[quote=NorthReport]
What is it going to take for Canada to have a First Nations person as Governor-General?
[quote=NDPP]
Yes, let's hire another prominent and highly paid Indigenous collaborationist to appease liberal settler guilt and sign their governments' crooked, neocolonialist laws and policies on behalf of the usurping and genocidal Crown.
Here's something that should be insisted upon by anyone contemplating voting for any politician in any upcoming election:
STOP. SUPPORTING. APARTHEID. ISRAEL.
This continuing shit-stain on the political pretentiousness of the 'woke' Canadian body politic must end. Let me make it real simple for you. If they support Apartheid Israel and you vote for them then you support Apartheid Israel too.
'I took a look at Canada's hansard and found that MPs mentioned 'Israel' 60 times since Sept, ~ 75% in a positive context. China was mentioned 1,235 times (overwhelmingly critical). "
If neither the NDP or Liberals vote on the budget and the Cons and Bloc vote against it that will leave the fate of the government up to the 5 independents.
Majority is 170
Liberals + NDP = 178
Conservatives + Bloc + Green + Independents = 160
After reading this report which everyone should read by-the-way, as it is written by Crawford Killan, one of the best journalists in Canada, I gather we won't be having an election anytime soon.
Experts Rated 98 Nations Handling COVID. Canada Was 61st
Top performers had little in common politically, the think tank found.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/02/03/Experts-Rated-98-Nations-Handling...
About that study...
Now an Australian think tank, the Lowy Institute, has ranked the COVID-19 responses of 98 countries on the basis of six indicators: confirmed cases, confirmed deaths, confirmed cases per million people, confirmed cases as a proportion of tests, and tests per thousand people.
They have Sweden ranked 37th of 98 countries (just slightly behind Norway, Finland, and Denmark).
Confirmed cases per million: Sweden ranks 198th out of 219 countries (22nd worst)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Tests per thousand people: Sweden ranks 44th out of 219
Confirmed Deaths Per Million (not mentioned in the article, but on their website): 196th out of 219 countries
Confirmed Cases as a % of Total Tests: The number for Sweden is over 10%, much higher than even the U.S. and U.K., let alone Canada, France , and Germany (all countries ranked much lower than Sweden)
If neither the NDP or Liberals vote on the budget and the Cons and Bloc vote against it that will leave the fate of the government up to the 5 independents.
Majority is 170
Liberals + NDP = 178
Conservatives + Bloc + Green + Independents = 160
Sorry I should have said NDP or Greens not LIberals.
Liberal numbers continue to slide for COVID mismanagement and other things, like this...
Cost of 1 Coast Guard ship balloons to nearly $1 Billion as questions mount over federal shipbuilding plan
https://twitter.com/leeberthiaume/status/1363858732606750725
"The original cost...was supposed to be 1/10th that amount..."
Liberal numbers continue to slide for COVID mismanagement and other things, like this...
Cost of 1 Coast Guard ship balloons to nearly $1 Billion as questions mount over federal shipbuilding plan
https://twitter.com/leeberthiaume/status/1363858732606750725
"The original cost...was supposed to be 1/10th that amount..."
It would he great if this impacted the Liberal numbers but is there any evidence it is?
Justin Trudeau's Liberals continue to hold a lead over Erin O'Toole's Conservatives, as support for the two parties remains static in national polling. Though the Liberals' five-point lead isn't particularly wide, their advantages in Ontario and Quebec still potentially put them in majority territory. Support for the New Democrats has ticked up in recent weeks, while the Greens and Bloc Québécois have about as much support as they did in the 2019 federal election.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
I wouldn't ordinarily post this here since I posted elsewhere; however because the last couple of posts referred to recent party poll numbers, here they are:
JKR wrote:
LPC: 35%
CPC: 31.3
NDP: 13.9
BQ: 6.9
GPC: 6.8
PPC: 4
In the time between last six polls on Wikipedia (between January 30th and February 14th) and the above Ekos December 2nd poll, the average of the six most recent polls shows the Cons have dropped 2.0%, while the NDP is the only party that has significant growth (up 5.8%).
LPC: 35.0% (same %)= (36 +33 +32 +38 +37 +34)/6
CPC: 29.3% (down 2.0%) = (29 +30 +31 +28 +28 +30)/6
NDP: 19.7% (up 5.8%) =(20 +20 +18 +15 +22 +19)/6
BQ: 7.0% (up 0.1%) = (6 +8 +8 +7 +7 +6)/6
GPC: 7.0% (up 0.2%) = (7 + 8 +7 +8 +5 +8)/6
PPC: 2% (down 2% but only mentioned in one poll)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_fede...
Once the vaccines are administered to the vast majority of Canadians Trudeau's numbers will rise again and we will be off to the races with the federal election
Trudeau and big pharma: Not a love story
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/trudeau-and-big-pharma-not-a-lov...
Event / Previous Election / Most Recent Poll / Change is in the Air!
Party / Oct 21 '19 / Feb 19 21 / Difference
NDP / 16% / 20% / Up 4%
Libs / 33.1% / 34% / Up 0.9%
Cons / 34.3% / 31% / Down 3.3%
Bloc / 7.6% / 7% / Down 0.6%
Take profit out of long-term care, publicly produce vaccines in Canada: NDP
https://rabble.ca/news/2021/02/take-profit-out-long-term-care-publicly-p...
What Will Canada Do to Fix Its Senior Care Fail?
The NDP’s plan
All of the sad stories emerging from long-term care homes are “appalling” for federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
Earlier this month, the New Democrats unveiled a plan “to fix Canada’s broken long-term care system” that would aim to shift “all for-profit care to not-for-profit hands by 2030.”
“Not a cent of public money should go toward a company trying to make a profit,” Singh told The Tyee.
The NDP’s strategy takes aim at three major for-profit operators — Extendicare, Sienna Senior Living and Chartwell Retirement Residences — which, according to a Toronto Star analysis, collectively paid out nearly $171 million to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2020 while receiving $138.5 million in provincial and federal wage subsidies tied to the pandemic.
At the time the story ran in late December, more than 480 residents and staff members had died of COVID-19 at facilities owned by Extendicare and Sienna in Ontario alone. The death toll at Chartwell was 281 residents across the country.
Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh communing with an elderly woman before the arrival of the pandemic. His party unveiled a plan ‘to fix Canada’s broken long-term care system’ that includes shifting ‘all for-profit care to not-for-profit hands by 2030.’ Photo: supplied.
Singh said that ending for-profit-run homes would not be unlike the discontinuation of for-profit hospitals following the introduction of universal medicare in 1966. His first target would be to make public long-term care facilities owned by Revera Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of a Canadian Crown corporation. “That can happen overnight,” said Singh, noting Trudeau managed to nationalize the Trans Mountain pipeline “with the snap of a finger.” (The change-in-ownership process took three months.)
Singh explained that a national task force would create a plan to phase out other for-profit care homes across the country and establish national regulations based on the five pillars of the Canada Health Act: public administration, comprehensiveness, universality, portability and accessibility.
The task force would also work with the provinces and territories to set national standards for staffing, pay and working conditions. This “would inherently push out for-profit, because you can’t make a profit if you’re actually caring for people the way they should be cared for,” said Singh. “Cutting corners with staffing has been shown to be the leading cause in the horrible conditions.”
https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/02/22/Canada-Senior-Care-Failures/
Dr. Tam’s Bold Diagnosis of What Ails Canada
Canada’s top doctor’s COVID-19 report zeroes in on inequality and policy cures. Will we act?
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/11/10/Theresa-Tam-Diagnosis-What-Ails-C...
Leger:
35% LIB (-1 since Feb. 14)
28% CON (-1)
23% NDP (+3)
7% BQ (+1)
6% GRN (-1)
2% OTH (-1)
https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1366765802540716041?s=20
The NDP are closing in on the Conservatives, and are now within 5% of second place in the most recent polling. Not too shabby! At this rate, it looks like the NDP may become Canada's Official Opposition once again.
So Freeland is about to give us an election budget. Who knew!
Liberal government to unveil first budget in 2 years on April 19
https://twitter.com/DrJacobsRad/status/1374442199526428673
"2 years without a budget in the midst of the largest government spending spree since WWII. Absolutely shameful."
EVENT DATE CONS LIBS NDP
Abacus Poll Mar 17 21 29% 33% 19%
Last Election 34% 33% 16%
Inside Grit Caucus: Trudeau 'Emphatic' No Spring Election Unless Opposition Parties Trigger One, Say Liberal MPs
https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/03/29/inside/290753
"A spring election is off the table because of COVID variants, the vaccine rollout is still in its initial phase, and the possibility of a third wave hitting Canada in the coming weeks, Liberal MPs told The Hill Times..."
I've heard some rumours that Avi Lewis might be eyeing a run for the NDP in Toronto, such as Toronto Danforth.
What a sham!
Canada's Farming and Grocery Industries have just delivered a big fuck-you to Canadian consumers
https://www.straight.com/news/peter-fricker-farming-and-grocery-industri...
That has nothing to do with the federal election but this does:
https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/04/01/trudeau/291523
The survey shared exclusively with The Hill Times suggested that 38 per cent of Canadians would back the Liberals, if an election were held now, enough to put them over the seats needed to recoup its majority status in Parliament, compared to 30 per cent who would tick off Conservative on the ballot.
That has nothing to do with the federal election but this does:
https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/04/01/trudeau/291523
The survey shared exclusively with The Hill Times suggested that 38 per cent of Canadians would back the Liberals, if an election were held now, enough to put them over the seats needed to recoup its majority status in Parliament, compared to 30 per cent who would tick off Conservative on the ballot.
A good read but ironically published on April Fool's Day. The Liberal's are weighing the risk reward scenario's. Their war room knows that any set back in vaccinations during an election campaign could leave them with the minority that they already have or possibly even one where they have a stronger opposition with increased NDP and Green support and the resultant leverage over public policy. The Canadian ruling elite runs the Liberal party and currently it is ruling with only minor fetters on it and big bucks going out the door to industries with the right lobbyists. I think they would need to see a majority as close to a sure thing before rolling the dice.
The Canadian ruling elite runs the Liberal party and currently it is ruling with only minor fetters on it and big bucks going out the door to industries with the right lobbyists. I think they would need to see a majority as close to a sure thing before rolling the dice.
Yeah, I agree. I also think specifically Trudeau and his inner circle are aware that if he is unable to get a better result this election, the elites who back the Liberal party will see him as a liability and shift their support to another leader that they think has a better chance of winning a majority government and remove all obstacles from ramming their agenda through Parliament without having to worry about opposition parties being able to trigger an election. An election that delivers the same result would be a sign that Trudeau's majority was an abberation and more about voting Harper out than any widespread enthusiasm for his leadership.
In what way has opposition prevented anything the Liberals wanted to do
There will be no election until fall and if then it will not be because the Liberals called it. The Liberals will wait until they are defeated in a confidence motion. Trudeau will keep power until he loses an election.
In what way has opposition prevented anything the Liberals wanted to do
The Liberal's original take on CERB and Covid relief was significantly worse than what was passed with NDP support, and the right wing of the Liberal party which has been whining about all the spending would have had much more influence if there had been a majority.
The Liberal's attempt to get emergency powers was shot down by the other parties at the outbreak of the pandemic.
The Liberal's attempt not to have Trudeau and Morneau's favourite "charity" operators/family friends, the Kielburger's appear before the House was prevented by the opposition parties.
No one wants an election during a pandemic but in normal times having the ability to control the timing of an election can be an extremely useful card to hold when a party as scandal-prone as the Liberals is in government.
The Liberal's have not been able to do any moves that are massively unpopular like buying pipelines for billions of dollars which they did with a majority. Who knows what other terrible things they might have pulled? You certainly don't.
A Liberal minority has been objectively less worse than a Liberal majority. You would have to be a Liberal cheerleader or one of their rich backers not to see that.
If Trudeau fails again at delivering a majority, the knives will come out. He knows it.
Trudeau will keep power until he loses an election.
My poly sci prof from the 1980's would have been in complete agreement. But then again he was sympathetic to the Liberals.
If the next election ends in another minority I think Trudeau will still lead the Liberals as no party wants to go into an election with an interim leader. I think Trudeau is in good shape because he can run against Doug Ford.
If the next election ends in another minority I think Trudeau will still lead the Liberals as no party wants to go into an election with an interim leader.
If the gridlock persists and we get a similar result, there will be no rush to have another election. The only way that happens is if the Liberals behave like Pondering is suggesting they will and act like they have a strong mandate by winning 33% of the vote.
No one wants an election right now and the governing party always polls better in those situations. The fact the Liberals are not polling much better than they were before the last election suggests they will have a hard time gaining seats.
The pandemic has meant the politically ambitious have been somewhat in stasis but I highly doubt that means those biding their time will not be ready to pounce as soon as the opportunity presents itself. We'll see how that works if the pandemic situation has settled down and Trudeau can't even get a 1/3 of the country to vote for the Liberal party for the second time in 2 years.
A Liberal minority has been objectively less worse than a Liberal majority. You would have to be a Liberal cheerleader or one of their rich backers not to see that.
You had me convinced, then I read the above and realized what kind of person you are.
A Liberal minority has been objectively less worse than a Liberal majority. You would have to be a Liberal cheerleader or one of their rich backers not to see that.
You had me convinced, then I read the above and realized what kind of person you are.
Well, if it's worth anything, I do apologize. I get snarky and belligerent and it is a bad habit from years of posting online. I am (unsuccessfully) trying to do it less.
Anyway, I don't have the lofty ambition of convincing anyone to change their beliefs or biases through online argument. That said I do think it is worth calling out people for positing their beliefs or biases as objective truths.
I'm not the only one to have pointed out you have a pretty consistant bias of Liberal exceptionalism throughout your posts: where they are the only party playing chess while everyone is playing checkers, they are non-ideological while all the other parties are rigidly so, they are invicible and all the other parties are falling apart. This is a party that could not win a third of the votes in the last election after only one term in government. Your perspective is not based on an objective reality. Like all of us, it is coloured by bias.
It was wrong of me to insinuate that you might be a cheerleader. You could easily come by this bias simply by what you hear around you. It fits with a lot of our country's national narrative and it certainly is propagated in the media. That's probably why it irritates me and I'm unfairly venting my frustrations on you. You're entitled to your opinion and I've said what I disagree with. I'll try not to let it wind me up anymore.
Saying a party has no principles isn't a compliment and that wasn't an apology it was an attempt at justification. The kind of person you are is one that likes to start flame wars and this isn't the first time. I let your other attempts pass.
To be more precise none of the parties have principles/ideologies. It's the members of parties that have principles the Conservatives and NDP must adhere to for fear of losing their support.
You want to argue the NDP is going to win the next federal election knock yourself out. You want to defend the strength of the Conservative party. Go for it.
For a long time the underlying hope of some NDPers has been that the Liberal party would die leaving the Conserv atives and NDP polarized at which point Canadians would come to their senses and vote NDP. The Liberal party will not die because it is considered by Canadians to be centrist even though pundits insist on classifying the Liberals on the left, although to be fair people here like to do that too when claiming the majority of Canadians are on the left.
Although the NDP is the best of a bad lot that isn't saying much. Lascaris is the only Canadian politician I know of that could turn things around. You may want to do some research on him when you aren't busy with the flame war thing.
Well, if it's worth anything, I do apologize. I get snarky and belligerent and it is a bad habit from years of posting online. I am (unsuccessfully) trying to do it less
It would only be worth something if it were sincere. You choose to self-indulge while at the same time pretending it's not your fault that lesser mortals drive you to it.
Next time you want to air your superiority I suggest you pick another target. I'm prickly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kaiLcwHXB4&ab_channel=oldieschick16
Trudeau will keep power until he loses an election.My poly sci prof from the 1980's would have been in complete agreement. But then again he was sympathetic to the Liberals.
If the next election ends in another minority I think Trudeau will still lead the Liberals as no party wants to go into an election with an interim leader. I think Trudeau is in good shape because he can run against Doug Ford.
Agreed. I think they learned their lesson from the Chretian/Martin battle that left them with Rae/Dion/Ignatieff and repeat electoral defeat. My greatest fear at this point is that by the time the NDP wins federally they will be the Liberals and the Liberals will be the Conservatives without the social conservatism.
Former bank governor [and Goldman Sachs bankster royalty] Mark Carney among featured speakers at Liberal Convention
https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2021/04/04/former-bank-governor-mark-c...
"Should an election be triggered during the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, Liberals will get some advice during the convention about how to conduct a virtual campaign from two veterans of last falls US presidential campaign: Caitlin Mitchell, senior digital adviser for the Biden-Harris ticket, and Muthoni Waambu Kraal, former national political and organizing director for the Democratic National Committee. They'll also hear from Ben Rhodes, ex-deputy national security advisor to former US president Barack Obama...."
How pathetically predictable. The NDP convention after the Obama win was similarly chequred with Dem luminaries - 'learning from the best' was how it was described by the Hill & Knowlton/ NDP functionary Brad Lavigne. What a reactionary backwater. And how perfect the greasy 'green' bankster Carney as successor to Trudeau. La Freeland will be greatly discomfited if he decides to run.
I don't think the NDP will trigger an election. The Liberals will push it as far as they can, at least until the fall if not spring of 22 or even later. The longer they stretch it out the better. Swing voters won't trust either O'Toole nor Singh to guide us through recovery.
The next election loss will pit Conservative economic libertarians against social Conservatives.
From the link in the above post.
In interviews with The Hill Times, some pollsters said that the Liberals won those 14 rural ridings in 2015 because of the “Trudeau mania,” a surge of support for Mr. Trudeau personally that had largely diminished by the time of the 2019 election due to the controversies the governing party ran into in its first mandate.This dampened the enthusiasm of the Liberal voter base, the pollsters said, leading some Liberals to stay home on election day, and the governing party to lose those rural seats. In some ridings that the rural Liberal MPs lost, voter turnout went down by double digits between 2015 and 2019.
“They lost them because of what I’ll say [was] disappointment with the prime minister,” said Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist for Nanos Research. “Some of these ridings that the Liberals picked up in 2015, were part of, I’ll call it ‘Trudeau mania.’ When you fast forward to 2019, there was no Trudeau mania, and that’s why a number of them drifted away from the Liberals.”
So pollsters agree, Trudeau has lost the ability to win the Liberals a majority government-even in the middle of a pandemic with spending way up and the Conservative party allegedly collapsing. I’m sure the Liberals are really excited about fighting another election with the best-case scenario of clinging to their minority. I wonder if there are any Liberals out there considering the possibility a new leader might broaden their horizons. It would be totally out of character and not in keeping with their history for leadership factions within the Liberal party to turn on the party leader though.
Another take on the same information:
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-liberals-inch-clos...
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada projection puts the Liberals as 50-to-one favourites to win the most seats and the Conservatives failing to turn the tide post-convention....
How do these levels of support translate into seats? The Liberals have slowly creeped back up above the majority threshold (of 170 seats), but barely: the LPC wins an average of 172 seats, including 40 in Quebec, 80 in Ontario, 27 in Atlantic Canada, and 15 in British Columbia (all averages).
That is without campaigns which will happen before the next election.
Front and centre will be the Conservative convention voting against acknowledging climate change is real and must be addressed. Whatever O'Toole plans as a replacement for the carbon tax will convince no one when they know the party faithfuls still won't admit climate change is real. Talk about dinosaurs.
While it is not hard to imagine Liberal strategists rejoicing at these numbers, the current state of the pandemic in Canada renders the idea of a spring federal election unfathomable. L’actualité political bureau chief Alec Castonguay reported last week the Liberals were now eyeing a September election in the hopes that, by then, a vast majority of Canadians will have received at least one if not two doses of the COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccine rollout has been picking up the pace in March, albeit unevenly across the country, and should continue to do so in April.
Wow, maybe a fall election, just what I was suggesting in post 288. I would be delighted if the NDP picks up all available toss-up seats.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/joe-biden-infrastructure-plan-st...
This week, Joe Biden, a Democratic president, traveled to Pittsburgh to declare that the era of big government is back -- with a vengeance....
Taken together, that almost $4 trillion in either real or proposed government spending put forward by Biden in the space of a month. That is a remarkable thing to ponder -- and evidence that Biden's presidency, if he can manage to shepherd the infrastructure plane to passage, will signal the triumphant return of the government (and government spending) into peoples' lives.
Biden's spending proposals, in fact, are rightly understood as a bookend to the time of shrinking government that Clinton touted more than two decades ago. And Biden's embrace of a robust federal government spending trillions is also evidence of just how far the country has moved the the days of austerity championed by Clinton.
The above is what I have been saying dooms the Conservatives. The desire for big government is back. Cutting taxes and services is out.
https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ts/politics/federal/2021/04/07/senio...Behind a paywall so don't know what she is being criticized for but I bet it has nothing at all to do with her color. I believe it was also suggested that the NDP should stand down in the riding she ran in because she is the first black woman leading a national party.
Pushing the notion that we should all vote for her because she is the first black woman leading a national party isn't going to work. It seems as though the right-wing Green executives think this is the way to slap down the progressives within the Green party and appeal to NDP voters.
Another take on the same information:
The difference in the methodologies of the two takes is very illustrative.
The Hill piece looks at the specific ridings that the Liberals had when they had a majority government and then lost when they were reduced to a minority. This addresses my whole point which is where does a Liberal path to majority come from. I don't see them squeezing out the NDP and I don't see ridings that voted for Scheer switching to the Liberals. Quebec could be a wildcard but outside of that I don't see the path. The polling supports that and shows that the big difference between 2015 and 2019 was Trudeau's relative popularity and that this has not changed since the last election.
The Maclean's "take" averages a bunch of national polls and plugs it into the 338 model. If you look at the 338 breakdowns, the Liberals would have to win 15 of the 20 seats that 338 puts in the toss-up category (a lot of them from the BQ) on top of everything that is Liberal leaning and likely. Those are the kinds of odds desperate gamblers like. The headline of the Maclean's article is a much more bullish take on the Liberal chances than what one would see in an analysis of the riding breakdowns. The path is just not there and Trudeau's personal unpopularity seems to be the most important reason why.
Macleans does more than that. They take each pollster's results individually and they do address regions.
Post CPC-convention, Abacus Data now has the Liberals jumping to an 8-point lead, 38 to 30 per cent, including a 7-point advantage over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, and a massive 16-point lead over the CPC in Ontario. With a virtual three-way-tie in British Columbia, Abacus’s numbers would most likely translate into a decisive LPC majority. Abacus also has Erin O’Toole’s personal numbers in a downward spiral: O’Toole’s net impression (positive impression minus negative impression) sank to a minus-14 nationally, including an 18-point drop in Ontario and 17-point slide in British Columbia since September 2020 (shortly after he won the CPC leadership). Although the Prime Minister may not break any records with his own net impression (Trudeau currently stands at minus-1 according to Abacus), his main opponent’s numbers have been significantly worse. See Abacus’s full report here.
Furthermore they are just one indicator.
Trudeau is an asshole but the Liberal government has a 58% approval rating. (Legault is also an asshole). Being an asshole does not preclude political success.
I take into account current polls and considering the campaigns haven't started yet Trudeau is doing extremely well considering his performance. He does not have to be personally popular to get a majority.
He did not win on personal popularity the first time. He won because he promised to run a deficit to fund infrastructure. Until then the NDP and Conservatives were doing better.
He was reduced to a minority because of the scandals not because of lack of personal popularity.
Trudeau is for sure already working on his campaign and it will be all about a Green New Deal. He will exude confidence that all will be well as long as the Liberal Economic Recovery Plan is followed. In contrast the Conservatives will be doing away with the carbon tax in favor of presenting their own market friendly solution, after voting not to acknowledge climate change as real. That isn't widespread knowledge right now and it will figure heavily in Liberal attack ads.
I think it would be fabulous if the NDP could hold the Liberals to a minority even though I don't think it gives them much leverage. They will have no choice but to support the Liberals just as they have had no choice during this administration.
The Liberals could call an election in the fall or they could wait until the NDP forces an election. I'm 80/20 on them waiting until next spring. I think it depends on conditions. If vaccinations have gone well and the summer has been a relief and the kids are back to regular school I could see an election in October. He will want to run on having successfully governed through the pandemic.
I can be wrong. I was wrong on our involvement in the Ukraine. I was wrong about Ford and Notley not winning. Foreign affairs and provinces not my own I am less familiar with. I don't think I am particularly astute to see what I do federally.
Ignore the headline for a moment and look at the data you posted. The Liberal majority of 175 includes 20 seats that are in the "tossup" category which means a Liberal majority depends on winning 15 (75%) of those while holding on to everything else. You can go onto the 338 website and see what ridings those are. A lot of them are ridings held by the BQ. A Liberal majority depends on defeating the BQ and Conservatives in 15 0f 20 of seats which are currently considered "tossup" seats by the pollsters Maclean's is quoting for its headline. The path isn't impossible but it is extremely unlikely.
I take into account current polls and considering the campaigns haven't started yet Trudeau is doing extremely well considering his performance.
Virtually no one wants an election right now. It's surprising how low the governing party is in the polls right now.
He did not win on personal popularity the first time. He won because he promised to run a deficit to fund infrastructure. Until then the NDP and Conservatives were doing better.
It helped that he was young and affable and seemed like a fresh choice after most Canadians had to put up with the cold caluculating Harper who they disagreed with on virtually every issue. It also helped that he zigged left as Mulclair was zagging right. But he was only able to do that with any credibility because he represented the next generation of Liberals. Paul Martin, Ignatieff or some other Liberal of that generation could not have pulled it off. We knew boomer Liberals were terrible, there was a glimmer of hope that the next generation might be better. Trudeau managed to squander that in a single term.
I am very confident the Liberals will not get a majority government with Trudeau as leader. Any realistic look at the polls says that we will get another minority government unless the Liberals surge in Quebec. I don't see why that would happen but I'll admit, I don't have a good read on Quebec politics, do you think Bloc ridings are going to flip Liberal?
He was reduced to a minority because of the scandals not because of lack of personal popularity.
The scandals resonated because of his (lack of) character. The sanctimonious hypocrisy is strong with that one. It's the same reason he is an extremely poor salesman for a Green New Deal.
I think it would be fabulous if the NDP could hold the Liberals to a minority even though I don't think it gives them much leverage. They will have no choice but to support the Liberals just as they have had no choice during this administration.
The NDP will hold on to their seats. They have had more influence than in any other federal government in my lifetime. Similarily, the rightwing Liberals have never had so little influence. They will be chafing at the bit to get a leader that can get them their majority so they can go back to debating with the Conservatives about what public services to cut
I think if the current polls are the same for the election where the Liberals get 38% of the vote and the Conservatives get 32%, the Liberals win a majority. That is a big if since a lot can change between now and then. Trudeau is lucky that their are no Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec, and BC. The Liberals are looking to make gains in Quebec which is possible.
Trudeau has horseshoes. Most Canadians don't yet know that the Conservative Party has reaffirmed its disbelief in climate change. Swing voters will react to that in disbelief. Scrapping the carbon tax makes no sense.I think if the current polls are the same for the election where the Liberals get 38% of the vote and the Conservatives get 32%, the Liberals win a majority. That is a big if since a lot can change between now and then. Trudeau is lucky that their are no Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec, and BC. The Liberals are looking to make gains in Quebec which is possible.
The "solutions" the Conservatives will propose to climate change and economic fallout from covid will make about as much sense as Mulcair's plan to balance the budget from year one while creating a national daycare program.
Basic income and pharmacare are both on the Liberal convention agenda for discussion. As far as I know the executive is still against both. The Liberals will be looking for a fresh new banner program but my bet is that it will be "pharmacare" for those who don't already have insurance through their employers or will have something to do with longterm care and maybe job retraining programs along with the already planned infrastructure financing.
Most Canadians don't yet know that the Conservative Party has reaffirmed its disbelief in climate change.
According to you, most Canadians still don't know the new Conservative party isn't the Progressive Conservative party so doesn't that mean we have to wait at least 20 years for Canadians to realize what happened at this Conservative convention?
The "solutions" the Conservatives will propose to climate change and economic fallout from covid will make about as much sense as Mulcair's plan to balance the budget from year one while creating a national daycare program.
Basic income and pharmacare are both on the Liberal convention agenda for discussion. As far as I know the executive is still against both. The Liberals will be looking for a fresh new banner program but my bet is that it will be "pharmacare" for those who don't already have insurance through their employers or will have something to do with longterm care and maybe job retraining programs along with the already planned infrastructure financing.
What social programs have Majority Liberal governments ever implemented, regardless of what they say at their conventions or in their policy documents? They had several majority governments to put in the national daycare program they outlined in their Red Book and it never got mentioned until Paul Martin saw his minority government slipping away. Majority Liberal governments gut social programs. They don't create them. We saw how Trudeau governed with a majority-he spent billions of public funds on a leaky pipeline. In a minority government with the NDP holding the balance of power, the Liberals have rediscovered social spending. Coincidence? But sure, they will bring in pharmacare and UBI if they get a majority...
Trudeau is lucky that their are no Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec, and BC.
I think you are really overstating the importance of this. In BC completely different voters support the Federal and Provincial Liberals. The dynamic in Quebec also looks a lot more complicated. In Ontario, the provincial Liberals are polling behind the Conservatives and NDP so how is that an advantage? The brand seems to be seriously damaged especially with younger voters.
I think the Trudeau Liberals are hovering between getting another minority or just barely getting another majority. It's pretty close so I don't see the point in debating whether the Liberals are more likely to win a minority or majority. As things stand the Conservatives have an outside chance of winning a minority but even then the Liberals have a great chance at hanging on to power with help from the NDP.
This is the phenomenon I'm referring to that Harper (as far as I know) kicked off.
https://ipolitics.ca/2021/04/07/process-nerd-battle-of-the-bluffs-could-...
It’s even more fundamental in a minority setting, as the governing party has to secure the support of at least one other party to win each and every vote, with the penalties for failing to do so ranging from having key legislation blocked to losing its claim on power entirely.
By its very nature, a minority House is unpredictable, volatile and ultimately self-destructive by design — and in most cases, it functions exactly as intended, albeit usually for a significantly shorter duration than a standard-issue four-year majority.
What that underlying democratic algorithm doesn’t account for, however, is a situation where, due to unforeseen and uncontrollable outside forces like a pandemic, no one — not the government, and even more so not the opposition parties — actually wants to be responsible for plunging the country into an election.
Instead of evenly-matched countervailing forces, we have opposition parties who are fully prepared to use their collective majority to make it as difficult as possible for the government to function while stopping just short of actually depriving it of the confidence needed to remain in power.
In the good ol days the NDP was able to force the Liberal government to bargain when they had a minority. Harper ended the era of minority governments negotiating. Now they do as Harper did. Threaten to turn everything into a confidence motion so the other parties have to back down if they are not prepared to face an election.
Hence, governing as if they have a majority. Sure they would rather actually have a majority government but they don't need it.
That's how the Conservatives kept the Liberals in line and it is how the Liberals will keep the NDP in line. Vote with the Liberals or face another election the NDP will be blamed for.
