Canadian polls, 2021

472 posts / 0 new

Last post

Tue, 2021-05-18 12:46

Pondering

This poll's headline is deceptive:

Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck again

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-conservatives-neck-and-neck-poll-canadian...

Only they aren't really because within the article, as you get closer to the end, it states.....

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “We see a topline tightening horserace nationally but after examining key regional battlegrounds it’s not clear to me that one can see a trend developing in terms of competitiveness electorally.

The number of voters looking for change is up marginally, but the intensity of that feeling remains mild, and the increase is more evident in places where the incumbents have little support and weak prospects.

In other words, they are not neck and neck. The Liberals are well ahead.

Looking at the history of recent polls at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_fede... the Liberals are ridiculously strong given the state of the country.

Edited to add link to ratings of the pollsters.

https://338canada.com/pollster-ratings.htm

Issues Pages:

Politics in Canada

Tue, 2021-05-18 16:32

NorthReport

Actually the Liberals are in majority territory, but the Jagmeet Singh-led NDP is polling at 21% in latest poll

Libs 38% unchanged

Cons 29%, up 2%

NDP 21%, up 2%

Bloc 6%, down 1% nationally

Gns 5%, down 2%

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/liberals-in-drivers-seat-over-con...

Wed, 2021-05-19 19:26

Pondering

Now this is interesting. Top issues for the Conservatives are radically out of step with all other Canadians. Respondents were asked to pick their top to concerns. I am very heartened by what made it to the top of the list especially if you take Conservatives out of the equation. Climate change, access to health care, and access to affordable housing are the top three concerns of Canadians, with the Conservatives taxes take third place. Again, leaving out the Conservatives, living conditions for indigenous peoples takes 4th place.

Wed, 2021-05-19 20:01

JKR

NDP and Liberal voters seem to have very similar views.

Wed, 2021-05-19 20:36

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I am happy to see how little other parties care about taxes and deficit management compared to the Conservatives. And the ranking on climate change was shocking for how little Conservatives care.

Wed, 2021-05-19 20:58

kropotkin1951

There is good reason that the Liberals and the NDP sound the same on the campaign trail. For me the take away was the disconnect with climate change getting top billing but both NDP and Liberal voters thought that natural resource and energy policy was way down the list of priorities. The Conservatives, while they prioritize the issue for the wrong reasons, are right that this is one of Canada's most critical issues.

Tue, 2021-05-25 16:39

josh

If an election were held today, 37 per cent of decided and leaning voters would choose the Liberals, 31 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, 13 per cent would opt for for the NDP, seven per cent would go for the Greens, and five per cent would cast their ballot for the Bloc, Mainstreet’s telephone survey conducted from May 21 to 23 shows.

Fri, 2021-05-28 01:35

Pondering

This was updated on the 26th

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Though some polls are showing a closer national race between the Liberals and Conservatives, they are masking the Liberals' advantage at the regional level, particularly in Ontario and Quebec where most of Canada's seats are located. For that reason, the Liberals are still narrowly in majority territory as the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois trail behind in a largely static political landscape.

The Conservatives are closing the gap on the Liberals in British Columbia and widening their lead in Alberta and the Prairies. But the Liberals are also increasing their margin over the Conservatives in Ontario and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, which has a bigger impact on the seat count than the shifts in Western Canada.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-conservatives-grea...

However, when breaking down the crosstabs along the respondents’ 2019 federal vote, ARI measured that, among Conservative voters, only 41 per cent agreed climate change is a serious threat, but over 90 per cent of Liberal, NDP, BQ, and Green voters perceived it as such.

Thu, 2021-06-17 23:43

Pondering

This link was in another thread but I think it bears dissecting.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-lead-by-5-ndp-gaining/

47% say the country is headed in the right direction. Trudeau has a 39% positive 39% negative for a net zero but O'Toole has 19% positive and Singh has 32% positive so that still leaves Trudeau with a significant lead. And then there is this:

Asked which of the national party leaders they would like to see become Prime Minister after the next election, Mr. Trudeau is the choice of 30%, Mr. O’Toole (20%) and Mr. Singh (16%).

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 34% of the vote, the Conservatives 29%, the NDP 21%, the Green Party 6% and the BQ 35% in Quebec. The NDP is up 5-points since the beginning of the month thanks to a spike in the Prairies.

It's great to see the NDP has momentum, and that demographics favor them, but the Liberals are still very strong and they haven't even run a campaign yet.

Bruce Anderson Mr. Singh’s opportunity underscores that there is a lot of demand for progressive policy and that he has made a connection with younger voters. The warning signs for Mr. O’Toole are about tepid feelings for him among Conservative voters, and at the same time, he hasn’t been able to attract much interest from swing voters around the centre of the spectrum. These numbers do not offer the Liberals a clear path to a majority – especially given the tightness of the contest with the BQ in Quebec and the wandering gaze of younger voters towards the NDP.”

David Coletto: The NDP has gained quite a bit of ground in the Prairies while the Conservatives remain stuck at around 30% – a place they have been for quite some time in our tracking.

An improving mood has not translated into more support for the incumbents which might foretell how Canadians could react if asked to vote in an election later this year.”

If people feel confident that the Conservatives won't win, that the Liberals will get at least a minority, I think more people will vote NDP.

Fri, 2021-06-18 01:00

(Reply to #9) #10

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

This link was in another thread but I think it bears dissecting.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-lead-by-5-ndp-gaining/

47% say the country is headed in the right direction. Trudeau has a 39% positive 39% negative for a net zero but O'Toole has 19% positive and Singh has 32% positive so that still leaves Trudeau with a significant lead. And then there is this:

Asked which of the national party leaders they would like to see become Prime Minister after the next election, Mr. Trudeau is the choice of 30%, Mr. O’Toole (20%) and Mr. Singh (16%).

It's the net scores that are important which you left out except for Trudeau. So here they are.

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of 0. Trudeau is -2 among women under 30. He is -11 in BC, +5 in Ontario, +20 in Quebec, and +11 in Atlantic Canada.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 19% and finds negative impressions among 36%, for a net score of -17. O’Toole is -21 in BC, -6 in Alberta, -19 in Man/Sask, -20 in Ontario, -16 in Quebec and -18 in Atlantic Canada. He is -18 among men and -17 among women. Among 2019 Conservative voters 56% express a positive view with 26% neutral and 10% negative.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 32% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net +6. Singh is +6 in BC, -3 in Alberta, +7 in Man/Sask, +16 in Ontario, -4 in Quebec and +1 in Atlantic Canada. He is 0 among men and +12 among women, including +32 among women under 30.

Trudeau is net zero while a minus 17 and Singh is the only one with a positive score of +6. In BC Trudeau is -11 while Singh is +6 and in Ontario Trudeau is +5 but Singh is +16. Trudeau beats Singh in Quebec +20 to -4 (in large part because of Singh's turban no doubt) and in the Atlantic Canada +11 to +1. Unfortunately the article does not give number for Trudeau in Alberta and Man/Sask (however this has never been a region to give a Trudeau anything but net negatives except perhaps in Pierre's first election in 1968). Singh has a -3 in Alberta and a +7 Man/Sask so he is likely ahead here also, but this area will still be primarily Conservatives, but with little enthusiasm for O'Toole at -6 in Alberta and -19 in Sask/Man I expect a few seat losses for the Conservatives there, although their huge past margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan will save most of their seats on the prairies.

Fri, 2021-06-18 09:39

#11

Pondering

If the people voting for Conservatives, NDP or Green hate his guts it doesn't impact him one way or another. It doesn't matter if people adore Singh if they aren't going to vote for him anyway. It's good in the sense that if they like him he has a better chance of convincing them to vote for him but beyond that it is meaningless.

Trudeau is strong in Ontario which is where he needs to pick up seats. Kropotkin mentioned he will be running strong against Ford which sounds likely to me. He is neck and neck with the Bloc in Quebec so he may manage to pick up seats there.

I also didn't mention the other breakdowns. The NDP is going strong with voters under 45. Once when I referred to demographics and youth being more leftist it was suggested that they grow out of it. I don't think thats the case this time. We could be approaching a revolutionary time due to climate change. People will feel more and more betrayed by traditional leaders.

Fri, 2021-06-18 14:31

(Reply to #11) #12

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

If the people voting for Conservatives, NDP or Green hate his guts it doesn't impact him one way or another. It doesn't matter if people adore Singh if they aren't going to vote for him anyway. It's good in the sense that if they like him he has a better chance of convincing them to vote for him but beyond that it is meaningless.

It is not meaningless. The Republicans attacked Hilary Clinton relentlessly during the two years before the start if the 2016 election driving her popularity down from the 70s to the 40s and high 30s, making it much more likely that Trump could defeat her.

Sat, 2021-06-19 14:12

#13

Pondering

jerrym wrote:

Pondering wrote:

If the people voting for Conservatives, NDP or Green hate his guts it doesn't impact him one way or another. It doesn't matter if people adore Singh if they aren't going to vote for him anyway. It's good in the sense that if they like him he has a better chance of convincing them to vote for him but beyond that it is meaningless.

It is not meaningless. The Republicans attacked Hilary Clinton relentlessly during the two years before the start if the 2016 election driving her popularity down from the 70s to the 40s and high 30s, making it much more likely that Trump could defeat her.

I was referring to the practice of subtracting the negative from the positive. That doesn't happen in the voting booth. Votes that you don't get do not impact the votes that you do get.

Trudeau has 39% positive, 39% negative, 19% neutral (net zero)

Singh is 32% positive, 26% negative, 42 % neutral. (net positive 6)

Using the net number suggests that Singh is more popular than Trudeau but Trudeau's positive 39% beats Singh by 7% and that number, not the negatives, determine elections.

edited to add Trump is a perfect example. The left probably hated Trump more strongly than any other president in history but he still won the election because more people supported him than hated him. Subtracting the people that hate him from the people that support him makes no sense. It has no impact.

The degree to which people were against Biden made no difference because he had enough support to win.

If we add the 19% neutral to the 39% negative we would have a 58% negative to 39% positive for a net negative 19. It wouldn't change the electoral outcome. It's the positives that determine elections not the strength of feeling of people who don't vote for you.

Sat, 2021-06-19 17:22

(Reply to #13) #14

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

jerrym wrote:

Pondering wrote:

If the people voting for Conservatives, NDP or Green hate his guts it doesn't impact him one way or another. It doesn't matter if people adore Singh if they aren't going to vote for him anyway. It's good in the sense that if they like him he has a better chance of convincing them to vote for him but beyond that it is meaningless.

It is not meaningless. The Republicans attacked Hilary Clinton relentlessly during the two years before the start if the 2016 election driving her popularity down from the 70s to the 40s and high 30s, making it much more likely that Trump could defeat her.

I was referring to the practice of subtracting the negative from the positive. That doesn't happen in the voting booth. Votes that you don't get do not impact the votes that you do get.

Trudeau has 39% positive, 39% negative, 19% neutral (net zero)

Singh is 32% positive, 26% negative, 42 % neutral. (net positive 6)

This still leaves Singh with much much more potential for growth than Trudeau since he leads the neutrals 42% to 19%. While it is possible to convert a negative perception into a positive perception, that is much harder than trying to win over neutrals. That's why all political parties tell canvassers to not bother trying to convert those who are negative over to their party. The effort usually involved in trying to win over a negative is not normally worth the time consumed in the process and the low likelihood of conversion to your side. Trudeau has an advantage in terms of a higher plus rating, but his negatives do matter as it limits his potential vote share. He also has an advantage in handing out goodies as the government before the election, but campaigns still matter. After all, Clinton was ahead by 10% in August 2016 and in Canada all three parties had polls showing them in the lead in 2015. Do I think Singh is going to win - it's unlikely, even if he had a higher + rating than Trudeau because he would also have to overcome the NDP weakness in Quebec and the Maritimes, but like I said campaigns matter.

Wed, 2021-06-23 21:25

#15

Pondering

jerrym wrote:
He also has an advantage in handing out goodies as the government before the election, but campaigns still matter. After all, Clinton was ahead by 10% in August 2016 and in Canada all three parties had polls showing them in the lead in 2015. Do I think Singh is going to win - it's unlikely, even if he had a higher + rating than Trudeau because he would also have to overcome the NDP weakness in Quebec and the Maritimes, but like I said campaigns matter.

I agree that campaigns matter. They bounce around dramatically in the few months right before an election showing how little these polls matter in determining the ultimate outcome due to comments like this during campaigns....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-looming-last-session-parliamen...

O'Toole said only an overwhelming vote for the Conservatives can put an end to a Liberal government propped up by Bloc Québécois, Green and NDP MPs largely sympathetic to its agenda....

"There aren't five choices for Canadians — there are two," he added. "Canada's Conservatives on one side and the Liberal-NDP-Green-Bloc coalition on the other."

I'm stunned. I think Canadians are fine with the above. I think Canadians like the idea of weakening the Liberals while not risking a Conservative government. I think he just shot himself in the foot and that he will be doing it a lot once the campaigning starts in earnest next fall.

I think we have had some pretty good previews of what the Conservatives will be presenting and it's going to be bad.

Thu, 2021-06-24 13:21

(Reply to #15) #16

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

jerrym wrote:
He also has an advantage in handing out goodies as the government before the election, but campaigns still matter. After all, Clinton was ahead by 10% in August 2016 and in Canada all three parties had polls showing them in the lead in 2015. Do I think Singh is going to win - it's unlikely, even if he had a higher + rating than Trudeau because he would also have to overcome the NDP weakness in Quebec and the Maritimes, but like I said campaigns matter.

I agree that campaigns matter. They bounce around dramatically in the few months right before an election showing how little these polls matter in determining the ultimate outcome due to comments like this during campaigns....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/election-looming-last-session-parliamen...

O'Toole said only an overwhelming vote for the Conservatives can put an end to a Liberal government propped up by Bloc Québécois, Green and NDP MPs largely sympathetic to its agenda....

"There aren't five choices for Canadians — there are two," he added. "Canada's Conservatives on one side and the Liberal-NDP-Green-Bloc coalition on the other."

I'm stunned. I think Canadians are fine with the above. I think Canadians like the idea of weakening the Liberals while not risking a Conservative government. I think he just shot himself in the foot and that he will be doing it a lot once the campaigning starts in earnest next fall.

I think we have had some pretty good previews of what the Conservatives will be presenting and it's going to be bad.

With many polls showing the Cons just touching 30% or even below, I think he is going to run a save the furniture campaign that focuses on turning out the base, who won't vote for other parties, but could stay home because they are not warming up to O'Toole's attempt to make an appeal to moderate voters and he is afraid of facing their wrath after the election. Whatever one thinks of Scheer, and I don't think much of him, he outpolled percentage wise Trudeau and stuck to very conservative message on social issues and climate change, but he was gone in a blink of an eye after the election. I think O'Toole knows the base will demand his scalp unless he pulls off a miracle and wins power somehow. His base appeasement strategy won't work unless he wins power. I also expect if he loses, the base will demand a more conservative Con, perhaps a populist Trumpista who runs on raw emotion, with the thinking being even if we lose he'll at least be saying what we want to hear. IMO, part of what O'Toole in trouble with some of his own base was running further to the right to win the Conservative nomination over McKay, then putting out appeals to labour, on climate change, on First Nations issues, making it feel like he had betrayed some of those who voted for him.

Thu, 2021-06-24 07:44

#17

josh

Brand new @abacusdataca poll:

LPC 37

CPC 27

NDP 18

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1408013230509789185?s=20

Thu, 2021-06-24 08:42

#18

Debater

Thanks for the link to the new Abacus poll, Josh.

Liberal fortunes strengthen; Conservatives shed 5 points in a month

June 24, 2021

https://abacusdata.ca/liberal-fortunes-improve-lead-by-10/

Thu, 2021-06-24 13:17

#19

jerrym

New Leger Poll

Liberals 34%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 20%

Bloc 8%

Greens 5%

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uplo...

Sat, 2021-06-26 11:57

#20

josh

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Sat, 2021-06-26 22:47

(Reply to #20) #21

Pondering

josh wrote:

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Very interesting that the CPC vote seems to be going to the Liberals. Disappointing that it puts them in majority territory but not unexpected. While NDP support is soft I think it has lots of room to grow particularly if the Conservative slide is well publicized which it likely will be.

Mon, 2021-06-28 19:18

#22

jerrym

There is another area of concern for the Conservatives. The UCP is in trouble in Alberta, but even more important is that the Wildrose Independence party "is picking up steam" and is already at 20% in a provincial poll by Angus Reid. Even if some of the Wildrose Independence party are willing to vote Con nationally, many are likely turned off by O'Toole's appeals to climate change and union voters. Even though these appeals have been tepid to the hardcore right-winger this is verboten and some are independentites at any cost, having given up on Canada. While a landlocked Alberta could not export oil out of North America without Canadian support, Trump has proven you don't need rational arguments to convert angry people. The Wildrose Independentistes are probably already costing the national Conservatives a couple of points in the national polls. It could be enough to cost them a couple of ridings around Edmonton, where the NDP are relatively strong. Kenney's performance doesn't help either. An ongoing poor Con showing in the polls could also help attract some NDP voters from the Liberals, who are no longer afraid of a Conservative victory, as noted above.

The UCP is now running fully 11 points behind the NDP on the left. On the right, support for the Wildrose Independence Party is picking up steam; one-in-five Albertans currently say they would vote for that party.

https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-june2021/

Sun, 2021-06-27 07:48

(Reply to #22) #23

Debater

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Very interesting that the CPC vote seems to be going to the Liberals. Disappointing that it puts them in majority territory but not unexpected. While NDP support is soft I think it has lots of room to grow particularly if the Conservative slide is well publicized which it likely will be.

I see at least 2 factors which may prevent the Liberals from winning a Majority:

1) If everyone assumes that the Liberals "have it in the bag" it means that fewer NDP voters may vote Liberal and the Liberals may not end up winning the Majority that some people assume they will get.

2) The BQ has solid numbers in Quebec and is a few points higher in the polls than it was in 2019. If that stays like that, it may block any Liberal gains in Quebec.

Mon, 2021-06-28 13:28

(Reply to #23) #24

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Very interesting that the CPC vote seems to be going to the Liberals. Disappointing that it puts them in majority territory but not unexpected. While NDP support is soft I think it has lots of room to grow particularly if the Conservative slide is well publicized which it likely will be.

I see at least 2 factors which may prevent the Liberals from winning a Majority:

1) If everyone assumes that the Liberals "have it in the bag" it means that fewer NDP voters may vote Liberal and the Liberals may not end up winning the Majority that some people assume they will get.

2) The BQ has solid numbers in Quebec and is a few points higher in the polls than it was in 2019. If that stays like that, it may block any Liberal gains in Quebec.

And that would be a good scenario? I swear most people here are closet Conservatives

You'd really rather the BQ and the American Conservatives hold the balance of power?

I'd much prefer the Liberals win a solid majority. I can live with 4 more years of Conservative light over Crazy American inspired Conservatives having any power at all.

Mon, 2021-06-28 14:09

(Reply to #24) #25

Ken Burch

alan smithee wrote:

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Very interesting that the CPC vote seems to be going to the Liberals. Disappointing that it puts them in majority territory but not unexpected. While NDP support is soft I think it has lots of room to grow particularly if the Conservative slide is well publicized which it likely will be.

I see at least 2 factors which may prevent the Liberals from winning a Majority:

1) If everyone assumes that the Liberals "have it in the bag" it means that fewer NDP voters may vote Liberal and the Liberals may not end up winning the Majority that some people assume they will get.

2) The BQ has solid numbers in Quebec and is a few points higher in the polls than it was in 2019. If that stays like that, it may block any Liberal gains in Quebec.

And that would be a good scenario? I swear most people here are closet Conservatives

You'd really rather the BQ and the American Conservatives hold the balance of power?

I'd much prefer the Liberals win a solid majority. I can live with 4 more years of Conservative light over Crazy American inspired Conservatives having any power at all.

Why not a minority Liberal government with a larger NDP caucus holding the balance of power? Wouldn't that be better?

Mon, 2021-06-28 14:13

(Reply to #25) #26

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

Debater wrote:

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Today, INNOVATIVE released a new analysis that shows the Liberals are doing far better within distinct groups of swing ridings then national or regional results would suggest.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/

Very interesting that the CPC vote seems to be going to the Liberals. Disappointing that it puts them in majority territory but not unexpected. While NDP support is soft I think it has lots of room to grow particularly if the Conservative slide is well publicized which it likely will be.

I see at least 2 factors which may prevent the Liberals from winning a Majority:

1) If everyone assumes that the Liberals "have it in the bag" it means that fewer NDP voters may vote Liberal and the Liberals may not end up winning the Majority that some people assume they will get.

2) The BQ has solid numbers in Quebec and is a few points higher in the polls than it was in 2019. If that stays like that, it may block any Liberal gains in Quebec.

And that would be a good scenario? I swear most people here are closet Conservatives

You'd really rather the BQ and the American Conservatives hold the balance of power?

I'd much prefer the Liberals win a solid majority. I can live with 4 more years of Conservative light over Crazy American inspired Conservatives having any power at all.

Why not a minority Liberal government with a larger NDP caucus holding the balance of power? Wouldn't that be better?

Yes but it isn't going to happen. The NDP just doesn't have the numbers.

Mon, 2021-06-28 15:09

#27

Geoff

Should the Liberals win a majority, they will tack right to 'tackle the deficit' caused by Covid. Remember, it was Liberal leader, Paul Martin, who committed to getting rid of the last deficit, "Come hell or highwater". That's how the Liberals roll. With a "solid majority" the progressive masquarade would be over, and the "blue Liberals" would be firmly in the driver's seat. I've seen this movie too many times to be fooled again.

Mon, 2021-06-28 18:18

(Reply to #27) #28

cco

alan smithee wrote:

And that would be a good scenario? I swear most people here are closet Conservatives

You'd really rather the BQ and the American Conservatives hold the balance of power?

I'd much prefer the Liberals win a solid majority. I can live with 4 more years of Conservative light over Crazy American inspired Conservatives having any power at all.

The Conservatives have been the Liberals' most consistent coalition partner. For example, when the Liberals passed the recent forced-labour legislation making it illegal for Port of Montreal workers to strike, that sailed through in a couple of days with Liberal and Conservative votes. If the Liberals get a majority, they won't need Conservative votes to implement conservative policies, but they certainly won't tack to the left. They never do.

Mon, 2021-06-28 19:45

(Reply to #28) #29

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

cco wrote:
alan smithee wrote:

And that would be a good scenario? I swear most people here are closet Conservatives

You'd really rather the BQ and the American Conservatives hold the balance of power?

I'd much prefer the Liberals win a solid majority. I can live with 4 more years of Conservative light over Crazy American inspired Conservatives having any power at all.

The Conservatives have been the Liberals' most consistent coalition partner. For example, when the Liberals passed the recent forced-labour legislation making it illegal for Port of Montreal workers to strike, that sailed through in a couple of days with Liberal and Conservative votes. If the Liberals get a majority, they won't need Conservative votes to implement conservative policies, but they certainly won't tack to the left. They never do.

Perhaps but if we were to compare them both with a pile of shit, Erin O'Toole's Canadian Republicans would be bigger, stinkier and steamier than the Liberals ever dreamed of being.

Mon, 2021-06-28 20:28

#30

Pondering

But it is looking more and more like my theory is playing out. The people that want O'Toole out want to replace him with someone more "conservative" meaning someone more Republican. That is definitely not a direction for growth. They think O'Toole is Liberal lite.

Best case scenario would be an NDP win but that isn't going to happen so the next best thing is minority Liberals with the NDP holding as many seats as possible. I agree that a majority Liberal government will go right with a vengence not left. If the Conservatives and BQ win enough seats to help the Liberals go right it is no more than they would have done with a majority. That is, the Conservatives and the BQ will not be able to force the Liberals farther right as long as the NDP holds enough seats and there is no reason to think that they won't. They are doing very well.

Historic patterns no longer apply. By rights the Conservatives should be sailing to at least a minority government even with the pandemic. The stench around the Liberals is unmistakable. The Bloc has long upset the apple cart in Quebec but the recreation of the Conservative party in the image of the Republicans rode a truck over the apples.

Since Layton and Mulcair the NDP proved itself a contender on the federal stage. Although it was for a short time the NDP was in first place under Mulcair. That shows that lots of Canadians are open to voting NDP and polls confirm it.

The Green party impolsion should also benefit the NDP. Paul is still refusing to condemn the remarks which was a condition of not having a leadership review in late July or August. She is looking into her legal options and accusing the party of racism and sexism. At this point even if she makes the requested statement it is clearly under duress and there is an automatic leadership review after the election. She will lose no matter who she runs against.

The Green party made the wrong choice by 2K votes.

Wed, 2021-06-30 15:15

#31

josh

If an election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would vote for the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau; while this is unchanged from last month, it is also down2 points from April’s polling. A quarter (26%) would vote for Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party, down 3 points from last month, and two in ten (20%) decided voters would cast their ballot for the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, down 1 point from last month. Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc would receive 8% of the vote nationally, (or 34% of the popular vote within in Quebec), an increase of 2 points from last month. Internal strife within Annamie Paul’s Green Party does not seem to have hampered support, as it would receive 7% of the vote, up 4 points from last wave.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberals-Support-Plateaus-Back-Vaccination-Programme

Wed, 2021-06-30 19:05

#32

bekayne

I didn't think it was possible to be worse than Andy Scheer, I continue to be amazed.

Tue, 2021-07-06 08:00

#33

josh

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 25%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ 29% in Quebec (8 points behind the Liberals).

https://abacusdata.ca/2021-liberals-ahead-conservatives-low/

Tue, 2021-07-06 11:33

#34

Pondering

Exciting trend! The NDP now has a larger voting pool than the Conservatives. 59% of Canadians would not even consider voting Conservative.

Tue, 2021-07-06 17:55

#35

kropotkin1951

Since the BQ is one of the keys to ensuring there is no majority I am pleased to see their numbers on the rise.

Tue, 2021-07-06 19:25

#36

jerrym

July 4th Leger poll

Libs 33

Cons 30

NDP 19

Green 5

BQ 7

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_fede...

Wed, 2021-07-07 04:27

#37

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Plrased with thwe BQ numbers. THIS is whatg makwes me lose my shit around here. I seee the Liberal numbers and I am pleased. If an electiuon were held todsay, it will be a Liveral minority with the NDP holding them back to the left.

Anyone pleased with numbers that show the CPC numbers up because of the BQ is mot progressiove. You can't run around waving the lefdtist flag while basically opennly opining for the Conservatives to take poweer. That would be the result of the BQ numbers being pleasing.

Get over it. Paul Martin is ancient history. Move on.

Thu, 2021-07-22 15:36

#38

josh

Leger:

LPC 34

CPC 29

NDP 22

Bloc 7

Greens 4

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Legers-North-American-Tracker-July-21st-2021.pdf

Thu, 2021-07-22 16:08

(Reply to #38) #39

Ken Burch

josh wrote:

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 25%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ 29% in Quebec (8 points behind the Liberals).

https://abacusdata.ca/2021-liberals-ahead-conservatives-low/

If that becomes a sustained polling trend, it's going to make it harder and harder for the Liberals to do the "a vote for the NDP is a vote for a Con government" argument.

Wed, 2021-07-28 20:00

#40

Mighty Middle

Mainstreet just released a poll showing the Conservatives leading with Canadians who identify as "Non-Binary"

The results

Non-Binary
Conservatives - 31.9%
NDP - 26.4%
Liberals - 7.2%
Green - 3.4%
Bloc - 2.6%

Wed, 2021-07-28 22:00

#41

Pondering

How large was their pool of non-binary voters? What other groups did they single out?

Wed, 2021-07-28 22:47

(Reply to #41) #42

Mighty Middle

Pondering wrote:

How large was their pool of non-binary voters? What other groups did they single out?

Not only are the Conservatives ahead of the NDP among "Non-Binary" voters - but they are ahead of the NDP among female voters and voters 18 - 34 - and all other age groups

Thu, 2021-07-29 01:15

#43

melovesproles

Those breakdowns seem off.

But the prognostications on here about the Conservatives being dead in the water are very premature. They have a few potential advantages depending on how the narrative of the next election plays out. Hopefully, that doesn't happen but I don't see the point of pretending it's impossible.

Thu, 2021-07-29 01:44

#44

jerrym

The number of non-binary voters polled was 45 which is statistically insignificant.

With regards to 18-34 vote, the Leger poll of July 4th found NDP 33%, Liberals 29%, Cons 26%, Greens 6% (https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uplo...). The Ekos poll of July 23rd found the Liberals and NDP tied at 30% with the Cons at 26% for the 18-34 age group (https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2021/07/political-landscape-on-ve...). A Leger poll of July 18th found the NDP at 35%, Liberals 29%, and Cons 20% (https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uplo...). So these polls give quite different results to the above Mainstreet poll. It would also help if you name the poll involved so others don't have to go look it up.

Comparing the potential for growth of the Liberals, Cons and NDP the Ipsos poll July 20th found that the NDP has much more room for growth. "Asked which party they would choose as their second option, 20% would vote for the NDP, 14% would choose the Liberals, 12% would vote for the Green Party, and just 10% would vote for the Conservatives." (https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/As-Election-Fever-Builds-Liberal-...)

Thu, 2021-07-29 08:52

#45

Pondering

Conservative support is very regional. If we had PR the situation would be different but we don't. If we did have PR the parties would likely break down into smaller parties.

This is not a nomal downswing for the Republicans in the US nor the Conservatives in Canada on a federal level in both cases. The US senate strengthens Republicans but even with that they are losing. Social conservatism is over. It's not coming back. Republicans and Conservatives are heavily dependant on them. They can't win without them and they have fed the extremism and the culture war narrative.

Climate change and income inequality require government action. The Conservative mantra of lower taxes minimal government involvement is obviously completely inadequate. The Liberals are also inadequate but the talk a good game.

The Conservative problem is structural and if you read the Conservative pundits they see it too. It isn't a matter of the leader. It's the members. They will not accept a platform that would appeal to Ontario/Quebec.

They are still nursing the grudge on equalization payments and Quebec's refusal to accept pipelines.

Speak of the devil, here is another...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-conservative-dilemma...

Many on the right gripe that the media are biased toward the Liberals. They might consider that their real problem is that the Canadian people are biased.

They don’t normally align with conservative values. That could well be case today because owing to the pandemic and the climate crisis, big government is more in demand than usual. So is, given Canada’s increasingly diverse make-up, the party that embraces multiculturalism.

Today’s Conservatives tilt against the zeitgeist. Since the demise of the old Progressive Conservatives, they are a party anchored further on the right, entrenched on the Prairies but nowhere else. They’ve become a lost cause in Quebec, where voters are more inclined to social-democratic formations....

When Conservatives win it is usually attributable to fatigue with Liberal hegemony....

Modern history shows parties governing in roughly 10-year stretches. The Trudeau Liberals have been in power for six, suggesting the fatigue factor likely won’t do it for the Conservatives this time. To stop the Liberals they’ll need a series of fortuitous campaign surprises. Otherwise the beat goes on. Otherwise, the natural governing party wins again.

By the time the Liberals lose, the NDP will be the natural alternative not the new righter wing Conservatives. The PCs could have won again but this is not the PCs and there is no danger that they will revert to being the PCs. They chose a shrinking constituency. This was a one way trip but perhaps they had no choice because as the article noted, the majority of Canadians are progressive if not leftist.

Strategically the Conservatives banked on growing social conservatism through immigrants because the majority of immigrants likely are socially conservative because most countries we draw immigrants from are more socially conservative than Canada. They did make some progress in that direction but original Canadian social conservatives are also traditionalists that don't want Canada to change meaning they want Christianity and eurocentrism to maintain cultural dominance. That isn't going to happen.

Thu, 2021-07-29 13:20

#46

melovesproles

We'll see but I think you are making a lot of assumptions that are not sound. While it's true that most Canadians aren't Social Conservatives, that isn't necessarily going to be that important of an issue in the next election. I would bet that it isn't. Your belief that the Social Conservatives are going to turn on O'Toole if he doesn't sufficiently speak to their issues, I don't think will have any real negative impact in terms of seats. Who are they going to turn to? Because the Conservative vote is so inefficient, they can afford to downplay the concerns of that part of their base this election without any real cost while tapping into other Conservative talking points that might be more saleable.

The big danger I see is that if we get a 'backlash' election and I think the potential is definitely there, the Conservatives are the only party in position to take advantage of that with the rest of the parties fighting for the same pool of votes. I wish the NDP was doing a better job of differentiating themselves from the Liberals but so far the messaging has been pretty unspecific and I don't think it's registering.

Thu, 2021-07-29 13:46

#47

Pondering

Social Conservatives aren't going anywhere. They are going to keep an iron grip on the party. They have the money and organizations to do it. Campaign for Life is directly responsible for electing multiple MPs. O'Toole and any other leader can proudly proclaim themselves to be pro-LBGTQ and choice but they cannot win the leadership without promising that MPs will be able to follow their conscience.

Social conservatives don't care if the party wins or loses as long as their MPs win. They take advantage of any election to promote their views. Their perspective is that it is the failure of leaders to promote their views that leads to losing elections. They have no other home, which is what makes them so dangerous to the Conservatives. There are too few social conservatives to win an election, but too many for the Conservatives to get rid of. The members of the Conservative party will not allow the Conservatives to go Liberal Lite.

A backlash election will come. It won't be this election but it will likely be within the next two after that. The NDP will win it just as they almost won the 2015 "backlash" election.

The two primary parties of the next decade and maybe beyond will be the Liberals and the NDP.

The Conservatives will replace the NDP as the third party that doesn't go away but can't win. Unlike the NDP, they will continue shrinking as they become the home of white supremists and anti-abortionists.

Thu, 2021-07-29 17:41

#48

kropotkin1951

The social conservatives are not prominent on the West coast but they do exist just like they exist in Quebec and other parts of the country. In BC the Conservatives have a solid 35% base that are not religious nuts they are just Conservative voters. In the Fraser Valley and some parts of the Interior there are very active born again Christian communities like the Alliance Church. This is where the Conservative's safest BC seats are. However in those ridings they normally poll over fifty percent of the vote so that wing of the party is not as crucial as holding the base throughout the province. In the ridings in the my part of the Island the Conservatives are the competition for the NDP and they have won more often.The voter base is just normal Conservative voters, many who have retired here and vote for the party they have always voted for. We get more right wing military types retiring here than religious nuts.

The Pacific Air Force Command Base is in Comox and we have many ex-military people who retire to the Valley. It is similar to Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke where the NDP's pro-NATO Defence "Critic" has a seat. Esquimalt is the home port for Canada's Pacific Fleet and again many people retire there with connections to the navy. Where I live I don't see the over arching control of the social conservatives in the Conservative party. Most voters go into the booth and mark their ballots for the same party as always. Swing voters decide elections and social conservative just don't swing, it is supposed to be against their religion.

I would really like to know how the social conservatives in Montreal or more importantly Quebec city are going to vote. Since you know your part of the country tell us how the religious fanatics in Quebec city and some rural parts of Quebec are going to vote. You know the voters who are the mainstay for secular niqāb laws while okaying the crucifix in the legislature as a "cultural" symbol. Where are those voters going? Is the Bloc xenophobic enough for them or will the Conservatives pick up some of those people?

Thu, 2021-07-29 19:59

#49

Pondering

My post was not referring specifically to BC conservatives or western conservatives. The party is made up of factions, moderate PC conservatives among them. There are not enough moderate PC conservatives to win power federally. That is why the party had no choice but to dismantle the Progressive Conservative party and surrender to the Reform Conservatives under Harper.

Social conservatives are not leaving the party. They are solidifying their grip. They will continue to support the Conservative Party, loudly, which repels swing voters. The voters the Conservative party can't win without.

Social Conservatives are not a majority in the party but they are big enough to be King maker and to elect pro-choice MPs that are more beholden to them than to the party. It isn't the Conservative Party that gets Derek Sloan elected.

Thu, 2021-07-29 21:24

(Reply to #49) #50

cco

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I would really like to know how the social conservatives in Montreal or more importantly Quebec city are going to vote.

In Montreal, Liberal; in Quebec City, Conservative.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Since you know your part of the country tell us how the religious fanatics in Quebec city and some rural parts of Quebec are going to vote.

Non-Catholic religious fanatics vote Liberal, while Catholic ones tend Conservative.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

You know the voters who are the mainstay for secular niqāb laws while okaying the crucifix in the legislature as a "cultural" symbol.

That's gone, though the "secularism is racism" argument from English Canada is complicated by the fact the only opposition to removing it came from Quebec Liberals who were afraid of losing their main talking point.

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Where are those voters going? Is the Bloc xenophobic enough for them or will the Conservatives pick up some of those people?

O'Toole doesn't appear to be making the slightest effort to appeal to Quebec, so I'd guess the Bloc picks up most of them.

Thu, 2021-07-29 23:25

(Reply to #50) #51

kropotkin1951

cco wrote:
kropotkin1951 wrote:

You know the voters who are the mainstay for secular niqāb laws while okaying the crucifix in the legislature as a "cultural" symbol.

That's gone, though the "secularism is racism" argument from English Canada is complicated by the fact the only opposition to removing it came from Quebec Liberals who were afraid of losing their main talking point.

That was an interesting article as was the one it linked to about the Premier also considering taking down the overt religious symbol in the legislature. Personally I find the idea of having a Catholic symbol in a legislature in Canada in 2021 to be offensive but since it is provincial I can not tell my MLA because she is not an MNA.

I also find it offensive for the state to tell people they are not allowed to express their sincere beliefs in mystical creatures by wearing symbols or specific clothing. I do not subscribe to the idea that normal people feel threatened by someone wearing a cross around their necks or a head dress that likely means they are of the Islamic faith.

This thread was talking about the "social conservatives" everywhere in Canada except Quebec so I thought I could use some background and those article helped. My sister in Ontario votes Conservative because my parents did and she is a Catholic social conservative who doesn't support abortion etc and like my mother is a active member of the CWL.