Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva waits in a 15 sq m room in a penitentiary which he himself inaugurated when he was the President (2003-2011) of Brazil. He has been condemned to this cell in Curitiba by a judicial process that has his supporters outraged and his detractors gleeful. A week ago, judges went back and forth over whether he could be released while he appealed a verdict on a corruption case known as Operation Car Wash. WhatsApp messages flashed across Brazil, the measure of the country’s polarisation evident in what was being said. By the end of the day, Mr. Lula remained in jail. His habeas corpus petition was not to be honoured.
Brazil faces a presidential election on October 7, and Mr. Lula is the candidate of the Worker’s Party (PT). It does not matter that he is in prison. The PT is adamant that it is either Mr. Lula or no one; there is no Plan B. An electoral court will decide, by late August, on the merits of allowing Mr. Lula on the ballot. Every poll taken in 2018 has shown him in the lead of his right-wing opponent, Congressman Jair Bolsonaro. There is little indication that Mr. Bolsonaro, who is deeply unpopular, will be able to better Mr. Lula.
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The problem of Mr. Lula then asserted itself. He remained Brazil’s most popular figure. A corruption investigation against him had stalled. Then, based on flimsy evidence, Mr. Lula was hastily found guilty and packed off to prison this April. Even members of the elite agree that there is no evidence against him. But no one wants to come out and say so. Senior politicians, many of whom stand to benefit from Mr. Lula’s erasure from Brazil’s political stage, remain silent.
The elite dragged the judiciary into their messy political world. But the military is in no mood to re-enter the political world directly. General Ernesto Geisel, the second last leader of the dictatorship, has admitted that military rule corrupted the officer corps and ruined morale. It is unlikely that the army will leave the barracks. For the elite, there is no established political figure to take on Mr. Lula. Mr. Bolsonaro is not their candidate. He is a marginal figure who is disliked by many of the elite. His antediluvian comments about minorities make him out of step with the times.
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Time of uncertainty
All that is certain is that conflict is on the agenda in the country. From late July, 11 popular leaders will begin an indefinite hunger strike, with each of them carrying a sign with a name of one of the 11 Supreme Court judges. On August 10, the trade unions have called for a general strike for Mr. Lula. Four hundred thousand peasants will march from across Brazil to the capital in mid-August. Musicians will hold concerts, while celebrities will have an audience with the Pope. The mood is clear: come back Mr. Lula, because the crisis is too confusing and dangerous.
