Manitoba Polls

A Probe Research poll released on June 11th found:

NDP 47%

PC 29%

Libs 14%

Greens 5%

https://www.probe-research.com/sites/default/files/2021-06/210618%20June...

Provincial party support by area of Winnipeg

NDP has a 2-to-1 lead over the Tories in the battleground suburbs

NORTHWEST (n=126)

• NDP: 59%

• PC: 26%

• Liberal: 10%

• Green: 4%

CORE (n=111)

• NDP: 66%

• Liberal: 14%

• PC: 14%

• Green: 8%

NORTHEAST (n=108)

• NDP: 55%

• PC: 21%

• Liberal: 15%

• Green: 6%

SOUTHWEST (n=148)

• NDP: 50%

• PC: 23%

• Liberal: 20%

• Green: 4%

SOUTHEAST (n=104)

• NDP: 47%

• PC: 26%

• Liberal: 19%

• Green: 6%

The 18% June poll lead for the NDP (47%) over the PCs (29%) has largely disappeared in the latest three polls, with the latest poll showing the PCs ahead by 9% after two polls showing the NDP ahead by 7% and 5%. However, the Glover-Stefanson leadership campaign debacle that both sides now agree will go to court to resolve who should be the Premier should once again damage the PCs reputation.

Probe poll Sept.7-20

NDP 42%

PC 35%

Libs 12%

Greens 3%

Angus Reid Sept 29 - Oct. 3

NDP 43%

PC 38%

Libs 11%

Greens 4%

Innovative Research

Sept. 24 - Oct. 5

NDP 32%

PC 41%

Libs 18%

Greens 5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Manitoba_general_election

Probe poll Nov. 23 - Dec. 5       Angus Reid Poll January 2022 (almost no change)

NDP 42%                                         42

PC 37%                                            36

Libs 12%                                           12

Greens 4%                                         3

Others 5%                                         6

The switch from Brian Pallister to new Premier Heather Stefanson has done little to boost the fortunes of Manitoba’s governing Progressive Conservative Party. The PCs find themselves with a six-point deficit in vote intention as one-in-three (36%) Manitobans say they would cast their vote for Stefanson’s party if an election were held tomorrow. Manitobans are next scheduled to head to the polls in 2023.

Manitoban’s criticism of the handling of the COVID-19 response has carried over from Pallister to Stefanson, as detractors say the government could do more to contain the spread of the virus. Stefanson recently shuffled her cabinet, adding an additional minister to the health portfolio.

Two-in-five (42%) of Manitobans say they would vote for the NDP led by Wab Kinew, who accused the government of giving up on fighting COVID-19 in a impassioned plea to Manitobans to keep following public health restrictions.

One-in-eight (12%) say they would vote for the Liberal Party:

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022.01.20_provincial_p...

The latest poll (Probe Research March 9-21, 2022) has 
NDP 44% +2

PCs 34% -3

Liberals 15% +3

Greens 2% -2

Others 5% +1

The gap between the opposition New Democrats and governing Progressive Conservatives continues to widen in both Winnipeg and the rest of the province, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds. 

As the spring session of the Manitoba Legislature gets underway, the NDP enjoys the support of 44 per cent decided and leaning Manitoba voters (+2% vs. December 2021). Support for Premier Heather Stefanson and the governing PCs has slipped slightly (from 37% to 34%) while the Manitoba Liberals have experienced a slight bump in support province-wide (+3% to 15%). Seven per cent prefer a party not represented in the Legislature, including two percent who would vote for a Green Party candidate (-2% vs. December). Overall, 16 per cent of Manitobans are undecided on which party to support.

In Winnipeg, the NDP now has the support of more than one-half of decided or leaning voters (52%, +2 vs. December), with the Liberals also seeing an uptick in support (18%, +3%) at the expense of the PCs (23%, -4%). The NDP has a significant lead in all areas of Winnipeg, with the Liberals slightly ahead of the PCs in southwest Winnipeg – which includes the long-time constituency of Fort Whyte, which the PCs narrowly retained over the Liberals in a by-election on March 22.

Outside Winnipeg, meanwhile, more than one-half (51%) continue to back the PCs, with NDP support up slightly since December (31%, +3%).

The PCs’ long-standing advantage over the NDP among older voters has eroded, with the two parties virtually tied in support among those aged 55 and over (37% and 39% respectively). The NDP also continues to hold a massive edge in support among female voters, as well as among younger adults and Indigenous and racialized Manitobans.

https://www.probe-research.com/polls/gap-between-ndp-pcs-widens-march-20...

Stephanson is at the bottom of the Premier Performance poll. On the bright side she has climbed 4% to the majestic height of 25%, but galaxies away from another new Premier, Nova Scotia's Tim Houston. 

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson faces similar levels of disapproval – two-thirds (64%) [to Jason Kenney]

. One-quarter (25%) approve, the lowest approval among premiers in the country. The PC government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dog Stefanson, who was health minister when the third wave overwhelmed Manitoba’s intensive care units. She’s continued in a tradition of Manitoban officials deflecting blame by using the phrase “coulda, woulda, shoulda” – dismissing criticism as 20/20 hindsight. Manitoba’s pandemic premier tandem of Stefanson and her predecessor Brian Pallister received a passing grade on their handling of COVID-19 from one-in-five (20%) of Manitobans, the fewest constituents of any provincial leader.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-performance-march/

Premier Stefanson at 23% ranks dead last by a considerable margin in Premier popularity, even being beaten by Kenney by 9%, despite his quitting after only getting 51% support within the UCP Premier review. 

If familiarity breeds contempt, that does not bode well for Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson. Since ascending to the premier’s seat in the wake of Brian Pallister’s resignation, no higher than one-quarter of Manitobans have approved of Stefanson. In the last two quarters, two-in-five have strongly disapproved of her performance as premier. Lately, she’s come under criticism for Manitoba’s minimum wage, which will be the lowest in the country by the fall. Her response is that the current labour shortage should raise the wage itself, a stance panned by labour leaders in the province.

Meanwhile, Stefanson has been accused of regularly dodging questions from the media and opposition MLAs in the legislature. There is still over a year before she faces an election, however, which is scheduled for Oct. 3, 2023 at the latest.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-performance-june-2022/

Another June poll, this one by Angus Reid, showed a tight race with NDP up only 2% on the PCs compared to the 10% NDP lead in the Probe June poll in post #32. 

NDP 40% (tied compared with March Angus Reid poll)

PCs 38% (-1 compared with March Angus Reid poll)

Liberals 13% (-1 compared with March Angus Reid poll)

Greens 3% (tied compared with March Angus Reid poll)

Others 6% (+2 compared with March Angus Reid poll)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Manitoba_general_election

Can Stefanson, already the lowest in premier popularity, fall even lower? Yes, according to the latest Angus Reid poll!

Stefanson’s struggle continues

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in early September to discuss key areas of cooperation, as well as contentious policy disagreements. Stefanson has criticized the federal carbon tax, asking the government to temporarily suspend it amid inflation concerns. Stefanson’s government recently announced an $87-million package to aid families and seniors with benefit cheques and increases in government assistance in the coming weeks. Whether that aid package will prove politically beneficial remains to be seen. For now, Stefanson continues to be the least approved-of leader in the country. One-in-five (22%) Manitoba residents say they approve of her performance.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-september-2022/

Manitoba's Premier Stefanson continues to rank dead last in Premier popularity as she has since assuming power. She's down so long in the polls that 26% looks like up from her last ranking at 22%.

Sad solstice for Stefanson

The political year comes to and end in the same place it started for Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson – at the bottom of the ARI approval ratings. Earlier this month Stefanson announced $200 million in spending to add 2,000 health care professionals to the province, which, like the rest of the country, has faced immense challenges in this area.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-performance-dec-2022/

josh wrote:

Manitoba Provincial Polling:

NDP: 46% (+15)
PC: 35% (-12)
LIB: 13% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-3)
Others: 3%

Probe Research / December 5, 2022 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone

(% Change With 2019 Provincial Election)

Below is more on the results of this Probe poll including on the NDP's 28% "astronomical" (according to the pollster) lead in Winnipeg:

Quote:

The New Democratic Party remains on top, at 46 per cent cent. Thirty-five per cent prefer the governing PCs. The NDP gained two percentage points, while the PCs lost two percentage points, since the last poll, which was taken in September. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
The results of the quarterly survey, conducted among 1,000 adults in Manitoba between Nov. 22 and Dec. 5, are pretty much what pollster Scott MacKay said he had expected. “You can have policy announcements here and there that some odd person might notice. But unless there is quite a major, major development or policy positions or some announcements with real teeth, I don’t think people really notice them,” the Probe president and founder said Friday. My expectation… was that there would be no change. And there we are.”

The PCs have been in a slump since December 2020 — nine months after the global pandemic was declared — when the NDP first overtook them in the polls. Since then, PC poll numbers have dropped while support for the NDP has increased.

“I’ve never seen a governing party, in 30 years of watching polling, so low in the polls for such a long period of time,” said University of Manitoba political studies Prof. Christopher Adams.

In Winnipeg, NDP support increased slightly to 55 per cent, up from 52 per cent in September. Support for the PCs was 27 per cent — up two points from the last quarter. The 28-point gap between the NDP and the PCs in Winnipeg is “astronomical,” Adams said.
The NDP has a sizeable lead in all parts of the city, except for the northwest, where it’s just one point. “The PCs really don’t have any fortress in Winnipeg right now,” said Adams.
Winnipeg has the most seats in the legislature, so the winning party needs to take the city.

Having the first female leader sworn in as premier hasn’t helped the PCs with female voters in the city, polling shows. In 2021, the PCs replaced their unpopular leader, Brian Pallister, with Stefanson, who has turned out to be just as unpopular.

“The gap between between the PCs and the NDP is just astonishing for women,” Adams said. In Winnipeg, 66 per cent of women support the NDP versus 19 per cent for the PCs. “That’s just stunning.” Forty-two per cent of men, who typically favour the PCs, prefer the NDP, while just 36 per cent of Winnipeg men prefer the PCs. “The PCs are only doing well outside of Winnipeg — 49 per cent versus 32 for the NDP. That’s the only place that they look like they would be winning seats in the next election if this poll were to hold,” said Adams.

Manitoba Liberals, meanwhile, have had a four-point drop in Winnipeg since September, to 15 per cent. “They’ve sort of had a failure to launch, as well,” MacKay said.

Stefanson remains the least popular premier in the country as the election in October draws ever closer. 

In Manitoba, Premier Heather Stefanson continues to rate among the lowest approved-of leaders in the country at 25 per cent. Fortunately for Stefanson and the Progressive Conservative government, the provincial election is not expected until October. As time ticks along on a potential political turnaround, Stefanson has announced a reduction in personal income tax, alongside billions in health-care spending in her government’s election-year budget.

https://angusreid.org/premiers-approval-march-2023/

PCs, trailing in polls 44% to 38% to the NDP, have 31 candidates selected, while NDP has 37 candidates, Liberals 9 and Greens 7.

Less than six months from a scheduled provincial election, the governing Progressive Conservative Party and the Opposition New Democratic Party have selected their candidates in most of the competitive races where Manitoba's election will likely be won and lost.

The Progressive Conservatives will have nominated 31 of their 57 candidates by the end of the week, mainly in the Winnipeg constituencies the PCs already hold, as well as in rural strongholds. The party won 36 seats in the last election.

The New Democrats, favoured in public-opinion polls for two years, have selected 37 candidates, including most Winnipeg seats and the swing seats in rural Manitoba they're trying to win back. The NDP won 18 seats in the 2019 election. ...

"It seems to me that a lot of seats that are safe for both the PCs and the NDP are already full," said Royce Koop, a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba. Some safe seats are still vacant — such as Morden-Winkler and Brandon West for the Progressive Conservatives — but many remaining openings for the two parties are in seats they'll struggle to win. ...

The Tories have only nominated two candidates in seats currently held by the NDP, while the New Democrats have seat openings in Winnipeg and parts of rural Manitoba they don't traditionally hold.

Koop suggested the parties may need time to find candidates willing to stick through challenging races. Koop said the earliest nominations can signal which seats a party is prioritizing. 

Earlier this year the PC party endured the narrative that its MLAs were fleeing a sinking shipwhen 14 of 36 caucus members announced they wouldn't run again. However, most PC MLAs in Winnipeg are seeking re-election, and some of them are in hotly-contested seats. "The fact that there are a lot of PC incumbents sticking around in Winnipeg suggests that maybe the party's polling is more optimistic than the data we're getting," Koop said. "I'm sure it's going to be a race, it's going to be competitive, but it might not be a complete blowout for the NDP in the way that we think it will be." ...

On the other hand, the PCs have only nominated two candidates in NDP-held ridings, which reflects the limited opportunities for the Tories to steal, Koop said....

Meanwhile, the NDP had its candidates selected in most competitive races since last fall — one year from the scheduled Oct. 3 vote. "The NDP is trying to get ahead of the game," Koop said. "They have a really strong shot at winning this coming election and so they're getting their candidates in place and the candidates are active," he said, referring to their door-knocking, appearances at public events and social media profiles. One cost to filing seats early is cutting off opportunities for high-profile candidates, Koop said. Many leftover seats aren't easily winnable.

Tim Johnson, the NDP's provincial secretary, said the party has benefited from getting candidates in place early. It's given members of the public somebody to turn to, especially in districts where the PCs have yet to nominate a candidate.  The NDP didn't want to "do what some other political parties might do, where they keep their line in the lake longer so you can catch bigger fish," Johnson said. "We want to make sure we have candidates out there doing the work because elections are won on the ground. They're won by people talking to their neighbours."

NDP candidates include former party cabinet minister Ron Kostyshyn in Dauphin, former Winnipeg School Division trustee Jennifer Chen in Fort Richmond and a number of teachers, including Mike Moyes, who will again challenge the PC's Rochelle Squires in a competitive south Winnipeg race.

The existing NDP MLAs are all running for re-election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/progressive-conservative-ndp-can...

With the NDP well ahead in the Manitoba election polls, the Cons are using an outside Saskatchewan group to attack the NDP and NDP leader Wab Kinew by trying to connect him to the Liberals and Trudeau. The NDP asserts this violates election rules because "third-party advertisers that spend more than $2,500 were required to register with Elections Manitoba". Con Premier Stefanson, of course, claims to know nothing about the ads. 

Manitoba Liberals and New Democrats say a series of attack ads launched by a Regina-based political action committee with ties to Saskatchewan conservatives amounts to interference in the upcoming election in this province. Both parties accuse Manitoba Progressive Conservatives of colluding with the extraprovincial group, while the NDP has filed two complaints with Elections Manitoba over what it claims are violations of rules governing third-party advertising.

The Canada Growth Council, a non-profit political action committee formed in 2019 to campaign against federal Liberal candidates, has taken out billboards in Winnipeg featuring Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "Can't afford these two? Imagine adding Kinew," reads the billboard ad.

The Canada Growth Council is also behind a mass-message campaign that sent images of attack ads as well as text messages to Manitoba phone numbers this week. The ads compare Kinew's policies to those of Singh and Trudeau, claiming Kinew would distribute "free heroin and hard drugs for criminals" if elected Manitoba's premier on Oct. 3 and would also defund the police.

The text messages refer to Kinew as "a convicted criminal" and state the NDP leader is "in an alliance" with Singh and Trudeau. "We can't afford four years of their woke policies that will lead to more crime, higher taxes and the NDP driving our economy into the ground ... just like last time!" reads the text messages. "We can't trust Wab, Justin and Jagmeet to run our province."

Adrien Sala, the NDP MLA for St. James, called the ads disgusting and accused Manitoba PCs of working with the Canada Growth Council. Current and past directors of the political action committee include former Saskatchewan Party officials, according to corporate records. "Manitobans want free open and fair elections. Instead, what we're seeing is this big-money, third-party, out-of-province organization spending thousands and thousands of dollars on billboards and advertisements and they appear to be doing that illegally in partnership with the [Progressive] Conservative Party of Manitoba," Sala said Thursday in an interview.

CBC News reached out to the Canada Growth Council through the number provided in its text message but did not hear back. CBC News also left messages for company director Dale Richardson, a former Saskatchewan Party communications director, via phone, email and Twitter direct message.

Neither Manitoba's PC caucus nor the party itself are involved with the Canada Growth Council, PC caucus spokesperson Cameron Eason said in a statement.

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson said she too has no knowledge of any interaction between the PCs and the Canada Growth Council.

Stefanson said she received the text message but deleted it. "I receive so many messages and it is what it is. I did not look at it one way or another," adding any entity can engage in free expression.

According to Manitoba's Election Financing Act, there are rules governing third-party advertising this close to an election. As of June 7, third-party advertisers that spend more than $2,500 were required to register with Elections Manitoba, communications director Mike Ambrose said in an interview.

The Canada Growth Council's failure to do so constitutes a violation of that rule, charged NDP secretary Tim Johnson in a letter to elections commissioner Bill Bowles. "Elections should be free, open and fair in our province. But a right-wing, out-of-province group funded by secret donors — persons and possibly corporation, both inside Canada and possibly abroad — is spending thousands of dollars to illegally interfere in Manitoba's elections in the legislatively defined pre-election period," Johnston wrote in the letter.

In a separate letter of complaint, Johnson alleged the PCs are working in concert with the Canada Growth Council, in contravention of a different section of Manitoba's Election Financing Act. Johnson makes that claim on the basis the Saskatchewan entity's website once belonged to the federal Conservative Party and former Conservative MP Candice Bergen is working on the Manitoba PC re-election campaign. Sala repeated that claim but did not provide any evidence the PCs and the Canada Growth Council are working together.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/manitoba-liberals-ndp-accuse-saska...

Angus Reid Poll June 13, 2023

NDP 44% 

PCs 39% 

Liberals 10% 

Greens 4% 

Others 4% 

Winnipeg 

NDP 54% 

PCs 29% 

Liberals 13% 

Greens 2% 

Others 3% 

Rest of Manitoba 

NDP 28% 

PCs 56% 

Liberals 5% 

Greens 7% 

Others 5% 

Leader Approval/Disapproval
PCs Stefanson 25%/66% (-41%)

Kinew 38%/51% (-13%)

Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election

Poor ratings on cost of living and health care have PCs trailing NDP by five-points (44%-39%)

A long hot summer lies ahead in Canada’s prairies but when temperatures begin to fall Manitoba will likely head into a September election campaign.

With an election pencilled in for Oct. 3, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the New Democratic Party of Manitoba holding a five-point advantage provincewide and a key, substantial lead in Winnipeg over the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba.

If an election were held tomorrow, 44 per cent of Manitobans say they would vote for the provincial New Democratic candidate in their riding, compared to 39 per cent who would support the incumbent Progressive Conservatives led by Heather Stefanson. Wab Kinew’s NDP hold a 25-point advantage in Winnipeg, garnering more than half of the intended vote (54%) compared to 29 per cent for the PCPM. Winnipeg is home to 32 of the 57 seats in the provincial legislature. The Conservatives are strong in the less populated and less seat-rich regions outside of Winnipeg, holding a 56 per cent to 28 per cent lead.

Much of this currently advantageous position for the NDP is driven by overwhelming dissatisfaction with the provincial government of the day. Residents rate cost of living (67%) and health care (57%) as their top two provincial priorities by a wide margin over all other concerns. On each, fewer than one-in-five say the government is doing a good job, including three-in-ten 2019 PCPM voters.

There are, however, many months until election day, and many questions left to be answered. One of which concerns the personal resonance of Kinew. Currently, two-in-five residents (38%) view the NDP leader favourably, while half (51%) offer a negative assessment and one-in-nine remain unsure (11%).

Top issues and performance

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson took over from former Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister in the late summer of 2021 and faced an abbreviated two-year runway toward a scheduled provincial election. Pallister led his party to a majority government in 2019 but had seen both his party’s fortunes and his personal approval diminish before stepping away. Thus far, Stefanson has been unable to reverse that trend, having yet to register a personal approval rating of higher than one-quarter during her tenure, and struggling to find traction among an urban electorate that appears to be set on change.

That said, the months ahead remain key if the incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba is to hold on to its governance, and two core issues will likely drive the outcome. For Manitobans, the cost of living and health care are far and away the top two priorities for the province. This is the case for both those who intend to support the PC and the NDP.

Stefanson announced an $87-million Family Affordability Package last August, and a $200-million Carbon Tax Relief Fund in January. Nonetheless, persistent inflation continues to stymy governments and trouble Canadians from coast-to-coast.

Related: Burdened by debt and rising housing costs, three-in-ten Canadians ‘struggling’ to get by

In April, Manitoba’s leaders took part in a forum to discuss issues facing the province, with health care dominating the discussion. NDP leader Wab Kinew discussed the necessity of rewarding rural medical professionals, while criticizing the Progressive Conservatives for COVID-19 management. Last week, the government announced additional funding for northern health services including the expansion of The Pas Primary Health Care Centre.

Notably, health care is the top issue for potential voters over the age of 54 and close to even with the cost of living for top issue among women:

The Progressive Conservative government will need to rehabilitate its image if electoral success is in the party’s future. On every issue asked – 13 in total – at least half of Manitoba residents say the government is currently doing a poor job.

Compounding this perceived poor performance is the specific assessment across the five top issues in the province. On the top four issues, at least 73 per cent of residents offer a negative appraisal. On the fifth – the deficit – 59 per cent say the government has done a poor job.

The leaders

Stefanson’s struggle to garner positive public opinion has been well-documented, but she is joined in majority negative territory by NDP leader Wab Kinew. Half (51%) of residents say they view Kinew unfavourably, though two-in-five (38%) say they hold a positive view of him.

Note: Approval was asked of Stefanson, while favourability was asked of Kinew.

Kinew resonates better with women (47%) than men (28%), while the reverse is true for Stefanson. Kinew also holds an advantage in terms of personal appeal with all age groups:

While near-unanimous disapproval among 2019 NDP voters is perhaps unsurprising, two-in-five (44%) who voted for the PC in that election say they disapprove of Stefanson to this point.

Comparatively, Kinew’s favourability within the group that supported his party in 2019 registers at approximately four-in-five:

Vote intention

One full season yet separates Manitobans and election day, which helps to explain why one-in-five residents (18%) are unable or unwilling to say which party they will support. Including those who are undecided and those who say they will likely not vote, the NDP of Manitoba holds a six-point advantage over the PCs:

This fulsome picture of the electorate is important, given what is says about vote retention. Looking at those who supported each party in 2019, the NDP looks to be retaining 85 per cent of its voters, while the Conservatives are at a 22-point deficit with this measure, at 63 per cent. That said, 19 per cent of these voters say they are undecided, compared to eight per cent among past NDP voters:

What this all means in terms of current vote intention is that the NDP hold a five-point lead in the province among leaning and decided voters:

This advantage has been relatively steady over the past two years, registering between +1 and +6 over that period and with the party never at a deficit:

Kinew’s party holds an overwhelming advantage in Winnipeg, a region home to three-in-five Manitoba residents. More than half (54%) of Winnipeg resident say they would vote for the NDP, compared to three-in-ten (29%) for the PCs. The reverse is true outside of this major urban centre, with the PCs holding a two-to-one lead:

The PCs demographic advantage is clear, as men prefer the party by 11-points over the NDP. That said, women prefer then NDP by a 19-point margin. As with every election, turnout among younger voters will be a key telltale of the result. Young voters offer the NDP a massive advantage, while older voters, who tend to show up in larger numbers, are divided:

https://angusreid.org/manitoba-2023-election-stefanson-kinew-progressive...