselves.

Taiwan independence - Wikipedia 

----------------

Public opinion

According to an opinion poll conducted in Taiwan by the Mainland Affairs Council in 2019, 27.7% of respondents supported Taiwan's independence: 21.7% said that the status quo has to be maintained for now but Taiwan should become independent in the future, while 6% said that independence must be declared as soon as possible. 31% of respondents supported the current situation as it is, and 10.3% agreed to unification with the mainland with 1.4% saying that it should happen as soon as possible.[44]

Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation poll conducted again in June 2020 showed, 54% of respondents support official independence for Taiwan: 23.4 percent prefer maintaining the status quo, 12.5 percent favor unification with China, and 10 percent do not hold any particular view on the matter. This represents the highest level of support for Taiwan's Independence since the survey was first conducted in 1991.[45]

----------------

Accordng to these polls few Taiwanese want to be controlled by China. Almost 90% seem to want Taiwan to be sovereign, either as an independent province or independent state.

kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

Accordng to these polls few Taiwanese want to be controlled by China. Almost 90% seem to want Taiwan to be sovereign, either as an independent province or independent state.

I love your math. 54 + 24= nearly 90, not even nearly 80 but nearly 90. Exaggerating is a piss poor debating technique.

Here is a link to the actual survey's done by MAC and they clearly show that the people of Taiwan don't support being a Chinese province especially in the long run. However the idea that, "almost 90% seem to want Taiwan to be sovereign" seems to be a conclusion you have drawn. Here is the latest 2020 MAC poll and their quote about that issue. This poll does clearly show that 90% the people of Taiwan do not want the Chinese military playing war games in the Strait. You would have made an excellent point for your argument if you had emphasized that instead.

By the way MAC is a Taiwanese government agency that does polling among many other things but its primary purpose is Cross Strait relations with China, Hong Kong and Macau. In the meantime Canada and the US should stay the fuck out of the internal affairs of other countries. After all if you believe in democracy you should respect the fact that nearly 90% of the people of Taiwan support the status quo because frankly who needs endless war to gain some nebulous "freedom." I emphasized the quote so you can't miss it.

More than 80% support that Taiwan's future and the development of cross-Strait relations must be decided by the 23 million people of Taiwan (86.4%). People in favor of "maintaining the status quo defined in a broad sense" still account for the great majority of the public (87.6%), maintaining a long-term stable trend. Regarding the current pace of cross-Strait exchanges, 43.7% of the public believe the pace to be "just right," while 7.5% and 32.6% believe it to be "too fast" and "too slow," respectively.

https://ws.mac.gov.tw/001/Upload/297/relfile/8010/6039/754712bc-be5f-4ad...

JKR

I think it's fair to say that most Taiwanese support basically the status quo, namely maintaining their independence from China without becoming an independent state.

kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

I think it's fair to say that most Taiwanese support basically the status quo, namely maintaining their independence from China without becoming an independent state.

Wow you agree with the poll. What do you think is a proper role for Canada in this matter? Should they be playing war games in the Strait and should we be funding political parties and movements inside Taiwan? Personally I believe in sovereign nations being governed by their own people and so I really wish my government would stop spending my tax dollars on imperial war games on the other side of the Pacific.

JKR

 

Poll shows highest ever support for Taiwan independence

---------------

Over 50% of Taiwanese favor de jure sovereign state, less than 13% support unification with China.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Over half of Taiwanese support formal independence for their country, according to a survey released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) on Monday (June 22).

Around 54 percent of respondents support official independence for Taiwan. Meanwhile, 23.4 percent prefer maintaining the status quo, 12.5 percent favor unification with China, and 10 percent do not hold any particular view on the matter, the survey found.

----------------

kropotkin1951

Wow you agree with the poll. What do you think is a proper role for Canada in this matter? Should they be playing war games in the Strait and should we be funding political parties and movements inside Taiwan? Personally I believe in sovereign nations being governed by their own people and so I really wish my government would stop spending my tax dollars on imperial war games on the other side of the Pacific.

 

JKR

I basically agree with you. Sovereign nations should be governed by their own people and Canada should only intervene in other nations if the U.N. Security Council explicitly supports such an extreme action.

NDPP

Microchips and the Macro World: Semiconductor Shortage Ushers in East-West Tech War

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1365420453188284420

"If Taiwan were no longer the center of the semiconductor manufacturing universe, would the US relinquish its influence over the island or would it continue to use it as a pawn against...the next global nemesis of the 'free world'?"

melovesproles

only intervene in other nations if the U.N. Security Council explicitly supports such an extreme action.

I highly doubt that will ever happen again after what happened with Libya. Those days are over unless there is a complete rehaul of the UN Security Council.

JKR

I don't see the U.S. or China giving up their vetoes or being forced to. Russia, France and the UK might be "persuaded" to but they would require something big in return. Maybe the Security Council could be expanded to the top fifty countries according to population with the current vetoes remaining with China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US?

kropotkin1951

The UN is now as irrelevant to the world as the League of Nations was in 1936 because the US/NATO empire does not follow international law and the UN has no way to enforce it. Canada follows the US in illegal sanctions against other countries and in illegal incursions into sovereign territories and the UN says nothing.

Michael Moriarity

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The UN is now as irrelevant to the world as the League of Nations was in 1936 because the US/NATO empire does not follow international law and the UN has no way to enforce it. Canada follows the US in illegal sanctions against other countries and in illegal incursions into sovereign territories and the UN says nothing.

I agree with all points.

NDPP

Empire strikes back: China deploys fighter jets to Taiwan

https://youtu.be/Kcjzu5bvLbY

"Ever greater closeness between Taiwan and Washington, puts the longstanding 'One China' doctrine in jeopardy..."

NDPP

Empire strikes back: China deploys fighter jets to Taiwan

https://youtu.be/Kcjzu5bvLbY

"Ever greater closeness between Taiwan and Washington, puts the longstanding 'One China' doctrine in jeopardy..."

NDPP

An excellent historical backgrounder as well:

Why Taiwan is an Explosive Flashpoint For A US-China War

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/10/16/taiw-o16.html

"As the Biden administration ramps up its aggressive confrontation with China, Taiwan is rapidly becoming the most immediate and dangerous flashpoint for war between the world's two largest economies - both armed with nuclear weapons.

To understand the great dangers posed by the Biden administration's deliberately inflammatory actions, it is necessary to examine the historical background. To justify its menacing military build-up in the region and the inflaming of this flashpoint, the US portrays Taiwan as a thriving democracy confronted with a growing Chinese threat of aggression.

Taiwan, today, separate from China, is the creation of US imperialism..."

NDPP

Chinese military condemns US & Canada warships in Taiwan Strait

https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris/status/1449903008863694852

"Yet again, Canada's government is acting as a vassal of the US government. [Meanwhile on babble: 'We Love Biden!'] Sending a Canadian warship through the Taiwan Strait is a needless provocation that will do nothing to advance a peaceful resolution of disputes between China and Taiwan."

Rikardo

What is a Canadian warship doing in the waters  between Mainland China and its province Taiwan?  Imagine a Chinese warship in the Gulf of St. Lawrence or in the Gulf of Mexico between Mainland USA and the US territory of Puerto Rico. Why does Canada act as a colony of the USA?  Taiwan is none of their business either, but historically the USA militarily supported the KMT of Chiang, losers, in 1949, of the Chinese Civil War, to the GCD-Gong Chan Dang  (Party-Communist-Mao).  Chiang, on Taiwan, was recognized as President of Mainland China by the USA until 1975. 

Pondering

Taiwan does not consider itself a province of China and it runs itself independently. The people of Taiwan do not want reunification. If ever they did Hong Kong taught them better. 

Taiwan would rather deal with the US than China. That is their choice to make. The US is there out of self-interest but they are not imposing on Taiwan. 

Do we just take the side of whomever is against the US?

Pondering

Michael Moriarity wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The UN is now as irrelevant to the world as the League of Nations was in 1936 because the US/NATO empire does not follow international law and the UN has no way to enforce it. Canada follows the US in illegal sanctions against other countries and in illegal incursions into sovereign territories and the UN says nothing.

I agree with all points.

Me too.

kropotkin1951

Pondering wrote:

Taiwan does not consider itself a province of China and it runs itself independently. The people of Taiwan do not want reunification. If ever they did Hong Kong taught them better. 

Taiwan would rather deal with the US than China. That is their choice to make. The US is there out of self-interest but they are not imposing on Taiwan. 

Do we just take the side of whomever is against the US?


First of all you state that "the people of Taiwan do not want reunification." That is not true. The majority of people in Taiwan want peace and security and the parties that run in their elections are split and no more monolithic than in Canada.

The modern Taiwan is a settler nation that was born in 1950. Prior to that it had been a Japanese colony with a small population. The Losers in the civil war invaded the Island and displaced the inhabitants and became the new government. That happens when you and your army move into a small Island. The government was a fascist dictatorship for many decades before the people got any kind of elections. That fascist dictatorship caused the dilemma that we are in today. They with the backing of the US, until the 1970's" proclaimed that they were the real government of all of China and that the CPC did not run a legitimate government. History has hoisted them on that petard. Some of the parties in Taiwan's "democracy" still believe that China is one country and that the CPC will be ousted and they will become the government.

NorthReport

Let's give peace a chance

Will China invade Taiwan?

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/opinion/dyer-will-china-invade-taiwan-4...

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:
Let's give peace a chance

Will China invade Taiwan?

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/opinion/dyer-will-china-invade-taiwan-4...

"And the United States, while not directly promising to defend the island at the expense of a war with China, let it be known there are U.S. special forces and Marines in Taiwan on training missions. Beijing already knew that, of course (former U.S. president Donald Trump sent them there two years ago), but Washington’s open confirmation of it was a clear warning to China."

This paragraph says it all. Just in case anyone thinks that China is the aggressor in this US lead power play.

NDPP

Ottawa needs to develop a modern policy for Taiwan*

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ottawa-needs-to-develop-...

*No it doesn't because Washington has quite obviously already developed one for Ottawa already. And one that the customary contingent of Canadian 'progressives' including the Hill+Knowlton party will endorse, cheerlead and run interference for just as they always do.

"...Today's Taiwan also exists under constant threat of annexation - and at risk is the stability of the entire Indo-Pacific region. The continuous military presence of like-minded countries in the region therefore provides an essential deterrent against a Chinese attack on Taiwan. If we are to do our part in this endeavour, we must make sure we have the capabilities to do so..."

Despite the frequent protestations that 'Canadians aren't interested in foreign policy', one can always count on exceptions being made in the case of official warmongering & 'calls to arms' against Washington's perceived rivals/enemies Russia or China. Perhaps this will help...

"Power is controlling what happens; absolute power is controlling what people think is happening. Imperial narrative control is therefore the source of all our biggest problems..."

https://caityjohnstone.medium.com/it-takes-a-lot-of-education-to-keep-us...

NDPP

Formosa Betrayed

https://www.taiwanbasic.com/key/dc/fbetrayed.htm

https://sites.google.com/juas.42web.io/david032/pdfkindle-read-formosa-b...

"Formosa betrayed is not just a masterpiece on the tragic incident of 2-28-1947, it is the US military blueprint of the undefined status of Taiwan under a peace treaty in 1942. Moreover, the secrets of the Taiwan Relations Act can be unlocked by carefully reviewing this book.

Few readers may realize that Lt George Kerr was a US Naval Civil Affairs Officer during the World War and how he has single-handedly established the credible evidence of the Nationalist Chinese illegal seizure of Taiwan territory before the Japanese had even surrendered the island in the 1952 treaty..."

'For anyone interested in Taiwanese history, this is a must-read. It covers the despicable hand-off of Taiwan to the KMT fascists from China and in particular the 1947 massacre of Taiwanese bureaucrats and intellectuals. Some 30,000 were murdered at this time...'

NDPP

US Marines on Taiwan: Major Provocation...

https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2021/10/us-marines-on-taiwan-major-pr...

"Western media and Western governments themselves have deliberately misled the public into thinking Taiwan is an independent country and that China is 'bullying' it.

In one breath, commentators will claim Taiwan is a 'democratic country,' while in the next claiming that Taiwan declaring its 'independence' is imminent. Left unexplained is how an independent, democratic country could declare independence - declare independence from whom, and why they would need to in the first place.

At face value the narrative is a contradiction, but like so much of what the West does geopolitically, its narrative regarding Taiwan is based on a multitude of conflicting lies aimed at preying on the public emotionally, diverting attention away from contradiction, and in the case of the One China Policy, simply omitting it from public discussion.

Considering the United States' official stance on Taiwan, its placement of US forces on Taiwan is essentially a de facto invasion and occupation of Chinese territory...In Taiwan's case, the US actually is clearly involved in shaping the opinions of the Taiwanese population as well as directing the moves of the current government. The Taiwanese are not arriving at the decision to pursue independence on their own.

A 'declaration of independence' by Taiwan would at the very least cause China to constrict economic flows to and from Taiwan, strangling the economy and undermining the government responsible for provoking Beijing in ways a military assault on the island could never achieve. The United States has neither the means nor the time left before China irreversibly surpasses the US economically and militarily, rendering whatever military presence the US has on the island moot and allowing Beijing wide leeway for actions to reintegrate the wayward province.

US provocations including the new unprecedented deployment of US troops on Taiwan and those within the Taiwanese administration aiding and abetting them threaten the current status quo which includes the smooth, incremental integration of Taiwan into a growing prosperous mainland China. The current status quo represents the 'peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question' as agreed to by the US government itself with Beijing in its communiques.

The issue is not that this settlement stands in contradiction of Taiwan's best interest or Beijing's, but rather Washington's. And it is based on this actual pretext that the US has involved itself in China's internal affairs in this highly provocative and dangerous manner, threatening war where the prospect of war did not exist, and inching the entire Indo-Pacific region toward conflict and instability - the same conflict and instability the US claims it is protecting the region and the world from."

Pondering

If Taiwan were Chinese territory China would already have control over it. It has not been fully recognized as an independent country but it is governed as one. 

This is very comprehensive polling on what the people of Taiwan want. It is very long with a multitude of different questions asked. I am only quoting the conclusions.

Conclusion: What Does This Tell Us?

First, as Taiwanese identity grows over time and Taiwan’s democratic governance and liberal principles become a greater foil to the so-called “China model” of governance promoted by Beijing, support for Taiwan-centric actions (such as constitutional reform to change the country’s name) will likely continue to grow among the Taiwanese public (SCMP, May 25, 2019; Taiwan News, April 17; Taiwan News, July 22; Channel News Asia, September 2). These actions, while not explicit moves towards formal independence, are indicative of a decline in public support for unification.

Second, it will become harder for PRC officials to maintain the fantasy narrative of broad popular support in Taiwan for unification, and PRC disinformation campaigns targeting Taiwanese public opinion will likely be increasingly contested by independence-oriented politicians (SCMP, January 7; Recorded Future, April 29; IRI, August 25). With declining support for unification under any conditions, we may see a stronger push for more overt influence and disinformation campaigns from mainland China, which will risk exacerbating the sovereignty problem. Lastly, analysts should pay greater attention to interpreting Taiwanese public support for the status quo; and also to examining how the aforesaid “status quo” is defined in the popular consciousness. Rather than seeing support for the status quo as being equivalent to political indifference, the data collected by the TEDS poll instead suggests that many Taiwanese are hesitant to reveal their true preferences. For now, some Taiwanese may see the status quo as the most realistic option.

Moving forward, whether Taiwan pursues closer political and economic ties with the PRC or with the United States, these survey results suggest that the majority of KMT respondents will prioritize relations with China, consistent with their broader preferences for unification and desire to warm cross-strait relations to levels last seen under the Ma Ying-jeou administration. DPP supporters, concerned that closer relations with China may lead to unification by other means, will conversely continue to prioritize economic and political ties with the United States.

Ultimately, Taiwan can neither afford to ignore the competing interests of the PRC and the United States, nor the reality that improving relations with one will likely come at the expense of the other. Taiwan also cannot ignore the possibility that both sides may prioritize relations with each other at Taiwan’s expense. The U.S.-Taiwan relationship is currently experiencing a historic high, with the recent passing of the TAIPEI Act in the U.S. Senate and two high-level visits by senior U.S. officials. However, recent history has also shown the dangers that Taiwan faces—caught as it is in an ambiguous position of sovereignty, with its security in large part dependent on the greater U.S.-China relationship.

Timothy S. Rich is an associate professor of political science at Western Kentucky University and director of the International Public Opinion Lab (IPOL). His research focuses on public opinion and electoral politics, with a focus on East Asian democracies.

Andi Dahmer is a 2018 Harry S. Truman Scholar and a recent graduate of Western Kentucky University.

https://jamestown.org/program/taiwan-opinion-polling-on-unification-with...

Pondering

It is disingenuous to ignore the will of the people of Taiwan. Do we support self-determination or not? 

Or is it that the US is now our enemy and the friend of our enemies (Taiwan) is our enemy because we are on the side of China?

melovesproles

kropotkin1951 wrote:
Pondering wrote:

Taiwan does not consider itself a province of China and it runs itself independently. The people of Taiwan do not want reunification. If ever they did Hong Kong taught them better. 

Taiwan would rather deal with the US than China. That is their choice to make. The US is there out of self-interest but they are not imposing on Taiwan. 

Do we just take the side of whomever is against the US?


First of all you state that "the people of Taiwan do not want reunification." That is not true. The majority of people in Taiwan want peace and security and the parties that run in their elections are split and no more monolithic than in Canada.

The modern Taiwan is a settler nation that was born in 1950. Prior to that it had been a Japanese colony with a small population. The Losers in the civil war invaded the Island and displaced the inhabitants and became the new government. That happens when you and your army move into a small Island. The government was a fascist dictatorship for many decades before the people got any kind of elections. That fascist dictatorship caused the dilemma that we are in today. They with the backing of the US, until the 1970's" proclaimed that they were the real government of all of China and that the CPC did not run a legitimate government. History has hoisted them on that petard. Some of the parties in Taiwan's "democracy" still believe that China is one country and that the CPC will be ousted and they will become the government.

Yeah but that's a lot of history to pay attention to when it's so much easier to spout off some ahistorical platitudes about how important it is to condemn countries on the other side of the world for being one-fifth as belligerent as our empire.

melovesproles

It's so gross how quickly Canadians jump at the opportunity to back the old Anglo-American empire. Absolutely no clue about history-just a bunch of neoimperialists giddy at the chance of sending warships back to police Queen Victoria's old stomping ground. 

epaulo13

..much of this discussion seems to revolve around the super power positions. and that one is better than this one kind of thing. no one is arguing that the us and it's tag alongs are not the worst. so it really isn't helpful to continually pound on that point. it does not enlighten anyone.

..like in canada, like in the us and like every country in the world there are dynamics going on. i would think that exploring those dynamics would lead to more understanding on what the people of taiwan really want.

..this continual view of the world in terms of global super powers get us no where. imo it leaves us powerless and unable to envision a path to a different world. 

melovesproles

We can potificate about what we want to happen in China and Taiwan all day long but the reality is we have no say. On the other hand we do have the power to tell our government to not send warships to the South China Sea. Why pretend otherwise?

It is also a fact that our empire is based on ignorance. How many Canadians do you think know that the monarchy that is on our money first sent warships to China's coast in order to force their government to stop resisting their economy being flooded with British Opium(bombing villages from gunboats and seizing Hong Kong along the way)? I'd bet less than 15%. How many people in China do you think know that history? I'd bet at least 95%. So this conflict is being fueled by the different realities of the people in an empire that remembers too well and of those of us who live in an empire that barely remembers at all.

epaulo13

..we are talking to the folks on this board. no one else.

..from what we see going on in taiwan we can take lessons from. we can be in solidarity with. can understand what they face.

..looking at it from empire positions and then asking folks to choose sides is a dead end. not productive. it's a false debate.

melovesproles

epaulo13 wrote:

..we are talking to the folks on this board. no one else.

..from what we see going on in taiwan we can take lessons from. we can be in solidarity with. can understand what they face.

..looking at it from empire positions and then asking folks to choose sides is a dead end. not productive. it's a false debate.

When I joined this board, it had an anti-war character and that was the focus of a lot of the activists here. That wasn't considered a "false debate" and it wasn't considered taking Saddam's side for thinking that opposing Canada's involvement in the war was more important than theoretical (true?) debates about how Iraqi democracy might come about if he was magically disappeared without superpower involvement.

epaulo13

..i agree re: when i 1st joined as well.

..my experience in the hong kong thread which is recent says different. i presented diverse movements inside and my main opponents argued china is better than the us.

..this thread is in line with the hong kong thread.

epaulo13

..again i say a closer look inside taiwan is needed to ascertain what the people feel. just like we looked inside iraq

melovesproles

Well, that is not what I am arguing although I think in many ways China is better than the US (and in some ways not).

I am making two points and which superpower is better does not actually affect either of them in my opinion.

a) China (importantly, the people who live there) has a completely different memory of Hong Kong and Taiwan than we do. And my point is not that it's better, it's that it's far more accurate and based in history. If you think that this is better, you might have a point. Conflicts often escalate because of different versions of history. Canadians who don't understand what sending warships to China's coast means in historical terms to the people who live there are escalating the conflict.

b) I think an anti-war movement in Canada that focused on changing our country is far more productive and useful than talking about what we wish was different in China and Taiwan. As to your previous post, I do not have a difficult time envisioning what a different world where Canada was not always holding the bully's coat would look like. It would mean leaving NATO, transitioning away from industries that produce arms, implementing full transparency of CSIS and the RCMP and our military, and using Canada's limited diplomatic clout to push for reform in the UN and disarmament. I get that this would not be easy. But it is far more doable and within our purview as citizens than changing China's historical position on whether Hong Kong and Taiwan are in its geopolitical sphere of influence.

epaulo13

..i believe now we are talking about 2 different things. i don't disagree on what you just said. i'm talking about something different.

..i'll be going to bed in a while and i i have to stop. otherwise my mind will be spinning about this and i'll have a terrible sleep. i may have already push it to far. :) 

..good night!

 

 

epaulo13

..too late my mind is churning :)

..what i am arguing is that in all countries there are liberation movements looking to be free of their governmental/corporate ruling class. that we on this board would under normal circumstances find ourselves in solidarity with. whose struggles we can learn from. whose struggles we could understand if we were to look at it. what their position would be.

..instead this debate is around the super power positions. which includes historical positions which are arguments that don't have any bearing on those internal liberation struggles. or maybe they do. we don't know.

..imo this is not a full discussion without those positions being explored. imo no understand can occur without. imo the scope of analysis is to narrow. 

..i believe this is not a natural discussion thread flow but a conscious reoccurring event. why else over and over again the constant barrage that the us is worse than china when no one is even arguing that. when no one is even talking about that. it feels more like an accusation..an attack.

contrarianna

Biden and his hawkish handlers have greatly increased the chance of world terminating war with nuclear China just now by dropping the decades old US "strategic ambiguity" policy:

Biden Says United States Would Come to Taiwan’s Defense
US 'not going to change any of our views'

by Jason Ditz Posted on October 21, 2021Categories

"The US has long tried to avoid directly needling China over Taiwan, by taking a position of ambiguity as to whether the US would immediately go to war to prevent a Chinese takeover of the island. President Biden has done away with that ambiguity now, however, saying he absolutely would go to war over Taiwan.
....
Biden has been pushed to take this stance by anti-China hawks. At this point it’s not particularly necessary, as Taiwan is currently such an important trade partner for the whole region that such a war would be damaging to all sides.

China and Taiwan are going through some tensions lately, with China accusing Taiwan of behaving provocatively in acting as though they are autonomous.

The US position on Taiwan is bizarre, and has been for decades. After initially recognizing Taiwan as rightful government of all of China, they reversed and recognized the PRC.

Officially, then, the US doesn’t recognize Taiwan at all anymore, and has no embassy or diplomatic relations, apart from some work-alike “unofficial” facilities run by the State Department.

On top of maintaining an “unofficial” relationship, US law also commits the US to massive arms sales to Taiwan, which have been very large in recent years. Those arms sales similarly fuel tensions with China...."
https://news.antiwar.com/2021/10/21/biden-says-united-states-would-come-...

This of course has hardened China's position as the US claims it will "defend" what China has always considered part of China, (and indeed, Taiwan until very recently has also officially proclaimed the "One China" stance with its own government in Taiwan as the rightful government of all China).

China: No Room for Compromise or Concessions on Taiwan
US and China are unwilling to reach understanding on island

by Jason Ditz Posted on October 22

"President Biden set out his preparedness to go to war to defend Taiwan from China, while ruling out any concessions to China that might open up a route to avoid such a war.

Chinese officials are following suit, similarly announcing that there is “no room” for any compromise or concession on Taiwan in their policy. Once again, China isn’t laying out a path to avoid a military confrontation.

This is a dangerous position. China’s position is that Taiwan is part of China, and they will get it back. They see the US as driving efforts to keep them from recovering the island. The US, by contrast, doesn’t recognize Taiwan at all, but has a policy of arming the island to resist China, and President Biden now reiterates his willingness to go to war to keep it in this position of nominal independence...."

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/10/22/china-no-room-for-compromise-or-conc...

All acts of wanton US aggression since WWII have framed as a response to a threat. The US and its slavish MSM have been ratcheting up the anti-China fearmongering throughout the Trump/Biden years. The pro-US, but anti-interventionist think tank, The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft provides much background. Days ago Daniel Larison was fearful of what has now transpired in Biden's extreme brinkmanship of dropping the "strategic ambiguity" policy:

Taiwan
Let’s talk about those Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone
Nothing could turn an imaginary crisis into a real one faster than a fearmongering media and an explicit US pledge to defend Taiwan
.

October 8, 2021
Written by
Daniel Larison

Dozens of Chinese military flights through parts of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the past month have caused an unwarranted panic that hawks in the U.S. have stoked and exploited for their own purposes.

Media hysteria and misinformation about these events have served to ratchet up tensions unnecessarily and to create an impression with the public that China is behaving far more aggressively than it is. The eagerness with which some national security analysts and reporters have mischaracterized what these flights represent has been alarming, because it shows how quickly any Chinese actions can be used to create a crisis atmosphere when there is no reason for it.

Contrary to many sensationalist reports and social media posts, Chinese forces have not violated Taiwanese airspace, nor have they flown “over” Taiwan. In fact, these Chinese flights have mostly taken place in one corner in the southwest of Taiwan’s ADIZ hundreds of miles from the island, and they have all been operating in international airspace. Whether through sloppiness or a desire for clicks, media outlets and analysts that should know better have effectively misled their audiences into thinking that China has been routinely committing acts of aggression against Taiwan when it has not done that. Kevin Baron, the executive editor of Defense One magazine, claimed that the flights had gone “over” Taiwan, compared the flights to Russian military intervention in Ukraine, and then suggested that the Chinese government was “testing” the United States and preparing to do something similar here.

An ADIZ is defined as an area well beyond a country’s airspace, and that airspace extends only 12 miles out from the coasts. Several countries, including the United States and China. have established ADIZs to provide them with advance warning of approaching aircraft, and other governments send their own planes into these zones without notifying the other side on a semi-regular basis. The U.S. has repeatedly sent bombers through the ADIZ that China established over the East China Sea in 2013, and Russia sometimes sends its planes into the American ADIZ around Alaska. Part of Taiwan’s ADIZ even overlaps with a portion of the Chinese mainland itself....

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/10/08/lets-talk-about-those-chine...

Meanwhile "foreign influence" by way of cash payoffs to influential think tanks from regimes that support violent US hegemony is ignored with a yawn by the MSM:

Taiwan funding of think tanks: Omnipresent and rarely disclosed
June 17, 2020
Written by
Eli Clifton
....
But five of the capital’s most prominent think tanks have been producing policy papers urging closer U.S. ties with Taiwan — a territory locked in an uncertain legal status that threatens to be a flashpoint between Beijing and Washington. These seemingly impartial research institutions are pushing for expanded arms sales and trade agreements with Taiwan without widely disclosing their high-level funding from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO), Taiwan’s equivalent to an embassy.

The five think tanks — the Brookings Institution, the Center for American Progress*, the Center for a New American Security, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Hudson Institute — all disclose their funding from TECRO but bury it deep on their websites or annual reports.

None of their researchers disclose the potential conflict of interest between Taiwanese funding and advocating for more security guarantees for and trade with Taiwan....

https://quincyinst.org/2020/06/17/taiwan-funding-of-think-tanks-omnipres...

Ken Burch

For whatever it's worth, here's my take:

If two things can be true at the same time, these two things are true of the China/Taiwan situation

1) The U.S. and "The West" have no right to militarily intervene here.

2) Just as it was the case that China had no justification for or need to impose PRC-level repression in Hong Kong, it has no justification for or need to do anything like that on Taiwan.  Therefore, people on the Left should neither ally themselves with the Western powers or the Chinese government on this issue or any other involving the interactions between those two countries.

These two things are also true

1) Before the 20th Century, Taiwan was never an independent country- Chiang Kai-Shek's right-wing Nationalist regime was implacably opposed to Taiwanese independence prior to 1949, and then he led an ethnic-Han/Mandarin minority off the mainland onto Taiwan and into dictatorial power on Taiwan, continuing the long-term oppression of the native Taiwanese population- a population which has consistently rejected the idea that anyone else, including any other government on the mainland, has the right to hold power over them. Just as is the case with the Irish, the Palestinians, and all other oppressed peoples, the native Taiwanese population has the right to self-determination.

2) The people of Taiwan want peace w/the PRC, but they also don't want to be forced to live under the exact same level of absurdly paranoid repression the PRC imposes on the mainland, so there is no reason for the PRC not to just leave them alone.  Also, the current government of Taiwan, which is made up of the opponents of Chiang Kai-Shek's old right-wing Kuomintang party, have created a largely democratic, non-confrontational and internationally neutral state that has essentially nothing in common with Chiang's old police state regime- weirder still, Chiang's old party now favors reunion- and therefore absolute PRC-style police state repression- on Taiwan.   

Is not the reasonable, progressive, internationalist position simply to call for everybody in all the great powers to simpy leave Taiwan be?

It can only be reactionary and unjust for the place to go under direct rule from Beijing's right-wing nationalist state, and it can only be reactionary for "The West" to impose its will on the situation.

Is there anyone who finds the position I've taken on this to be unreasonable or unacceptable?

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:
epaulo13 wrote:
<p>..we are talking to the folks on this board. no one else.</p>

<p>..from what we see going on in taiwan we can take lessons from. we can be in solidarity with. can understand what they face.</p>

<p>..looking at it from empire positions and then asking folks to choose sides is a dead end. not productive. it's a false debate.</p>

When I joined this board, it had an anti-war character and that was the focus of a lot of the activists here. That wasn't considered a "false debate" and it wasn't considered taking Saddam's side for thinking that opposing Canada's involvement in the war was more important than theoretical (true?) debates about how Iraqi democracy might come about if he was magically disappeared without superpower involvement.

In this case it is China threatening to invade Taiwan and force reunification on them.  Yes, people in Taiwan want peace above all but that includes not being invaded by China. Unlike Iraq, Taiwan welcomes US presence as a deterrent to war. We are anti-war right?

That in no way makes the US the good guys as opposed to China bad guy. They are both bad guys. 

The conclusion to the in-depth study I quoted included the following caution.

Ultimately, Taiwan can neither afford to ignore the competing interests of the PRC and the United States, nor the reality that improving relations with one will likely come at the expense of the other. Taiwan also cannot ignore the possibility that both sides may prioritize relations with each other at Taiwan’s expense. The U.S.-Taiwan relationship is currently experiencing a historic high, with the recent passing of the TAIPEI Act in the U.S. Senate and two high-level visits by senior U.S. officials. However, recent history has also shown the dangers that Taiwan faces—caught as it is in an ambiguous position of sovereignty, with its security in large part dependent on the greater U.S.-China relationship.

I don't and won't defend the US but neither will I worship China. There is no "good guy" in the equation. 

I know almost nothing about Taiwan but I am willing to bet their politicians and ruling class abuse their own populations as Canada does so they aren't the good guys either. They look to their own power. 

From the poll the people of Taiwan support the status quo ambiguous though it may be which is very understandable. They don't want to provoke China by declaring independence but neither do they want China to have any greater involvement. The current arrangement is an uncomfortable stalemate.

I think it is safe to assume they don't want to be a proxy battleground between China and the US.

NDPP

Biden says US will go to war with China to defend Taiwan

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/10/23/taiw-o23.html

"US President Biden bluntly declared at a Town Hall meeting on Thursday that the US was committed to going to war against China in defence of Taiwan. The statement is another provocative step that undermines the basis of US-China diplomatic relations and intensifies the already acute tensions between the two countries.

Biden did not, however, simply misspeak. As the most senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 12 years, Biden is fully aware of the diplomatic dangers of unequivocal military backing for Taiwan.

Two interconnected factors lie behind the US war drive: the historic decline of American imperialism and the fear in US ruling circles that China could challenge its global hegemony; and the rapidly deepening economic, social and political crisis that is engulfing the US and propelling the working class into struggle.

Biden is continuing the vicious anti-China propaganda of Trump and with the same political aims: to project the immense social tensions outwards against a 'foreign enemy'. The logical outcome is war..."

A reader's comment by Vish:

"America is playing a very dangerous and Machiavellian game against China just as surely as it does with Russia. Indeed, there is great similarity in the geopolitical strategems that America is deploying in both situations.

The essence of the game is this: The Americans are attempting to use Taiwan (or the Ukraine) as 'geopolitical bait' to induce the Chinese (or Russians) to stage a military intervention. The USA hopes that these military interventions will result in a military defeat or quagmire that will internally weaken the two primary obstacles to American world dominance, which is the driving ambition of US Grand Strategy.

This is the Taiwan Trap that America hopes to spring on China with its thinly concealed attempt to renounce the One China principle and support Taiwan's formal secession. In other words, Taiwan is the Ukraine of Asia.

As Zbig. Brzezinski states in his masterwork, The Grand Chessboard, the US must prevent the rise of any nation in the axial supercontinent of Eurasia (like Russia or China) in order to maintain American global supremacy. This is the dangerous game of geopolitical Nuclear Roulette that the Americans are playing."

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:
For whatever it's worth, here's my take:

If two things can be true at the same time, these two things are true of the China/Taiwan situation

1) The U.S. and "The West" have no right to militarily intervene here.

2) Just as it was the case that China had no justification for or need to impose PRC-level repression in Hong Kong, it has no justification for or need to do anything like that on Taiwan.  Therefore, people on the Left should neither ally themselves with the Western powers or the Chinese government on this issue or any other involving the interactions between those two countries.

These two things are also true

1) Before the 20th Century, Taiwan was never an independent country- Chiang Kai-Shek's right-wing Nationalist regime was implacably opposed to Taiwanese independence prior to 1949, and then he led an ethnic-Han/Mandarin minority off the mainland onto Taiwan and into dictatorial power on Taiwan, continuing the long-term oppression of the native Taiwanese population- a population which has consistently rejected the idea that anyone else, including any other government on the mainland, has the right to hold power over them. Just as is the case with the Irish, the Palestinians, and all other oppressed peoples, the native Taiwanese population has the right to self-determination.

2) The people of Taiwan want peace w/the PRC, but they also don't want to be forced to live under the exact same level of absurdly paranoid repression the PRC imposes on the mainland, so there is no reason for the PRC not to just leave them alone.  Also, the current government of Taiwan, which is made up of the opponents of Chiang Kai-Shek's old right-wing Kuomintang party, have created a largely democratic, non-confrontational and internationally neutral state that has essentially nothing in common with Chiang's old police state regime- weirder still, Chiang's old party now favors reunion- and therefore absolute PRC-style police state repression- on Taiwan.   

Is not the reasonable, progressive, internationalist position simply to call for everybody in all the great powers to simpy leave Taiwan be?

It can only be reactionary and unjust for the place to go under direct rule from Beijing's right-wing nationalist state, and it can only be reactionary for "The West" to impose its will on the situation.

Is there anyone who finds the position I've taken on this to be unreasonable or unacceptable?


Sounds right to me.

kropotkin1951

Pondering wrote:

In this case it is China threatening to invade Taiwan and force reunification on them.  Yes, people in Taiwan want peace above all but that includes not being invaded by China. Unlike Iraq, Taiwan welcomes US presence as a deterrent to war. We are anti-war right?


You read too many fiction novels or watch too much MSM bullshit. China is not threatening to invade Taiwan, unless they declare independence. The Taiwanese people themselves understand the subtleties way better than you or I and the second largest party in the legislature agrees with the One China policy. Mind you they are a nasty right wing party that used to rule the former fascist state. But that just highlights that there is not just one Taiwanese political voice. We meddle and stir the pot and inflame divisions all around the globe in the name of freedom and democracy. I am sure that under a US protectorate the people of Taiwan will be totally free just like the people of Guam or Puerto Rico. Both Guam and Puerto Rico have been US territories since 1898 and because of their strategic importance they will never be independent, despite their recurring independence movements being suppressed. Strange how Canada does not send warships to those coastal waters to support the independence movements on those islands. I guess some people have more call on our human rights sympathies than other people .

NorthReport

The big problem here is the lack of clout by the United Nations. Veto power needs to be removed for all and international disputes need to go to a UN body for resolution. Baring that we will continue to have wars and the threat of wars and nobody has clean hands. Let's give peace a chance.

NorthReport

I have often wondered about this situation, and perhaps now the UN will readdress the issue. And why shouldn't Canada have diplomatic relations with Taiwan if it chooses to do so, as Canada should have diplomatic relations with as many countries as possible.

UN called out for excluding Taiwan for 50 years

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4321398

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